• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.25-30
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• 2016

It is critical to forecast the maximum daily and monthly demand for power with as little error as possible for our industry and national economy. In general, long-term forecasting of power demand has been studied from both the consumer's perspective and an econometrics model in the form of a generalized linear model with predictors. Time series techniques are used for short-term forecasting with no predictors as predictors must be predicted prior to forecasting response variables and containing estimation errors during this process is inevitable. In previous researches, seasonal exponential smoothing method, SARMA (Seasonal Auto Regressive Moving Average) with consideration to weekly pattern Neuron-Fuzzy model, SVR (Support Vector Regression) model with predictors explored through machine learning, and K-means clustering technique in the various approaches have been applied to short-term power supply forecasting. In this paper, SARMA and intervention model are fitted to forecast the maximum power load daily, weekly, and monthly by using the empirical data from 2011 through 2013. $ARMA(2,\;1,\;2)(1,\;1,\;1)_7$ and $ARMA(0,\;1,\;1)(1,\;1,\;0)_{12}$ are fitted respectively to the daily and monthly power demand, but the weekly power demand is not fitted by AREA because of unit root series. In our fitted intervention model, the factors of long holidays, summer and winter are significant in the form of indicator function. The SARMA with MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) of 2.45% and intervention model with MAPE of 2.44% are more efficient than the present seasonal exponential smoothing with MAPE of about 4%. Although the dynamic repression model with the predictors of humidity, temperature, and seasonal dummies was applied to foretaste the daily power demand, it lead to a high MAPE of 3.5% even though it has estimation error of predictors.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.1471-1477
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• 2014

This paper addresses the development on supply-demand outlook model of Jeju winter radish and introduces a projection of supply-demand and market prices during 2014-2018 using the model. The supply-demand outlook model is specified as a partial equilibrium model of Jeju winter radish. Each equation in the model is estimated by using the econometric techniques. A review of the model stability is also carried out by the references based on RMSPE, MAPE, and Theil's inequality coefficients. According to the reference of RMAPE, the error rates of the forecasting values of the cultivation ares, production quantity, and consumption quantity show less than 4% and the error rate of market price is below 10%. The cultivation area and production quantity are projected respectively to be increased to 6,650ha and 433,310MT in 2018.

• Archives of design research
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.289-298
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• 2003

The 21st century could be called the age of Experience Economy associated with the importance to external and internal experience of product users. It needs the understanding of customer's needs in new point of view. In the area of design development, it requires the extensive application of experience from traditional method that was based on the style and usability to more advanced concept. To correspond to these changes, we need to explore new customer's value system for knowledge-information design and systematic approaches to experience system. The purpose of this research is to define the concept of 'experience' newly in the importance side of customer's life, form a clear definition of experience design and present the model of application system. Theoretical frameworks of this research are based on the Empiricism and John Dewey's theory. By applying these frameworks make dear the concept of experience concept and reanalysis the meaning and style in the perspective of design. In this process, we can extract the main factors that inducing the experience, create new application system and model again to the field of design. Application model can creates various experiences through supplying different experience style and factors for customer, make customer realize experience object. Experience designs offer optimal experience to users by making a plan and design experience to user's goal.

• Journal of Service Research and Studies
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.57-70
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• 2017

It is anticipated that the employment structure of the whole industry will change drastically as the Fourth Industrial Revolution era arrives. Particularly, there are numerous reseraches that the development of artifical intelligence will promote automation causing jobs in manufacturing industry to decrease; thus, the economy will be reorganized with service-centered jobs, which heavily depend on human ability. This study was conducted to verify the trend-forecasting model based on the theoretical analysis. We analyzed the change in employment structure over the past decades in each country and period to gain insights from the changes in the employment structure caused by the Fourth Industrial Revoltion. The results of this study are as follows: First, we investigaed whether the current economy is moving along the U-shaped model suggested by an existing researcher. As a result of the analysis, the data substantiated that the change of the employment structure is moving along the U-shaped model. It is also suggested that this U-shaped trend is expected to accelerate in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. In the future, more accurate data analyses are needed to verify the model, and additional researches on the change in the employment structed is also needed.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.59-70
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• 2014

In recent years, Chinese government established 4 pilot zones at Shandong, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Fujian. The national marine development pilot zones policy is formed in order to promote development of Chinese marine economy, as if Chinese government selected 4 special economic zones as the policy experiment areas for economic structural reform at the beginning stage of reform and opening-up. This article utilizes the policy-making theory of Incrementalism Model and aims at searching for the essence, historical formation process, implementation state, implications of 4 Chinese marine economic development pilot zones policy. Moreover, the prospect of their future development is analyzed. The marine pilot zone policy has the following features: new development model with advanced industries and sciences & technology, highly civil participation, plural policy goals. These research results would be able to contribute not only to getting better understanding of China's marine industry policy, but also to drawing lessons for the construction of Korea's marine economic special zone in the viewpoint of policy transfer.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.157-165
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• 2016

