• Title/Summary/Keyword: environmental uncertainty

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Warm Season Hydro-Meteorological Variability in South Korea Due to SSTA Pattern Changes in the Tropical Pacific Ocean Region (열대 태평양 SSTA 패턴 변화에 따른 우리나라 여름철 수문 변동 분석)

  • Yoon, Sun-kwon;Kim, Jong-Suk;Lee, Tae-Sam;Moon, Young-IL
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.49-63
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    • 2016
  • In this study, we analyzed the effects of regional hydrologic variability during warm season (June-September) in South Korea due to ENSO (El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation) pattern changes over the Tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO). We performed composite analysis (CA) and statistical significance test by Student's t-test using observed hydrologic data (such as, precipitation and streamflow) in the 113 sub-watershed areas over the 5-Major River basin, in South Korea. As a result of this study, during the warm-pool (WP) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ year shows a significant increasing tendency than normal years. Particularly, during the cold-tongue (CT) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ decaying years clearly decreasing tendency compared to the normal years was appeared. In addition, the La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ years tended to show a slightly increasing tendency and maintain the average year state. In addition, from the result of scatter plot of the percentage anomaly of hydrologic variables during warm season, it is possible to identify the linear increasing tendency. Also the center of the scatter plot shows during the WP El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ year (+17.93%, +26.99%), the CT El $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ year (-8.20%, -15.73%), and the La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ year (+8.89%, +15.85%), respectively. This result shows a methodology of the tele-connection based long-range water resources prediction for reducing climate forecasting uncertainty, when occurs the abnormal SSTA (such as, El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ and La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$) phenomenon in the TPO region. Furthermore, it can be a useful data for water managers and end-users to support long-range water-related policy making.

A Study on Developing a Model for Cancer Damage Cost Due to Risk from Benzene in Ulsan Metropolitan City (울산 지역에서 대기중 벤젠으로 인한 암 사망 손실비용 추정 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Yong-Jin;Kim, Ye-Shin;Shin, Dong-Chun;Shin, Young-Chul
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.49-82
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    • 2004
  • The study aimed to evaluate cancer damage cost due to risk from benzene inhalation. We performed health risk assessment based on US EPA guideline to estimate annual population risk in Ulsan metropolitan city. Also, we estimated a willingness-to-pay amount for reducing a cancer mortality rate to evaluate a value of statistical life. We combined the annual population risk and the value of statistical life to calculate the cancer damage cost. In the health risk assessment, we applied the benzene unit risk ($2.2{\times}10^{-6}{\sim}7.8{\times}10^{-6}$) in the US EPA'S Integrated Risk Information System to assess the annual population risk. Average concentration of benzene in ambient air is $7.88{\mu}g/m^3$(min: 1.16~max: $23.32{\mu}g/m^3$). We targeted an exposure population of 516,641 persons who aged over 30 years old. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation for uncertainty analysis, we evaluated that the population risk of benzene during ten years in Ulsan city is 2.90 persons (5 percentile: 0.32~95 percentile: 9.11persons). And the monthly average WTP for 5/1,000 cancer mortality reduction during ten years is 14,852 Won(95% C.I: 13,135~16,794 Won) and the implied VSL is 36 million Won(95% C.I: 30~40 million Won). Cancer damage cost due to risk from benzene inhalation during 10 years in Ulsan city is about 104 million Won(5 percentile: 13~95 percentile: 328 million Won). Health benefit cost to reduce a cancer mortality risk of benzene is about 50 million Won is Ulsan metropolitann city. But, it is very important that this cost is not for all health damage cost of cancer mortality in some area. We just recommended a model for evaluating a cancer risk reduction, so we must re-evaluate an integrated application of total VOCs damage cost including benzene.

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A Study on the Effect of the Bidding Stage Factors of Logistics Outsourcing Service on Trust, Cooperation and Service Satisfaction (물류아웃소싱 서비스의 입찰단계 요인이 신뢰, 협력 및 서비스 만족도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Nam-Seung;Song, Sang-Hwa
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.19-36
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    • 2020
  • The bidding phase for logistics outsourcing services is critical for both shippers and logistics companies. According to the logistics bidding phase, the shipper should provide logistics operation information to logistics companies to resolve uncertainty. In addition, the logistics company can win the contract volume that was placed in the bid by expressing their experience and know-how, and proposing to share the risks and benefits of the shipper's logistics operation. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the factors that can be identified during the bidding phase for logistics outsourcing and how these factors affect the satisfaction of logistics outsourcing services. Based on the factors identified in the preceding studies on logistics outsourcing partnership factors and those on logistics outsourcing determinants, a survey was conducted on experts engaged in logistics companies, performing logistics for domestic shippers and analyzed using Smart-PLS. This study presents the following implications. First, in the logistics bidding phase, the shipper should provide its logistics operation information to logistics firms to resolve uncertainties. Details An in-depth explanation of the operation details will be presented via the bidding presentation, and on-site tours of manufacturing plants and logistics centers should also be carried out if necessary. Second, in the bidding phase, logistics companies should appeal through proposals to their competitiveness, such as experience and knowledge of the logistics of the shipper, and also consider alliances with other logistics companies to supplement their insufficient logistics services. Third, logistics companies should make proposals to share profits and risks through logistics outsourcing during the bidding phase, propose accepting risks from environmental uncertainties of the shipper within its capacity to an acceptable extent, and share the benefits of carrying out the shipper's logistics.

