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A study on the prediction of korean NPL market return (한국 NPL시장 수익률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyeon Su;Jeong, Seung Hwan;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.123-139
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    • 2019
  • The Korean NPL market was formed by the government and foreign capital shortly after the 1997 IMF crisis. However, this market is short-lived, as the bad debt has started to increase after the global financial crisis in 2009 due to the real economic recession. NPL has become a major investment in the market in recent years when the domestic capital market's investment capital began to enter the NPL market in earnest. Although the domestic NPL market has received considerable attention due to the overheating of the NPL market in recent years, research on the NPL market has been abrupt since the history of capital market investment in the domestic NPL market is short. In addition, decision-making through more scientific and systematic analysis is required due to the decline in profitability and the price fluctuation due to the fluctuation of the real estate business. In this study, we propose a prediction model that can determine the achievement of the benchmark yield by using the NPL market related data in accordance with the market demand. In order to build the model, we used Korean NPL data from December 2013 to December 2017 for about 4 years. The total number of things data was 2291. As independent variables, only the variables related to the dependent variable were selected for the 11 variables that indicate the characteristics of the real estate. In order to select the variables, one to one t-test and logistic regression stepwise and decision tree were performed. Seven independent variables (purchase year, SPC (Special Purpose Company), municipality, appraisal value, purchase cost, OPB (Outstanding Principle Balance), HP (Holding Period)). The dependent variable is a bivariate variable that indicates whether the benchmark rate is reached. This is because the accuracy of the model predicting the binomial variables is higher than the model predicting the continuous variables, and the accuracy of these models is directly related to the effectiveness of the model. In addition, in the case of a special purpose company, whether or not to purchase the property is the main concern. Therefore, whether or not to achieve a certain level of return is enough to make a decision. For the dependent variable, we constructed and compared the predictive model by calculating the dependent variable by adjusting the numerical value to ascertain whether 12%, which is the standard rate of return used in the industry, is a meaningful reference value. As a result, it was found that the hit ratio average of the predictive model constructed using the dependent variable calculated by the 12% standard rate of return was the best at 64.60%. In order to propose an optimal prediction model based on the determined dependent variables and 7 independent variables, we construct a prediction model by applying the five methodologies of discriminant analysis, logistic regression analysis, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model we tried to compare them. To do this, 10 sets of training data and testing data were extracted using 10 fold validation method. After building the model using this data, the hit ratio of each set was averaged and the performance was compared. As a result, the hit ratio average of prediction models constructed by using discriminant analysis, logistic regression model, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model were 64.40%, 65.12%, 63.54%, 67.40%, and 60.51%, respectively. It was confirmed that the model using the artificial neural network is the best. Through this study, it is proved that it is effective to utilize 7 independent variables and artificial neural network prediction model in the future NPL market. The proposed model predicts that the 12% return of new things will be achieved beforehand, which will help the special purpose companies make investment decisions. Furthermore, we anticipate that the NPL market will be liquidated as the transaction proceeds at an appropriate price.

Determinants of Consumer Preference by type of Accommodation: Two Step Cluster Analysis (이단계 군집분석에 의한 농촌관광 편의시설 유형별 소비자 선호 결정요인)

