• Title/Summary/Keyword: continuous time risk model

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A Study on Decision Making Factors of Cloud Computing Adoption Using BCOR Approach (BCOR 접근법을 이용한 클라우드 컴퓨팅 도입의 의사결정 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Young-Chan;Hanh, Tang Nguyen
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.155-171
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    • 2012
  • With the continuous and outstanding development of information technology(IT), human being is coming to the new computing era which is called cloud computing. This era brings lots of huge benefits also at the same time release the resources of IT infrastructure and data boom for man. In the future no longer, most of IT service providers, enterprises, organizations and systems will adopt this new computing model. There are three main deployment models in cloud computing including public cloud, private cloud and hybrid cloud; each one also has its own cons and pros. While implementing any kind of cloud services, customers have to choose one of three above deployment models. Thus, our paper aims to represent a practical framework to help the adopter select which one will be the best suitable deployment model for their requirements by evaluating each model comprehensively. The framework is built by applying the analytic hierarchy process(AHP), namely benefit-cost-opportunity-risk(BCOR) model as a powerful and effective tool to serve the problem. The gained results hope not only to provide useful information for the readers but also to contribute valuable knowledge to this new area. In addition, it might support the practitioners' effective decision making process in case they meet the same issue and have a positive influence on the increase of right decision for the organization.

Characteristics of Stochastic Volatility in Korean Stock Returns (우리나라 주식수익률의 확률변동성 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Kook-Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.213-231
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    • 2003
  • This paper uses the Efficient Method of Moments(EMM) of Gallant and Tauchen to estimate continuous-time stochastic volatility diffusion model for the Korean Composite Stock Price Index, sampled daily over $1995\sim2002$. The estimates display non-normality of stock index return, leptokurtic distribution, and stochastic volatility. Funker, this study suggests that two factor stochastic volatility model will be more desirable than one factor stochastic volatility model to estimate daily Korean stock return and also suggests that the stochastic volatility diffusions should allow for Poisson jumps of time-varying intensity.

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An Empirical Study on Perceived Value and Continuous Intention to Use of Smart Phone, and the Moderating Effect of Personal Innovativeness (스마트폰의 지각된 가치와 지속적 사용의도, 그리고 개인 혁신성의 조절효과)

