• Title/Summary/Keyword: demand estimation

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Contribution analysis of carcass traits and seasonal effect on auction price for Hanwoo steers

  • Kang, Tae Hun;Cho, Seong-Keun;Seo, Jakyeom;Kim, Myunghoo;Kim, Byeong-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.461-469
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    • 2019
  • The aim of this study was to analyze the contribution of carcass traits (backfat thickness, eye muscle area, carcass weight and marbling score) and the season at slaughter to the price (auction and market) using squared semi-partial correlation. The season at slaughter (summer expressed as season_2, autumn as season_3, and winter as season_4) were added into the estimation as dummy variables, and spring was set as a default variable. In this study, the carcass grades of 22,298 Hanwoo steers slaughtered from 2012 to 2017 were used to performmultiple regression analysis. The rankings of the contribution of the carcass traits and the seasons at slaughter to the auction prices were in the order of marbling score (68.63%), season_4 (11.88%), backfat thickness (10.45%), eye muscle area (6.11%), season_3 (2.19%), season_2 (0.45%) and carcass weight (0.28%). (R-square of the regression = 0.4101). The rankings of the contribution to the total prices were in the order of carcass weight (51.74%), marbling score (32.12%), season_4 (6.04%), backfat thickness (5.54%), eye muscle area (3.22%), season_3 (1.14%), and season_2 (0.19%). (R-Square of the regression = 0.6486). As a result, season_3 and season_4 had a negative effect on the auction price and total price. Because of seasonal event such as Korean Thanksgiving Day and Korean New Year's Day on season_3 and season_4, much supply was needed to meet the high demand. Thus, the seasonal effect at slaughter could be another factor to be cosideredin when considering of slaughter or breeding.

A Study on Estimating the Vegetable Cultivation Complex Area using Aerial Photogrammetry (항공사진측량을 이용한 채소주산단지 재배면적 추정 연구)

  • BAE, Kyoung-Ho;HAM, Geon-Woo;LEE, Jeong-Min
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.108-118
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    • 2018
  • Recently, agricultural sector apply ICT technology such as Smart Farm to pursue innovation in the changing situation that is emerging as the fourth industrial revolution. However, this innovation requires techniques for forecasting and analyzing in various data bases and spatial information provides such infrastructure data. In this study, the cultivation area of Chinese cabbage, radish, garlic, onion, and red pepper were calculated and analyzed by year. The purpose of this analysis is to cope with sudden changes in vegetable crops and changes in cultivated area caused by weather changes to supply and demand of major vegetables and price instability. As a result of this study, spatial information based on time series information of vegetable complex will be used as efficient agricultural environment observation data, as well as interpretation of various spatial ranges such as the estimation of cultivation area using remote sensing.

A Study on the Estimation Method of Daily Load Curve for the Optimization Design and Economic Evaluation of Stand-alone Microgrids Based on HOMER Simulation in Off-Grid Limiting the Supply of Electricity (제한급전하는 오프그리드의 독립형 마이크로그리드 최적 설계 및 경제성 평가를 위한 일부하곡선 추정 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Nam, Yong-Hyun;Youn, Seok-Min;Kim, Jung-Hoon;Hwang, Sung-Wook
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.68 no.1
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2019
  • There is a growing interest in various microgrid solutions that supply electricity 24 hours a day to off-grid areas where are not connected with the main grid, and Korea has many positive effects by constructing overseas microgrids as a country operating the emission trading scheme. Since it is not clear how to obtain load curves that is one of the inputs of the HOMER used to design a microgrid optimization plan, or it is necessary to examine whether electricity is supplied to the peak load level of the areas where have not received the electricity benefits from the viewpoint of the demand management, a methodology should be developed to know the load composition ratio and the shape of the daily load curve. In this paper, the relative coefficient and average load information for each load group obtained from the survey are used besides peak load and total average load. A mathematical model is proposed to derive the load composition ratio in the form of a Quadratic Programming and the load forecasting is performed using simple linear regression with future indicators. The effectiveness of the proposed method is confirmed for the Philippine island region supported by Korea Energy Agency and the Asian Development Bank.