  • Park, Duk-Byeong;Yoon, Yoo-Shik;Lee, Min-Soo
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2007
  • 1. Purpose Rural tourism is made by individuals with different characteristics, needs and wants. It is important to have information on the characteristics and preferences of the consumers of the different types of existing rural accommodation. The stud aims to identify the determinants of consumer preference by type of accommodations. 2. Methodology 2.1 Sample Data were collected from 1000 people by telephone survey with three-stage stratified random sampling in seven metropolitan areas in Korea. Respondents were chosen by sampling internal on telephone book published in 2006. We surveyed from four to ten-thirty 0'clock afternoon so as to systematic sampling considering respondents' life cycle. 2.2 Two-step cluster Analysis Our study is accomplished through the use of a two-step cluster method to classify the accommodation in a reduced number of groups, so that each group constitutes a type. This method had been suggested as appropriate in clustering large data sets with mixed attributes. The method is based on a distance measure that enables data with both continuous and categorical attributes to be clustered. This is derived from a probabilistic model in which the distance between two clusters in equivalent to the decrease in log-likelihood function as a result of merging. 2.3 Multinomial Logit Analysis The estimation of a Multionmial Logit model determines the characteristics of tourist who is most likely to opt for each type of accommodation. The Multinomial Logit model constitutes an appropriate framework to explore and explain choice process where the choice set consists of more than two alternatives. Due to its ease and quick estimation of parameters, the Multinomial Logit model has been used for many empirical studies of choice in tourism. 3. Findings The auto-clustering algorithm indicated that a five-cluster solution was the best model, because it minimized the BIC value and the change in them between adjacent numbers of clusters. The accommodation establishments can be classified into five types: Traditional House, Typical Farmhouse, Farmstay house for group Tour, Log Cabin for Family, and Log Cabin for Individuals. Group 1 (Traditional House) includes mainly the large accommodation establishments, i.e. those with ondoll style room providing meals and one shower room on family tourist, of original construction style house. Group 2 (Typical Farmhouse) encompasses accommodation establishments of Ondoll rooms and each bathroom providing meals. It includes, in other words, the tourist accommodations Known as "rural houses." Group 3 (Farmstay House for Group) has accommodation establishments of Ondoll rooms not providing meals and self cooking facilities, large room size over five persons. Group 4 (Log Cabin for Family) includes mainly the popular accommodation establishments, i.e. those with Ondoll style room with on shower room on family tourist, of western styled log house. While the accommodations in this group are not defined as regards type of construction, the group does include all the original Korean style construction, Finally, group 5 (Log Cabin for Individuals)includes those accommodations that are bedroom western styled wooden house with each bathroom. First Multinomial Logit model is estimated including all the explicative variables considered and taking accommodation group 2 as base alternative. The results show that the variables and the estimated values of the parameters for the model giving the probability of each of the five different types of accommodation available in rural tourism village in Korea, according to the socio-economic and trip related characteristics of the individuals. An initial observation of the analysis reveals that none of variables income, the number of journey, distance, and residential style of house is explicative in the choice of rural accommodation. The age and accompany variables are significant for accommodation establishment of group 1. The education and rural residential experience variables are significant for accommodation establishment of groups 4 and 5. The expenditure and marital status variables are significant for accommodation establishment of group 4. The gender and occupation variable are significant for accommodation establishment of group 3. The loyalty variable is significant for accommodation establishment of groups 3 and 4. The study indicates that significant differences exist among the individuals who choose each type of accommodation at a destination. From this investigation is evident that several profiles of tourists can be attracted by a rural destination according to the types of existing accommodations at this destination. Besides, the tourist profiles may be used as the basis for investment policy and promotion for each type of accommodation, making use in each case of the variables that indicate a greater likelihood of influencing the tourist choice of accommodation.

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The aplication of fuzzy classification methods to spatial analysis (공간분석을 위한 퍼지분류의 이론적 배경과 적용에 관한 연구 - 경상남도 邑級以上 도시의 기능분류를 중심으로 -)

