• 제목/요약/키워드: economic cycle

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Electricity Consumption as an Indicator of Real Economic Status (전력소비를 이용한 실물경기지수 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Seung-Hwan;Kim, Tea-Joong;Kwak, Dong-Chul
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - A variety of indicators are used for the diagnosis of economic situation. However, most indicators explain the past economic situation because of the time difference between the measurement and announcement. This study aims to argue for the resurrection of an idea: electricity demand can be used as an indicator of economic activity. In addition, this study made an endeavor to develop a new Real Business Index(RBI) which could quickly represent the real economic condition based on the sales statistics of industrial and public electricity. Research design, data, and methodology - In this study monthly sales of industrial and public electricity from 2000 to 2015 was investigated to analyze the relationship between the economic condition and the amount of electricity consumption and to develop a new Real Business Index. To formulate the Index, this study followed next three steps. First, we decided the explanatory variables, period, and collected data. Second, after calculating the monthly changes for each variable, standardization and estimating the weighted value were conducted. Third, the computation of RBI finalized the development of empirical model. The principal component analysis was used to evaluate the weighted contribution ratio among 3 sectors and 17 data. Hodrick-Prescott filter analysis was used to verify the robustness of out model. Results - The empirical results are as follows. First, compatibility of the predictability between the new RBI and the existing monthly cycle of coincident composite index was extremely high. Second, two indexes had a high correlation of 0.7156. In addition, Hodrick-Prescott filter analysis demonstrated that two indexed also had accompany relationship. Third, when the changes of two indexes were compared, they were found that the times when the highest and the lowest point happened were similar, which suggested that it is possible to use the new RBI index as a complementing indicator in a sense that the RBI can explain the economic condition almost in real time. Conclusion - A new economic index which can explain the economic condition needs to be developed well and rapidly in a sense that it is useful to determine accurately the current economic condition to establish economic policy and corporate strategy. The salse of electricity has a close relationship with economic conditions because electricity is utilized as a main resource of industrial production. Furthermore, the result of the sales of electricity can be gathered almost in real time. This study applied the econometrics model to the statistics of the sales of industrial and public electricity. In conclusion, the new RBI index was highly related with the existing monthly economic indexes. In addition, the comparison between the RBI index and other indexes demonstrated that the direction of the economic change and the times when the highest and lowest points had happened were almost the same. Therefore, this RBI index can become the supplementary indicator of the official indicators published by Korean Bank or the statistics Korea.

The Economic Effect of Industrial Investment on North Korea Energy and Natural Gas (북한 에너지산업과 천연가스분야 투자에 따른 경제적 파급효과)

  • Kim, Hyoung-Tae;Chae, Jung-Min;Cho, Young-Ah;Kim, Jin-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2016
  • The economic crisis in North Korea has reduced its capacity to invest in the energy industries. The country is going through a vicious cycle of decreased investment in the energy industries and reduced energy production. This suggests that the energy industries would come to the top priority of investment once the economy improves. This paper calculated the economic ripple effect of the investment on North and South Korean economies based on the assumption that 390 billion won was invested in the construction of a natural gas combined-cycle power plant in Gaesong Industrial Complex. In order to analyze the economic ripple effect of the investment on North Korean economy, we constructed the inter-industry relation table of North Korea for year 2014 and used the input-output model. The ripple effect of the investment in the natural gas industry turned out to be 1.012 billion dollars. In order to analyze the effect of the investment on South Korean economy, we constructed the inter-industry relation table of South Korea for year 2013 and used the demand-driven model for inter-industry analysis. As a result, production, added-value and employment inducement coefficients of the investment in the natural gas industry were calculated as 2.02073, 0.62697 and 8.99409 respectively.

The Dynamics of Film Genre Box Office Success: Macro-Economic Conditions, Fashion Momentum, and Inter-Genre Competition (영화 장르 흥행의 동학: 거시경제, 유행의 동력, 장르 간 경쟁의 효과)

  • Dong-Il Jung;Yeseul Kim;Chaewon Ahn;Youngmin Park
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.389-397
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    • 2023
  • This study examines how macro-economic conditions, fashion momentum, and inter-genre competition affect movie genre's popularity, thus shaping fashion trends in the feature film market in Korea. Using panel data analysis of genre-specific audience sizes with 6 genre cateories and 132 monthly time points, we found that favorable economic conditions generate the fashion trend in the action/crime genre, while the deterioration of the economic conditions leads to the decline of action/crime genre. The finding implies that economic situations influence cultural consumers' psychological states, which in turn shape the fashion trend in certain direction. Furthermore, we found that the action/crime genre has a greater fashion momentum and its competitive power is stronger than other genres, suggesting that this genre has longer fashion cycle even if other genres rise to the top in their popularity. We argue that such enlengthened fahion cycle and competitive stength of the action/crime genre are associated with its breadth of niche width and audience loyalty. Scholarly and practical implications are discussed.