The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of the shipping industry real economy index on the stock prices of domestic shipping companies. The parameters used in this analysis were the stock price of H Company in South Korea and shipping industry real economy indices including BDI, CCFI and HRCI. The period analysis was from 2012 to 2015. The weekly data for four years of the stock price index of shipping companies, BDI, CCFI, and HRCI were used. The effects of CCFI and HRCI on the stock price index of domestic shipping companies were analyzed using the VAR model, and the effects of BDI on the stock price index of domestic shipping companies were analyzed using the VECM model. The VAR model analysis results showed that CCFI and HRCI had negative effects on the stock price index, and the VECM model analysis results showed that BDI also had a negative effect on the stock price index.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.39-47
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• 2020

There are two kinds of cost estimate system in construction in china. Quota valuation model is a traditional cost estimate system under the unity of quantity and price, which is easier and has been used for decades. But the Quota valuation model becomes increasingly unsuited to the needs of society with the development of market economy. To meet the needs of China's market economy development and construction works in the field of international cooperation, the Bill of Quantities valuation model was introduced in 2003. However, there are still many shortcomings and deficiencies in the course of implementation of Bill of Quantities valuation model. In addition, interest in the Chinese construction market continues to increase in Korea due to the recent new North Korean policy and China's the Belt and Road policy. This paper aims to examine the cost estimate system of public construction works in China, and to provide basic data for deriving future improvement plans by comparing and analyzing it with standard cost estimate system in Korea.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.195-222
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• 2017

This exploratory study analyses the factors, sources and effects of the regional competitive advantage of Jeju Island in Korea in global competition era. The competitive advantage of Jeju Province is analysed with the triple diamond model based on Porter's model for the competitive advantage of nations. The competitive advantage factors of Jeju Province are measured through the competitive advantage of the hospitality industry, which is one of the major industries of Jeju Island. These factors include outstanding natural landscape, domestic hospitality industry workforce, social overhead capital, massive domestic and international tourists, growth of related industries such as duty free shops and casinos, and coincidences such as Jeju Olle trail construction and Chinese government's international travel approval. Since these factors are based on local, domestic and international management resources, this study suggests that obtaining such resources is critical among Jeju hospitality industry in gaining the competitive advantage. Although the competitive advantage of Jeju hospitality industry is increasing, the organic connections with the regional economy are required for improvements on Jeju residents' quality of life. This study examines the factors and origins of competitive advantages on a regional level instead of a national level, and further investigates how the characters and origins of these factors affect the local economy. The results suggest that the triple diamond model is suitable for evaluating the regional competitive advantages.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.141-147
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• 2014

Diffusion model is popular research topic in marketing and economy particularly for the areas of model specification and market size forecasting. In particular, Bass model can explain Roger's innovation diffusion and product life cycle through easy mathematical representation and hence the model has been widely used for the explanation of adopting innovative new products and technologies. Nonetheless, there're only a couple of pioneering researches about semiconductor market, using diffusion models. Consequently, we'd utilise NLS approach diffusion model to estimate the market potential of MOSFET, major switching device for power management of system, and explain the process to industry stakeholders and policy makers for delivery of managerial implication with pragmatic purpose.

• STI Policy Review
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.130-151
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• 2012

Fraunhofer was founded in 1949 and grew into Europe's largest application-oriented research organization. Fraunhofer currently employs over 20,000 members in Germany, is internationally networked, and manages an R&D budget of over 1,8 Billion Euros per year. An important step for Fraunhofer to become an integral component of the German innovation system was the introduction of the Fraunhofer Model of financing based on a performance-related system of financial management. The underlying model of the allocation and distribution of public funding to Fraunhofer that is subsequently allotted to specific research groups is one of the success factors of Fraunhofer. Fraunhofer is proud of its decentralized organizational model. Fraunhofer is comprised of 60 Institutes in Germany working in different fields, under one legal framework, and with a strong brand value. Every Fraunhofer Institute is affiliated with a German University and every institute director simultaneously holds a chair at the affiliated university. It is a challenge for the headquarter organization to balance the intended competition of individual Fraunhofer Institutes with complementarity cooperation in science among Fraunhofer-Institutes, especially when coming from different knowledge domains; however, this goal results in a significant advantage. The unique strengths of Fraunhofer offer system solutions in a world with increasingly complex R&D challenges. While growing to become the largest organization on Europe to focus on applied research it is the challenge to remain an agile organization that is flexible in organizational structure. Fraunhofer has reached a well-recognized position in the European innovation landscape. It is often referred to by science and governments as a role model for innovation policy and a key element of the latest successes in the German economy that has recovered quicker from the latest economic crisis than most other western economies. The paper explains Fraunhofer as an organizational paradigm and its underlying management model to elaborate on the challenges of managing a research organization. We wish to show how it is possible to transfer the management model and philosophy of Fraunhofer to innovation systems with different framework conditions and challenges. A universal conclusion may be drawn based on the description of Fraunhofer; however, changes in existing structures and innovation systems cannot be implemented over night.