• Title/Summary/Keyword: demand uncertainty

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Behavior in Agricultural Markets under Environmental Uncertainty : A Theoretical Approach Based on von Thunen`s Framework (불확실한 환경조건에서 농업시장의 행동 : 튀넨 모델을 배경으로한 이론적 접근)

  • Lee, Sang-Yool;Mulligan, Gordon F.
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.648-661
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    • 1996
  • The traditional von Thunen model has various shortcomings. Perhaps the greatest dificiency is the model's sole emphasis on the production side of the economy;that is, the agricultural markets are rarely closed for demand. In thes paoer a closed model for a three-activity, two-dimensional economy is developed. Equillibrium solutions are generated for prices, land areas, and outputs. Comparative static analysis then follows. Attention is next given to a maximum expected-return model under environmental uncertainty. Land uses for the traditional model and the closed model are then compared.

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In Search of "Excess Competition" (과당경쟁(過當競爭)과 정부규제(政府規制))

  • Nam, II-chong;Kim, Jong-seok
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.31-57
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    • 1991
  • Korean firms of all sizes, from virtually every industry, have used and are using the term "excessive competition" to describe the state of their industry and to call for government interventions. Moreover, the Korean government has frequently responded to such calls in various ways favorable to the firms, such as controlling entry, curbing capacity investments, or allowing collusion. Despite such interventions' impact on the overall efficiency on the Korean economy as well as on the wealth distribution among diverse groups of economic agents, the term "excessive competition", the basis for the interventions, has so far escaped rigorous scrutiny. The objective of this paper is to clarify the notion of "excessive competition" and "over-investment" which usually accompanies "excessive competition", and to examine the circumstances under which they might occur. We first survey the cases where the terms are most widely used and proceed to examine those cases to determine if competition is indeed excessive, and if so, what causes "excessive competition". Our main concern deals with the case in which the firms must make investment decisions that involve large sunk costs while facing uncertain demand. In order to analyze this case, we developed a two period model of capacity precommitment and the ensuing competition. In the first period, oligopolistic firms make capacity investments that are irreversible. Demand is uncertain in period 1 and only the distribution is known. Thus, firms must make investment decisions under uncertainty. In the second period, demand is realized, and the firms compete with quantity under realized demand and capacity constraints. In the above setting, we find that there is "no over-investment," en ante, and there is "no excessive competition," ex post. As measured by the information available in period 1, expected return from investment of a firm is non-negative, overall industry capacity does not exceed the socially optimal level, and competition in the second period yields an outcome that gives each operating firm a non-negative second period profit. Thus, neither "excessive competition" nor "over-investment" is possible. This result will generally hold true if there is no externality and if the industry is not a natural monopoly. We also extend this result by examining a model in which the government is an active participant in the game with a well defined preference. Analysis of this model shows that over-investment arises if the government cannot credibly precommit itself to non-intervention when ex post idle capacity occurs, due to socio-political reasons. Firms invest in capacities that exceed socially optimal levels in this case because they correctly expect that the government will find it optimal for itself to intervene once over-investment and ensuing financial problems for the firms occur. Such planned over-investment and ensuing government intervention are the generic problems under the current system. These problems are expected to be repeated in many industries in years to come, causing a significant loss of welfare in the long run. As a remedy to this problem, we recommend a non-intervention policy by the government which creates and utilizes uncertainty. Based upon an argument which is essentially the same as that of Kreps and Wilson in the context of a chain-store game, we show that maintaining a consistent non-intervention policy will deter a planned over-investment by firms in the long run. We believe that the results obtained in this paper has a direct bearing on the public policies relating to many industries including the petrochemical industry that is currently in the center of heated debates.