Economic and Environmental Effect Analysis of Rhodium Recycling System (로듐 재자원화의 경제적 및 환경적 효과 분석)

  • Seong You Lee;Kayoung Shin;Doo Hwan Kim;Yong Woo Hwang;Hong-Yoon Kang;Sung Min Hong;Da-Yeon Kim
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.45-56
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzed the economic and environmental effect of recycling rhodium used in the non-catalytic field. As an analysis methodology, economic effect analysis applied cost-benefit analysis and resource-saving effect analysis and the environmental effect analysis applied life cycle assessment (LCA). The results show that from an economic point of view, the cost-benefit ratio was 1.28, which was feasible, and the cost reduction was 237,000 won based on 1 g of rhodium recycled and the amount of rhodium recycled was 7.17 billion won in 2025. As for the environmental effect, the greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions were compared between the case of recycling based on rhodium 1 kg and the case of overseas sales. The calculation results show that based on rhodium 1 kg, greenhouse gas emissions were reduced by 99.8%, from 65 kg CO2eq./kg-Rh when recycling to 28,800 kg CO2eq. when sold overseas. The results obtained from this study could suggest that rhodium recycling is necessary in Korea where resources are scarce by analyzing the economic and environmental effect of recycling rhodium used in the non-catalytic field.

How to Recover From the Great Recession: The Case of a Two-Sector Small Open Economy with Traded and Non-Traded Capital

  • Jeon, Jong-Kyou
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.161-206
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    • 2013
  • Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the world economy has been suffering from the Great Recession characterized by high and persistent unemployment as well as drastic fall in asset prices. Real business cycle theory or new-Keynesian economics which has been the dominant paradigm in macroeconomics for the last four decades is unable to explain the high and persistent unemployment during the Great Recession. This implies that the economics of Keynes should be taken seriously again as a tool to explain the Great Recession. Farmer (2012) proposes a new way of interpreting the economics of Keynes by providing it with a solid micro-foundation based on labor markets with search. According to Farmer (2012), aggregate economic activity independently depends on the long-term self-fulfilling expectations about the stock prices. As a consequence, the government or the central bank should implement a policy that influences the public's confidence about the stock market. For an open economy like the Korean economy, it is not only stock price but also the price of asset such as house that matters more for the aggregate economic activity. Households in the Korean economy hold more than 70 percent of their wealth in the form of real estate asset, especially housing asset. This makes the public's confidence about the future prices of houses even more important in explaining the business cycles of the Korean economy. Policymakers should implement policies to improve the confidence of households about the housing market to recover from the recession caused by a fall in house prices. Little theoretical work has been done in explaining fluctuations in the aggregate economic activity from the point of house prices. This paper develops a small open economy model with traded and non-traded capital based on Farmer (2012) and shows that the aggregate economic activity also independently depends on the households' self-fulfilling expectations about the future prices of non-traded asset such as houses.

A Study for Determining Optimal Economic Life of the Domestic Financial Information Systems Based on Data (데이터를 기반으로 한 국내 금융권 정보시스템의 최적 경제수명주기 모델에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Sungsik;Hahm, Yukun;Lee, Seojun
    • Informatization Policy
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.85-105
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    • 2012
  • So far, the importance of informatization, as well as investment into it, has been growing steadily. Due to the uncertainties and risks in adopting information technologies, systematic decision-making is definitely needed in investing in a large scale information system. Based on the existing theories about the economic life span of information systems and in consideration of the actual cost involved in the adoption and operation of the systems by the financial institutions in Korea, this study presents the optimal economic life span for all types of information systems in terms of the economic cost and generalizes the optimal life span. The ultimate purpose of this study is to develop a model that could be used in anticipating the timing of economic replacement of the information system of the same type and making decisions on IT investment.