Asymmetric Effects of US Housing Price Inflation on Optimal Monetary Policy (미국 주택 가격 상승률의 비대칭성과 최적통화정책)

  • Kim, Jangryoul;Kim, Minyoung;Lim, Gieyoung
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.66-88
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    • 2009
  • This paper studies optimal discretionary monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty in the housing sector. In particular, we allow two possible regimes regarding the evolution of housing price inflation and the effects of housing price inflation on the aggregate demand. Estimation results with the US data confirm the presence of two distinctive regimes, one 'normal' and the other more akin to the housing price 'bubble' state. The optimal policy is 'asymmetric' in that the optimal responses in the 'normal' regime require the central bank to lean against the wind to inflationary pressure from CPI and housing inflation, while the central bank is recommended to accommodate it in the other regime.

A Study on a PCB Manufacturing Plant's Fire Risk Assessment due to the Mitigation of Fire Protection Zone and an Improvement Way through Estimation of Sprinkler Demand Water Flow Rate (방화구획 완화에 따른 PCB공장의 화재위험평가 및 스프링클러 요구살수유량 산정을 통한 기준개선안에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Chan-Wook;Oh, Ryun-Seok;Choi, Jun-Ho
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.56-62
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    • 2019
  • A sprinkler is a fire extinguishing equipment installed in a protected area where a detector or head detects a fire and automatically puts out the fire. However, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's "Regulations on Building Evacuation and Fire Protection Standards, etc." stipulate that fire compartment area should be reduced to three times by installing sprinkler facilities in the case of factories and warehouses. In this study, fire hazard was analyzed for a real PCB factory which mitigated the fire protection zone by sprinkler installation, and the head opening characteristics of sprinkler facilities through computer simulation, installation standards of sprinkler facilities, thermal performance, operating range, and the amount of water sprayed to identify the problems of operation of sprinkler facilities in case of fire, and to suggest the grounds such as required sprinkling flow rate for system improvement.

Estimation of Residual Strength for an Aged Floating Dock (노후화된 플로팅도크의 잔류 구조강도 평가)

  • Seo, Kwang-Cheol;Hong, Taeho;Park, Joo-Shin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.122-129
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    • 2019
  • Due to its nature the manufacturing industry faces a cyclical economy, and therefore there is an urgent need for a companion industry to cope with this cyclic pattern in the long run. The sector suitable for meeting this demand is the repair and shipbuilding industry. In order to operate a shipbuilding repair business, a floating dock is indispensable, and most obsolete floating docks were imported from overseas and operated through repair/maintenance. However, there is no precise guideline for floating dock safety, and most models have been in use for at least 30 years without being required to enter classification at the time of operation. In this study, structural strength analysis was carried out using measured thickness information of aged floating docks, and the residual structural strength of floating docks in operation was analyzed. The main results derived from this study can be referred to as guidelines for the review of the structural safety of similar equipment, and it is expected that an optimal solution will be found within a short time using this method for repair/maintenance.

A Model for Analyzing Time-Varying Passengers' Crowdedness Degree of Subway Platforms Using Smart Card Data (스마트카드자료를 활용한 지하철 승강장 동적 혼잡도 분석모형)

  • Shin, Seongil;Lee, Sangjun;Lee, Changhun
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.49-63
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    • 2019
  • Crowdedness management at subway platforms is essential to improve services, including the prevention of train delays and ensuring passenger safety. Establishing effective crowdedness mitigation measures for platforms requires accurate estimation of the congestion level. There are temporal and spatial constraints since crowdedness on subway platforms is assessed at certain locations every 1-2 years by hand counting. However, smart cards generate real-time big data 24 hours a day and could be used in estimating congestion. This study proposes a model based on data from transit cards to estimate crowdedness dynamically. Crowdedness was defined as demand, which can be translated into passengers dynamically moving along a subway network. The trajectory of an individual passenger can be identified through this model. Passenger flow that concentrates or disperses at a platform is also calculated every minute. Lastly, the platform congestion level is estimated based on effective waiting areas for each platform structure.

