• 천문학회보
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• 제40권1호
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• pp.84.2-84.2
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• 2015

There are probabilistic forecast models for solar flare occurrence, which can be evaluated by various skill scores (e.g. accuracy, critical success index, heidek skill score, true skill score). Since these skill scores assume that two types of forecast errors (i.e. false alarm and miss) are equal or constant, which does not take into account different situations of users, they may be unrealistic. In this study, we make an evaluation of a probabilistic flare forecast model (Lee et al. 2012) which use sunspot groups and its area changes as a proxy of flux emergence. We calculate daily solar flare probabilities from 1996 to 2014 using this model. Overall frequencies are 61.08% (C), 22.83% (M), and 5.44% (X). The maximum probabilities computed by the model are 99.9% (C), 89.39% (M), and 25.45% (X), respectively. The skill scores are computed through contingency tables as a function of forecast probability, which corresponds to the maximum skill score depending on flare class and type of a skill score. For the critical success index widely used, the probability threshold values for contingency tables are 25% (C), 20% (M), and 4% (X). We use a value score with cost/loss ratio, relative importance between the two types of forecast errors. We find that the forecast model has an effective range of cost/loss ratio for each class flare: 0.15-0.83(C), 0.11-0.51(M), and 0.04-0.17(X), also depending on a lifetime of satellite. We expect that this study would provide a guideline to determine the probability threshold for space weather forecast.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제62권8호
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• pp.1184-1191
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• 2013

Probability of ignition due to arc-fault and energy of the arc-fault for the case of applying serial arc-fault interruption time of 120 V defined in UL 1699 to the voltage of 220 V of domestic condition and also for the case of applying it to the HIV wire type are analyzed. It has been confirmed that when the arc-fault occurs under 5 A, 10 A, and 20 A. Probability of ignition for the three different current conditions is 0.74(74%), 0.48(48%), and 0.32(32%) respectively for respective interruption time within 1 sec, 0.4 sec, and 0.2 sec. We discover that when we apply the same arc interruption time for 120 V defined in UL 1699 to the domestic environment of 220 V. The probability of ignition increases from 1.5% for 120 V condition to as much as 74% for 220 V condition. Conclusively, if we apply the standard for the serial arc-fault interruption time defined in UL 1699 for 120 V to the domestic condition of 220 V, the fire prevention effect of electric fire due to arc-fault equal to that of UL standard of 120 V can not be achieved.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.743-752
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• 2004

In this paper, we develop the Bayesian model selection procedure using the reference prior for comparing two nested model such as the independent and intraclass models using the distance or divergence between the two as the basis of comparison. A suitable criterion for this is the power divergence measure as introduced by Cressie and Read(1984). Such a measure includes the Kullback -Liebler divergence measures and the Hellinger divergence measure as special cases. For this problem, the power divergence measure turns out to be a function solely of $\rho$, the intraclass correlation coefficient. Also, this function is convex, and the minimum is attained at $\rho=0$. We use reference prior for $\rho$. Due to the duality between hypothesis tests and set estimation, the hypothesis testing problem can also be solved by solving a corresponding set estimation problem. The present paper develops Bayesian method based on the Kullback-Liebler and Hellinger divergence measures, rejecting $H_0:\rho=0$ when the specified divergence measure exceeds some number d. This number d is so chosen that the resulting credible interval for the divergence measure has specified coverage probability $1-{\alpha}$. The length of such an interval is compared with the equal two-tailed credible interval and the HPD credible interval for $\rho$ with the same coverage probability which can also be inverted into acceptance regions of $H_0:\rho=0$. Example is considered where the HPD interval based on the one-at- a-time reference prior turns out to be the shortest credible interval having the same coverage probability.

• 한국임상수의학회지
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.421-426
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• 2010

In view of free from bluetongue (BT) in the domestic cattle population in Korea, the key of quarantine testing for BT virus (BTV) infection is detection of cattle previously exposed to the virus. The objective of this study was to estimate the probability of detecting a cattle infected with BTV using a stochastic modeling analysis of existing quarantine testing data. Three testing scenarios were considered in this study: serological testing of all animals in all imported lots (scenario 1), serological testing of a sample of cattle from all imported lots (scenario 2), and serological testing of 50% of imported lots (scenario 3). In scenario 2 and 3, it was assumed that cattle were sampled (sample size) within each lot to detect 5% of the cattle in each lot with a 95% confidence, taking into account diagnostic sensitivity of the ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay). The model output was the total number of BTV-infected cattle and the prevalence of BTV infection in imported cattle from the US, Australia, Canada and Japan. Compared to the scenario 1, the probability of detecting a BTV-infected cattle was estimated to be 19% and 1.6% in scenario 2 and 3, respectively. Furthermore, the analyses showed a 95% confidence that BTV prevalence was less or equal to $9.7{\times}10^{-4}$ (median = $1.5{\times}10^{-5}$), indicating that, for the scenario 2 and 3 with serological testing for a sample of cattle, the risk of introducing an exotic strain of BTV into Korea through the importation of live cattle would not be acceptable.

