• Title/Summary/Keyword: data-driven decision making

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Degradation-Based Remaining Useful Life Analysis for Predictive Maintenance in a Steel Galvanizing Kettle (철강 도금로의 예지보전을 위한 열화 기반 잔존수명 분석)

  • Shin, Joon Ho;Kim, Chang Ouk
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.10 no.12
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    • pp.271-280
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    • 2019
  • Smart factory, a critical part of digital transformation, enables data-driven decision making using monitoring, analysis and prediction. Predictive maintenance is a key element of smart factory and the need is increasing. The purpose of this study is to analyze the degradation characteristics of a galvanizing kettle for the steel plating process and to predict the remaining useful life(RUL) for predictive maintenance. Correlation analysis, multiple regression, principal component regression were used for analyzing factors of the process. To identify the trend of degradation, a proposed rolling window was used. It was observed the degradation trend was dependent on environmental temperature as well as production factors. It is expected that the proposed method in this study will be an example to identify the trend of degradation of the facility and enable more consistent predictive maintenance.

BGRcast: A Disease Forecast Model to Support Decision-making for Chemical Sprays to Control Bacterial Grain Rot of Rice

  • Lee, Yong Hwan;Ko, Sug-Ju;Cha, Kwang-Hong;Park, Eun Woo
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.350-362
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    • 2015
  • A disease forecast model for bacterial grain rot (BGR) of rice, which is caused by Burkholderia glumae, was developed in this study. The model, which was named 'BGRcast', determined daily conduciveness of weather conditions to epidemic development of BGR and forecasted risk of BGR development. All data that were used to develop and validate the BGRcast model were collected from field observations on disease incidence at Naju, Korea during 1998-2004 and 2010. In this study, we have proposed the environmental conduciveness as a measure of conduciveness of weather conditions for population growth of B. glumae and panicle infection in the field. The BGRcast calculated daily environmental conduciveness, $C_i$, based on daily minimum temperature and daily average relative humidity. With regard to the developmental stages of rice plants, the epidemic development of BGR was divided into three phases, i.e., lag, inoculum build-up and infection phases. Daily average of $C_i$ was calculated for the inoculum build-up phase ($C_{inf}$) and the infection phase ($C_{inc}$). The $C_{inc}$ and $C_{inf}$ were considered environmental conduciveness for the periods of inoculum build-up in association with rice plants and panicle infection during the heading stage, respectively. The BGRcast model was able to forecast actual occurrence of BGR at the probability of 71.4% and its false alarm ratio was 47.6%. With the thresholds of $C_{inc}=0.3$ and $C_{inf}=0.5$, the model was able to provide advisories that could be used to make decisions on whether to spray bactericide at the preand post-heading stage.

A Review of Urban Flooding: Causes, Impacts, and Mitigation Strategies (도시 홍수: 원인, 영향 및 저감 전략 고찰)

  • Jin-Yong Lee
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.489-502
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    • 2023
  • Urban floods pose significant challenges to cities worldwide, driven by the interplay between urbanization and climate change. This review examines recent studies of urban floods to understand their causes, impacts, and potential mitigation strategies. Urbanization, with its increase in impermeable surfaces and altered drainage patterns, disrupts natural water flow, exacerbating surface runoff during intense rainfall events. The impacts of urban floods are far-reaching, affecting lives, infrastructure, the economy, and the environment. Loss of life, property damage, disruptions to critical services, and environmental consequences underscore the urgency of effective urban flood management. To mitigate urban floods, integrated flood management strategies are crucial. Sustainable urban planning, green infrastructure, and improved drainage systems play pivotal roles in reducing flood vulnerabilities. Early warning systems, emergency response planning, and community engagement are essential components of flood preparedness and resilience. Looking to the future, climate change projections indicate increased flood risks, necessitating resilience and adaptation measures. Advances in research, data collection, and modeling techniques will enable more accurate flood predictions, thus guiding decision-making. In conclusion, urban flooding demands urgent attention and comprehensive strategies to protect lives, infrastructure, and the economy.

