• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.1-49
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• 2006

Considering the fact that households' demographic characteristics affect consumption decision, it is conjectured that rapid demographic changes would lead to a substantial change in the composition of private consumption expenditure. This paper estimates the demand functions of various consumption items by applying the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System(QUAIDS) model to Household Income and Expenditure Survey data, and then provides a long-term forecast of the composition of household consumption expenditure for 2005-2020. The paper shows that Korea's consumption expenditure will maintain the recent years' rapid change, of which a considerable portion is due to rapid demographic changes. Results of the paper can be utilized in forecasting the change in the industrial structure of the economy, as well as in firms' investment planning.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.8 s.86
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• pp.139-145
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• 2005

`Influence Area` means the area that the traffic flow pattern of which is changed remarkably after the construction of highway facilities. The Influence area would be a significant criteria for demand forecasting and economic analysis. However existing methods for defining influence area such as O/D method, traffic volume variation method and rate of traffic volume variation method have no standard criteria. In this paper, some problems which existing methods have are analyzed and a new method travel time method - is introduced. Influence area can be induced as the area where the vehicles reach from starting traffic zone to ending zone to which 95 percentile vehicles want to travel. In addition, the value of standard criteria for defining influence ayes are induced via this method.

• Spatial Information Research
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.3-14
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• 1994

The external diseconomy has been accelerated by the megaspatial structure of metropolis such as Seoul Capital Region(below SCR), Korea in which the more than 10 million populations inhabit. The main course for It could be elaborated by the overconcentration of the urban and regional function of various kinds. The study is performed to analyze quantitatively the status quo of the region as described above and proceed into forecasting the future population trend, the land use at location for the increment of regional population and to set the location of new towns in Seoul Capital Region System projected by the methods in computer algorithm of descriptive models such as the simple and multiple regress ion analysis models, the gravity model and the facility location on a plane model analysis. The goal and object ive of the metropolitan planning are to decentralize the regional growth management to the optimum degree, which will not hinder the economic growth of the region, but the result of the study is that we can not discourage the functional concentration of Seoul Capital Region and, we have to provide the region with the appropriate new towns.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.98-103
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• 2009

The forecasting, mitigation and preparedness of the natural disaster impacts require relevant information regarding the disaster desirable in real time. In the meantime it is requiring the rapid and continuous data and information generation or gathering for possible prediction and monitoring of the natural disaster. Since disasters that cause huge social and economic disruptions normally affect large areas or territories and are linked to global change. The use of traditional and conventional methods for management of the natural disaster impact can not be effectively implemented for intial data col1ection with the further processing. The space technology or remote sensing tools offer excellent possibilities of collecting vital data. The main reason is capability of this technology of collecting data at global and regional scales rapidly and repetitively. This is unchallenged advantage of the space methods and technology. The satellite or remote sensing techniques can be used to monitor the current situation, the situation before based on the data in sight. as well as after disaster occurred. They can be used to provide baseline data against which future changes can be compared while the GIS techniques provide a suitable framework for integrating and analyzing the many types of data sources required for disaster monitoring. Developed GIS is an excellent instrument for definition of the social impact status of the natural disaster which can be undertaken in the future database developments. This methodology is a good source for analysis and dynamic change studies of the natural disaster impacts.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.298-301
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• 2003

Objectives : There is an increasing concern for the social, economic, environmental and health effects of the Asian dust (Hwang-sa in Korean language) in Korea. In this study, we intended to indirectly determine ordinary people's perception about the Asian dust by analyzing the contents of newspaper articles dealing with it. Methods: By using article searching services in the internet websites of three newspaper companies, we collected newspaper articles dealing with the Asian dust during the period from January $1^{st}$ of 1998 to December $31^{st}$ of 2002. We classified the articles into four categories: those forecasting the occurrence of the Asian dust, those about measures to cope with it, those about its occurrence in the neighboring foreign countries, and those about its effects. In particular, we analyzed articles about the health effects of the Asian dust more distinctly. Results : A total of 1,225 articles dealing with the Asian dust were found during the 5 year period. The number of articles increased from 102 in 1998 to 518 in 2002, approximately a five-fold increase, The numbers of articles about health effects, environmental effects and economical effects were 191 (44%), 171 (41%) and 147 (34%), respectively. It was reported that various diseases such as respiratory diseases (87%), eye problems (69%), and skin diseases (12%) were associated with the Asian dust. Conclusion : The increasing concern for the negative effects of the Asian dust necessitates more studios about this field. As the effects of the Asian dust are various, the information on the major concern of ordinary people could help establish the research agendas and measures for the Asian dust.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.260-266
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• 2018