• 천문학회보
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.80.1-80.1
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• 2016

There are probabilistic forecast models for solar flare occurrence, which can be evaluated by various skill scores (e.g. accuracy, critical success index, heidek skill score, and true skill score). Since these skill scores assume that two types of forecast errors (i.e. false alarm and miss) are equal or constant, which does not take into account different situations of users, they may be unrealistic. In this study, we make an evaluation of a probabilistic flare forecast model [Lee et al., 2012] which use sunspot groups and its area changes as a proxy of flux emergence. We calculate daily solar flare probabilities from 2011 to 2014 using this model. The skill scores are computed through contingency tables as a function of forecast probability, which corresponds to the maximum skill score depending on flare class and type of a skill score. We use a value score with cost/loss ratio, relative importance between the two types of forecast errors. The forecast probability (y) is linearly changed with the cost/loss ratio (x) in the form of y=ax+b: a=0.88; b=0 (C), a=1.2; b=-0.05(M), a=1.29; b=-0.02(X). We find that the forecast model has an effective range of cost/loss ratio for each class flare: 0.536-0.853(C), 0.147-0.334(M), and 0.023-0.072(X). We expect that this study would provide a guideline to determine the probability threshold and the cost/loss ratio for space weather forecast.

• 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.25-33
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• 2008

In this paper, the transmit power minimization for Poisson distributed wireless ad-hoc relay networks in Rayleigh fading channels is considered. We investigate two power allocation methods one is a minimum power allocation (MPA) strategy and the other is an equal outage power allocation (EOPA) strategy. We analyze the total transmit power of two allocation methods under the given end-to-end outage probability constraint. Our results show that the MPA achieves more power saving than EOPA, and the power saving is more significant as the number of relay nodes increases.

• 대한전자공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전자공학회 2002년도 ITC-CSCC -1
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• pp.281-284
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• 2002

Error resilience for image coding is an important component of multimedia communication system. Error resilience schemes address loss recovery from the compression perspective. Multiple description coding (MDC) is one of the error resilience techniques promising for robust video transmission. It is the way to achieve tradeoff description such as scalar quantization, correlating transform and the quantized frame expansion. In this paper, we consider Multiple Description Scalar Quantization (MDSQ) to wavelet domain. Conventional MDSQ schemes considered description with equal weights in each sub-bands. But, we can see that the each sub-bands is unequal contribution to whole image quality. Therefore, we experiment the multiple design MDSQ table to make probability of zero index high, which gives high efficiency in arithmetic symbol coder. We also compare our proposed method with the conventional methods and show improved performance in terms of redundancy-rate-distortion.

• 한국조명전기설비학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국조명전기설비학회 1996년도 추계학술발표회논문집
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• pp.125-129
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• 1996

This study describes that electrical breakdown of liquid nitrogen which is influenced with bubble has been investigated as liquid nitrogen is used coolant of high temperature(T/sub c/) superconductivity. In order to investigate breakdown of liquid nitrogen, we formed electrode system of parallel and vertical configuration toward gravitutional direction. In case of changing with electrode configuration of equal electrode and gap spacing in uniform and nonuniform electric field bubble behavior is changed. In result of that, breakdown voltage is changed. Therefore, this study proved that electrode configuration must be formed the smallest existing probability of bubble between two electrodes in order to increase breakdown strength of liquid nitrogen at atmosphere pressure.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.31-39
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• 1999

A new approximation method for finding the steady-state probabilities of the number of customers present in queueing systems with Poisson arrivals and two servers with different deterministic service times with infinite waiting room capacity is developed. The major assumption made for the approximation is that the residual service times of the servers have mutually independent uniform distributions with densities equal to the reciprocals of the respective service times. The method reflects the heterogeneity of the servers only through the ratio of their service times, irrespective of the actual magnitudes and difference. The transition probability matrix is established and the steady-state probabilities are found for a variety of traffic intensities and ratios of the two service times; also the mean number of customers present in the system and in the queue, and server utilizations are found and tabulated. The method was validated by simulation and turned out to be very sharp.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.95-108
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• 1991

For the case where the lifetime at a constant stress level has exponential distribution, optimal accelerated life test plans are developed under the assumptions of intermittent inspection and Type I censoring. In a optimal plan, the low and high stress levels, the proportion of test units allocated and the inspection times at each stress are determined such that the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of logarithmic transformed mean at the use condition is minimized. In addition to the optimal plan in which numerical technique to solve the set of nonlinear equations must be employed to determine inspection times at each stress level, we also propose another plans which employ equally-spaced or equal probability inspection schemes at two overstress levels of corresponding optimal one. For both optimal and proposed plans, computational results indicate that the asymptotic variance of the estimated mean at the use stress is insensitive to number of inspections at overstress levels for the range of parameter values considered.