• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic threshold

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Tracing Fiscal Sustainability in Malaysia

  • LAU, Evan;LEE, Alvina Syn-Yee
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.91-98
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    • 2021
  • One of the concerns in the economic policy circle is the fiscal sustainability. This current research revisit the notion of fiscal sustainability for Malaysia using the Indicator of Fiscal Sustainability (IFS) developed by Croce and Juan-Ramón (2003) where we employ samples of time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The findings reveal that 40 out of 48 years, during which the calculated IFS algorithm is above the threshold of 1, imply Malaysia was fiscally unsustainable. Despite having been fiscally unsustainable, Malaysia's fiscal stance shows improvement as a result of fiscal consolidation and fiscal reforms during the sample period. This is shown by the improved calculated IFS algorithm on average, which the value improved from 1.465 in 1970-1993 to 1.377 in 1998-2004 and to 1.146 in the 2006-2013. From the policy front, this indicator can serve as a precautionary early warning measure in formulating future fiscal path for Malaysia. This can be executed by targeting debt ratio and shifting the allocation of expenditures away from less efficient toward more growth-enhancing ones, which eventually would regain fiscal space to counter any incoming economic shocks in the future. This can enhance the fiscal transparency and assist in formulating a fiscal policy strategy in Malaysia.

Determination of Economic Injury Levels (EILs) and Control Thresholds (CTs) of Aphis egomae (Hom.: Aphididae) in Green Perilla (들깨진딧물의 경제적 피해수준과 요방제수준 설정에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Yong-Seok;Park, Deok-Gi;Han, Ik-Soo;Choe, Kwang-Ryul
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.45 no.3 s.144
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    • pp.317-325
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    • 2006
  • According to the preceding survey on insect pests of the green perilla, Perilla frutescens var. japonica HARA, The major pests were Aphis egomae Shinji, Pyrausta panopealis (Walker), Tetranychus urticae Koch, Polyphagotarsonemus lotus Banks, Tetranychus kanzawai Kishida at Guemsan, Chungnam, 2004. Aphis egomae causes nearly 100% injury of the green perilla in uncontrolled green houses. A field study was conducted to estimate economic injury levels (EILs) and control thresholds (CTs) for A. egomae injuring green perilla in green houses. Different densities of A. egomae ranged from 1 to 80 aphids per 100 plants in early inoculation. The mean injurying rate of plant was 2.4% to 40.5% at the end of June at differently inoculated levels. The economic loss time calculated by the ratio of cost managing aphid to market price (C/V) (C: cost managing aphid, V: Market price) in early season (from May to 13. June) was 5.8% and in peak season (from 13. June to 30. June) was 9.3%. Economic injury level in early and peak season was 5.3 aphids per plant and economic injury levels in peak season were 0.6 aphids per plant and 7.6% injured rate of plant. The control thresholds calculated by 80% level of economic injury level in peak season were 0.5aphids per plant and 6.1% injury rate of plant, respectively.

Market Structure and Pricing Behavior in the Korean Transportation Fuel Market (국내 수송용 석유제품 시장의 시장구조와 가격행태)

  • Moon, Choon-Geol
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.311-342
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    • 2015
  • We evaluate two main rationales of massive policy intervention of Lee Administration in the Korean transportation fuel market: high market share of domestic refineries, perceived by the Administration as the result of high market concentration, and asymmetry in price adjustment, perceived as the result of collusion. Domestic refineries, huge in capacity and located at seaports, maintain international competitiveness in price. Considering market openness offering preferential treatment to importers, they set domestic prices competitively on the basis of MOPS prices. Yet, the price competitiveness of domestic refineries is so high that they are able to sustain high market share. We confirm that the Korean before-tax consumer prices of gasoline and diesel are lower than Japan's and the weighted averages of 27 EU countries by as much as 159KRW and 21KRW per liter in the case of gasoline and 170KRW and 63KRW in the case of diesel. Price asymmetry is caused by diverse economic and managerial reasons and, as FTC (2005) states, price asymmetry does not immediately imply exercise of market power or collusion. We analyzed price asymmetry in Korea, Japan and 14 EU countries, and found asymmetry in Korea and 11 EU countries in the case of gasoline and in Korea and 8 EU countries in the case of diesel.