Reliability Based Stability Analysis and Design Criteria for Reinforced Concrete Retaining Wall (신뢰성(信賴性) 이론(理論)에 의한 R.C.옹벽(擁壁)의 안정해석(安定解析) 및 설계규준(設計規準))

  • Cho, Tae Song;Cho, Hyo Nam;Chun, Chai Myung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.71-86
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    • 1983
  • Current R.C. retaining wall design is bared on WSD, but the reliability based design method is more rational than the WSD. For this reason, this study proposes a reliability based design criteria for the cantilever retaining wall, which is most common type of retaining wall, and also proposes the theoretical bases of nominal safety factors of stability analysis by introducing the reliability theory. The limit state equations of stability analysis and design of each part of cantilever retaining wall are derived and the uncertainty measuring algorithms of each equation are also derived by MFOSM using Coulomb's coefficient of the active earth pressure and Hansen's bearing capacity formula. The levels of uncertainties corresponding to these algorithms are proposed appropriate values considering our actuality. The target reliability indices (overturning: ${\beta}_0$=4.0, sliding: ${\beta}_0$=3.5, bearing capacity: [${\beta}_0$=3.0, design for flexure: [${\beta}_0$=3.0, design for shear: ${\beta}_0$=3.2) are selected as optimal values considering our practice based on the calibration with the current R.C. retaining wall design safety provisions. Load and resistance factors are measured by using the proposed uncertainties and the selected target reliability indices. Furthermore, a set of nominal safety factors, allowable stresses, and allowable shear stresses are proposed for the current WSD design provisions. It may be asserted that the proposed LRFD reliability based design criteria for the R.C. retaining wall may have to be incorporated into the current R.C. design codes as a design provision corresponding to the USD provisions of the current R.C. design code.

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The Effects of Leader's Attitude and Job Characteristics on Subordinate's Creative Performance (상사의 태도와 직무 특성이 창의적 성과를 일으키는 과정에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Jeong-Ran
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.129-154
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    • 2014
  • We are making products and services that we didn't easily think or even imagine when young and living using them. Consumer needs become more diversified, markets and technologies are being constantly changed, and corporate global competitiveness is getting intensified. Now, companies that don't change nor create new values cannot survive. The cycle of new products is faster, and therefore corporations should improve previous products continuously or create new values according to such a trend. This era requires 'creativity' for companies to overcome uncertainty and survive. Corporate creativity is not easily activated as financial and physical compensation unlike the work ability or performance. When there is an environment that people with various abilities, experiences and backgrounds can express their opinions freely, it becomes possible. Despite the importance, the studies have focused on creativity education so far instead of the viewpoint of corporate business administration. In addition, most studies have dealt with job characteristics and employees' personality factors rather than the process that is connected to actual performance. In other words, the studies on environmental factors that can lead motivation as situational characteristics of the employee's company in a current non-monetary and non-physical way are very insufficient. Therefore, this study aims to comprehensively examine the process of creating creative performance in the environment inside the company that the employee could approach most closely from the corporate deinstitutional perspective. As the major variables, job characteristics and supervisor's ethical leadership were selected, and the process that is connected to the creative performance was explained by means of motivation necessary to understand creativity of the organization and creative process engagement(CPE). The summary of the verification results is following. First, job characteristics and supervisor's attitude(ethical leadership) had positive effects on intrinsic motivation and creativity process engagement. Second, intrinsic motivation and creativity process engagement had positive effects on creative performance. Third, intrinsic motivation and creativity process engagement had mediated the relationship between job characteristics, supervisor's attitude and intrinsic motivation, creativity process engagement

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A Study on LRFD Reliability Based Design Criteria of RC Flexural Members (R.C. 휨부재(部材)의 L.R.F.D. 신뢰성(信賴性) 설계기준(設計基準)에 관한 연구(研究))

