• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.369-388
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• 2023

In this paper, we develop the two-step procedure that detects and estimates the position of structural changes for multivariate nonstationary time series, either on mean parameters or second-order structures. We first investigate the presence of mean structural change by monitoring data through the aggregated cumulative sum (CUSUM) type statistic, a sequential procedure identifying the likely position of the change point on its trend. If no mean change point is detected, the proposed method proceeds to scan the second-order structural change by modeling the multivariate nonstationary time series with a multivariate locally stationary Wavelet process, allowing the time-localized auto-correlation and cross-dependence. Under this framework, the estimated dynamic spectral matrices derived from the local wavelet periodogram capture the time-evolving scale-specific auto- and cross-dependence features of data. We then monitor the change point from the lower-dimensional approximated space of the spectral matrices over time by applying the dynamic principal component analysis. Different from existing methods requiring prior information on the type of changes between mean and covariance structures as an input for the implementation, the proposed algorithm provides the output indicating the type of change and the estimated location of its occurrence. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated in simulations and the analysis of two real finance datasets.

• Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.52 no.3
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• pp.503-522
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• 2015

In this paper, we consider the problem of testing for a parameter change in nonlinear time series models with GARCH type errors. We introduce two types of cumulative sum (CUSUM) tests: estimates-based and residual-based tests. It is shown that under regularity conditions, their limiting null distributions are the sup of independent Brownian bridges. A simulation study is conducted for illustration.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.101-109
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• 1997

For the detection on variance changes in the nonstationary time series with a unit root two types of test statistics are proposed, of which one is based on the cumulative sum of squares and the other is based on the likelihood ratio test. The properties of the cusum type test statistic are derived and the performance of two tests in small samples are compared through Monte Carlo study. It is ovserved that the test based on the cumulative sum of squares can detect a samll change in the variance faster than the one based on the likelihood ratio.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.417-427
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• 1997

In this paper the parameter change problem in the stationary time series is considered. We propose a cumulative sum (CUSUM) of squares-type test statistic for detection of parameter changes in the AR(1) process. The proposed test statistic is based on the CUSIM of the squared observations and is shown to converge to a standard Brownian bridge. Simulations are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed statistic and a real example is provided to illustrate the procedure.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.735-744
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• 2021

Maintaining the lifetime of a product is one of the objectives of quality control. In real processes, most samples are constructed with censored data because, in many situations, we cannot measure the lifetime of all samples due to time or cost problems. In this paper, we propose two cumulative sum (CUSUM) control charting procedures to monitor the mean of type I right-censored lognormal lifetime data. One of them is based on the likelihood ratio, and the other is based on the binomial distribution. Through simulations, we evaluate the performance of the two proposed procedures by comparing the average run length (ARL). The overall performance of the likelihood ratio CUSUM chart is better, especially this chart performs better when the censoring rate is low and the shape parameter value is small. Conversely, the binomial CUSUM chart is shown to perform better when the censoring rate is high, the shape parameter value is large, and the change in the mean is small.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.787-796
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• 2014

Situations where sample size is not constant are common when monitoring a process with Poisson count data. In this paper, we propose a generalized likelihood ratio(GLR) control chart to detect shifts in the Poisson rate when the sample size varies. The performance of the proposed GLR chart is compared with the performance of several cumulative sum(CUSUM) type charts. It is shown that the overall performance of the GLR chart is comparable with CUSUM type charts and is significantly better in cases where the actual value of the shift is different from the pre-specified value in CUSUM type charts.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.823-833
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• 2016

The lifetime is a key characteristic of product quality. It is best to obtain the lifetime data of all samples, but they are often censored due to time or expense limitations. In this paper, we propose a binomial cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart to monitor the mean of type I right-censored Weibull lifetime data, for a xed value of the Weibull shape parameter. We compare the performance of the proposed binomial CUSUM chart with CUSUM charts studied previously using the steady-state average run length (ARL). The results show that the performance of the binomial CUSUM chart is better when the censoring rate is high and/or the sample size is small.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.395-407
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• 2020

Most classification accuracy measures for optimal threshold are divided into two types: one is expressed with cumulative distribution functions and probability density functions, the other is based on ROC curve and AUC. Unal (2017) proposed the index of union (IU) as an accuracy measure that considers two types to get them. In this study, ten kinds of accuracy measures (including IU) are divided into six categories, and the advantages of the IU are studied by comparing the measures belonging to each category. The optimal thresholds of these measures are obtained by setting various normal mixture distributions; subsequently, the first and second type of errors as well as the error sums corresponding to each threshold are calculated. The properties and characteristics of the IU statistic are explored by comparing the discriminative power of other accuracy measures based on error values.The values of the first type error and error sum of IU statistic converge to those of the best accuracy measures of the second category as the mean difference between the two distributions increases. Therefore, IU could be an accuracy measure to evaluate the discriminant power of a model.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.1191-1201
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• 2009

The cumulative sum(CUSUM) control charts are typically used for detecting small level shifts in process control. To control an auto-correlated process, the model-based control methods can be employed, in which the residuals from fitting a time series model are applied to the CUSUM chart. However, the persistent level shifts in the original process may lead to varying mean shifts in residuals, which may deteriorate detection performance significantly. Therefore, in this paper, focussing on ARMA(1,1), we propose a new CUSUM type control method which can detect the dynamic mean shifts in residuals especially with oscillating pattern effectively and, through the simulation study, evaluate its performance by comparing with other various CUSUM type control methods introduced so far.