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A Study on Zero Pay Image Recognition Using Big Data Analysis

  • Kim, Myung-He;Ryu, Ki-Hwan
    • International Journal of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.193-204
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    • 2022
  • The 2018 Seoul Zero Pay is a policy actively promoted by the government as an economic stimulus package for small business owners and the self-employed who are experiencing economic depression due to COVID-19. However, the controversy over the effectiveness of Zero Pay continues even after two years have passed since the implementation of the policy. Zero Pay is a joint QR code mobile payment service introduced by the government, Seoul city, financial companies, and private simple payment providers to reduce the burden of card merchant fees for small business owners and self-employed people who are experiencing economic difficulties due to the economic downturn., it was attempted in the direction of economic revitalization for the return of alleyways[1]. Therefore, this study intends to draw implications for improvement measures so that the ongoing zero-pay can be further activated and the economy can be settled normally. The analysis results of this study are as follows. First, it shows the effect of increasing the income of small business owners by inducing consumption in alleyways through the economic revitalization policy of Zero Pay. Second, the issuance and distribution of Zero Pay helps to revitalize the local economy and contribute to the establishment of a virtuous cycle system. Third, stable operation is being realized by the introduction of blockchain technology to the Zero Pay platform. In terms of academic significance, the direction of Zero Pay's policies and systems was able to identify changes in the use of Zero Pay through big data analysis. The implementation of the zero-pay policy is in its infancy, and there are limitations in factors for examining the consumer image perception of zero-pay as there are insufficient prior studies. Therefore, continuous follow-up research on Zero Pay should be conducted.

On the Pre-Cambrian Stratigraphy of Eastern Asia (동아(東亞)의 선(先)캠브리아계(系)의 층서(層序)에 관(關)하여)

  • Son, Chi Moo
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 1971
  • Summarizing the past and recent data on pre-Cambrian System in Eastern Asia, it can be concluded that the pre-Cambrian System are composed of the sediments of having four cycles of sedimentation. It is also known that most of pre-Cambrian Systems known so far belong to either one of transgression facies or regression facies in the four sedimentation cycles. The pre-Cambrian Systems can be divided into four stages, that is, Sinian, Hutoan, Liahoan, and Taishanian stage. It is supposed that all pre-Cambrian Systems in Korea will belong to one of these four cycle sedimentations. Therefore, the reasonable way of study of Korean pre-Cambrian Systems is to investigate which stage they belong to.

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Contribution of institutional shocks to Tunisian macroeconomic fluctuations: Structural VAR approach

  • Zouhaier, Hadhek
    • East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.8-16
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: The objective of this paper is to identify and assess the contribution of budgetary, monetary and institutional shocks affecting the Tunisian economy over the period 1976-2003. The methodology used is vector autoregressive models and structural recent techniques for the analysis of time series related. The empirical results show a significant relationship between the supply shock and institutions on the one hand, and between institutional shocks and economic activity on the other hand. Research Design, Data and Methodology: As part of this section we will try to identify and assess the contribution of various shocks to macroeconomic variables' fluctuations for the Tunisian economy. The study period is: 1976-2003 and observations are annual. Results: The real business cycle theory argues that fluctuations in aggregate economic activity are the result of the interaction of the only real factors namely agents' preferences, technological opportunities, factor endowments and possibly certain institutional constraints. Conclusions: The lowest contribution to the variability of these rights is the monetary shock. As for "civil liberties", the largest share of their variability is the shock relating to the "political rights" during the first four periods .

Characterization of behaviors using electric pulse for phase switching operation of Ge2Sb2Te5 material

  • Lee, Hyeon-Cheol;Choe, Du-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2016.02a
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    • pp.322-322
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    • 2016
  • Phase change memory (PCM) has attracted much attention as one of the most promising candidates for next-generation nonvolatile memory. In that regard, the purposes of the study are to propose reference of effective pulse parameter to control phase switching operation and to invest the effect of nitrogen doped in PCM materials for improved cycling stability and economic energy consumption. Switching operation of PCM is affected by electric pulse parameter and as shown in figure.1 are composed to RT(rising time), ST(setting time), FT(falling time) and the effect of these parameter was precisely investigated. Transmission electron microscope (TEM) was used to confirm fine structure and retention cycle test was conducted to confirm reliability. Finally improvement reliability and economic power consumption in quantitatively are obtainable by optimum pulse parameter and nitrogen doping in GST material. these study is related to the engineering background of other semiconductor industries and it have confirmed to possibility further applications.

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