  • ;Jung, In-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.296-310
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    • 1995
  • Classification of spatial units into meaningful sets is an important procedure in spatial analysis. It is crucial in characterizing and identifying spatial structures. But traditional classification methods such as cluster analysis require an exact database and impose a clear-cut boundary between classes. Scrutiny of realistic classification problems, however, reveals that available infermation may be vague and that the boundary may be ambiguous. The weakness of conventional methods is that they fail to capture the fuzzy data and the transition between classes. Fuzzy subsets theory is useful for solving these problems. This paper aims to come to the understanding of theoretical foundations of fuzzy spatial analysis, and to find the characteristics of fuzzy classification methods. It attempts to do so through the literature review and the case study of urban classification of the Cities and Eups of Kyung-Nam Province. The main findings are summarized as follows: 1. Following Dubois and Prade, fuzzy information has an imprecise and/or uncertain evaluation. In geography, fuzzy informations about spatial organization, geographical space perception and human behavior are frequent. But the researcher limits his work to numerical data processing and he does not consider spatial fringe. Fuzzy spatial analysis makes it possible to include the interface of groups in classification. 2. Fuzzy numerical taxonomic method is settled by Deloche, Tranquis, Ponsard and Leung. Depending on the data and the method employed, groups derived may be mutually exclusive or they may overlap to a certain degree. Classification pattern can be derived for each degree of similarity/distance $\alpha$. By takina the values of $\alpha$ in ascending or descending order, the hierarchical classification is obtained. 3. Kyung-Nam Cities and Eups were classified by fuzzy discrete classification, fuzzy conjoint classification and cluster analysis according to the ratio of number of persons employed in industries. As a result, they were divided into several groups which had homogeneous characteristies. Fuzzy discrete classification and cluste-analysis give clear-cut boundary, but fuzzy conjoint classification delimit the edges and cores of urban classification. 4. The results of different methods are varied. But each method contributes to the revealing the transparence of spatial structure. Through the result of three kinds of classification, Chung-mu city which has special characteristics and the group of Industrial cities composed by Changwon, Ulsan, Masan, Chinhai, Kimhai, Yangsan, Ungsang, Changsungpo and Shinhyun are evident in common. Even though the appraisal of the fuzzy classification methods, this framework appears to be more realistic and flexible in preserving information pertinent to urban classification.

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A Study on the Research Trends in Library & Information Science in Korea using Topic Modeling (토픽모델링을 활용한 국내 문헌정보학 연구동향 분석)

  • Park, Ja-Hyun;Song, Min
    • Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.7-32
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    • 2013
  • The goal of the present study is to identify the topic trend in the field of library and information science in Korea. To this end, we collected titles and s of the papers published in four major journals such as Journal of the Korean Society for information Management, Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science, Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society, and Journal of the Korean BIBLIA Society for library and Information Science during 1970 and 2012. After that, we applied the well-received topic modeling technique, Latent Dirichlet Allocation(LDA), to the collected data sets. The research findings of the study are as follows: 1) Comparison of the extracted topics by LDA with the subject headings of library and information science shows that there are several distinct sub-research domains strongly tied with the field. Those include library and society in the domain of "introduction to library and information science," professionalism, library and information policy in the domain of "library system," library evaluation in the domain of "library management," collection development and management, information service in the domain of "library service," services by library type, user training/information literacy, service evaluation, classification/cataloging/meta-data in the domain of "document organization," bibliometrics/digital libraries/user study/internet/expert system/information retrieval/information system in the domain of "information science," antique documents in the domain of "bibliography," books/publications in the domain of "publication," and archival study. The results indicate that among these sub-domains, information science and library services are two most focused domains. Second, we observe that there is the growing trend in the research topics such as service and evaluation by library type, internet, and meta-data, but the research topics such as book, classification, and cataloging reveal the declining trend. Third, analysis by journal show that in Journal of the Korean Society for information Management, information science related topics appear more frequently than library science related topics whereas library science related topics are more popular in the other three journals studied in this paper.

An Exploratory Study on Determinants Affecting R Programming Acceptance (R 프로그래밍 수용 결정 요인에 대한 탐색 연구)