Development of Benthic Macroinvertebrates Family-Level Biotic Index for Biological Assessment on Korean Stream Environment (한국의 하천환경 평가를 위한 저서성 대형무척추동물의 과 범주 생물지수 개발)

  • Kong, Dongsoo;Min, Jeong-Ki;Noh, Seong-Yoo
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.152-164
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    • 2019
  • In this study, a Benthic Macroinvertebrates Family Index (BMFI) was developed using 100 indicator groups (99 families including Chironomidae with 2 phena). Families were assigned a score between 1 and 10 depending on their sensitivity to organic pollution. The BMFI was composed of the sensitivity and relative abundance of the indicator taxa. Sensitivity values of each group were generally similar to Biological Monitoring Working Party (BMWP) scores or Walley, Hawkes, Paisley, Trigg (WHPT) scores of UK, Japanese BMWP scores, and the FBI tolerance values of North America. However, sensitivity values of some taxa were significantly different from those of foreign countries, which seemed to have resulted from discrepancy in species composition, difference of taxonomic classification system, or methodological difference for estimation of sensitivity. As an annual average level, BMFI showed significant correlation with concentration of 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) (correlation coefficient r = -0.80, n = 569 sites), total suspended solids (r = -0.68), and total phosphorus (r = -0.79). In addition, BMFI revealed strong correlation with Shannon-Weaver's species diversity (r = 0.85), Margalef's species richness (r = 0.85) and McNaughton's dominance (r = -0.84). Correlation between BMFI and water quality parameters or community indices such as species diversity did not show significant difference compared to that of species-level indices such as BMI (Benthic Macroinvertebrates Index). This means that BMFI is a more useful indicator in terms of easy identification of organisms. BMFI was used to assess the environmental status of 3,017 sites of Stream Ecosystem Survey conducted by the Korean Ministry of Environment between 2016 and 2018. As a result, about half of all sites appeared to be in good condition, and a quarter in poor condition.

Analysis of the Seoul public bikes usage for new rental locations (서울 공공자전거 신규 대여소를 위한 수요량 예측 분석)

  • Kim, Yesool;Park, Sion;Park, Gunwoong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.739-751
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    • 2020
  • Seoul public bike program facilitates access to bicycles and offers potential for greater mobility and health for users. Furthermore, it would have positive impacts on transport congestion, energy use, and the environment. Hence, it is important to find future rental locations by taking to account both bike-demand and regional imbalance. This paper first finds eligible candidates of rental locations with the required spatial conditions such as a sufficient sidewalk width and accessibility of bike pick-up vehicles. And then, estimates public bike daily usage for each selected location via random forest based on Seoul public bike historical usage, Seoul geographical features, regional characteristics, and populations. This study contributes to a better comprehension of the Seoul public bike program, and would be useful in determining new public bike rental locations.

A Trip Mobility Analysis using Big Data (빅데이터 기반의 모빌리티 분석)

  • Cho, Bumchul;Kim, Juyoung;Kim, Dong-ho
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.85-95
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    • 2020
  • In this study, a mobility analysis method is suggested to estimate an O/D trip demand estimation using Mobile Phone Signaling Data. Using mobile data based on mobile base station location information, a trip chain database was established for each person and daily traffic patterns were analyzed. In addition, a new algorithm was developed to determine the traffic characteristics of their mobilities. To correct the ping pong handover problem of communication data itself, the methodology was developed and the criteria for stay time was set to distinguish pass by between stay within the influence area. The big-data based method is applied to analyze the mobility pattern in inter-regional trip and intra-regional trip in both of an urban area and a rural city. When comparing it with the results with traditional methods, it seems that the new methodology has a possibility to be applied to the national survey projects in the future.