An Exploratory Study of EVMS Environment Factors and their Impact on Cost Performance for Construction and Environmental Projects

  • Aramali, Vartenie;Sanboskani, Hala;G. Edward Jr., Gibson;Asmar, Mounir El
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.170-178
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    • 2022
  • A high-performing Earned Value Management System (EVMS) can influence project success and help stakeholders meet project objectives. Although EVMS processes are well-supported by technical guidelines and standards, project managers often face challenges related to the project culture, team, resources, and business practices that make up the project environment within which an EVMS is being used. A comprehensive literature review revealed a lack of a data-driven and consistent assessment frameworks that can gauge the environment surrounding EVMS implementation. This paper will discuss the EVMS environment of construction and environmental projects, and examine its impact on cost performance. The authors used a multi-method approach to identify 27 environment factors that make up the EVMS environment, assessing them on 18 construction and environmental projects worth over $2 billion of total cost. Research methods employed include: (1) a literature review of more than 300 references; (2) a survey of 294 respondents; and (3) remote research charrettes with more than 60 participating expert practitioners. Culture (one of the identified environment categories) was found to be relatively more important in terms of its impact on the EVMS environment, followed by people, practices, and resources. These exploratory results show statistically significant differences in cost performance between completed projects with either a good or poor environment, for the sample projects. Key environment factors are outlined, and guidance is provided to practitioners around how to set up an effective EVMS environment in a construction or environmental project to inform decision-making and support achieving the project cost objectives successfully.

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Uncertainty Sequence Modeling Approach for Safe and Effective Autonomous Driving (안전하고 효과적인 자율주행을 위한 불확실성 순차 모델링)

  • Yoon, Jae Ung;Lee, Ju Hong
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.11 no.9
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    • pp.9-20
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    • 2022
  • Deep reinforcement learning(RL) is an end-to-end data-driven control method that is widely used in the autonomous driving domain. However, conventional RL approaches have difficulties in applying it to autonomous driving tasks due to problems such as inefficiency, instability, and uncertainty. These issues play an important role in the autonomous driving domain. Although recent studies have attempted to solve these problems, they are computationally expensive and rely on special assumptions. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm MCDT that considers inefficiency, instability, and uncertainty by introducing a method called uncertainty sequence modeling to autonomous driving domain. The sequence modeling method, which views reinforcement learning as a decision making generation problem to obtain high rewards, avoids the disadvantages of exiting studies and guarantees efficiency, stability and also considers safety by integrating uncertainty estimation techniques. The proposed method was tested in the OpenAI Gym CarRacing environment, and the experimental results show that the MCDT algorithm provides efficient, stable and safe performance compared to the existing reinforcement learning method.

A Study on Environmental Impact Assessment System of Seoul City (서울시 환경영향평가 제도에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Im-Soon;Han, Sang-Wook
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.467-483
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    • 2007
  • Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is a kind of planning technique to seek ways to minimize environmental impact, a scheme to encourage sustainable development. With the launch of the Ministry of Environment in 1980, the EIA was introduced in Korea. Its full operation was initially driven by regulations on documenting EIA reports in 1981, which was piloted as a decision-making scheme where final decision were made at the development department after considering opinions suggested by the Ministry of Environment. At that time, dominance of the economic logic overwhelmed environ-friendly opinions, but thanks to the fourth revision of the Environmental Conservation Law in 1986, private projects came to be included on the EIA list. This was a turning point for the EIA to become a regulatory system. Local governments are also conducting the EIA regardless of the national-level EIA. In order to prevent and resolve increasingly severe environmental problems in Seoul in advance due to various construction projects, the Seoul Metropolitan Government, for the first time as a local government in Korea, legislated city decrees to introduce the EIA which has been underway from September 1, 2002. In particular, the Seoul government, unlike the Ministry of Environment, has included construction works on the list of evaluation projects, adopting the scoping and screen procedure scheme. In addition, complementing operational setbacks, the city government has revised and implemented decrees and enforcement laws on the Impact Assessment on Environment, Transportation and Disasters by shortening the consultation period, eliminating the submission of reports on construction, and expanding the waiver requirements in consultation over the reports. Therefore, development measures for the EIA scheme of the Seoul Metropolitan Government will be the target of the research. To that end, the up-to-date data of the Ministry of Environment, the Seoul government and local governments was collected, and latest materials from the EU, previous research and the Internet were gathered for analyses. By doing so, the flow of the EIA was reviewed, and the EIA schemes of local governments under the national EIA were analyzed. Furthermore, based on the Seoul government's recent data on the EIA based on the decrees, the background and legislation of the Seoul government's EIA were analyzed along with the developments for the environmental organizations. Setbacks were derived from the implementation period, evaluation procedures, consultation period and details of the EIA, and corresponding development measures were proposed.