A Decision-making Strategy to Maximize the Information Value of Weather Forecasts in a Customer Relationship Management (CRM) Problem of the Leisure Industry (레저산업의 고객관계관리 문제에서 기상예보의 정보가치를 최대화시키는 의사결정전략 분석)

  • Lee, Joong-Woo;Lee, Ki-Kwang
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.33-43
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    • 2010
  • This paper presents a method for the estimation and analysis of the economic value of weather forecasts for CRM decision-making problems in the leisure industry. Value is calculated in terms of the customer's satisfaction returned from the user's decision under the specific payoff structure, which is itself represented by a customer's satisfaction ratio model. The decision is assessed by a modified cost-loss model to consider the customer's satisfaction instead of the loss or cost. Site-specific probability and deterministic forecasts, each of which is provided in Korea and China, are applied to generate and analyze the optimal decisions. The application results demonstrate that probability forecasts have greater value than deterministic forecasts, provided that the users can locate the optimal decision threshold. This paper also presents the optimal decision strategy for specific customers with a variety of satisfaction patterns.

A parametric study on seismic fragility analysis of RC buildings

  • Nagashree, B.K.;Ravi, Kumar C.M.;Venkat, Reddy D.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.629-643
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    • 2016
  • Among all the natural disasters, earthquakes are the most destructive calamities since they cause a plenty of injuries and economic losses leaving behind a series of signs of panic. The present study highlights the moment-curvature relationships for the structural elements such as beam and column elements and Non-Linear Static Pushover Analysis of RC frame structures since it is a very simplified procedure of non-linear static analysis. The highly popular model namely Mander's model and Kent and Park model are considered and then, seismic risk evaluation of RC building has been conducted using SAP 2000 version 17 treating uncertainty in strength as a parameter. From the obtained capacity and demand curves, the performance level of the structure has been defined. The seismic fragility curves were developed for the variations in the material strength and damage state threshold are calculated. Also the comparison of experimental and analytical results has been conducted.

A Theoretical Analysis of Probabilistic DDHV Estimation Models (확률적인 중방향 설계시간 교통량 산정 모형에 관한 이론적 해석)

  • Cho, Jun-Han;Kim, Seong-Ho;Rho, Jeong-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.199-209
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    • 2008
  • This paper is described the concepts and limitations for the traditional directional design hour volume estimation. The main objective of this paper is to establish an estimation method of probabilistic directional design hour volume in order to improve the limitation for the traditional approach method. To express the traffic congestion of specific road segment, this paper proposed the link travel time as the probability that the road capacity can accommodate a certain traffic demand at desired service level. Also, the link travel time threshold was derived from chance-constrained stochastic model. Such successive probabilistic process could determine optimal ranked design hour volume and directional design hour volume. Therefore, the probabilistic directional design hour volume can consider the traffic congestion and economic aspect in road planning and design stage. It is hoped that this study will provide a better understanding of various issues involved in the short term prediction of directional design hourly volume on different types of roads.

Benzene and Leukemia: The 0.1 ppm ACGIH Proposed Threshold Limit Value for Benzene

  • Infante Peter F.
    • 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1994.02a
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    • pp.681-691
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    • 1994
  • The American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) has proposed a threshold limit value (TLV) for benzene of 0.1 ppm. Individuals representing the American Petroleum Institute (API)and the Chemical Manufacturers Association (CMA) have argued that 1) the risk assessment by Rinsky .et al. which ACGIH partially relied upon for its proposed TLV overestimates the risk; however, at the exposures levels of interest - (e.g., 0.1 to 1.0 ppm) for establishing a benzene TLV, the Rinsky et al. assessment provides lower estimates of leukemia risk than most others; 2) ACGIH should not use the Dow study for direct observational evidence of leukemia risk associated with low-level benzene exposure because of confounding exposure; however, it is unlikely that confounding exposures played a role in the excess of leukemia demonstrated in the study, and the Dow cohort was exposed to an average benzene concentration of about 5.5 ppm benzene for 7.11 years (31:1.5 ppm-years), while some of the individuals in the study who died from leukemia were exposed to an average of only 1.0 ppm without the opportunity for highpeak exposures; 3) the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) established an 8-hour time-weighted average (TWA) of 1.0 ppm in 1987, and there is no new evidence that would justify reducing the TWA below that level; however, the OSHA TWA of 1.0 ppm was based on economic feasibility and the level of excess risk remaining at 1.0 ppm, i.e., 10 excess leukemia deaths per 1000 workers over an occupational lifetime (45 years) according to OSHA's preferred estimate leaves behind I risk considered significant by OSHA. In addition, chromosomal studies among workers and in animals exposed to benzene indicate that low-level exposure, i.e., 1.0 ppm, is associated with elevated Cytogenetic damage. On the basis of adverse health effects data alone, in this author's opinion, it would be poor science and poor public health policy to establish a benzene TLV greater than 0.1 ppm.