  • Cho, Hyo Nam
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.21-32
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    • 1981
  • Recent trends in design standards development in some European countries and U.S.A. have encouraged the use of probabilistic limit sate design concepts. Reliability based design criteria such as LSD, LRFD, PBLSD, adopted in those advanced countries have the potentials that they afford for symplifying the design process and placing it on a consistent reliability bases for various construction materials. A reliability based design criteria for RC flexural members are proposed in this study. Lind-Hasofer's invariant second-moment reliability theory is used in the derivation of an algorithmic reliability analysis method as well as an iterative determination of load and resistance factors. In addition, Cornell's Mean First-Order Second Moment Method is employed as a practical tool for the approximate reliability analysis and the derivation of design criteria. Uncertainty measures for flexural resistance and load effects are based on the Ellingwood's approach for the evaluation of uncertainties of loads and resistances. The implied relative safety levels of RC flexural members designed by the strength design provisions of the current standard code were evaluated using the second moment reliability analysis method proposed in this study. And then, resistance and load factors corresponding to the target reliability index(${\beta}=4$) which is considered to be appropriate level of reliability considering our practices are calculated by using the proposed methods. These reliability based factors were compared to those specified by our current ultimate strength design provisions. It was found that the reliability levels of flexural members designed by current code are not appropriate, and the code specified resistance and load factors were considerably different from the reliability based resistance and load factors proposed in this study.

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The Moderating Effect of Social Capital between Organizational Slack and Managerial Practices for Open Innovation in Venture SMEs (벤처중소기업의 조직여유와 개방형 경영혁신 간의 관계에서 사회적 자본의 조절효과 연구)

  • Bae, Hoyoung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.73-81
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    • 2015
  • This research is designed to analyze the moderating effect of social capital between organizational slack and managerial practices for open innovation. After controlling the firm size, firm age, and environmental uncertainty, we test two hypotheses. First, we test the hypothesis that organizational slack has a positive effect on managerial practices for open innovation. Especially we focus on the managerial innovation and open innovation because recently managerial innovation and open innovation are more and more important. Second, we test the moderating role of social capital between organizational slack and managerial practices for open innovation. Because social capital is a kind of networking activity, we assume that social capital can contribute to managerial practices for open innovation through the networking activity. For this research, we administered the questionnaire surveys, and got the 250 effective data (companies) in Korea. Then we used the validity, reliability, correlation and multiple regression analysis by means of SPSS 18.0. As a result, we can find the two meaningful results. First, organizational slack, especially not absorbed slack but unabsorbed slack, has positive effect on managerial practices for open innovation. It is because absorbed slack such as excessive facilities, machines, or employees is not useful in managerial practices for open innovation. On the other hand, unabsorbed slack is useful in managerial practices for open innovation because unabsorbed slack such as excessive money or securities is very flexible and active. Taken together, the relationship between managerial practices for open innovation and unabsorbed slack is proven in terms of flexibility. Second, social capital has a moderating effect positively between organizational slack, especially not absorbed slack but unabsorbed slack, and managerial practices for open innovation. A prior study related to the relationship between managerial practices for open innovation and social capital doesn't exist yet, so this analysis result is very meaningful in academic respect. But this research has some limitations. First, this research is analyzed by limited region (Korea) and samples (250 companies), so more global regions and samples are recommended in the future. Second, we focus on managerial practices for open innovation in this paper, so the studies about technological practices for open innovation are recommended in the future.

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Revisiting the cause of unemployment problem in Korea's labor market: The job seeker's interests-based topic analysis (취업준비생 토픽 분석을 통한 취업난 원인의 재탐색)

  • Kim, Jung-Su;Lee, Suk-Jun
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.85-116
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    • 2016
  • The present study aims to explore the causes of employment difficulty on the basis of job applicant's interest from P-E (person-environment) fit perspective. Our approach relied on a textual analytic method to reveal insights from their situational interests in a job search during the change of labor market. Thus, to investigate the type of major interests and psychological responses, user-generated texts in a social community were collected for analysis between January 1, 2013 through December 31, 2015 by crawling the online-community in regard to job seeking and sharing information and opinions. The results of topic analysis indicated user's primary interests were divided into four types: perception of vocation expectation, employment pre-preparation behaviors, perception of labor market, and job-seeking stress. Specially, job applicants put mainly concerns of monetary reward and a form of employment, rather than their work values or career exploration, thus youth job applicants expressed their psychological responses using contextualized language (e.g., slang, vulgarisms) for projecting their unstable state under uncertainty in response to environmental changes. Additionally, they have perceived activities in the restricted preparation (e.g., certification, English exam) as determinant factors for success in employment and suffered form job-seeking stress. On the basis of these findings, current unemployment matters are totally attributed to the absence of pursing the value of vocation and job in individuals, organizations, and society. Concretely, job seekers are preoccupied with occupational prestige in social aspect and have undecided vocational value. On the other hand, most companies have no perception of the importance of human resources and have overlooked the needs for proper work environment development in respect of stimulating individual motivation. The attempt in this study to reinterpret the effect of environment as for classifying job applicant's interests in reference to linguistic and psychological theories not only helps conduct a more comprehensive meaning for understanding social matters, but guides new directions for future research on job applicant's psychological factors (e.g., attitudes, motivation) using topic analysis.

