• Title/Summary/Keyword: data and chance

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Locational Characteristics of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza(HPAI) Outbreak Farm (고병원성 조류인플루엔자(HPAI) 발생농가 입지특성)

  • KIM, Dong-Hyeon;BAE, Sun-Hak
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.140-155
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    • 2020
  • This study was conducted to identify the location characteristics of infected farms in the areas where livestock diseases were clustered(southern Gyeonggi-do and Chungcheong-do), analyze the probability of disease occurrence in poultry farms, find out the areas corresponding to the conditions, and use them as the basis for prevention of livestock diseases, selection of discriminatory prevention zones, and establishment of prevention strategies and as the basic data for complementary measures. The increase of one poultry farm within a radius of 3-kilometers increases the risk of HPAI infection by 10.9% compared to the previous situation. The increase of 1m in distance from major roads with two lanes or more reduces the probability of HPAI infection by 0.001% compared to the previous situation. If the distance of the poultry farm located with 15 kilometers from a major migratory bird habitat increases by 15 to 30 kilometers, the chance of infection with HPAI is reduced by 46.0%. And if the distance of the same poultry farm increase by more than 30 kilometers, the chances of HPAI infection are reduced by 88.5%. Based on the results of logistic regression, the predicted probability was generated and the actual area of the location condition with 'more than 15 poultry farms within 3km a radius of, within 1km distance from major roads, and within 30km distance from major migratory birds habitat was determined and the infection rate was measured. It is expected that the results of this study will be used as basic data for preparing the data and supplementary measures when the quarantine authorities establish discriminatory quarantine areas and prevention strategies, such as preventive measures for the target areas and farms, or control of vehicles, by identifying the areas where livestock diseases are likely to occur in the region.

An Epistemological Inquiry on the Development of Statistical Concepts (통계적 개념 발달에 관한 인식론적 고찰)

  • Lee, Young-Ha;Nam, Joo-Hyun
    • The Mathematical Education
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    • v.44 no.3 s.110
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    • pp.457-475
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    • 2005
  • We have inquired on what the statistical classes of the secondary schools had been aiming to, say the epistermlogical objects. And we now appreciate that the main obstacle to the systematic articulation is the lack of anticipation on what the statistical concepts are. This study focuses on the ingredients of the statistical concepts. Those are to be the ground of the systematic articulation of statistic courses, especially of the one for the school kids. Thus we required that those ingredients must satisfy the followings. i) directly related to the contents of statistics ii) psychologically developing iii) mutually exclusive each other as much as possible iv) exhaustive enough to cover all statistical concepts We examined what and how statisticians had been doing and the various previous views on these. After all we suggest the following three concepts are the core of conceptual developments of statistic, say the concept of distributions, the summarizing ability and the concept of samples. By the concepts of distributions we mean the frequency views on each random categories and that is developing from the count through the probability along ages. Summarizing ability is another important resources to embed his probe with the data set. It is not only viewed as a number but also to be anticipated as one reflecting a random phenomena. Inductive generalization is one of the most hazardous thing. Statistical induction is a scientific way of challenging this and this starts from distinguishing the chance with the inevitable consequences. One's inductive logic grows up along with one's deductive arguments, nevertheless they are different. The concept of samples reflects' one's view on the sample data and the way of compounding one's logic with the data within one's hypothesis. With these three in mind we observed Korean Statistic Curriculum from K to 12. Distributional concepts are dealt with throughout but not sequenced well. The way of summarization has been introduced in the 1 st, 5th, 7th and the 10th grade as a numerical value only. One activity on the concept of sample is given at the 6th grade. And it jumps into the statistical reasoning at the selective courses of ' Mathematics I ' or of ' Probability and Statistics ' in the grades of 11-12. We want to suggest further studies on the developing stages of these three conceptual features so as to obtain a firm basis of successive statistical articulation.