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Mastitis Detection by Near-infrared Spectra of Cows Milk and SIMCA Classification Method

  • Tsenkova, R.;Atanassova, S.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Near Infrared Spectroscopy Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.1248-1248
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    • 2001
  • Mastitis is a major problem for the global dairy industry and causes substantial economic losses from decreasing milk production and considerable compositional changes in milk, reducing milk quality. The potential of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy in the region from 1100 to 2500nm and chemometric method for classification to detect milk from mastitic cows was investigated. A total of 189 milk samples from 7 Holstein cows were collected for 27 days, consecutively, and analyzed for somatic cells (SCC). Three of the cows were healthy, and the rest had mastitis periods during the experiment. NIR transflectance milk spectra were obtained by the InfraAlyzer 500 spectrophotometer in the spectral range from 1100 to 2500nm. All samples were divided into calibration set and test set. Class variable was assigned for each sample as follow: healthy (class 1) and mastitic (class 2), based on milk SCC content. The classification of the samples was performed using soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA) and different spectral data pretreatment. Two concentration of SCC - 200 000 cells/ml and 300 000 cells/ml, respectively, were used as thresholds fer separation of healthy and mastitis cows. The best detection accuracy was found for models, obtained using 200 000 cells/ml as threshold and smoothed absorbance data - 98.41% from samples in the calibration set and 87.30% from the samples in the independent test set were correctly classified. SIMCA results for classes, based on 300 000 cells/ml threshold, showed a little lower accuracy of classification. The analysis of changes in the loading of first PC factor for group of healthy milk and group of mastitic milk showed, that separation between classes was indirect and based on influence of mastitis on the milk components. The accuracy of mastitis detection by SIMCA method, based on NIR spectra of milk would allow health screening of cows and differentiation between healthy and mastitic milk samples. Having SIMCA models, mastitis detection would be possible by using only DIR spectra of milk, without any other analyses.

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The Concentration of Economic Power in Korea (경제력집중(經濟力集中) : 기본시각(基本視角)과 정책방향(政策方向))

