• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic forecasting

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The Economic Effects of the New and Renewable Energies Sector (신재생에너지 부문의 경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Lim, Seul-Ye;Park, So-Yeon;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2014
  • The Korean government made the 2nd Energy Basic Plan to achieve 11% of new and renewable energies distribution rate until 2035 as a response to cope with international discussion about greenhouse gas emission reduction. Renewable energies include solar thermal, photovoltaic, bioenergy, wind power, small hydropower, geothermal energy, ocean energy, and waste energy. New energies contain fuel cells, coal gasification and liquefaction, and hydrogen. As public and private investment to enhance the distribution of new and renewable energies, it is necessary to clarify the economic effects of the new and renewable energies sector. To the end, this study attempts to apply an input-output analysis and analyze the economic effects of new and renewable energies sector using 2012 input-output table. Three topics are dealt with. First, production-inducing effect, value-added creation effect, and employment-inducing effect are quantified based on demand-driven model. Second, supply shortage effects are analyzed employing supply-driven model. Lastly, price pervasive effects are investigated applying Leontief price model. The results of this analysis are as follows. First, one won of production or investment in new and renewable energies sector induces 2.1776 won of production and 0.7080 won of value-added. Moreover, the employment-inducing effect of one billion won of production or investment in new and renewable energies sector is estimated to be 9.0337 persons. Second, production shortage cost from one won of supply failure in new and renewable energies sector is calculated to be 1.6314 won, which is not small. Third, the impact of the 10% increase in new and renewable energies rate on the general price level is computed to be 0.0123%, which is small. This information can be utilized in forecasting the economic effects of new and renewable energies sector.

Variation and Forecast of Rural Population in Korea: 1960-1985 (농촌인구(農村人口)의 변화(變化)와 예측(豫測))

  • Kwon, Yong Duk;Choi, Kyu Seob
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • v.8
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    • pp.129-138
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    • 1990
  • This study investigated the relationship between the cutflow of rural population and agricultural policy by using time series method. For the analytical tools, decomposition time series methods and regression technique were employed in computing seasonal fluctuation and cyclical fluctuation of population migration. Also, this study predicted farmhouse, rural population till the 2000's by means of the mathematical methods. The analytical forms employed in forecasting farmhouse, rural population were Exponential curve, Gompertz curve and Transcendental form. The major findings of this study were identified as follows: 1) Rural population and farmhouse population began to decrease from 1965 and hastily went down since 1975. Rural population which accounted for 36.4 percent, 35.6 percent of national population respectively in 1960 diminished about two times: 17.5 percent, 17.1 percent respectively. 2) The rapid decreasing of the rural population was caused because of the outflow of rural people to the urban regions. Of course, that was also caused from the natural decreases but the main reason was heavily affected more the former than the latter. In the outflowing course shaped from rural to the urban regions, rural people concentrated on such metropolis as Seoul, Pusan, Keanggi. But these trends were diminishing slowly. On the other hand, compared with that of the 1970's the migration to Keanggi was still increasing in the 1980's. That is, people altered the way of migration from the migration to Seoul, Pusan to the migration to the out-skirts of Seoul. 3) The seasonal fluctuation index of population migration has gone down since the June which the request of agricultural labor force increases and has turned to be greatly wanted in the March as result of decomposition time series method. As result of cyclical analysis, the cyclical patterns of migration have greatly 7 cycle. 4) As result of forecasting the rural and farmhouse population, rural and farmhouse population in the 2000 will be about 9,655(thousand/people) and 4,429(thousand/people) respectively. Thus, it is important to analyze the probloms that rural and farmhouse population will decrease or increase by the degree. But fairly defining the agricultural into a industry that supply the food, this problem - how much our nation need the rural and farmhouse population - is greatly significant too. Therefore, the basic problems of the agricultural including the outflows of rural people are the earning differentials between rural and urban regions. And we should regard the problems of the gap of relative incomes between rural and urban regions as the main task of the agricultural policy and treat the agricultural policy in the viewpoint of developing economic equilibrium than efficiency by using actively the natural resources of the rural regions.