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The Non-Destructive Determination of Heavy Metals in Welding Fume by EDXRF (EDXRF에 의한 용접흄 중의 중금속의 비파괴 정량)

  • Park, Seunghyun;Jeong, Jee Yeon;Ryoo, Jang Jin;Lee, Naroo;Yu, Il Je;Song, Kyung Seuk;Lee, Yong Hag;Han, Jeong Hee;Kim, Sung Jin;Park, Jung sun;Chung, Ho Keun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.229-234
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    • 2001
  • The EDXRF(Energy Dispersive X-ray Fluorescence Spectrometer) technique was applied to the determination of heavy metals in welding fume. The EDXRF method designed in this study was a non-destructive analysis method. Samples were analyzed directly by EDXRF without any pre-treatment such as digestion and dilution. The samples used to evaluate this method were laboratory samples exposed in a chamber connected with a welding fume generator. The samples were first analyzed using a non-destructive EDXRF method. The samples subsequently were analyzed using AAS method to verify accuray of the EDXRF method. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the possibility of the non-destructive analysis of heavy metals in welding fume by EDXRF. The results of this study were as follow: 1.When the samples were collected under the open-face sampling condition, a surface distribution of welding fume particles on sample filters was uniform, which made non-destructive analysis possible. 2. The method was statistically evaluated according to the NIOSH(National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health) and HSE(Health and Safety Executive) method. 3. The overall precision of the EDXRF method Was calculated at 3.45 % for Cr, 2.57 % for Fe and 3.78 % for Mn as relative standard deviation(RSD), respectively. The limits of detection were calculated at $0.46{\mu}g$/sample for Cr, $0.20{\mu}g$/sample for Fe and $1.14{\mu}g$/sample for Mn, respectively. 4. A comparison between the results of Cr, Fe, Mn analyzed by EDXRF and AAS was made in order to assess the accuracy of EDXRF method. The correlation coefficient between the results of EDXRF and AAS was 0.9985 for Cr, 0.9995 for Fe and 0.9982 for Mn, respectively. The overall uncertainty was determined to be ${\pm}12.31%$, 8.64 % and 11.91 % for Cr, Fe and Mn, respectively. In conclusion, this study showed that Cr, Fe, Mn in welding fume were successfully analyzed by the EDXRF without any sample pre-treatment such as digestion and dilution and a good correlation between the results of EDXRF and AAS was obtained. It was thus possible to use the EDXRF technique as an analysis method of working environment samples. The EDXRF method was an efficient method in a non-destructive analysis of heavy metals in welding fume.

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On Using Near-surface Remote Sensing Observation for Evaluation Gross Primary Productivity and Net Ecosystem CO2 Partitioning (근거리 원격탐사 기법을 이용한 총일차생산량 추정 및 순생태계 CO2 교환량 배분의 정확도 평가에 관하여)

  • Park, Juhan;Kang, Minseok;Cho, Sungsik;Sohn, Seungwon;Kim, Jongho;Kim, Su-Jin;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Kang, Mingu;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.251-267
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    • 2021
  • Remotely sensed vegetation indices (VIs) are empirically related with gross primary productivity (GPP) in various spatio-temporal scales. The uncertainties in GPP-VI relationship increase with temporal resolution. Uncertainty also exists in the eddy covariance (EC)-based estimation of GPP, arising from the partitioning of the measured net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) into GPP and ecosystem respiration (RE). For two forests and two agricultural sites, we correlated the EC-derived GPP in various time scales with three different near-surface remotely sensed VIs: (1) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), (2) enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and (3) near infrared reflectance from vegetation (NIRv) along with NIRvP (i.e., NIRv multiplied by photosynthetically active radiation, PAR). Among the compared VIs, NIRvP showed highest correlation with half-hourly and monthly GPP at all sites. The NIRvP was used to test the reliability of GPP derived by two different NEE partitioning methods: (1) original KoFlux methods (GPPOri) and (2) machine-learning based method (GPPANN). GPPANN showed higher correlation with NIRvP at half-hourly time scale, but there was no difference at daily time scale. The NIRvP-GPP correlation was lower under clear sky conditions due to co-limitation of GPP by other environmental conditions such as air temperature, vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture. However, under cloudy conditions when photosynthesis is mainly limited by radiation, the use of NIRvP was more promising to test the credibility of NEE partitioning methods. Despite the necessity of further analyses, the results suggest that NIRvP can be used as the proxy of GPP at high temporal-scale. However, for the VIs-based GPP estimation with high temporal resolution to be meaningful, complex systems-based analysis methods (related to systems thinking and self-organization that goes beyond the empirical VIs-GPP relationship) should be developed.