• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic instability

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Evaluation and Forecast of North Korea's Nuclear Policy through Libya Model (리비아 모델을 통한 북한의 핵 정책 평가와 전망)

  • Han, Seung Jo;Shin, Jin
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.113-122
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    • 2018
  • The issue of security on the Korean peninsula is facing the greatest upheaval in 2018 with the inter-Korean summit and the US-North Korea summit. North Korea has pursued the parallel policy developing military and economic at the same time. However, North Korea is changing its route to give up nuclear weapons and focus on the economy through summit talks. Since the change in North Korea is similar to that of Libya in the past, it is necessary to analyze why North Korea is trying to abandon its nuclear program and how the process is flowing compared to the case of Libya. The Libya model was constructed and analyzed in terms of international and domestic perpectives and recognition of the situation by leadership. North Korea's nuclear policy was evaluated based on the Libya model. The nuclear development of Libya and North Korea has caused diplomatic and economic pressures from the international community and ultimately led to instability of the regime. Two countries have tried to abandon nuclear program in order to solve the instability of the regime, also gain the economic reward insead. Libya took economic benefits and secured some of the stability of the regime, but the regime collapsed under the wave of democracy due to the influx of foreign capital and ideas. North Korea will seek diplomatic and economic gains with the example of Libya, but will try to limit as much as possible the culture of democracy and the full opening that can be incidental.

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Employment Instability and Security Funds in U.S. Households

  • Baek, Eun-Woung
    • International Journal of Human Ecology
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.55-75
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of employment related factors on household savings for precautionary purposes when controlling for financial security and to compare the results between the two different economic periods. A conceptual framework was developed based on the precautionary saving theory, the family stress theory, and previous empirical studies. As a self-insurance, a measure of security funds were developed and used as the dependent variable. Using data on working households in the 1992 and the 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), a MLE estimation was conducted on the pooled data. The 1992 and 1998 data were used to reflect periods of economic recession and expansion, respectively. The results suggested that factors representing resources played the most significant role in determining the amount of security funds. Some of the employment related factors, preferences, financial security, and race were also significantly affected the amount of security funds. The results suggested that stable employment conditions were important for households to accumulate security funds. Households with more human resources and financial resources had a larger amount of security funds than those that had less human and financial resources. From the findings, implications for research, policies, and financial educators had been suggested.

BIFURCATIONS AND FEEDBACK CONTROL IN AN EXPLOITED PREY-PREDATOR SYSTEM WITH STAGE STRUCTURE FOR PREY

  • Kar, T.K.;Pahari, U.K.
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.29 no.5_6
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    • pp.1193-1204
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    • 2011
  • In the present paper we consider a differential-algebraic prey-predator model with stage structure for prey and harvesting of predator species. Stability and instability of the equilibrium points are discussed and it is observed that the model exhibits a singular induced bifurcation when the economic profit is zero. It indicates that the zero economic profit brings impulse, i.e. rapid expansion of the population and the system collapses. For the purpose of stabilizing the system around the positive equilibrium, a state feedback controller is designed. Finally, numerical simulations are given to show the consistency with theoretical analysis.

A Study for Landslides of Chungju Dam Right Abutment (충주(忠州)댐 우안(右岸) 산사태(山沙汰)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Choi, Young Jin;Song, Moo Young
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.309-318
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    • 1991
  • Analysis for landslides was studied in framework of Chungju dam right abutment, 6.5km northeast of Chungju city. $5.5{\times}10^6m^3$ landslide materials were excavated during dam construction for safety of the Chungju dam. Geology of study area is composed mainly of meta sediments such as dolomitic limestone, quartzite and schist which are dipping toward the Nam Han river. Scanline survey of discontinuities was performed for slope stability, resistivity exploration was performed for the evaluation of potential failure plane, and direct shear strength test of rocks and soils was performed for the effect on landslide. Monitoring systems of tiltmeter, tensiometer, ground water observation hole and level monument were installed during dam construction and interpreted for the evaluation of slope instability. Kinematic solution of the geological structure and evaluation using safety factor for slope may prove the failure of the slope.

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A Study on Enhancing the Load Power Factor from the Point of View of Economic Operation Using the Load Power Factor Sensitivity Method (부하역률 감도기법 적용에 의한 전력시스템의 경제운용 측면에서의 역률개선 방안 연구)

  • Lee B. H.;Kim J. H.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • summer
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    • pp.153-155
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    • 2004
  • Various problems such as the increase of the power loss and the voltage instability may often occur in the case of low load power factor. The demand of reactive power increases continuously with the growth of active power and the restructuring of electric power companies makes the integrated management of ractive power a troublesome problem, so that the systematic control of load power factor is required. In this paper, the load power factor sensitivity of the generation cost is used for determining the locations of reactive power compensation devices effectively and for enhancing the load power factor appropriately. In addition, the integrated costs are used for determining the value of the load power factor from the point of view of the economic operation. It is shown through the application to a large-scale power system that the system power factor can be enhanced effectively and appropriately using the load power factor sensitivity and integrated costs.