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Analysis of Soil Erosion Hazard Zone using GIS (GIS를 이용한 토양침식 위험지역 분석)

  • Kim, Joo-Hun;Kim, Kyung-Tak;Yeon, Gyu-Bang
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.22-32
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze soil erosion quantity of a basin by using DEM, soil map and landuse map and to find a soil erosion hazard zone in a basin based on this data. In this study, RUSLE was used to analyze soil loss quantity and the research area chosen is Mushim stream which branches off the Geum river. This study used a mean annual precipitation of Cheongju Meteorological Observation was used as a hydrological data and DEM, the detailed soil map(1/25,000), the landuse map collected respectively from Ministry of Environment, National Institute of Agricultural Science and Technology and Ministry of Construction and Transportation. The subject map was drawn to analyze soil erosion hazard zone by using the above data and maps. According to the results of the analysis, a lot of soil loss shows in a bare area. In case of a forest, a slope has a lot of influence on soil loss. The integration and analysis of the above gave the result that $193,730.3m^2$corresponding to 8.5% of the places of which the slope is over 20 degree in a bare area was found to have a higher chance of soil erosion.

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Study on the Relations to Estimate Instrumental Seismic Intensities for the Moderate Earthquakes in South Korea (국내 중규모 지진에 대한 계측진도 추정식 연구)

  • Yun, Kwan-Hee;Lee, Kang-Ryel
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.323-332
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    • 2018
  • Recent two moderate earthquakes (2016 $M_w=5.4$ Gyeongju and 2017 $M_w=5.5$ Pohang) in Korea provided the unique chance of developing a set of relations to estimate instrumental seismic intensity in Korea by augmenting the time-history data from MMI seismic intensity regions above V to the insufficient data previously accumulated from the MMI regions limited up to IV. The MMI intensity regions of V and VI was identified by delineating the epicentral distance from the reference intensity statistics in distance derived by using the integrated MMI data obtained by combining the intensity survey results of KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and 'DYFI (Did You Feel It)' MMIs of USGS. The time-histories of the seismic stations from the MMI intensity regions above V were then preprocessed by applying the previously developed site-correction filters to be converted to a site-equivalent condition in a manner consistent with the previous study. The average values of the ground-motion parameters for the three ground motion parameters of PGA, PGV and BSPGA (Bracketed Summation of PGA per second for 30 seconds) were calculated for the MMI=V and VI and used to generate the dataset of the average values of the ground-motion parameters for the individual MMIs from I to VI. Based on this dataset, the linear regression analysis resulted in the following relations with proposed valid ranges of MMI. $MMI=2.36{\times}log_{10}(PGA(gal))+1.44$ ($I{\leq}MMI$$MMI=2.44{\times}log_{10}(PGV(kine))+4.86$ ($I{\leq}MMI$$MMI=2.59{\times}log_{10}(BSPGA(gal{\cdot}sec))-1.02$ ($I{\leq}MMI$

A Rule-Based Vehicle Tracking with Multiple Video Sequences (복수개의 동영상 시퀜스를 이용한 차량추적)

  • Park, Eun-Jong;So, Hyung-Junn;Jeong, Sung-Hwan;Lee, Joon-Whoan
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.45-56
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    • 2007
  • Automatic tracking of vehicles is important to accurately estimate the traffic information including vehicle speeds in video-based traffic measurement systems. Because of the limited field of view, the range of visual tracking with a single camera is restricted. In order to enlarge the tracking range for better chance of monitoring the vehicle behaviors, a tracking with consecutive multiple video sequences is necessary. This parer proposes a carefully designed rule-based vehicle racking scheme and apply it for the tracking for two well synchronized video sequences. In the scheme, almost all possible cases that can appear in the video-based vehicle tracking are considered to make rules. Also, the rule based scheme is augmented with Kalman filter. The result of tracking can be successfully used to collect data such as temporal variation of vehicle speed and behavior of individual vehicle behaviors in the enlarged tracking region.