Comparative analysis of wavelet transform and machine learning approaches for noise reduction in water level data (웨이블릿 변환과 기계 학습 접근법을 이용한 수위 데이터의 노이즈 제거 비교 분석)

  • Hwang, Yukwan;Lim, Kyoung Jae;Kim, Jonggun;Shin, Minhwan;Park, Youn Shik;Shin, Yongchul;Ji, Bongjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.209-223
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    • 2024
  • In the context of the fourth industrial revolution, data-driven decision-making has increasingly become pivotal. However, the integrity of data analysis is compromised if data quality is not adequately ensured, potentially leading to biased interpretations. This is particularly critical for water level data, essential for water resource management, which often encounters quality issues such as missing values, spikes, and noise. This study addresses the challenge of noise-induced data quality deterioration, which complicates trend analysis and may produce anomalous outliers. To mitigate this issue, we propose a noise removal strategy employing Wavelet Transform, a technique renowned for its efficacy in signal processing and noise elimination. The advantage of Wavelet Transform lies in its operational efficiency - it reduces both time and costs as it obviates the need for acquiring the true values of collected data. This study conducted a comparative performance evaluation between our Wavelet Transform-based approach and the Denoising Autoencoder, a prominent machine learning method for noise reduction.. The findings demonstrate that the Coiflets wavelet function outperforms the Denoising Autoencoder across various metrics, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Mean Squared Error (MSE). The superiority of the Coiflets function suggests that selecting an appropriate wavelet function tailored to the specific application environment can effectively address data quality issues caused by noise. This study underscores the potential of Wavelet Transform as a robust tool for enhancing the quality of water level data, thereby contributing to the reliability of water resource management decisions.

Causal inference from nonrandomized data: key concepts and recent trends (비실험 자료로부터의 인과 추론: 핵심 개념과 최근 동향)

  • Choi, Young-Geun;Yu, Donghyeon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.173-185
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    • 2019
  • Causal questions are prevalent in scientific research, for example, how effective a treatment was for preventing an infectious disease, how much a policy increased utility, or which advertisement would give the highest click rate for a given customer. Causal inference theory in statistics interprets those questions as inferring the effect of a given intervention (treatment or policy) in the data generating process. Causal inference has been used in medicine, public health, and economics; in addition, it has received recent attention as a tool for data-driven decision making processes. Many recent datasets are observational, rather than experimental, which makes the causal inference theory more complex. This review introduces key concepts and recent trends of statistical causal inference in observational studies. We first introduce the Neyman-Rubin's potential outcome framework to formularize from causal questions to average treatment effects as well as discuss popular methods to estimate treatment effects such as propensity score approaches and regression approaches. For recent trends, we briefly discuss (1) conditional (heterogeneous) treatment effects and machine learning-based approaches, (2) curse of dimensionality on the estimation of treatment effect and its remedies, and (3) Pearl's structural causal model to deal with more complex causal relationships and its connection to the Neyman-Rubin's potential outcome model.

