• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.43 no.4
• /
• pp.59-66
• /
• 2020

In this study, we consider the problem of forecasting the number of inbound foreigners visiting Korea. Forecasting tourism demand is an essential decision to plan related facilities and staffs, thus many studies have been carried out, mainly focusing on the number of inbound or outbound tourists. In order to forecast tourism demand, we use a seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model, as well as a SARIMAX model which additionally comprises an exogenous variable affecting the dependent variable, i.e., tourism demand. For constructing the forecasting model, we use a search procedure that can be used to determine the values of the orders of the SARIMA and SARIMAX. For the exogenous variable, we introduce factors that could cause the tourism demand reduction, such as the 9/11 attack, the SARS and MERS epidemic, and the deployment of THAAD. In this study, we propose a procedure, called Measuring Impact on Demand (MID), where the impact of each factor on tourism demand is measured and the value of the exogenous variable corresponding to the factor is determined based on the measurement. To show the performance of the proposed forecasting method, an empirical analysis was conducted where the monthly number of foreign visitors in 2019 were forecasted. It was shown that the proposed method can find more accurate forecasts than other benchmarks in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
• /
• 2010.06a
• /
• pp.2309-2318
• /
• 2010

It is a plan the government increases a railroad section SOC investment, and to activate railroad construction while a railroad wins the spotlight with green transportation. But an error of the demand forecast that is a base of a railroad investment evaluation follows in occurring big, there is it with an operation with an obstacle of a railroad investment. Case of the Incheon International Airport Railroad which went into operation recently, While a present transportation demand showed about 10% than a demand forecasted in a past conference, it was magnified in a social problem. A lot of research was gone on in road project about traffic demand forecast and error, a study to find out the error cause is an insufficient situation although errors of a railroad occurs big. So, this study looked for errors and causes about trip generation model and modes sharing model of railroad demand forecast but it was defined causes so that it can occur similar problems in the future. Especially it investigated causes after comparing rate of development plan for the realization and O/D size in trip generation model and after comparing rate of modes sharing of past and current and conducting a survey for airport users. In conclusion, it suggested method to reduce errors of railroad demand forecasting in the future.

• Culinary science and hospitality research
• /
• v.5 no.1
• /
• pp.89-101
• /
• 1999

This study attempts to identify the most accurate quantitative forecasting technique for measuring the future level of demand for food ＆ beverage in super deluxe hotel in Seoul, which will subsequently lead to determining the optimal level of purchasing food ＆ beverage. This study, in detail, examines the food purchasing system of H hotel, reviews three rigorous univariate time series models and identify the most accurate forecasting technique. The monthly data ranging from January 1990 to December 1997 (96 observations) were used for the empirical analysis and the 1998 data were left for the comparison with the ex post forecast results. In order to measure the accuracy, MAPE, MAD and RMSE were used as criteria. In this study, Box-Jenkins model was turned out to be the most accurate technique for forecasting hotel food ＆ beverage demand among selected models generating 3.8％ forecast error in average.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
• /
• v.45 no.4
• /
• pp.511-516
• /
• 1996

In this paper, weekly maximum power demand forecasting method in consideration of temperature estimation using a time series model was presented. The method removing weekly, seasonal variations on the load and irregularities variation due to unknown factor was presented. The forecasting model that represent the relations between load and temperature which get a numeral expected temperature based on the past 30 years(1961~1990) temperature was constructed. Effect of holiday was removed by using a weekday change ratio, and irregularities variation was removed by using an autoregressive model. The results of load forecasting show the ability of the method in forecasting with good accuracy without suffering from the effect of seasons and holidays. Percentage error load forecasting of all seasons except summer was obtained below 2 percentage. (author). refs., figs., tabs.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.22 no.6
• /
• pp.675-683
• /
• 2015

In the 21st century, we now face the serious problems of the enormous consumption of the energy resources. Depending on the power consumption increases, both China and South Korea face a reduction in available resources. This paper considers the regression models and time-series models to compare the performance of the forecasting accuracy based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in order to forecast the electricity demand accurately on the short-term period (68 months) data in Northeast China and find the relationship with Korea. Among the models the support vector regression (SVR) model shows superior performance than time-series models for the short-term period data and the time-series models show similar results with the SVR model when we use long-term period data.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
• /
• v.65 no.7
• /
• pp.1115-1120
• /
• 2016

This paper presents the daily load forecasting for special days considering the rate of operation of industrial consumers. The authors analyzed the power consumption pattern for both the special and ordinary days according to the contract power classification of industrial consumers, and selected 400~600 specific consumers for which the rates of operation during special days are needed. Load forecasting for 2014 special days considering the rate of operation of industrial consumers showed a noticeable improvement on forecasting error of daily peak demand, which proved the effectiveness of the survey for the rates of operation during special days of industrial consumers.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
• /
• v.8 no.1
• /
• pp.19-23
• /
• 2017

Energy is a vital resource for the economic growth and the social development for any country. As the industry becomes more sophisticated and the economy more grows, the electricity demand is increasing. So forecasting electricity demand is an important for electricity suppliers. Forecasting electricity demand makes it possible to distribute electricity demand. As the market for Negawatt market began to grow in Korea from 2014, the prediction of electricity consumption demand becomes more important. Moreover, power consumption forecasting provides a way for demand management to be directly or indirectly participated by consumers in the electricity market. We use Genetic Algorithms to predict the energy demand of the fishing industry in Jeju Island by using GDP, per capita gross national income, value add, and domestic electricity consumption from 1999 to 2011. Genetic Algorithm is useful for finding optimal solutions in various fields. In this paper, genetic algorithm finds optimal parameters. The objective is to find the optimal value of the coefficients used to predict the electricity demand and to minimize the error rate between the predicted value and the actual power consumption values.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Next Generation Computing
• /
• v.13 no.4
• /
• pp.7-18
• /
• 2017

Electrical energy is one of the most important energy sources in modern society. Therefore, it is very important to control the supply and demand of electric power. However, the power consumption data needed to predict power demand may include the information about the private behavior of an individual, the analysis of which may raise privacy issues. In this paper, we propose a secure power demand forecasting method where regression analyses on power consumption data are conducted in a trusted execution environment provided by Intel SGX, keeping the power usage pattern of users private. We performed experiments using various regression equations and selected an equation which has the least error rate. We show that the average error rate of the proposed method is lower than those of the previous forecasting methods with privacy protection functionality.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
• /
• v.4 no.1
• /
• pp.57-68
• /
• 1978

In forecasting the demand rate of repair parts for old tank types under the limited historical data, this reportan alyzes which techniques give the smallest forecasting error, also economic repair limits and the return for additional repair costs are formulated as a mathematical model

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.42 no.1
• /
• pp.129-136
• /
• 2019

In this study, we proposed a model for forecasting power energy demand by investigating how outside temperature at a given time affected power consumption and. To this end, we analyzed the time series of power consumption in terms of the power spectrum and found the periodicities of one day and one week. With these periodicities, we investigated two time series of temperature and power consumption, and found, for a given hour, an approximate linear relation between temperature and power consumption. We adopted an exponential smoothing model to examine the effect of the linearity in forecasting the power demand. In particular, we adjusted the exponential smoothing model by using the variation of power consumption due to temperature change. In this way, the proposed model became a mixture of a time series model and a regression model. We demonstrated that the adjusted model outperformed the exponential smoothing model alone in terms of the mean relative percentage error and the root mean square error in the range of 3%~8% and 4kWh~27kWh, respectively. The results of this study can be used to the energy management system in terms of the effective control of the cross usage of the electric energy together with the outside temperature.