  • Rubianogroot, Jennifer;Namn, Su Hyeon
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.139-154
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    • 2018
  • R programming is free and open source system associated with a rich and ever-growing set of libraries of functions developed and submitted by independent end-users. It is recognized as a popular tool for handling big data sets and analyzing them. Reflecting these characteristics, R has been gaining popularity from data analysts. However, the antecedents of R technology acceptance has not been studied yet. In this study we identify and investigates cognitive factors contributing to build user acceptance toward R in education environment. We extend the existing technology acceptance model by incorporating social norms and software capability. It was found that the factors of subjective norm, perceived usefulness, ease of use affect positively on the intention of acceptance R programming. In addition, perceived usefulness is related to subjective norms, perceived ease of use, and software capability. The main difference of this research from the previous ones is that the target system is not a stand-alone. In addition, the system is not static in the sense that the system is not a final version. Instead, R system is evolving and open source system. We applied the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to the target system which is a platform where diverse applications such as statistical, big data analyses, and visual rendering can be performed. The model presented in this work can be useful for both colleges that plan to invest in new statistical software and for companies that need to pursue future installations of new technologies. In addition, we identified a modified version of the TAM model which is extended by the constructs such as subjective norm and software capability to the original TAM model. However one of the weak aspects that might inhibit the reliability and validity of the model is that small number of sample size.

A Study of Unregistered Manufacturing Plants: Their Problems and Alternative Policies (首都圈 無登錄工場 問題와 對策에 관한 硏究)

  • Hwang, Man-Ik
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.489-507
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    • 1996
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the increasing number of unregistered manufacturing plants and related problems, and to recommend alternative solutions to the problems. Data are obtained from a field survey of randomly selected small scale manufacturing plants in Seoul and its suburban cities. A total number or respondents are 533, and 416 of them are unregistered plants. The Capital Regional Planning has had a goal during last three decades to lead a balanced regional economic development by restriction manufacturing plants in the Capital Region and by encouraging them in other regions in the nation. It was 1984 when a comprehensive planning was established to achieve this goal. Sets of various regulations, by-laws and codes have been implemented to regulate manu-facturing activities in the Capital Region to achieve the goal. The region is divided into three sub-regions, and a different degree of regulations is applied to each sub-region. Only a certain types of industries are allowed in a particular sub-region. For instance, a plant manufacturing high-technology products could be allowed in the most urbanized sub-region. All manu-facturing plant in the Capital Region which has ares size of larger than 200"\;"$m^2$ is compulsory to register to the local government office. In practice, however, it is not common or sometimes almost impossible to get approval for many applicant manufacturers because of strict regulations. There have been increasing number of plants in the Capital Region during last several decades, despite the strict regulations. Many of those newly established plants are without formal registration at the local administration office. howerver. These are so called 'unregisterd' plants. Surveyed data and many government official data show that many of unregistered plants have been established in recent years. which indicate that current regulations are no longer effective. The number of unregistered plants are increasing tin the Capital Region because of many locational advantages in the region for plants, particularly those in small scale. Unregistered plants are the source of many problems, such as local water pollution or noise pollution in residential areas. There are also many administration problems, bed\cause they are not registered. The central government has attempted to cure the problems of unregistered plants. For example, the government allowed a unregistered plant to remain at present site for three ydars, if it met certain conditions in three years. However, this program was unsuccessful because many of those plants were not able to meet the concitions. Three times the government renewed the term for those which did not meet conditions since 1989, but it was afraid to be without success. There are many evidences that current policies to control manufacturing plants are not effective. The Capital Region must face mounting problems if ploicies are not reformed soon. This study suggests that the policy of the Capital Regional Planning has to be reoriented to provide more favorable policies for manufacturing plants in the Capital Region than current regulations which is aimed to restrict manufacturing activities. It is time to improve many existing problems in the region through reforms and of current regulations to foster unregistered plants. This study also proposes many smaller-area sub-divisions instead of current three large area sub-regions which is too broad to apply single kind of regulation, or codes. Flexible regulations and codes can be applied to such a small-area sub-divivisions based on location and industrial characteristics of the individual sub-divisions. It is necessary to provide decent industrial environment in the Capital Region, which is best equipped to provide many favorable industrial locational factors in the nation, thus this nation can be further prepared to compete in an inter-national market at an era of globalization in manufacturing.