  • Lee, Kyu-uck
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.31-68
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    • 1990
  • The concentration of economic power takes the form of one or a few firms controlling a substantial portion of the economic resources and means in a certain economic area. At the same time, to the extent that these firms are owned by a few individuals, resource allocation can be manipulated by them rather than by the impersonal market mechanism. This will impair allocative efficiency, run counter to a decentralized market system and hamper the equitable distribution of wealth. Viewed from the historical evolution of Western capitalism in general, the concentration of economic power is a paradox in that it is a product of the free market system itself. The economic principle of natural discrimination works so that a few big firms preempt scarce resources and market opportunities. Prominent historical examples include trusts in America, Konzern in Germany and Zaibatsu in Japan in the early twentieth century. In other words, the concentration of economic power is the outcome as well as the antithesis of free competition. As long as judgment of the economic system at large depends upon the value systems of individuals, therefore, the issue of how to evaluate the concentration of economic power will inevitably be tinged with ideology. We have witnessed several different approaches to this problem such as communism, fascism and revised capitalism, and the last one seems to be the only surviving alternative. The concentration of economic power in Korea can be summarily represented by the "jaebol," namely, the conglomerate business group, the majority of whose member firms are monopolistic or oligopolistic in their respective markets and are owned by particular individuals. The jaebol has many dimensions in its size, but to sketch its magnitude, the share of the jaebol in the manufacturing sector reached 37.3% in shipment and 17.6% in employment as of 1989. The concentration of economic power can be ascribed to a number of causes. In the early stages of economic development, when the market system is immature, entrepreneurship must fill the gap inherent in the market in addition to performing its customary managerial function. Entrepreneurship of this sort is a scarce resource and becomes even more valuable as the target rate of economic growth gets higher. Entrepreneurship can neither be readily obtained in the market nor exhausted despite repeated use. Because of these peculiarities, economic power is bound to be concentrated in the hands of a few entrepreneurs and their business groups. It goes without saying, however, that the issue of whether the full exercise of money-making entrepreneurship is compatible with social mores is a different matter entirely. The rapidity of the concentration of economic power can also be traced to the diversification of business groups. The transplantation of advanced technology oriented toward mass production tends to saturate the small domestic market quite early and allows a firm to expand into new markets by making use of excess capacity and of monopoly profits. One of the reasons why the jaebol issue has become so acute in Korea lies in the nature of the government-business relationship. The Korean government has set economic development as its foremost national goal and, since then, has intervened profoundly in the private sector. Since most strategic industries promoted by the government required a huge capacity in technology, capital and manpower, big firms were favored over smaller firms, and the benefits of industrial policy naturally accrued to large business groups. The concentration of economic power which occured along the way was, therefore, not necessarily a product of the market system. At the same time, the concentration of ownership in business groups has been left largely intact as they have customarily met capital requirements by means of debt. The real advantage enjoyed by large business groups lies in synergy due to multiplant and multiproduct production. Even these effects, however, cannot always be considered socially optimal, as they offer disadvantages to other independent firms-for example, by foreclosing their markets. Moreover their fictitious or artificial advantages only aggravate the popular perception that most business groups have accumulated their wealth at the expense of the general public and under the behest of the government. Since Korea stands now at the threshold of establishing a full-fledged market economy along with political democracy, the phenomenon called the concentration of economic power must be correctly understood and the roles of business groups must be accordingly redefined. In doing so, we would do better to take a closer look at Japan which has experienced a demise of family-controlled Zaibatsu and a success with business groups(Kigyoshudan) whose ownership is dispersed among many firms and ultimately among the general public. The Japanese case cannot be an ideal model, but at least it gives us a good point of departure in that the issue of ownership is at the heart of the matter. In setting the basic direction of public policy aimed at controlling the concentration of economic power, one must harmonize efficiency and equity. Firm size in itself is not a problem, if it is dictated by efficiency considerations and if the firm behaves competitively in the market. As long as entrepreneurship is required for continuous economic growth and there is a discrepancy in entrepreneurial capacity among individuals, a concentration of economic power is bound to take place to some degree. Hence, the most effective way of reducing the inefficiency of business groups may be to impose competitive pressure on their activities. Concurrently, unless the concentration of ownership in business groups is scaled down, the seed of social discontent will still remain. Nevertheless, the dispersion of ownership requires a number of preconditions and, consequently, we must make consistent, long-term efforts on many fronts. We can suggest a long list of policy measures specifically designed to control the concentration of economic power. Whatever the policy may be, however, its intended effects will not be fully realized unless business groups abide by the moral code expected of socially responsible entrepreneurs. This is especially true, since the root of the problem of the excessive concentration of economic power lies outside the issue of efficiency, in problems concerning distribution, equity, and social justice.

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Damage Analysis of Korean White Pine Stands in which the Black-tipped Sawfly was Chemically Controlled (잣나무넓적잎벌 방제림분(防除林分)에 대(對)한 잣나무 피해해석(被害解析))

  • Chung, Sang Bae;Kim, Chul Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.87 no.3
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    • pp.328-333
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    • 1998
  • To obtain basic information for establishing a pest control strategy for insect pest management system, changes in the population densities of the black-tipped sawfly(Acantholyda posticalis posticalis Matsumura) and damage patterns in tree growth were investigated in national forests in Hoigok-ri, Kapyung-gun, Kyunggi-do, where the pest control measures were taken. The results obtained were as follows ; 1. The larval density in the soil of the forests where the insecticides were applied have been kept below economic threshold for about 7 years. The density was the highest in the middle of slopes and similar to the level of the early stage of the insect outbreak. 2. After the pest control by insecticides, reduction in tree height and diameter growth lasted for 2-3 years in trees defoliated by over 70%. 3. The diameter growth of the trees damaged by black-tipped sawfly recovered faster in upper stem than in the lower. 4. volume growth of the trees defoliated over 70% by the insect decreased for three to four years. The volume loss of trees defoliated by 70% and 90% was 19.6% and 54.0%, respectively. 5. Maintaining the rate of defoliation below 50%, which is the economic threshold, by chemical control measures had an effect of reducing the tree volume loss by $40m^2/ha$ as compared with a stand defoliated by 90%.

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