KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Warm Season Hydro-Meteorological Variability in South Korea Due to SSTA Pattern Changes in the Tropical Pacific Ocean Region

열대 태평양 SSTA 패턴 변화에 따른 우리나라 여름철 수문 변동 분석

  • Yoon, Sun-kwon (Climate Research Department, APEC Climate Center) ;
  • Kim, Jong-Suk (Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Seoul) ;
  • Lee, Tae-Sam (Department of Civil Engineering, Gyeongsang National University) ;
  • Moon, Young-IL (Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Seoul)
  • 윤선권 (APEC 기후센터 연구본부 기후변화연구팀) ;
  • 김종석 (서울시립대학교 공과대학 토목공학과) ;
  • 이태삼 (경상대학교 공과대학 토목공학과) ;
  • 문영일 (서울시립대학교 공과대학 토목공학과, 도시홍수연구소)
  • Received : 2015.03.11
  • Accepted : 2015.09.08
  • Published : 2016.02.01
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Abstract

In this study, we analyzed the effects of regional hydrologic variability during warm season (June-September) in South Korea due to ENSO (El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation) pattern changes over the Tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO). We performed composite analysis (CA) and statistical significance test by Student's t-test using observed hydrologic data (such as, precipitation and streamflow) in the 113 sub-watershed areas over the 5-Major River basin, in South Korea. As a result of this study, during the warm-pool (WP) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ year shows a significant increasing tendency than normal years. Particularly, during the cold-tongue (CT) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ decaying years clearly decreasing tendency compared to the normal years was appeared. In addition, the La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ years tended to show a slightly increasing tendency and maintain the average year state. In addition, from the result of scatter plot of the percentage anomaly of hydrologic variables during warm season, it is possible to identify the linear increasing tendency. Also the center of the scatter plot shows during the WP El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ year (+17.93%, +26.99%), the CT El $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ year (-8.20%, -15.73%), and the La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ year (+8.89%, +15.85%), respectively. This result shows a methodology of the tele-connection based long-range water resources prediction for reducing climate forecasting uncertainty, when occurs the abnormal SSTA (such as, El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ and La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$) phenomenon in the TPO region. Furthermore, it can be a useful data for water managers and end-users to support long-range water-related policy making.

본 연구는 열대 태평양지역 ENSO (El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation) 패턴 변화에 따른 우리나라 여름철(June-September, JJAS) 지역 수문변동 영향 분석을 위하여, 우리나라 5대강 113개 중권역의 강수량과 유출량 자료를 대상으로 합성편차 분석(Composit Analysis, CA)과 Student's t-test에 의한 유의성 검정을 실시하였다. 분석 결과, 유역별로 다소 차이는 있으나 전반적으로 WP (Warm-Pool) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ 해에는 평년에 비하여 강수량과 유출량의 증가 특성이 뚜렷이 나타났으며, CT (Cold-Tongue) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ 해에는 주로 감소하는 경향이, La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ 해에는 다소 증가 또는 평년 상태를 유지하는 것을 분석되었다. 또한 백분위 기후값 편차의 산포도분석 결과 여름철 강수량의 증가/감소에 따른 유출량 증 감의 선형적 분포특성을 확인할 수 있었으며, 산포도의 중심은 WP El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ 해에는 +17.93%, +26.99%, CT El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ 해에는 -8.20%, -15.73%, 그리고 La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ 해에는 +8.89%, +15.85%로 분석되었다. 본 연구의 결과는 El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ 등 열대 태평양 지역 기후현상이 뚜렷한 시기의 우리나라 수자원 장기예측의 불확실성을 줄여 주어 유역차원의 안정적인 중 장기 물공급 전망 등 수방정책지원을 위한 참고자료로 활용이 가능할 것이다.

Keywords

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