• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic cycle

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An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship among Innovation Cycle, Investment Cycle and Business Cycle in Frequency Domain (혁신주기, 투자주기 그리고 경기변동에 관한 실증분석)

  • 조상섭;이장우
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.129-140
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    • 2002
  • This study is try to do the empirical tests on the relationship among innovation cycle, investment cycle, and business cycle suggested in recent economic growth models. We apply co-spectra analysis to estimate dynamic correlations in the extraction HP filtered variables and first difference filtered variables in our data set. Our empirical results are; (i) an existing asynchronization between innovation cycle and investment cycle, (ii) in the long frequency, an existing positive correlation between innovation cycle and business cycle, (iii) in the short frequency, however, a finding the high negative correlation between the two cycle. Our empirical findings support the recent growth through cycle models and suggest some economic policy implementations for economic stabilization during a severe business cycle.

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Analysis of Economic Life Cycle for Hydro-Generator Based on Annual Equivalent Cost Method (연간등가비용법을 이용한 수력발전기의 경제적 수명주기 분석)

  • Lee, Sung-Hun;Chang, Jeong-Ho;Kim, Jin-O;Lee, Heung-Ho
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.60 no.11
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    • pp.1993-1999
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    • 2011
  • Today, the power utilities is setting on the slow load growth and the aging of power equipment, and then could spend the efforts on the stability of system performance. Asset management may be defined as the process of maximizing corporate profit by maximizing performance and minimizing cost over the entire life cycle of power equipment. Therefore, asset management is great way to fulfill the economic investment and the stability of system performance. This paper presents the application of effective asset managem ent from an economic perspective. A proposed method is considering the life cycle analysis using life cycle cost methodology for hydro-generator during the total life cycle. The life cycle cost methodology include a way to calculating maintenance and operating costs. The proposed method will be expected to play an important role in investment decision making considering economic evaluation.

A Study on the Economic Life Cycle of Training Airplane in 'H' University ('H'대학교 훈련용 항공기의 경제적 수명주기에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Jo-Won;Choi, Se-Jong;Eun, Hee-Bong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.57-68
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    • 2002
  • The economical aspects should be evaluated to decide the LCC(Life Cycle Cost) of the long life facilities or equipments. Airplane operators evaluate the economical aspects to decide whether they maintain the existing airplane or substitute the new one. This paper presents economic life cycle and economic life cost for both Cessna 172R and Mooney 20J that are operated for flight training in 'H' University. The residual value that is used to calculate the capital recovery rate of the airplane is calculated based on the data from Blue Book published in USA. The annual equivalent on operation cost is calculated based on the 500 flight hours per year which is the annual flight hour for the airplane in 'H' university. This paper showed that economic life cycle of Cessna 172R is nine years since it was introduced in 2001, and Mooney 20J which was introduced in 1991 exceeds the economic life cycle in 2002.

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A Study on Determination for An Economic Life-cycle of the K-1 Tank (K-1 전차의 경제 수명 결정에 관한 연구)

  • 문형선;김충영
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.138-150
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    • 1997
  • The life-cycle of the K-1 tank has been 10 years simply applying that of the U.S. M-1 tank. Therefore, this paper is focused on determination of an economic life-cycle for the K-1 tanks. The current operation cost is adjusted by interest rate and the depreciation cost is applied in this study for more reliable estimation of the life-cycle cost. The Equivalent Annual Method is utilized and then various regression techniques are applied for deriving an effective economic life-cycle. The economic life-cycle of the K-1 tank results in 13 years in this study. considering 95% confidence interval, the life cycle of the K-1 tank is between 10.5 years and 15.5 years.

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A Study of Business Cycle Index Using Dynamic Factor Model (동태적 요인모형을 이용한 경기동행지수 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Na, In-Gang;Sonn, Yang-Hoon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.903-924
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    • 2000
  • This paper examines the alternative method to measure the state of overall economic activity. The macroeconomic variables, used for business cycle, take more than a month after a period for collection and aggregation. The electricity generation data is compiled in mechanical ways just after the period. Based on this fact, we develop the two stage estimation method for coincident economic indicators in order to detect the business cycle in an earlier period, using Stock-Watson's Dynamic Factor Model. Using monthly data from 1970 to 1999, it is found that the experimental coincidence economic indicators are well-fitted to data and also that the estimates of two stage estimation method have good explanatory power, equivalent to the experimental coincidence economic indicators. While the RMSE of coincidence economic indicators is found to be 1.27%, that of the experimental coincidence economic indicators is found to be 1.31% and that of the two stage estimation method is around 1.44%. If we take consideration into the fact that it measures the business cycle in one month earlier, we come to the conclusion that the two stage estimation is of great use.

