• International Area Studies Review
• /
• v.13 no.2
• /
• pp.66-88
• /
• 2009

This paper studies optimal discretionary monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty in the housing sector. In particular, we allow two possible regimes regarding the evolution of housing price inflation and the effects of housing price inflation on the aggregate demand. Estimation results with the US data confirm the presence of two distinctive regimes, one 'normal' and the other more akin to the housing price 'bubble' state. The optimal policy is 'asymmetric' in that the optimal responses in the 'normal' regime require the central bank to lean against the wind to inflationary pressure from CPI and housing inflation, while the central bank is recommended to accommodate it in the other regime.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.20 no.3
• /
• pp.97-104
• /
• 2019

The construction industry is heavily dependent on labor force as automation to building constructions is difficult due to its characteristics such on-site production, custom manufacturing production. Thus, while securing and fostering high-quality functional manpower for stable construction work are significant, the construction workforce has been persistently lacking compared to demand. Young workers are reluctant to enter the construction industry due to high labor intensity, unstable employment structure, and uncertainty for the future. The employment rate for new jobs in the construction industry is half as high as in others. Currently, the departments related to construction are organized in specialized high school to conduct training for young workers. The graduates have a low ratio of employment rate to the construction industry and functional capacities fallen short of expectations. In this study, the education and training conditions of specialized high schools were analyzed to derive problems and key improvements of the education system were drawn. As an improvement for the analysis results, it provides solutions such as giving advantages of previous education experience, expand industry-academic cooperation with businesses, and expand links with external educational institutions.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.20 no.1
• /
• pp.71-86
• /
• 2021

This paper focuses on the development and assessment of the expected damage for the rocking response of rigid anchored blocks, with irregular geometry and non-uniform mass distribution, considering the site conditions and the seismicity of Mexico City. The non-linear behavior of the restrainers is incorporated to evaluate the pure tension and tension-shear failure mechanisms. A probabilistic framework is performed covering a wide range of block sizes, slenderness ratios and eccentricities using physics-based ground motion simulation. In order to incorporate the uncertainties related to the propagation of far-field earthquakes with a significant contribution to the seismic hazard at study sites, it was simulated a set of scenarios using a stochastic summation methods of small-earthquakes records, considered as Empirical Green's Function (EGFs). As Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP), the absolute value of the maximum block rotation normalized by the body slenderness, as a function of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) is adopted. The results show that anchorages are more efficient for blocks with slenderness ratio between two and three, while slenderness above four provide a better stability when they are not restrained. Besides, there is a range of peak intensities where anchored blocks located in soft soils are less vulnerable with respect to those located in firm soils. The procedure used in here allows to take decisions about risk, reliability and resilience assessment of different types of contents, and it is easily adaptable to other seismic environments.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.21 no.6
• /
• pp.552-560
• /
• 2021

With the recent development of the art distribution system, interest in art investment is increasing rather than seeing art as an object of aesthetic utility. Unlike stocks and bonds, the price of artworks has a heterogeneous characteristic that is determined by reflecting both objective and subjective factors, so the uncertainty in price prediction is high. In this study, we used LSTM Recurrent Neural Network deep learning model to predict the auction winning price by inputting the artist, physical and sales charateristics of the Korean artist. According to the result, the RMSE value, which explains the difference between the predicted and actual price by model, was 0.064. Painter Lee Dae Won had the highest predictive power, and Lee Joong Seop had the lowest. The results suggest the art market becomes more active as investment goods and demand for auction winning price increases.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.45 no.4
• /
• pp.199-209
• /
• 2022

As the uncertainty of technology development and market needs increases due to changes in the global business environment, the interest and demand for R&D activities of individual companies are increasing. To respond to these environmental changes, technology commercialization players are paying great attention to enhancing the qualitative competitiveness of R&D. In particular, R&D companies in the marine and fishery sector face many difficulties compared to other industries. For example, the R&D environment is barren, it is challenging to secure R&D human resources, and it is facing a somewhat more difficult environment compared to other sectors, such as the difficulty in maintaining R&D continuity due to the turnover rate of researchers. In this study, based on the empirical data and patent status of private companies closely related to the R&D technology status, big data analysis, and simulation analysis methods were used to identify the relative position of individual companies' R&D capabilities and industrial perspectives. In this study, based on industrial evidence and patent applications closely related to the R&D technology status, the R&D capabilities of individual companies were evaluated using extensive data analysis and simulation analysis methods, and a statistical test was performed to analyze if there were differences in capabilities from an industrial point of view. At this time, the industries to be analyzed were based on all sectors, the maritime industry, the fisheries industry, and the maritime industry integration sector. In conclusion, it was analyzed that there was a certain level of difference in the R&D capabilities of individual companies in each industry sector, Therefore when developing a future R&D capability system, it was confirmed that it was necessary to separate the population for each industry and establish a strategy.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.46 no.4
• /
• pp.189-204
• /
• 2021