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A Mathematical Model for Coordinated Multiple Reservoir Operation (댐군의 연계운영을 위한 수학적 모형)

  • Kim, Seung-Gwon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.779-793
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    • 1998
  • In this study, for the purpose of water supply planning, we propose a sophisticated multi-period mixed integer programming model that can coordinate the behavior of multi-reservoir operation, minimizing unnecessary spill. It can simulate the system with operating rules which are self- generated by the optimization engine in the algorithm. It is an optimization model in structure, but it indeed simulates the coordinating behavior of multi-reservoir operation. It minimizes the water shortfalls in demand requirements, maintaining flood reserve volume, minimizing unnecessary spill, maximizing hydropower generation release, keeping water storage levels high for efficient hydroelectric turbine operation. This optimization model is a large scale mixed integer programming problem that consists of 3.920 integer variables and 68.658 by 132.384 node-arc incidence matrix for 28 years of data. In order to handle the enormous amount of data generated by a big mathematical model, the utilization of DBMS (data base management system)seems to be inevitable. It has been tested with the Han River multi-reservoir system in Korea, which consists of 2 large multipurpose dams and 3 hydroelectric dams. We demonstrated successfully that there is a good chance of saving substantial amount of water should it be put to use in real time with a good inflow forecasting system.

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Nurse's Power and Tactics in Nursing Practice (간호사의 업무수행상의 권한과 행사전략)

  • Han, Hye-Ja
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing Administration
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.23-37
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    • 1999
  • This study is to understand and to describe the power that a nurse experiences on nursing practice and then. to present a basic data for nurse's power-development, power improving and empowering. Ethnography was used to understand and to describe experience on exercising various powers occurred on nursing practice. and to analyze and to understand the meaning of a nurse's power. The objects was nurses. Ten nurses who have more than three year's experience were selected as objects from Cuniversity's hospital in Seoul from May of 1996 to August of 1997 through in-depth interview. participant observation, and phone interview. Instruments werw a portable recorder and field notes. I described a case appeared in a data using Agar's 'Pencil and scissors' method right after collecting materials. Then, Idescribed a theme discovered commonly. Followings are the results of the study. 1. There were three categories of relationships with main objects when nurses exercised their power on their practices: a therapeutic caring relationship with patients, a relationship of companion, vertical cooperation, and a constituent person with a doctor, and a relationship of cooperation, and a constituent person with administrative workers and medical technicians. 2. There were many types of nurse's power, tactics and various patient's responses about them. 1) Types of nurse's power to patients were giving information, controling environment, helping for cure, emotional support, and performing discretion. 2) Nurse's tatics for performing power were positive tactics neutral tactics, and negative tactics. 3) Patient's responses were appeared as compliance and noncompliance. Compliance were agreeing. taking nurse's advice, trusting, understanding, being admitted, exposuring himself, and appreciating. 3. There were types of nurse's power and performing tactics. 1) Types of power to a doctor were advice, informing, demanding and mediation. 2) Performings of tactics to a doctor were positive tactics, neutral tactics, and negative tactics. 3) Doctor's responses were appeared as accepting and unaccepting. Acceptings were taking in and appreciating, and unacceptings were denying nurse's advice and authoritative. 4. There were types of nurse's power and tactics about administrative workers and medical technicians and responses about them. 1) Types of power about administrative workers and medical technicians were suggestions and demands. 2) Power performings tactics were positive tactics.neutral tactics, and negative tactics. 3) Responses of administrative workers and medical technicians about nurse's power performing were appeared appeared as accepting and unacce pting. Acceptings were taking in, and unacceptings were denying. Therefore, it can be said that types of nurse's power and performing tactics on nursing practice and nurse's power based on responses of a patient, a doctor, an administrative worker, and a medical technicians are power or influence for agreeing, taking advice, trusting, understanding, exposuring himself, appreciating, and taking in to objects. The results of this study helped to understand nurse's power. I expect that this study will improve nure's power by using expert power, referent power, and legitimate power effectively among powers acmpanied with the origin and that nurses make ef-ort to improve professional knowledge and human nature so that they use this study as a chance to develope expert nursing practice.