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Changes in the Business Cycle of the Korean Economy: Evidence and Explanations (한국 경기변동의 특징 및 안정성에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Jaejoon
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.47-85
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    • 2009
  • With a relatively simple quantitative method, this study comprehensively analyzes the characteristics related to business cycles represented by macroeconomic variables of Korea since 1970. This empirical analysis deals with roughly following three topics: How to identify cyclical component with respect to trend; with what characteristics and how the economic variables of each sector move with in the phases of business cycle, and; whether there are signs of a structural change in the phases of business cycle. Section 2 discusses how to identify trends and cycle components, the basis assumption for the analysis of business cycle. Like the Korean economy, where a relatively high growth rate has been maintained, it is appropriate to determine its economic recession based on the fall in the growth trend, not in the absolute level of real output. And, it is necessary to apply the concept of growth cycle against a traditional concept of business cycle. Accordingly the setting of growth trend is of preliminary importance in identifying cyclical fluctuations. The analysis of Korea's GDP data since 1970, the decomposition of trends and cycles through the Band-pass filter is found to appropriately identify the actual phases of busyness cycle. Section 3 analyzes what particular relationship various economic variables have with output fluctuations during the phases of economic cycle, using the corss-correlation coefficients and prediction contribution. Section 4 monitors the stability of the phases of Korea's business cycle and quantitatively verifies whether there is a structural break, and then reviews the characteristics of variations in each sector. And, stylized facts observed through these studies are summarized in the conclusion. The macroeconomic stability of Korea, in particular, is found to continue to improve since 1970, except for the financial crisis period. Not only that, it is found that its volatility of economic growth rate as well as inflation have been reduced gradually. Meanwhile, until recently since 2000, the volatility in domestic demand has remained stable, while that in exports and imports has been increased slightly. But, in an over all perspective, Korea's business cycle variation is on the decline due to shorter response period to shocks and the formation of complementary relationship among economic sectors.

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A Study on the Impact of Business Cycle on Corporate Credit Spreads (글로벌 회사채 스프레드에 대한 경기요인 영향력 분석: 기업 신용스프레드에 대한 경기사이클의 설명력 추정을 중심으로)

  • Jae-Yong Choi
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.221-240
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - This paper investigates how business cycle impacts on corporate credit spreads since global financial crisis. Furthermore, it tests how the impact changes by the phase of the cycle. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected dataset from Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index through the Bloomberg. It conducted multi-regression analysis by projecting business cycle using Hodrick-Prescott filtering and various cyclical variables, while ran dynamic analysis of 5-variable Vector Error Correction Model to confirm the robustness of the test. Findings - First, it proves to be statistically significant that corporate credit spreads have moved countercyclicaly since the crisis. Second, It indicates that the corporate credit spread's countercyclicality to the macroeconomic changes works symmetrically by the phase of the cycle. Third, the VECM supports that business cycle's impact on the spreads maintains more sustainably than other explanatory variable does in the model. Research implications or Originality - It becomes more appealing to accurately measure the real economic impact on corporate credit spreads as the interaction between credit and business cycle deepens. The economic impact on the spreads works symmetrically by boom and bust, which implies that the market stress could impact as another negative driver during the bust. Finally, the business cycle's sustainable impact on the spreads supports the fact that the economic recovery is the key driver for the resilience of credit cycle.

Economic Evaluation by Compared Battery Energy Storage System(BESS) and Conventional Combined Cycle of power Generation Cost (복합화력발전시스템과의 발전원가 비교에 의한 전지전력저장시스템의 경제성 분석)

  • Kim, Eung-Sang;Kim, Ji-Won
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.241-246
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    • 1999
  • This paper describes the economic evaluation of battery energy storage system(BESS) for the domestic application. Application target is decided on conventional combined cycle of domestic and we analyzed economics that compared conventional combined cycle with power generation cost in development and the commercialized in case that establish it on utility and customer, urban and rural. The result shows that about the same conventional combined cycle of Anyang, Bundang and Pyungtak but more economical than seoincheon conventional combined cycle. And, in case of capacity enlargment and using the maintenance free battery more economical than conventional system.

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An Economic Order Quantity Model under Random Life Cycle (불확실한 수명주기의 제품에서의 경제적 주문량 모형)

  • Yun, Won-Young;Moon, Il-Kyeong
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.73-77
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    • 1993
  • This paper considers an Economic Order Quantity Model under random life cycle. It is assumed that the life cycle of the product is unknown; a random variable. Three cost parameters are considered; ordering cost, inventory carrying cost and salvage cost. Expected total cost is the optimization criterion. We show that the optimal cycle length is unique and finite, and present a simple line search method to find an optimal cycle length.

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A Study on the Economic Analysis of LNG Combined Cycle Thermal Power Plant in Cost Based Pool Electricity Markets (변동비반영 발전경쟁시장에서 LNG-복합 화력발전소의 경제성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Cheon-Ho;Han, Seok-Man;Chung, Koo-Hyung;Kang, Dong-Ju;Kim, Bal-Ho H.
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.57 no.8
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    • pp.1327-1333
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    • 2008
  • Since Cost Based Pool markets has been continued to power markets, Genco. needs economic analysis about investment in power plants. Particularly most Private Genco.s have presently a construction plan about LNG combined cycle thermal power plants. In this paper, we propose a economic analysis method of LNG combined cycle thermal power plants using Economic Dispatch and Optimal Power Flow in CBP markets. Also we develope computation model using it for decision making to build a plant. This method can consider a variation of power facility like power plants and transmission lines in CBP markets. Finally, this dissertation provides a relevant case study to confirm the effect of cost factor to economical efficiency.