The fourth industrial revolution is affecting the industry as a whole, and the current logistics industry is coexisting with crises and opportunities. As part of overcoming this situation, the online platformization of the logistics market has recently been rapidly taking place, and the growth of e-commerce around developed countries has emerged as a demand for flexible freight services that can send and receive cargo anywhere and anytime at appropriate cost. However, the logistics industry has not been able to change rapidly in line with the demands of the market as it is immersed in traditional transportation transactions. Thus, the digital transformation of the freight market has become urgent to address problems such as uncertainty over traditionally closed and conservative freight market transaction processes and the lack of reliability caused by information asymmetry. Therefore, innovative domestic and foreign companies are attempting to establish a new way of transporting cargo, especially a marketplace way of connecting suppliers and consumers. Current status analysis and case studies were conducted through existing literature surveys, and prior research on freight market place selection factors was previewed, and the selection factors were stratified into five upper and 19 lower factors. Through this study, it is expected that improvements for sustainable growth of freight marketplace companies will be derived and that it will be a basic study of establishing management strategies through marketplace operation and quality control. In addition, it is deemed that the priority of customer requirements can be actively accepted, providing an opportunity to actively respond and strengthen corporate competitiveness.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.46 no.2
• /
• pp.19-38
• /
• 2021

This study aims to analyze the foreign asset leverage effect on Korean oil & gas companies' foreign profits and to maintain the appropriate foreign asset volume for reducing exchange risk. For a long time, large Korean companies, including oil companies, overheld foreign currency liabilities. For this reason, most large companies have been burdened to hedge exchange risk and this excess limit holding deteriorated total profit and reduced foreign currency asset management efficiency. Our paper proceeds in presenting a three-stage analysis considering diversified exchange risk factors through estimation on transformation of foreign transactions a/c including annual trends of foreign asset and industry specifics. We also supplement incomplete the estimation method through a practical hedging case investigation. Our research parts are differentiated on the analyzing four periods considering period-specifics The FER value of the oil firms ranged from -0.3 to +2.3 over the entire period. The results of the FER Value are volatile and irregular; those results do not represent the industry standard comparative index. The Korean oil firms are over the credit limit without accurate prediction and finance high interest rate funds from foreign-owned banks on the basis on a biased relationship. Since the IMF crisis, liabilities of global firms have decreased. Above all, oil firms need to finance a minimum limit without opportunity losses on the demand forecast and prepare for uncertainty in the market. To reduce exchange risk from the over-the-limit position, we must consider factors that affect the corporate exchange risk on the entire business process, including the contract phase.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.34 no.2
• /
• pp.55-93
• /
• 2012

In Korea, energy policies are actualized through various energy-related plans. Recently, however, as high-ranking plans, which are very vision-oriented, continually set higher sector-by-sector goals, subordinate action plans, which require consistency, encounter distortions in their establishment process. Also, each subordinate action plan reveals limitations in terms of securing flexibility of the plan in responding to uncertainties of the future. These problems pose potential risks such as causing huge social costs. In this regard, with an aim to provide empirical evidence for discussions on improving the procedure for developing and executing Korea's energy plans, this study mainly analyzes the Basic Plan on Electricity Demand and Supply-one of the most important subordinate action plans-in order to explain the problems of the Basic Plan in a logical manner, and potential problems that could occur in the process of sustaining consistency between the Basic Plan and its higher-ranking plans. Further, this paper estimates the scale of social costs caused by those problems assuming realistic conditions. According to the result, in the case of where maximum electric power is estimated to be 7% (15%) less than the actual amount in the Basic Plan on Electricity Demand and Supply, the annual generation cost will rise by 286 billion won and (1.2 trillion won) in 2020. Such social costs are found to occur even when establishing and executing the Basic plan according to the target goal set by its higher-ranking plan, the National Energy Master Plan. In addition, when another higher-ranking GHG reduction master plan requires the electricity sector to reduce emissions by additional 5% in the GHG emissions from the right mix in electricity generation with 'zero' cost of carbon emission, the annual generation cost will rise by approximately 915 billion won in 2020. On the other hand, the analysis finds that since economic feasibility of electric powers in Korea varies significantly depending on their type, Korea is expected to face very small potential social costs caused by uncertainties over the future price of carbon dioxide in the process of establishing the Basic Plan.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.19 no.1
• /
• pp.35-55
• /
• 2013