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An Empirical Study on How the Moderating Effects of Individual Cultural Characteristics towards a Specific Target Affects User Experience: Based on the Survey Results of Four Types of Digital Device Users in the US, Germany, and Russia (특정 대상에 대한 개인 수준의 문화적 성향이 사용자 경험에 미치는 조절효과에 대한 실증적 연구: 미국, 독일, 러시아의 4개 디지털 기기 사용자를 대상으로)

  • Lee, In-Seong;Choi, Gi-Woong;Kim, So-Lyung;Lee, Ki-Ho;Kim, Jin-Woo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.113-145
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    • 2009
  • Recently, due to the globalization of the IT(Information Technology) market, devices and systems designed in one country are used in other countries as well. This phenomenon is becoming the key factor for increased interest on cross-cultural, or cross-national, research within the IT area. However, as the IT market is becoming bigger and more globalized, a great number of IT practitioners are having difficulty in designing and developing devices or systems which can provide optimal experience. This is because not only tangible factors such as language and a country's economic or industrial power affect the user experience of a certain device or system but also invisible and intangible factors as well. Among such invisible and intangible factors, the cultural characteristics of users from different countries may affect the user experience of certain devices or systems because cultural characteristics affect how they understand and interpret the devices or systems. In other words, when users evaluate the quality of overall user experience, the cultural characteristics of each user act as a perceptual lens that leads the user to focus on a certain elements of experience. Therefore, there is a need within the IT field to consider cultural characteristics when designing or developing certain devices or systems and plan a strategy for localization. In such an environment, existing IS studies identify the culture with the country, emphasize the importance of culture in a national level perspective, and hypothesize that users within the same country have same cultural characteristics. Under such assumptions, these studies focus on the moderating effects of cultural characteristics on a national level within a certain theoretical framework. This has already been suggested by cross-cultural studies conducted by scholars such as Hofstede(1980) in providing numerical research results and measurement items for cultural characteristics and using such results or items as they increase the efficiency of studies. However, such national level culture has its limitations in forecasting and explaining individual-level behaviors such as voluntary device or system usage. This is because individual cultural characteristics are the outcome of not only the national culture but also the culture of a race, company, local area, family, and other groups that are formulated through interaction within the group. Therefore, national or nationally dominant cultural characteristics may have its limitations in forecasting and explaining the cultural characteristics of an individual. Moreover, past studies in psychology suggest a possibility that there exist different cultural characteristics within a single individual depending on the subject being measured or its context. For example, in relation to individual vs. collective characteristics, which is one of the major cultural characteristics, an individual may show collectivistic characteristics when he or she is with family or friends but show individualistic characteristics in his or her workplace. Therefore, this study acknowledged such limitations of past studies and conducted a research within the framework of 'theoretically integrated model of user satisfaction and emotional attachment', which was developed through a former study, on how the effects of different experience elements on emotional attachment or user satisfaction are differentiated depending on the individual cultural characteristics related to a system or device usage. In order to do this, this study hypothesized the moderating effects of four cultural dimensions (uncertainty avoidance, individualism vs, collectivism, masculinity vs. femininity, and power distance) as suggested by Hofstede(1980) within the theoretically integrated model of emotional attachment and user satisfaction. Statistical tests were then implemented on these moderating effects through conducting surveys with users of four digital devices (mobile phone, MP3 player, LCD TV, and refrigerator) in three countries (US, Germany, and Russia). In order to explain and forecast the behavior of personal device or system users, individual cultural characteristics must be measured, and depending on the target device or system, measurements must be measured independently. Through this suggestion, this study hopes to provide new and useful perspectives for future IS research.

An analysis of the operational efficiency of the major airports worldwide using DEA and Malmquist productivity indices (세계 주요 공항 운영 효율성 분석: DEA와 Malmquist 생산성 지수 분석을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Hong-Seop;Park, Jeong-Rim
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.11 no.8
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    • pp.5-14
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - We live in a world of constant change and competition. Many airports have specific competitiveness goals and strategies for achieving and maintaining them. The global economic recession, financial crises, and rising oil prices have resulted in an increasingly important role for facility investment and renewal and the implementation of appropriate policies in ensuring the competitive advantage for airports. It is thus important to analyze the factors that enhance efficiency and productivity for an airport. This study aims to determine the efficiency levels of 20 major airports in East Asia, Europe, and North America. Further, this study also suggests suitable policies and strategies for their development. Research design, data, and methodology - This paper employs the DEA-CCR, DEA-BCC, and DEA-Malmquist production index analysis models to determine airport efficiency. The study uses data on the efficiency and productivity of the world's leading airports between 2006 and 2010. The input variables include the airport size, the number of runways, the size of passenger terminals, and the size of cargo terminals. The output variables include the annual number of passengers and the annual cargo volume. The study uses basic data from the 2010 World Airport Traffic Report (ACI). The world's top 20 airports (as rated by the ACI report) are investigated. The study uses the expanded DEA Model and the Super Efficiency Model to identify the most effective airports among the top 20. The Malmquist productivity index analysis is used to measure airport effectiveness. Results - This study analyzes longitudinal and cross-sectional data on the world's top 20 airports covering 2006 to 2010. A CCR analysis shows that the most efficient airports in 2010 were Gatwick Airport (LGW), Zurich Airport (ZRH), Vienna Airport (VIE), Leonardo da Vinci Fiumicino Airport (FCO), Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), Seattle-Tacoma Airport (SEA), San Francisco Airport (SFO), HongKong Airport (HKG), Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK), and Shanghai Pudong Airport (PVG). We find that changes in airport productivity are affected more by technical factors than by airport efficiency. Conclusions - Based on the study results, we offer four airport development proposals. First, a benchmark airport needs to be identified. Second, inefficiency must be reduced and high-cost factors need to be managed. Third, airport operations should be enhanced through technical innovation. Finally, scientific demand forecasting and facility preparation must become the focus of attention. This paper has some limitations. Because the Malmquist productivity index is based on the hypothesis of the, the identified production change could be over- or under-estimated. Further, as DEA estimates the relative efficiency. It also cannot generalize to include all airport conditions because the variables are limited. To measure airport productivity more accurately, other input variables and environmental variables such as financial and policy factors should be included.