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A Study on the Factors Affecting Self-Regulation Program for Hypertensives (본태성 고혈압환자를 위한 자기조절 프로그램 관련요인 연구)

  • Park, Young-Im
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.234-249
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    • 1995
  • Essential hypertension, one of the leading primary cause of death in Korea, is a typical chronic disease requiring adequate and continuous management. Though these hypertensives need to maintain desirable health practice by themselves for their life time, many previous studies indicated that most of the essential hypertensives have no specific symptoms and thus, reluctant to follow appropriate medical regimens causing the condition further aggravated and complicated. Thus the comprehensive self-regulation program was conducted as a nursing intervention on the promotion self-care 'performance and improvement in physical parameters of hypertensives. For this purpose, a one group quasi -experimental research with pre and post test design was used. And the whole program was carried out from October, 1993 to February, 1994. Self-regulation program was consisted with group education on hypertension and self-care, self-regulation including the blood pressure self-monitoring and recording, recording of daily self-care activities, and encouraging and reinforcing self-efficacy through verbal persuation and enactive attainment. The subjects were asked to measure their own blood pressure by themselves twice per day and to record blood pressure and the daily self-care performance according to the instructions provided during the whole period of 9 weeks. The data was analyzed by experimental stages: the first week, the fifth week, and the ninth week since the experimental imput began. Data were analyzed by the SPSS PC+ program with paired t -test and F-test, and multiple correlation to determine the variables affecting the effect of program. The results were as follows : 1) Subjects in J company were significantly lower diastolic blood pressure than K company after the program (t=2.39, p=.024). Level of cholesterol was significant difference according to position(t=2.23, p=.034), family history (t=-2.66, p=.013), diagnosis duration, and career(t=2.88, p=.055). Perceived self-efficacy was more significantly increased among the group with family history(t=-3.00, p=.013). 2) Before the program, there were significant positive correlation among the variables: internal-LOC and self-efficacy(r=.3952, p=.015), external-LOC and barriers (r=.6515, p=.000), chance-LOC and Barriers(r=.4133, p=.012). However there were significant negative correlation between internal-LOC and barriers (r=-.3236, p=.041, external-LOC and self -efficacy(r=-.3517, p=.028), self-efficacy and barriers(r=-.6654, p=.000). 3) There were significant relationships between changes in self - care performance and self-efficacy at 5th week (r=.5313, p=.001) and changes in self-efficacy at 9th week(r=.4586, p=.005). 4) After the program, internal health locus of control and perceived benefits showed significant correlation(r=.5673, p=.001, but perceived barriers was negative correlation with perceived self-efficacy (t=-4242, p=.01). From the above results, it can be concluded that the self-regulation program is an effective nursing strategy through the change of variables to promote self-care performance of hypertensives and to increase the self-efficacy. Thus this program can be recommended in the management of the hypertensives in workplaces and community settings.

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A Study on Stochastic Estimation of Monthly Runoff by Multiple Regression Analysis (다중회귀분석에 의한 하천 월 유출량의 추계학적 추정에 관한 연구)