Information technology is a critical resource necessary for any company hoping to support and realize its strategic goals, which contribute to growth promotion and sustainable development. The selection of information technology and its strategic use are imperative for the enhanced performance of every aspect of company management, leading a wide range of companies to have invested continuously in information technology. Despite researchers, managers, and policy makers' keen interest in how information technology contributes to organizational performance, there is uncertainty and debate about the result of information technology investment. In other words, researchers and managers cannot easily identify the independent factors that can impact the investment performance of information technology. This is mainly owing to the fact that many factors, ranging from the internal components of a company, strategies, and external customers, are interconnected with the investment performance of information technology. Using an agent-based simulation technique, this research extracts factors expected to affect investment performance on information technology, simplifies the analyses of their relationship with economic modeling, and examines the performance dependent on changes in the factors. In terms of economic modeling, I expand the model that highlights the way in which product quality moderates the relationship between information technology investments and economic performance (Thatcher and Pingry, 2004) by considering the cost of information technology investment and the demand creation resulting from product quality enhancement. For quality enhancement and its consequences for demand creation, I apply the concept of information quality and decision-maker quality (Raghunathan, 1999). This concept implies that the investment on information technology improves the quality of information, which, in turn, improves decision quality and performance, thus enhancing the level of product or service quality. Additionally, I consider the effect of word of mouth among consumers, which creates new demand for a product or service through the information diffusion effect. This demand creation is analyzed with an agent-based simulation model that is widely used for network analyses. Results show that the investment on information technology enhances the quality of a company's product or service, which indirectly affects the economic performance of that company, particularly with regard to factors such as consumer surplus, company profit, and company productivity. Specifically, when a company makes its initial investment in information technology, the resultant increase in the quality of a company's product or service immediately has a positive effect on consumer surplus, but the investment cost has a negative effect on company productivity and profit. As time goes by, the enhancement of the quality of that company's product or service creates new consumer demand through the information diffusion effect. Finally, the new demand positively affects the company's profit and productivity. In terms of the investment strategy for information technology, this study's results also reveal that the selection of information technology needs to be based on analysis of service and the network effect of customers, and demonstrate that information technology implementation should fit into the company's business strategy. Specifically, if a company seeks the short-term enhancement of company performance, it needs to have a one-shot strategy (making a large investment at one time). On the other hand, if a company seeks a long-term sustainable profit structure, it needs to have a split strategy (making several small investments at different times). The findings from this study make several contributions to the literature. In terms of methodology, the study integrates both economic modeling and simulation technique in order to overcome the limitations of each methodology. It also indicates the mediating effect of product quality on the relationship between information technology and the performance of a company. Finally, it analyzes the effect of information technology investment strategies and information diffusion among consumers on the investment performance of information technology.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
• /
• v.31 no.5
• /
• pp.449-459
• /
• 2015

The conventional National Forest Inventory(NFI)-based forest carbon stock estimation method is suitable for national-scale estimation, but is not for regional-scale estimation due to the lack of NFI plots. In this study, for the purpose of regional-scale carbon stock estimation, we created grid-based forest carbon stock maps using spatial ancillary data and two types of up-scaling methods. Chungnam province was chosen to represent the study area and for which the $5^{th}$ NFI (2006~2009) data was collected. The first method (method 1) selects forest type map as ancillary data and uses regression model for forest carbon stock estimation, whereas the second method (method 2) uses satellite imagery and k-Nearest Neighbor(k-NN) algorithm. Additionally, in order to consider uncertainty effects, the final AGB carbon stock maps were generated by performing 200 iterative processes with Monte Carlo simulation. As a result, compared to the NFI-based estimation(21,136,911 tonC), the total carbon stock was over-estimated by method 1(22,948,151 tonC), but was under-estimated by method 2(19,750,315 tonC). In the paired T-test with 186 independent data, the average carbon stock estimation by the NFI-based method was statistically different from method2(p<0.01), but was not different from method1(p>0.01). In particular, by means of Monte Carlo simulation, it was found that the smoothing effect of k-NN algorithm and mis-registration error between NFI plots and satellite image can lead to large uncertainty in carbon stock estimation. Although method 1 was found suitable for carbon stock estimation of forest stands that feature heterogeneous trees in Korea, satellite-based method is still in demand to provide periodic estimates of un-investigated, large forest area. In these respects, future work will focus on spatial and temporal extent of study area and robust carbon stock estimation with various satellite images and estimation methods.