  • Han, Joonhyoung;Kang, Sungbae;Moon, Taesoo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.53-84
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    • 2013
  • With rapid development of ICT (Information and Communications Technology), new services by the convergence of mobile network and application technology began to appear. Today, smart phone with new ICT convergence network capabilities is exceedingly popular and very useful as a new tool for the development of business opportunities. Previous studies based on Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) suggested critical factors, which should be considered for acquiring new customers and maintaining existing users in smart phone market. However, they had a limitation to focus on technology acceptance, not value based approach. Prior studies on customer's adoption of electronic utilities like smart phone product showed that the antecedents such as the perceived benefit and the perceived sacrifice could explain the causality between what is perceived and what is acquired over diverse contexts. So, this research conceptualizes perceived value as a trade-off between perceived benefit and perceived sacrifice, and we need to research the perceived value to grasp user's continuous intention to use of smart phone. The purpose of this study is to investigate the structured relationship between benefit (quality, usefulness, playfulness) and sacrifice (technicality, cost, security risk) of smart phone users, perceived value, and continuous intention to use. In addition, this study intends to analyze the differences between two subgroups of smart phone users by the degree of personal innovativeness. Personal innovativeness could help us to understand the moderating effect between how perceptions are formed and continuous intention to use smart phone. This study conducted survey through e-mail, direct mail, and interview with smart phone users. Empirical analysis based on 330 respondents was conducted in order to test the hypotheses. First, the result of hypotheses testing showed that perceived usefulness among three factors of perceived benefit has the highest positive impact on perceived value, and then followed by perceived playfulness and perceived quality. Second, the result of hypotheses testing showed that perceived cost among three factors of perceived sacrifice has significantly negative impact on perceived value, however, technicality and security risk have no significant impact on perceived value. Also, the result of hypotheses testing showed that perceived value has significant direct impact on continuous intention to use of smart phone. In this regard, marketing managers of smart phone company should pay more attention to improve task efficiency and performance of smart phone, including rate systems of smart phone. Additionally, to test the moderating effect of personal innovativeness, this research conducted multi-group analysis by the degree of personal innovativeness of smart phone users. In a group with high level of innovativeness, perceived usefulness has the highest positive influence on perceived value than other factors. Instead, the analysis for a group with low level of innovativeness showed that perceived playfulness was the highest positive factor to influence perceived value than others. This result of the group with high level of innovativeness explains that innovators and early adopters are able to cope with higher level of cost and risk, and they expect to develop more positive intentions toward higher performance through the use of an innovation. Also, hedonic behavior in the case of the group with low level of innovativeness aims to provide self-fulfilling value to the users, in contrast to utilitarian perspective, which aims to provide instrumental value to the users. However, with regard to perceived sacrifice, both groups in general showed negative impact on perceived value. Also, the group with high level of innovativeness had less overall negative impact on perceived value compared to the group with low level of innovativeness across all factors. In both group with high level of innovativeness and with low level of innovativeness, perceived cost has the highest negative influence on perceived value than other factors. Instead, the analysis for a group with high level of innovativeness showed that perceived technicality was the positive factor to influence perceived value than others. However, the analysis for a group with low level of innovativeness showed that perceived security risk was the second high negative factor to influence perceived value than others. Unlike previous studies, this study focuses on influencing factors on continuous intention to use of smart phone, rather than considering initial purchase and adoption of smart phone. First, perceived value, which was used to identify user's adoption behavior, has a mediating effect among perceived benefit, perceived sacrifice, and continuous intention to use smart phone. Second, perceived usefulness has the highest positive influence on perceived value, while perceived cost has significant negative influence on perceived value. Third, perceived value, like prior studies, has high level of positive influence on continuous intention to use smart phone. Fourth, in multi-group analysis by the degree of personal innovativeness of smart phone users, perceived usefulness, in a group with high level of innovativeness, has the highest positive influence on perceived value than other factors. Instead, perceived playfulness, in a group with low level of innovativeness, has the highest positive factor to influence perceived value than others. This result shows that early adopters intend to adopt smart phone as a tool to make their job useful, instead market followers intend to adopt smart phone as a tool to make their time enjoyable. In terms of marketing strategy for smart phone company, marketing managers should pay more attention to identify their customers' lifetime value by the phase of smart phone adoption, as well as to understand their behavior intention to accept the risk and uncertainty positively. The academic contribution of this study primarily is to employ the VAM (Value-based Adoption Model) as a conceptual foundation, compared to TAM (Technology Acceptance Model) used widely by previous studies. VAM is useful for understanding continuous intention to use smart phone in comparison with TAM as a new IT utility by individual adoption. Perceived value dominantly influences continuous intention to use smart phone. The results of this study justify our research model adoption on each antecedent of perceived value as a benefit and a sacrifice component. While TAM could be widely used in user acceptance of new technology, it has a limitation to explain the new IT adoption like smart phone, because of customer behavior intention to choose the value of the object. In terms of theoretical approach, this study provides theoretical contribution to the development, design, and marketing of smart phone. The practical contribution of this study is to suggest useful decision alternatives concerned to marketing strategy formulation for acquiring and retaining long-term customers related to smart phone business. Since potential customers are interested in both benefit and sacrifice when evaluating the value of smart phone, marketing managers in smart phone company has to put more effort into creating customer's value of low sacrifice and high benefit so that customers will continuously have higher adoption on smart phone. Especially, this study shows that innovators and early adopters with high level of innovativeness have higher adoption than market followers with low level of innovativeness, in terms of perceived usefulness and perceived cost. To formulate marketing strategy for smart phone diffusion, marketing managers have to pay more attention to identify not only their customers' benefit and sacrifice components but also their customers' lifetime value to adopt smart phone.

Factors Influencing Acceptance Resistance of Personal Health Record Apps: Focusing on the Privacy Calculus Model (개인건강기록 앱 수용저항에 영향을 미치는 요인: 프라이버시 계산모형을 중심으로)

  • Sang Ho Kim;Eunkyung Kang;Sung-Byung Yang
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.165-187
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    • 2023
  • The continuous increase in life expectancy and high interest in health has brought about significant changes in the use of health information by the public according to the development of information technology represented by the Internet and smartphones. As the medical market expands to the mobile health environment, many health-related apps have been created and distributed, but the acceptance rate is slow as it has become challenging to provide services due to various regulations. In this study, perceived value, perceived risk factors (psychological risk, risk of time-loss, legal risk), and perceived benefits (usefulness, interaction, autonomy) were derived and verified as factors that affect the acceptance resistance of personal health record apps based on the privacy calculation model. In addition, by analyzing the moderating effect of trust in the manufacturer, how the perceived risk and perceived benefit affect the perceived value was verified. A survey was conducted on Korean college students who recognized the personal health record apps but did not use them, and 127 samples were analyzed using structural equations. As a result of hypothesis verification, perceived value has a negative effect on acceptance resistance, perceived risk (risk of time-loss) has a negative effect on perceived value, and perceived benefits (usefulness, interaction, autonomy) were found to have a positive effect on perceived value. Trust in manufacturers has weakened the impact of perceived risks (legal risk) on perceived values. This study is expected to play an important role in maintaining a competitive advantage in the personal health record app market environment by identifying and proposing detailed criteria for reducing the acceptance resistance of personal health record apps.