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The Relation between Wage and Price Under Low Inflation Rate (저(低)인플레이션하의 임금과 물가의 관계에 대한 연구)

  • Yi, Hyun Chang
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.49-74
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    • 2006
  • Even though the foreign currency crisis in 1997 and the introduction of Inflation Targeting(IT) have been considered as key factors for current low inflation, there have been few attempts to explain what is the contribution of the dynamics of wage and price to the low inflation. This study is to analyze the relation between wage and price especially focusing on how it through the economic events using cointegration instability tests. The result shows that the short and long-run relation between two have variables have changed through the period of 1997~1999. In the first subperiod, wage tended to respond immediately to inflation shocks, whereas price responded to wage shocks in a long-run. Moreover, the cointegration coefficient of price was equal to 1. In the second subperiod, however, the dynamics from price to wage has been weakened and the real wage has declined apparently. These findings mean that the workers have failed to raise their wage at the rate of inflation, that is, the so-called wage-price spiral was broken for the second subperiod. The implication of this study is that the relatively weak bargaining power of workers, or the condition of labor market, is one of the primary factors of the current low inflation.

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Comparative Analysis for Real-Estate Price Index Prediction Models using Machine Learning Algorithms: LIME's Interpretability Evaluation (기계학습 알고리즘을 활용한 지역 별 아파트 실거래가격지수 예측모델 비교: LIME 해석력 검증)

  • Jo, Bo-Geun;Park, Kyung-Bae;Ha, Sung-Ho
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.119-144
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    • 2020
  • Purpose Real estate usually takes charge of the highest proportion of physical properties which individual, organizations, and government hold and instability of real estate market affects the economic condition seriously for each economic subject. Consequently, practices for predicting the real estate market have attention for various reasons, such as financial investment, administrative convenience, and wealth management. Additionally, development of machine learning algorithms and computing hardware enhances the expectation for more precise and useful prediction models in real estate market. Design/methodology/approach In response to the demand, this paper aims to provide a framework for forecasting the real estate market with machine learning algorithms. The framework consists of demonstrating the prediction efficiency of each machine learning algorithm, interpreting the interior feature effects of prediction model with a state-of-art algorithm, LIME(Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanation), and comparing the results in different cities. Findings This research could not only enhance the academic base for information system and real estate fields, but also resolve information asymmetry on real estate market among economic subjects. This research revealed that macroeconomic indicators, real estate-related indicators, and Google Trends search indexes can predict real-estate prices quite well.

Analysis of the Effect of Economic Growth of China's Fiscal Decentralization (재정분권화가 중국 경제성장에 미친 영향 분석)

  • Choi, Won Ick
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.157-177
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    • 2010
  • This study analyzes the effect of fiscal decentralization on economic growth by using each province city's panel data of China from 1985 to 2008. By using Recently developed fiscal decentralization index and autonomy of local government quantified this study finds the following conclusions. The increase of inflation rate affects positive effect on Chinese economy. This is the trade-off relationship with the growth of Chinese economy by the Phillips Curve theory. So this suggests the instability of Chinese economy. The affiliation of WTO of China shows positive effect on Chinese economy. This can be translated as the real evidence about free trade theory of Classical School. Expenditure decentralization in China led to economic growth and revenue decentralization also affected positively although it was not as much as expenditure decentralization's effect. Central tax and local tax negatively influenced economic growth; and differently from our expectation, local government autonomy quantified was not relevant to economic growth.

Safety analysis and design of full balanced hoist vertical shiplifts

  • Liao, Lekang
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.311-327
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    • 2014
  • The safety relating to leakage of water and pitch instability of ship chambers of the full balanced hoist vertical shiplifts has been the focus of adoption of the type of vertical shiplifts. This paper aims to remove the doubts through theoretical and engineering researches. The leakage and pitch stability of ship chambers of full balanced hoist vertical ship lifts are investigated on the basis of theoretical analysis and exploration of engineering measures. Regarding the issue of leakage of ship chambers, a mathematical model on leaking process is built and corresponding formula and coping measures are obtained which can be applied in control program of ship lifts by linking with monitoring. The concept of safety grade is put forward to seek the best technical and economic index and the corresponding technical measures are for different grades of ship lift is suggested. For the issue of pitch instability, a methodology of combining theoretical deduction and summary of achievements of design and operation of the type of the full balanced hoist shiplifts is adopted, and the formula for design about pitch stability of ship chambers is derived.

A Study on the Application of Under Voltage Load Shedding Scheme in Line Contingency considering Motor Load (모터부하를 고려한 상정사고 발생 시 저전압 부하차단 적용 방안에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Yun-Hwan
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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    • v.66 no.1
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    • pp.21-26
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    • 2017
  • Failure of high-voltage transmission line, which is responsible for large-scale power transmission, can be reason for system voltage instability. There are many methods to prevent voltage instability like adjustment of equipment, the generator voltage setting, and load shedding. Among them, the load shedding, have a problem of economic loss and cascading effect to power system. Therefore, the execution of load shedding, amount and timing is very important. Conventionally, the load shedding setting is decided by the preformed simulation. Now, it is possible to monitor the power system in real time by the appearance of PMU(Phasor Measurement Unit). By this reason, some of research is performed about decentralized load shedding. The characteristics of the load can impact to amount and timing of decentralized load shedding. Especially, it is necessary to consider the influence of the induction motor loads. This paper review recent topic about under voltage load shedding and compare with decentralized load shedding scheme with conventional load shedding scheme. And simulations show the effectiveness of proposed method in resolving the delayed voltage recovery in the Korean Power System.