Analysis on Statistical Problem Solving Process of Pre-service Mathematics Teachers: Focus on the Result Interpretation Stage (예비 수학교사들의 통계적 문제해결 과정 분석: 결과 해석 단계를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sohyung;Han, Sunyoung
    • Communications of Mathematical Education
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.535-558
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    • 2022
  • In the current society, where statistical literacy is recognized as an important ability, statistical education utilizing the statistical problem solving, a series of processes for performing statistics, is required. The result interpretation stage is especially important because many forms of statistics we encounter in our daily lives are the information from the analysis results. In this study, data on private education were provided to pre-service mathematics teachers, and a project was carried out in which they could experience a statistical problem solving process using the population mean estimation. Therefore, this study analyzed the characteristics shown by pre-service mathematics teachers during the result interpretation stage. First, many pre-service mathematics teachers interpreted results based on the data, but the inference was found to be a level of 2 which is not reasonable. Second, pre-service mathematics teachers in this study made various kinds of decisions related to public education, such as improving classes and after-school classes. In addition, the pre-service mathematics teachers in this study seem to have made decisions based on statistical analysis results, but they made general decisions that teachers could make, rather than specifically. Third, the pre-service mathematics teachers of this study were reflective about the question formulation stage, organizing & reducing data stage, and the result interpretation stage, but no one was reflective about the result interpretation stage.

Evaluating the Multi-Period Management Efficiency of Domestic Online-Shopping Companies (DEA와 Malmquist 생산성지수를 이용한 우리나라 온라인쇼핑업체의 다기간 경영 효율성 분석)

  • Ma, Jin-Hee;Ja, Yoon-Ho;Ahn, Young-Hyo
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - Online shopping enables consumers to conveniently purchase products irrespective of the time and place. As a result, several online shopping companies have emerged to cater to this growing market and, therefore, the competition among them has become increasingly intense. This paper evaluates the comparative efficiency of online shopping companies for a multi-year period (2009-2013), in order to help online shopping managers identify major drivers for enhancing management efficiency and the subsequent competitiveness. Research design, data, and methodology - The researchers collected the data from 2009 to 2013 from the distribution yearbook. This paper analyzes the marketability (sales figures), profitability (business profits), and management conditions (net profits) of domestic online shopping enterprises by incorporating information on human resources (number of employees) and material resources (total assets and capital). Therefore, the number of employees, total assets, and capital are selected as input variables, and sales figures, business profits, and net profits as the output variables. In this study, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was used to measure the comparative efficiency of domestic online shopping companies. In addition, the Malmquist Productivity Index was used to evaluate the trend of change of Decision Making Units' (DMUs') efficiency for a multi-year period. Results - First, as of 2013, Interpark (2.415) was found to be the most efficient online shopping enterprise, followed by Aladdin Communications (2.117), Hyundai Home shopping (1.867), Home&Shopping (1.176), NS Home shopping (1.170), Commerce Planet (1.126), CJ O Shopping (1.105), Ebay Korea (1.088), and GS Home Shopping (1.051). Second, this study recognizes how the management efficiency has changed for the period 2009-2013. Third, the lesser the capital and employees, the more are the net profits, and the better is the management efficiency of domestic online shopping companies. Lastly, the productivity of such companies is influenced by endogenous factors rather than exogenous factors such as shifts in business environment and technological advances. Conclusions - DHC Korea influenced various distribution channels to reach customers through the Internet. Consequently, this helped in increasing the awareness about its products, in addition to an increase in sales. These achievements can be attributed to the characteristics of online shopping companies. Although it is easy for these companies to suggest goods for one-off purchases, they however have difficulties in retaining customers. Overcoming this challenge can be one of the ways to benchmark a successful case of an efficient company. For example, an online shopping company can attract customers by developing a corresponding mobile application as a convenient way to shop online. Additionally, they can satisfy customers by quick delivery of purchased products, which is possible by building an effective logistics network. Our study indicates that the productivity of an online shopping company was influenced by endogenous factors driven by improvements in managerial practices rather than exogenous factors. Accordingly, online shopping companies should adopt strategies to improve their operational efficiency rather than sales volume-oriented management.