Ruin probabilities in a risk process perturbed by diffusion with two types of claims (두 가지 유형의 보험청구가 있는 확산과정 리스크 모형의 파산확률)

  • Won, Ho Jeong;Choi, Seung Kyoung;Lee, Eui Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we introduce a continuous-time risk model where the surplus follows a diffusion process with positive drift while being subject to two types of claims. We assume that the sizes of both types of claims are exponentially distributed and that type I claims occur more frequently, however, their sizes are smaller than type II claims. We obtain the ruin probability that the level of the surplus becomes negative, by establishing an integro-differential equation for the ruin probability. We also obtain the ruin probabilities caused by each type of claim and the probability that the level of the surplus becomes negative naturally due to the diffusion process. Finally, we illustrate a numerical example to compare the impacts of two types of claim on the ruin probability of the surplus with that of the diffusion process in the risk model.

Seismic Risk Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Bridge Piers using Local Damage (국부손상을 이용한 RC교각의 지진위험도 분석)

  • Lee, Dae-Hyoung;Kim, Hyun-Jun;Park, Chang-Ky;Chung, Young-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.194-197
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    • 2006
  • This study represents results of fragility curve development for 4-span continuous bridge. 2 type bridge model is chosen frame type and 2-roller 1-hinge type. To research the response of bridge under earthquake excitation, Monte Carlo simulation is performed to study nonlinear dynamic analysis. For nonlinear time history analysis a set of 150 synthetic time histories were generated. Fragility curves in this study are represented by lognormal distribution functions with two parameters and developed as a function of PGA. Five damage states were defined to express the condition of damage based on the actual experimental damage data of bridge column. As a result of this research, the value of damage probability corresponding to each damage state were determined and frame type bridge are favorable under seismic event.

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Minimally Invasive Procedure versus Conventional Redo Sternotomy for Mitral Valve Surgery in Patients with Previous Cardiac Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

  • Muhammad Ali Tariq;Minhail Khalid Malik;Qazi Shurjeel Uddin;Zahabia Altaf;Mariam Zafar
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.56 no.6
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    • pp.374-386
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    • 2023
  • Background: The heightened morbidity and mortality associated with repeat cardiac surgery are well documented. Redo median sternotomy (MS) and minimally invasive valve surgery are options for patients with prior cardiac surgery who require mitral valve surgery (MVS). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis comparing the outcomes of redo MS and minimally invasive MVS (MIMVS) in this population. Methods: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Scopus for studies comparing outcomes of redo MS and MIMVS for MVS. To calculate risk ratios (RRs) for binary outcomes and weighted mean differences (MDs) for continuous data, we employed a random-effects model. Results: We included 12 retrospective observational studies, comprising 4157 participants (675 for MIMVS; 3482 for redo MS). Reductions in mortality (RR, 0.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.37-0.80), length of hospital stay (MD, -4.23; 95% CI, -5.77 to -2.68), length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay (MD, -2.02; 95% CI, -3.17 to -0.88), and new-onset acute kidney injury (AKI) risk (odds ratio, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.19 to 0.61) were statistically significant and favored MIMVS (p<0.05). No significant differences were observed in aortic cross-clamp time, cardiopulmonary bypass time, or risk of perioperative stroke, new-onset atrial fibrillation, surgical site infection, or reoperation for bleeding (p>0.05). Conclusion: The current literature, which primarily consists of retrospective comparisons, underscores certain benefits of MIMVS over redo MS. These include decreased mortality, shorter hospital and ICU stays, and reduced AKI risk. Given the lack of high-quality evidence, prospective randomized control trials with adequate power are necessary to investigate long-term outcomes.