An Automated OpenGIS-based Tool Development for Flood Inundation Mapping and its Applications in Jeju Hancheon (OpenGIS 기반 홍수범람지도 작성 자동화 툴 개발 및 제주 한천 적용 연구)

  • Kim, Kyungdong;Kim, Taeeun;Kim, Dongsu;Yang, Sungkee
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.691-702
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    • 2019
  • Flood inundation map has various important roles in terms of municipal planning, timely dam operation, economic levee design, and building flood forecasting systems. Considering that the riparian areas adjacent to national rivers with high potential flood vulnerability conventionally imposed special cares to justify applications of recently available two- or three-dimensional flood inundation numerical models on top of digital elevation models of dense spatial resolution such as LiDAR irrespective of their high costs. On the contrary, local streams usually could not have benefits from recent technological advances, instead they inevitably have relied upon time-consuming manual drawings or have accepted DEMs with poor resolutions or inaccurate 1D numerical models for producing inundation maps due mainly to limited budgets and suitable techniques. In order to efficiently and cost-effectively provide a series of flood inundation maps dedicatedly for the local streams, this study proposed an OpenGIS-based flood mapping tool named Open Flood Mapper (OFM). The spatial accuracy of flood inundation map derived from the OFM was validated throughout comparison with an inundation trace map acquired after typhoon Nari in Hancheon basin located in Jeju Island. Also, a series of inundation maps from the OFM were comprehensively investigated to track the burst of flood in the extreme flood events.

Present Status of Soilborne Disease Incidence and Scheme for Its Integrated Management in Korea (국내 토양병해 발생현황과 종합 관리방안)

  • Kim, Choong-Hoe;Kim, Yong-Ki
    • Research in Plant Disease
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.146-161
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    • 2002
  • Incidence of soilborne diseases, as a major cause of failure of continuous monocropping becomes severe in recent years. For examples, recent epidemics of club root of chinese cabbage, white rot of garlic, bacterial wilt of potato, pepper phytophthora blight, tomato fusarium wilt and CGMMV of watermelon are the diseases that require urgent control measures. Reasons for the severe incidence of soilborne diseases are the simplified cropping system or continuous monocropping associated with allocation of major production areas of certain crop and year-round cultivation system that results in rapid degradation of soil environment. Neglect of breeding for disease resistance relative to giving much emphasis on high yield and good quality, and cultural methods putting first on the use of chemical fertilizers are thought to be the reason. Counter-measures against soilborne disease epidemics would become most effective when the remedies are seeded for individual causes. As long-term strategies, development of rational cropping system which fits local cropping and economic condition, development and supply of cultivars resistant to multiple diseases, and improvement of soil environment by soil conditioning are suggested. In short-term strategies, simple and economical soil-disinfestation technology, and quick and accurate forecasting methods for soilborne diseases are urgent matter far development. for these, extensive supports are required in governmental level for rearing soilborne disease specialists and activation of collaborating researches to solve encountering problems of soilborne diseases.