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Production and Remanufacturing Planning under Uncertain Supply of Recovery Cores and a Disassemble-to-order Environment (재생품 공급량이 불확실한 주문시분해 환경에서의 생산 및 재제조 계획)

  • Kang, Changmuk
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.43-63
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    • 2013
  • Remanufacturing is a process of recovering end-of-life products into serviceable parts for producing new products. Due to the limited supply of recovery cores to remanufacture, a remanufacturing firm also needs to produce or procure new parts for fulfilling the demand. This paper is targeted for solving the problem of determining the optimal amount of newly produced and remanufacturing parts, which is called production and remanufacturing planning (PRP) problem, under uncertain supply of recovery cores. The new production mitigates the risk of insufficient core supply while it takes more costs than the remanufacturing. The PRP model in this paper also considers disassemble-to-order (DTO) environment, in which multiple kinds of parts are remanufactured from multiple products on order of the parts. Whereas existing studies presents only heuristic solutions for DTO remanufacturing, this paper provides an exact solution for this problem and analytical sensitivity of the involved cost parameters, adopting multi-dimensional newsvendor modeling and stochastic linear programming techniques. The result shows that production and remanufacturing plans for multiple products are mutually dependent, and a change of cost parameters involved in only one part is propagated to all other parts.

Profitability Analysis of ESS with PV Generation (PV연계형 ESS의 설치 규모에 따른 수익영향)

  • Kim, Chang Soo;Choi, Sang Bong
    • Current Photovoltaic Research
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.86-93
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    • 2020
  • The investment in solar and wind generation is rapidly increasing with government's renewable expansion policy and Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS). Since the large penetration of solar and wind generation increases the variability and uncertainty of supply and demand balance in power system, the government is pursuing the policy of supplying energy storage system (ESS) linked to renewable energy. ESS contributes to the ease of transmission and distribution grid by shifting PV generation from daytime to evening hours. Recently, the declining market price of REC as ESS incentive, policies to cut down incentives and limited ESS storage due to fire events lead to the aggravation of long-term profitability, thus working as a barrier of ESS spreading. In this study, the factors affecting the profit of ESS are analyzed and brief indicators are derived. Based on the indicators, the profit changes are analyzed considering the variation of REC market price and REC incentive weights. Based on the profit change with respect to the increase of ESS capacity, economical ESS installation capacity is suggested.

Practical Application of Life-Cycle Cost Effective Design and Rehabilitation of Bridges

  • Cho, HyoNam;Park, KyungHoon;Hwang, YoonGoog;Lee, KwangMin
    • Corrosion Science and Technology
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.72-80
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    • 2004
  • Recently, the demand on the practical application of life-cycle cost effective design and rehabilitation of bridges is rapidly growing in civil engineering practice. However, in spite of impressive progress in the researches on the Life-Cycle Cost (LCC), the most researches have only focused on the theoretical point but did not fully incorporate the critical issues for the practical implementation. Thus, this paper is intended to suggest a systemic integrated approach to the practical application of various LCC methodologies for the design and rehabilitation of bridges, For that purpose, hierarchical definitions of LCC models are presented to categorize the approach of LCC assessment applicable for the practical implementation. And then, an integrated LCC system model is introduced with an emphasis on data uncertainty assessment and user-friendly knowledge-based database for its successful implementation. Finally, in order to demonstrate the LCC effectiveness for design and rehabilitation of real bridge structures, illustrative examples are discussed.

A multimodal adaptive evolution of the N1 method for assessment and design of r.c. framed structures

  • Lenza, Pietro;Ghersi, Aurelio;Marino, Edoardo M.;Pellecchia, Marcello
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.271-284
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    • 2017
  • This paper presents a multimodal adaptive nonlinear static method of analysis that, differently from the nonlinear static methods suggested in seismic codes, does not require the definition of the equivalent Single-Degree-Of-Freedom (SDOF) system to evaluate the seismic response of structures. First, the proposed method is formulated for the assessment of r.c. plane frames and then it is extended to 3D framed structures. Furthermore, the proposed nonlinear static approach is re-elaborated as a displacement-based design method that does not require the use of the behaviour factor and takes into account explicitly the plastic deformation capacity of the structure. Numerical applications to r.c. plane frames and to a 3D framed structure with inplan irregularity are carried out to illustrate the attractive features as well as the limitations of the proposed method. Furthermore, the numerical applications evidence the uncertainty about the suitability of the displacement demand prediction obtained by the nonlinear static methods commonly adopted.