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Estimation of forest Site Productivity by Regional Environment and Forest Soil Factors (권역별 입지$\cdot$토양 환경 요인에 의한 임지생산력 추정)

  • Won Hyong-kyu;Jeong Jin-Hyun;Koo Kyo-Sang;Song Myung Hee;Shin Man Yong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.132-140
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    • 2005
  • This study was conducted to develop regional site index equations for main tree species in Gangwon, Gyunggi-Chungcheong, Gyungsang, and Jeolla area of Korea, using environmental and soil factors obtained from a digital forest site map. Using the large data set obtained from the digital forest map, a total of 28 environmental and soil factors were regressed on site index by tree species for developing the best site index equations for each of the regions. The selected main tree species were Larix 1eptolepis, Pinus koraiensis, Pinus densiflora, Pinus thunbergii, and Quercus acutissima. Finally, four to five environmental and soil factors by species were chosen as independent variables in defining the best regional site index equations with the highest coefficients of determination $(R^2)$. For those site index equations, three evaluation statistics such as mean difference, standard deviation of difference and standard error of difference were applied to the data sets independently collected from fields within the region. According to the evaluation statistics, it was found that the regional site index equations by species developed in this study conformed well to the independent data set, having relatively low bias and variation. It was concluded that the regional site index equations by species had sufficient capability for the estimation of site productivity.

COATED PARTICLE FUEL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE GAS COOLED REACTORS

  • Verfondern, Karl;Nabielek, Heinz;Kendall, James M.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.603-616
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    • 2007
  • Roy Huddle, having invented the coated particle in Harwell 1957, stated in the early 1970s that we know now everything about particles and coatings and should be going over to deal with other problems. This was on the occasion of the Dragon fuel performance information meeting London 1973: How wrong a genius be! It took until 1978 that really good particles were made in Germany, then during the Japanese HTTR production in the 1990s and finally the Chinese 2000-2001 campaign for HTR-10. Here, we present a review of history and present status. Today, good fuel is measured by different standards from the seventies: where $9*10^{-4}$ initial free heavy metal fraction was typical for early AVR carbide fuel and $3*10^{-4}$ initial free heavy metal fraction was acceptable for oxide fuel in THTR, we insist on values more than an order of magnitude below this value today. Half a percent of particle failure at the end-of-irradiation, another ancient standard, is not even acceptable today, even for the most severe accidents. While legislation and licensing has not changed, one of the reasons we insist on these improvements is the preference for passive systems rather than active controls of earlier times. After renewed HTGR interest, we are reporting about the start of new or reactivated coated particle work in several parts of the world, considering the aspects of designs/ traditional and new materials, manufacturing technologies/ quality control quality assurance, irradiation and accident performance, modeling and performance predictions, and fuel cycle aspects and spent fuel treatment. In very general terms, the coated particle should be strong, reliable, retentive, and affordable. These properties have to be quantified and will be eventually optimized for a specific application system. Results obtained so far indicate that the same particle can be used for steam cycle applications with $700-750^{\circ}C$ helium coolant gas exit, for gas turbine applications at $850-900^{\circ}C$ and for process heat/hydrogen generation applications with $950^{\circ}C$ outlet temperatures. There is a clear set of standards for modem high quality fuel in terms of low levels of heavy metal contamination, manufacture-induced particle defects during fuel body and fuel element making, irradiation/accident induced particle failures and limits on fission product release from intact particles. While gas-cooled reactor design is still open-ended with blocks for the prismatic and spherical fuel elements for the pebble-bed design, there is near worldwide agreement on high quality fuel: a $500{\mu}m$ diameter $UO_2$ kernel of 10% enrichment is surrounded by a $100{\mu}m$ thick sacrificial buffer layer to be followed by a dense inner pyrocarbon layer, a high quality silicon carbide layer of $35{\mu}m$ thickness and theoretical density and another outer pyrocarbon layer. Good performance has been demonstrated both under operational and under accident conditions, i.e. to 10% FIMA and maximum $1600^{\circ}C$ afterwards. And it is the wide-ranging demonstration experience that makes this particle superior. Recommendations are made for further work: 1. Generation of data for presently manufactured materials, e.g. SiC strength and strength distribution, PyC creep and shrinkage and many more material data sets. 2. Renewed start of irradiation and accident testing of modem coated particle fuel. 3. Analysis of existing and newly created data with a view to demonstrate satisfactory performance at burnups beyond 10% FIMA and complete fission product retention even in accidents that go beyond $1600^{\circ}C$ for a short period of time. This work should proceed at both national and international level.