The concept of customer utility, which affects customer's adoption, is important to understand the process of technology diffusion and substitution regarding multiple generation technology. This research defined the concept of attribute-based customer utility and developed a model for measuring attribute-based customer utility. Based on the literature review and modeling, we provided the definition and a model regarding customer utility and the accuracy of the model is verified through a case study of the semiconductor industry. Customer utility for a multiple generation technology needs to consider changes by generation, or time within the same generation, and is defined as the summation of both technological and economic utilities. In addition, we can model the measurement of customer utility after converting technological and economical attributes into utilities. This research is valuable in understanding not only customer utility as a driver of customer adoption, but also for establishing technological strategy after forecasting diffusion and substitution paths based on customer utility.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.2 s.73
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• pp.19-26
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• 2004

AllWayS(AWS, Satongpaldal in Korean) is the first comprehensive computer software in Korea that is developed for the transportation demand modeling. The original DOS version software was recently receded for Windows environment. Traditional 4-step transportation demand forecasting process is incorporated in the software under graphical user interface environment. AWS is able to compose or edit graphic transportation networks data by each scenario which could be the subject of an analysis. Besides, it use database structure that can handle every data of a scenario such as networks, O/D, and socio-economic data, etc. We expect this integrated process could provide each analyst with efficient and easy to use tool for their analysis. Each models in this software is based on traditional algorithms and the results were compared to existing software, EMME/2 and it showed similar results.

• Archives of design research
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• v.20 no.1 s.69
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• pp.189-202
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• 2007

This study was carried out to forecast the future paradigm of design from the perspective of change in social environment within which design evolves through the process of birth, growth, development, and decline rather than changes within design itself. In general, before man takes an action, he sets the aim with mental and conceptual value decided internally and he considers various tools and means in his circumstance externally. Then he decides his action based on the most resonable and economic way. This is the mechanism by which all the living subjects including the human being survive and evolve within the given environment. In this respect, the future of design can be also explored and speculated in terms of change of man's mental value and the technology in future (this view is the same with what socio-culturalists see both cultural and technological determinism as a major factor for social change). Based on the view above, the present study extracted major keywords for a possible change of future design based on keywords on the present mental value and norm, and the materialistic technology and economy.

• KIISE Transactions on Computing Practices
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• v.21 no.12
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• pp.768-773
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• 2015

Emergence events are the cause of much economic damage. In order to minimize the damage that these events cause, it must be possible to predict what will happen in the future. Accordingly, many researchers have focused on real-time monitoring, detecting events, and investigating events. In addition, there have also been many studies on predictive analysis for forecasting of future trends. However, most studies provide future tendency per event without contextual compositive analysis. In this paper, we present a predictive visual analytics system using topic composition to provide future trends per event. We first extract abnormal topics from social media data to find interesting and unexpected events. We then search for similar emergence patterns in the past. Relevant topics in the past are provided by news media data. Finally, the user combines the relevant topics and a new context is created for contextual prediction. In a case study, we demonstrate our visual analytics system with two different cases and validate our system with possible predictive story lines.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.408-415
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• 2020

Objective: The aim of the paper was to compare the fit of data derived from daily automatic milking systems (AMS) and monthly test-day records with the use of lactation curves; data was analysed separately for primiparas and multiparas. Methods: The study was carried out on three Polish Holstein-Friesians (PHF) dairy herds. The farms were equipped with an automatic milking system which provided information on milking performance throughout lactation. Once a month cows were also subjected to test-day milkings (method A4). Most studies described in the literature are based on test-day data; therefore, we aimed to compare models based on both test-day and AMS data to determine which mathematical model (Wood or Wilmink) would be the better fit. Results: Results show that lactation curves constructed from data derived from the AMS were better adjusted to the actual milk yield (MY) data regardless of the lactation number and model. Also, we found that the Wilmink model may be a better fit for modelling the lactation curve of PHF cows milked by an AMS as it had the lowest values of Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, mean square error, the highest coefficient of determination values, and was more accurate in estimating MY than the Wood model. Although both models underestimated peak MY, mean, and total MY, the Wilmink model was closer to the real values. Conclusion: Models of lactation curves may have an economic impact and may be helpful in terms of herd management and decision-making as they assist in forecasting MY at any moment of lactation. Also, data obtained from modelling can help with monitoring milk performance of each cow, diet planning, as well as monitoring the health of the cow.