The Effects of Inter-Organizational Relationship Characteristics on Supply Chain Agility: From the Supplier Perspective (조직간 관계특성이 공급사슬 민첩성에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 공급업체 관점으로)

  • Chang, Hwal-Sik;Kim, Chae-Jeong
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.187-214
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    • 2012
  • Supply chain management(SCM) helps firms in integrating their business by collaborating with other value chain partners to meet the unpredictable demand of the end user. Agility is the fundamental characteristic of a supply chain needed for survival in turbulent and volatile markets, which are becoming norms as product life cycles shorten and environmental forces create additional uncertainty resulting in higher risk in the supply chain management. Literature reviews reveals various factors that could affect the agility. The objective of this study is to derive interdependence, partnership, quality of information, joint problem solving, modelize the mutual influential relationship between them, and look into the influential relationship influencing the agility. To test the proposed model, we used a data set generated from survey. Date analysis was conducted using 122 respondents. We used structural equation model (SEM) implemented in partial least square(PLS). The results of this study can be summarized as follows. Interdependence had a significant impact on partnership. Partnership had a significant impact on quality of information and joint problem solving. Quality of information had a significant impact on joint problem solving. Quality of information and joint problem solving had a significant impact on agility. This study diagnoses that Inter-organizational relationship characteristics are important for supply chain agility. Inter-organizational relationship characteristics are considered as an essential factor for supply chain agility.

Locally Initiating Line-Based Object Association in Large Scale Multiple Cameras Environment

  • Cho, Shung-Han;Nam, Yun-Young;Hong, Sang-Jin;Cho, We-Duke
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.358-379
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    • 2010
  • Multiple object association is an important capability in visual surveillance system with multiple cameras. In this paper, we introduce locally initiating line-based object association with the parallel projection camera model, which can be applicable to the situation without the common (ground) plane. The parallel projection camera model supports the camera movement (i.e. panning, tilting and zooming) by using the simple table based compensation for non-ideal camera parameters. We propose the threshold distance based homographic line generation algorithm. This takes account of uncertain parameters such as transformation error, height uncertainty of objects and synchronization issue between cameras. Thus, the proposed algorithm associates multiple objects on demand in the surveillance system where the camera movement dynamically changes. We verify the proposed method with actual image frames. Finally, we discuss the strategy to improve the association performance by using the temporal and spatial redundancy.

Optimal Design of the Nuclear Steam Generator Digital Water Level Control System (증기발생기 디지탈 수위조절 시스템의 최적설계)

  • Lee, Yoon-Joon
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.32-40
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    • 1994
  • A digital control system for the steam generator oater level control is developed using the optimal control technique. To describe the more realistic situation, a feedwater valve actuator of the first order lag is included in the overall control system. The optimal gains are obtained by the LQ method which imposes the constraints on the feedwater valve motion as well as on the deviation between the input demand signal and the output feedwater. Developed also is a Kalman observer on account of the flow measurement uncertainty at low power. And a digital controller on the feedback loop is designed which makes the system maintain the same stability margins for all power ranges. The simulation results show that the optimal digital system has good control characteristics despite the adverse dynamics of the steam generator at low power.

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A Study on the prospect of Sea & Air multi-transport in the perspective of international logistics environment

  • Chung, Tae-Won;Han, Jong-Khil
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.34 no.7
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    • pp.587-594
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    • 2010
  • The positive and negative opinion to cargo demand of Incheon's SAMT in the near future remains cloudy. Considering port and shipping environmental changes and the logistics situation of China which explains the lack of facilities in Chinese airports, the creating of SAMT cargoes of the Incheon region could catches a favorable opportunity to be a logistics hub in the North-East Asia. On the other hand, as open-sky policy and direct-call service has been carried out between China and N.A.(North America), Incheon could cause a loss of competitiveness in SAMT because the enhancement in the aspect of the connectivity of Chinese airlines and shipping lines makes customer sent to last destination their cargoes whenever they want. In the same context, this paper analyses on conditions of domestic and international SAMT and proposes in this uncertainty future forecasting of SAMT of Incheon by scenario planning according to changes in integrated SAMT, measuring the likelihood of final scenario. This study shows the Sea & Air multi-transport volume will have either slight increase or decrease from the current condition. Consequently, RFS expansion and system & service improvement through strong ties with major cities in China will be required in a short run aspect. Nonetheless, we also need to take domestic & international transportation environment into account in the long run.