  • 김태철;정하우
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.75-87
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    • 1980
  • Most hydro]ogic phenomena are the complex and organic products of multiple causations like climatic and hydro-geological factors. A certain significant correlation on the run-off in river basin would be expected and foreseen in advance, and the effect of each these causual and associated factors (independant variables; present-month rainfall, previous-month run-off, evapotranspiration and relative humidity etc.) upon present-month run-off(dependent variable) may be determined by multiple regression analysis. Functions between independant and dependant variables should be treated repeatedly until satisfactory and optimal combination of independant variables can be obtained. Reliability of the estimated function should be tested according to the result of statistical criterion such as analysis of variance, coefficient of determination and significance-test of regression coefficients before first estimated multiple regression model in historical sequence is determined. But some error between observed and estimated run-off is still there. The error arises because the model used is an inadequate description of the system and because the data constituting the record represent only a sample from a population of monthly discharge observation, so that estimates of model parameter will be subject to sampling errors. Since this error which is a deviation from multiple regression plane cannot be explained by first estimated multiple regression equation, it can be considered as a random error governed by law of chance in nature. This unexplained variance by multiple regression equation can be solved by stochastic approach, that is, random error can be stochastically simulated by multiplying random normal variate to standard error of estimate. Finally hybrid model on estimation of monthly run-off in nonhistorical sequence can be determined by combining the determistic component of multiple regression equation and the stochastic component of random errors. Monthly run-off in Naju station in Yong-San river basin is estimated by multiple regression model and hybrid model. And some comparisons between observed and estimated run-off and between multiple regression model and already-existing estimation methods such as Gajiyama formula, tank model and Thomas-Fiering model are done. The results are as follows. (1) The optimal function to estimate monthly run-off in historical sequence is multiple linear regression equation in overall-month unit, that is; Qn=0.788Pn+0.130Qn-1-0.273En-0.1 About 85% of total variance of monthly runoff can be explained by multiple linear regression equation and its coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.843. This means we can estimate monthly runoff in historical sequence highly significantly with short data of observation by above mentioned equation. (2) The optimal function to estimate monthly runoff in nonhistorical sequence is hybrid model combined with multiple linear regression equation in overall-month unit and stochastic component, that is; Qn=0. 788Pn+0. l30Qn-1-0. 273En-0. 10+Sy.t The rest 15% of unexplained variance of monthly runoff can be explained by addition of stochastic process and a bit more reliable results of statistical characteristics of monthly runoff in non-historical sequence are derived. This estimated monthly runoff in non-historical sequence shows up the extraordinary value (maximum, minimum value) which is not appeared in the observed runoff as a random component. (3) "Frequency best fit coefficient" (R2f) of multiple linear regression equation is 0.847 which is the same value as Gaijyama's one. This implies that multiple linear regression equation and Gajiyama formula are theoretically rather reasonable functions.

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A Study of the Relationship Between Perceived Health Locus of Control and Quality of Life of Cancer Patients. (암환자가 지각하는 건강통제위 성격과 삶의 질에 관한 관계연구 -방사선요법을 받는 암환자를 중심으로-)

  • Bang, Dong-Wan
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.69-84
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    • 2000
  • It has been reported that the cancer patient's quality of life is influenced by the perceived health state, self-esteem, health locus of control, social support, whether there is a pain or not, the stage of a disease, the period of a disease, etc, and however, there has been scarcely the research into the fact at home whose cultural and social backgrounds are entire1y different from those of American and European Countries. Accordingly, the author of this thesis performed this study. considering that it is necessary to know the relations between the health locus of control which make it possible to predict the object's behavior related to health and to make plans to induce the object or patient into sound behavior and the quality of life which is closely related to the cancer patient's health, emotion, society, economy, etc. on the whole. This study, a cross-sectional one, includes 135 subjects of $in{\cdot}out$ patients registered at Y University Hospital whose age are more than 20 years, From these patients, data were collected for two weeks through the questionnaire which content concerns about the quality of life and the health locus of control. All the collected data were processed and analyzed through Student's t-test, ANOVA, and the calculation of Pearson Correlation Coefficient, using the SAS program 1. It appeared that the disposition of health locus of control was mostly inclined to the disposition of powerful other health locus of control($28.37{\pm}4.24$), then inclined to internal health locus of control($27.03{\pm}4.17$), and next to chance health locus of control($19.71{\pm}4.97$) By the way. the disposition of powerful other health locus of control appeared a tittle bit higher than internal health locus of control 2. The degree of the quality of life appeared to be 137.54 points in the average of total points and 3.11 in the average evaluation mark. It appeared that the quality of life was most significantly influenced by a factor of 'relations with neighbors' and least significantly influenced by factors of physical conditions and functions. 3. It appeared that the relation between the disposition of health locus of control and the quality of life has nothing to do with the relation between internal health locus of control and the quality of life(r=.1446, P>.05) and also with the relation between the disposition of powerful other health locus of control(r=.0385, P>.05). In conclusion, in the study it has been found out that there is no correlation between the health locus of control and the quality of life, and however it is sound to induce the cancer patient to internal health locus of control. Therefore, it is necessary that under the special circumstances, the cancer patient's behavior should be predicted, thereby inducing the patient to the sound change of his or her behavior. Also in order that the patient enjoys his or her life satisfactorily while living, It is deemed that some kind of multilateral meditation in health and treatment is necessary so that the patient can feel the relief of pain, better health, etc.

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