Freeze Risk Assessment for Three Major Peach Growing Areas under the Future Climate Projected by RCP8.5 Emission Scenario (신 기후변화시나리오 RCP 8.5에 근거한 복숭아 주산지 세 곳의 동해위험도 평가)

  • Kim, Soo-Ock;Kim, Dae-Jun;Kim, Jin-Hee;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.124-131
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    • 2012
  • This study was carried out to evaluate a possible change in freeze risk for 'Changhowon Hwangdo' peach buds in three major peach growing areas under the future climate projected by RCP8.5 emission scenario. Mean values of the monthly temperature data for the present decade (2000s) and the future decades (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) were extracted for farm lands in Icheon, Chungju, and Yeongcheon-Gyeongsan region at 1km resolution and 30 sets of daily temperature data were generated randomly by a stochastic process for each decade. The daily data were used to calculate a thermal time-based dormancy depth index which is closely related to the cold tolerance of peach buds. Combined with daily minimum temperature, dormancy depth can be used to estimate the potential risk of freezing damage on peach buds. When the freeze risk was calculated daily for the winter period (from 1 November to 15 March) in the present decade, Icheon and Chungju regions had high values across the whole period, but Yeongcheon-Gyeongsan regions had low values from mid-December to the end of January. In the future decades, the frequency of freezing damage would be reduced in all 3 regions and the reduction rate could be as high as 75 to 90% by 2080's. However, the severe class risk (over 80% damage) will not disappear in the future and most occurrences will be limited to December to early January according to the calculation. This phenomenon might be explained by shortened cold hardiness period caused by winter warming as well as sudden cold waves resulting from the higher inter-annual climate variability projected by the RCP8.5 scenario.

Estimate on the Crustal Thickness from Using Multi-geophysical Data Sets and Its Comparison to Heat Flow Distribution of Korean Peninsula (다양한 지구물리 자료를 통해 얻은 한반도의 지각두께 예측과 지열류량과의 비교)

  • Choi, Soon-Young;Kim, Hyung-Rae;Kim, Chang-Hwan;Park, Chan-Hong;Suh, Man-Chul
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.493-502
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    • 2011
  • We study the deep structure of Korean Peninsula by estimating Moho depth and crustal thickness from using land and oceanic topography and free-air gravity anomaly data. Based on Airy-Heiskanen isostatic hypothesis, the correlated components between the terrain gravity effects and free-air gravity anomalies by wavenumber correlation analysis(WCA) are extracted to estimate the gravity effects that will be resulted from isostatic compensation for the area. With the resulting compensated gravity estimates, Moho depth that is a subsurface between the crust and mantle is estimated by the inversion in an iterative method with the constraints of 20 seismic depth estimates by the receiver function analysis, to minimize the uncertainty of non-uniqueness. Consequently, the average of the resulting crustal thickness estimate of Korean Peninsula is 32.15 km and the standard deviation is 3.12 km. Moho depth of South Korea estimated from this study is compared with the ones from the previous studies, showing they are approximately consistent. And the aspects of Moho undulation from the respective study are in common deep along Taebaek Mountains and Sobaek Mountains and low depth in Gyeongsang Basin relatively. Also, it is discussed that the terrain decorrelated free-air gravity anomalies inferring from the intracrustal characteristics of the crust are compared to the heat flow distributions of South Korea. The low-frequency components of terrain decorrelated Free-air gravity anomalies are highly correlated with the heat flow data, especially in the area of Gyeongsang basin where high heat flow causes to decrease the density of the rocks in the lower crust resulting in lowering the Moho depth by compensation. This result confirms that the high heat sources in this area coming from the upper mantle by Kim et al. (2008).