Continuous DC-CIK Infusions Restore CD8+ Cellular Immunity, Physical Activity and Improve Clinical Efficacy in Advanced Cancer Patients Unresponsive to Conventional Treatments

  • Zhao, Yan-Jie;Jiang, Ni;Song, Qing-Kun;Wu, Jiang-Ping;Song, Yu-Guang;Zhang, Hong-Mei;Chen, Feng;Zhou, Lei;Wang, Xiao-Li;Zhou, Xin-Na;Yang, Hua-Bing;Ren, Jun;Lyerly, Herbert Kim
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.2419-2423
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    • 2015
  • Background: There are few choices for treatment of advanced cancer patients who do not respond to or tolerate conventional anti-cancer treatments. Therefore this study aimed to deploy the benefits and clinical efficacy of continuous dendritic cell-cytokine induced killer cell infusions in such patients. Materials and Methods: A total of 381 infusions (from 67 advanced cases recruited) were included in this study. All patients underwent peripheral blood mononuclear cell apheresis for the following cellular therapy and dendritic cells-cytokine induced killer cells were expanded in vitro. Peripheral blood T lymphocyte subsets were quantified through flow cytometry to address the cellular immunity status. Clinical efficacy and physical activities were evaluated by RECIST criteria and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group scores respectively. Logistic regression model was used to estimate the association between cellular infusions and clinical benefits. Results: An average of $5.7{\pm}2.94{\times}10^9$ induced cells were infused each time and patients were exposed to 6 infusions. Cellular immunity was improved in that cytotoxic $CD8^+CD28^+$ T lymphocytes were increased by 74% and suppressive $CD8^+CD28^-$ T lymphocytes were elevated by 16% (p<0.05). Continuous infusion of dendritic cells-cytokine induced killer cells was associated with improvement of both patient status and cellular immunity. A median of six infusions were capable of reducing risk of progression by 70% (95%CI 0.10-0.91). Every elevation of one ECOG score corresponded to a 3.90-fold higher progression risk (p<0.05) and 1% increase of $CD8^+CD28^-$ T cell proportion reflecting a 5% higher risk of progression (p<0.05). Conclusions: In advanced cancer patients, continuous dendritic cell-cytokine induced killer cell infusions are capable of recovering cellular immunity, improving patient status and quality of life in those who are unresponsive to conventional cancer treatment.

Bayesian Network Model to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Continuous Positive Airway Pressure Treatment of Sleep Apnea

  • Ryynanen, Olli-Pekka;Leppanen, Timo;Kekolahti, Pekka;Mervaala, Esa;Toyras, Juha
    • Healthcare Informatics Research
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.346-358
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: The association between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and mortality or serious cardiovascular events over a long period of time is not clearly understood. The aim of this observational study was to estimate the clinical effectiveness of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) treatment on an outcome variable combining mortality, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and cerebrovascular insult (CVI) during a follow-up period of 15.5 years ($186{\pm}58$ months). Methods: The data set consisted of 978 patients with an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) ${\geq}5.0$. One-third had used CPAP treatment. For the first time, a data-driven causal Bayesian network (DDBN) and a hypothesis-driven causal Bayesian network (HDBN) were used to investigate the effectiveness of CPAP. Results: In the DDBN, coronary heart disease (CHD), congestive heart failure (CHF), and diuretic use were directly associated with the outcome variable. Sleep apnea parameters and CPAP treatment had no direct association with the outcome variable. In the HDBN, CPAP treatment showed an average improvement of 5.3 percentage points in the outcome. The greatest improvement was seen in patients aged ${\leq}55$ years. The effect of CPAP treatment was weaker in older patients (>55 years) and in patients with CHD. In CHF patients, CPAP treatment was associated with an increased risk of mortality, AMI, or CVI. Conclusions: The effectiveness of CPAP is modest in younger patients. Long-term effectiveness is limited in older patients and in patients with heart disease (CHD or CHF).

Successful ERP Implementation Model : Exploratory Model from Ernst & Young PER (Package Enabled Reengineering) and Change Management Methodology (성공적 ERP구축 모델 : Ernst & Young의 PER(Package Enabled Reengineering) 방법론과 변화관리 방법론을 중심으로 한 탐색적 모델)

  • An, Joon-Mo;Park, Dong-Bae
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.59-70
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    • 1998
  • According to the Gartner Group, the market for ERP software in Korea is growing rapidly. However, the number of successful ERP implementations is quite few. Standard(unmodified) ERP's are built based on best practices. Improvements expected from successful implementation are based on best practices built into the software. Many improvements are lost through modification to "standard" software. Even minor changes in software can significantly reduce benefits. Both implementation time and risk factors are increased with modifications. We introduce a methodology, called package Enable Re-engineering (PER) and the main components of change management program by Ernst & Young. "To-Be" model could be developed through the software capabilities. And change management processes such as continuous education and self-developments are required. The philosophy of the change management processes is to let the software package drive the re-engineering practices and avoid moving the software toward the "As-IS" process. Extensive top management involvement, major focus on speed, extensive communication program, and "clear" picture of the future are essential components of change management. We are sure that the complied experiences and model have implications for practice and for academicians for their endeavors in their fields.

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