Integrated Pest Control - Principles and Practices - (종합적 유해생물 관리 - 이론과 실제 -)

  • Hyun Jai-Sun
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.44 no.1 s.138
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    • pp.73-90
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    • 2005
  • Although the history of IPM can be traced back to the late 19th century, when ecology was identified as the foundation for scientific plant protection, it has been more than thirty years since first enunciation. Since than, the concept of IPM has evolved in multiple paths not only in entomology but in plant pathology and in weed science, and the philosophy has become a firm foundation to the science of plant protection. The IPM concept has gained wide general acceptance, however, because of the many-facet aspects, there has been some controversy and/or misunderstanding by the students and practitioners. In this paper, I was tried to review the concepts of IPM and to resolve the contradiction between the philosophy and practical techniques. On this line, the historical background and the concept of economic injury level, which is the foundation of the concepts, are reviewed and discussed the sampling techniques and the population dynamics of single pest, which were basic to the rational and effective application of the management techniques. IPM is not a science per se but it is a technique and it should be applicable to the real conditions. For this purpose, the information on the pests should be transferred to the producers as fast as possible. From such, some of my own opinion is presented in relation to current systems of the pest occurrence forecasting.

An Analysis on the Yield Curves for Active Bond Managements (적극적 채권운용전략을 위한 수익률곡선 분석)

  • Jeong, Hee-Joon
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.1-31
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    • 2008
  • Before the financial crisis in 1997, Korean bond markets had been those of corporate bonds with relatively high market yield. During the period, most of major institutional investors tend to utilize passive strategies such as buying and holding. After the crisis, however, they could not help choosing active bond management strategies because of lowed yield level and intensified competition among the financial institutions. This study is forced on the yield curve, which is the reflection of all information on the bond investment environments. The study also make analysis on the major economic and securities market factors and its structural relationship with the shape of the curve such as level, curvature and slope. For these purposes, an empirical model based on the Nelson-Siegel Model is estimated with the data during $1999{\sim}2006$. Out-of-sample forecasting is also made to test the usefulness of the estimated model. In addition, the dependent variables which are the estimates of level and slope are estimated on the macro variables and securities market variables. VAR and SUR models are used for the estimation. Estimation results show that level and slope of the yield curve are influenced by the target call rate change, exchange rate change rate, inflation rate. These results provide practical implications for the active managements in the overall treasury bond markets.

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Heat Consumption Pattern Analysis by the Component Ratio of District Heating Users (지역난방 사용자 구성비에 따른 열소비 패턴 분석)

  • Lee, Hoon;Lee, Min-Kyun;Kim, Lae Hyun
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.211-225
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    • 2013
  • To run an optimal operation of Integrated energy supply facilities, we need to analyze heat consumption patterns of District heating users and derive optimum and maximum load ratio of heat production facilities unit. This study selects three District heat production facilities. It also classifies District heating users into residential apartment buildings and eight non-residential buildings and analyzes heat consumption results for an year. Finally it carries out the analysis of how the ratio change of each type affects maximum load ratio, facility utilization ratio, heat supply range. According to this study, three different District heat facilities of residential apartment building show similar daily and annual heat consumption patterns. Annual average load ratio, maximum load ratio and annual heat demand increase as outdoor temperatures decrease. Non-residential buildings in urban District focused on apartment buildings display similar by the daily and annual heat consumption patterns. Yet their daily and annual maximum load ratio differ according to outdoor temperature, District, building types and their composition ratio. In the case of urban District focused on apartment buildings reach optimum and maximum load ratio when apartment buildings reaches 60-70% of the total. At that point heat supply range becomes maximized and the most economic efficiency is obtained.

An Empirical Study on Defense Future Technology in Artificial Intelligence (인공지능 분야 국방 미래기술에 관한 실증연구)

  • Ahn, Jin-Woo;Noh, Sang-Woo;Kim, Tae-Hwan;Yun, Il-Woong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.409-416
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligence, which is in the spotlight as the core driving force of the 4th industrial revolution, is expanding its scope to various industrial fields such as smart factories and autonomous driving with the development of high-performance hardware, big data, data processing technology, learning methods and algorithms. In the field of defense, as the security environment has changed due to decreasing defense budget, reducing military service resources, and universalizing unmanned combat systems, advanced countries are also conducting technical and policy research to incorporate artificial intelligence into their work by including recognition systems, decision support, simplification of the work processes, and efficient resource utilization. For this reason, the importance of technology-driven planning and investigation is also increasing to discover and research potential defense future technologies. In this study, based on the research data that was collected to derive future defense technologies, we analyzed the characteristic evaluation indicators for future technologies in the field of artificial intelligence and conducted empirical studies. The study results confirmed that in the future technologies of the defense AI field, the applicability of the weapon system and the economic ripple effect will show a significant relationship with the prospect.