• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.325-334
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• 2021

This study aims to investigate whether economic growth is elevated by banking industry development in Jordan. The study adopts time-series econometric methodologies, which comprise the bounds testing approach within the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the conditional causality analysis. Consistent with the assumptions of the adopted methodology, the study utilized annual time-series data for a relatively long period of thirty-nine years, between 1980 and 2018. The empirical results show that Jordan's economic growth is strongly responsive in respect to any changes in banking industry development. Also, the results reveal the harmful impact of rising lending interest rate; as this rate increases, economic growth will decrease. The findings are in line with the conceptual arguments of the supply-leading hypothesis, which confirmed that banking development is considered as one of the main pillars that have stimulating effects on economic growth. The evidence of the current study may provide important implications for policymakers and bankers. Those professionals should work to maintain a stable regulatory system that enhances the banking system function in activating economic growth. Also, a considerable focus should be placed on designing a steady interest rate policy to avoid the inherently undesirable impacts of high-interest rates on the Jordanian economy.

• 한국지반공학회논문집
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.51-59
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• 2007

다양한 불확실성을 체계적으로 반영하는 신뢰성 기반 해석기법을 사면안정 해석의 한 형식으로 제시한다. 통계오차, 공간 변동성, 그리고 공간 평균의 효과를 고려할 수 있는 지반특성 표현식이 사용되었다. 여러 가지 형식의 지반특성 표현식을 이용하여 사면안정 신뢰성 해석을 수행한 결과 통계오차, 공간적 상관성, 그리고 조건부 해석기법을 사용할 경우가 기존의 단순 확률변수 기법에 비해 상당히 작은 파괴확률을 제시한다는 사실이 밝혀졌다. 이 결과는 사면안정 해석에서 공간적 변동성과 통계오차가 합리적으로 고려되어야 한다는 점을 제시한다.

• 무역학회지
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• 제47권3호
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• pp.211-232
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• 2022

Due to the impact of the public health event COVID-19 epidemic, the Chinese futures market showed "Black Swan". This has brought the unpredictable into the economic environment with many commodities falling by the daily limit, while gold performed well and closed in the sunshine(Yan-Li and Rui Qian-Wang, 2020). Volatility is integral part of financial market. As an emerging market and a special precious metal, it is important to forecast return of gold futures price. This study selected data of the SHFE gold futures returns and conducted an empirical analysis based on the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type model. Comparing the statistics of AIC, SC and H-QC, ARMA (12,9) model was selected as the best model. But serial correlation in the squared returns suggests conditional heteroskedasticity. Next part we established the autoregressive moving average ARMA-GARCH-type model to analysis whether Volatility Clustering and the leverage effect exist in the Chinese gold futures market. we consider three different distributions of innovation to explain fat-tailed features of financial returns. Additionally, the error degree and prediction results of different models were evaluated in terms of mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Theil inequality coefficient(TIC) and root mean-squared error (RMSE). The results show that the ARMA(12,9)-TGARCH(2,2) model under Student's t-distribution outperforms other models when predicting the Chinese gold futures return series.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제3권3호
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• pp.25-30
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• 1996

In discriminant analysis the procedures commonly used to estimate the dimensionality involve testing a sequence of dimensionality hypotheses. There is a problem with the size of the test since dimensionality hypotheses are tested sequentially and thus they are actually conditional tests. The focus of this paper is to investigate in asymptotic sense what happens to the sequential testing procedure if the assumption of normality does not hold.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제2권3호
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• pp.17-22
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• 2015

This paper examines the effect of impulsiveness of euro on Indian stock market. In order to examine the problem, we select rupee-euro exchange rates and S&P CNX NIFTY and BSE30 SENSEX to represent stock price. We select euro as it considered as second most widely used currency at the international level after dollar. The data are collected a daily basis over a period of 3-Apr-2007 to 30-Mar-2012. The statistical and time series properties of each and every variable have examined using the conventional unit root such as ADF and PP test. Adopting a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, the study suggests a negative relationship between exchange rate and stock prices in India. Even though India is a major trade partner of European Union, the study couldn't find any significant statistical effect of fluctuations in Euro-rupee exchange rates on stock prices. The study also reveals that shocks to exchange rate have symmetric effect on stock prices and exchange rate fluctuations have permanent effects on stock price volatility in India.

• 한국습지학회지
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.45-57
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• 2004

본 연구에서는 우리나라의 치수경제성 분석에 있어 계량화되지 않은 토지이용고도화 편익 효과를 치수안전도와 더불어 분석하고자 하였다. 토지이용고도화는 치수사업시행으로 해당지역의 치수안전도 향상에 따른 토지가치의 상승을 말하는데, 특정지역의 토지가치를 가장 객관적으로 표현할 수 있는 공시지가를 근거로 분석을 수행하였다. 치수사업시행에 의한 편익의 효과와 하천 특성에 따른 지가변동률이 통계적으로 유의성이 있는지 분산분석을 통해 검증하였으며, 토지이용가치의 상승을 순연평균지가변동률로 나타내었다. 치수안전도는 홍수피해 잠재성과 홍수방어능력으로 구분하였는데 홍수피해 잠재성은 도시화율에 따라 구분하였고, 홍수방어능력은 홍수량의 빈도해석과 불확실성을 고려하여 조건부 비초과확률로 나타내었다. 본 연구에서는 소도시 지역을 대상으로 200년 빈도의 홍수사상에 대해 10년, 50년 설계빈도로 건설된 제방의 조건부 비초과확률을 산정하여 지가변동률의 추이를 비교 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 소도시 지역에서는 조건부 비초과확률이 10%정도 상승했을 때 순연평균지가변동률이 5배정도 상승함을 알 수 있었다.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.33-44
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• 2018

Base-isolated nuclear power plant (BI-NPP) structures are founded on expanded basemat as a flexible floating nuclear island, are still lacking the recommendation of the consideration of incoherent motion effect. The effect of incoherent earthquake motion on the seismic response of BI-NPP structure has been investigated herein. The incoherency of the ground motions is applied by using an isotropic frequency-dependent spatial correlation function to perform the conditional simulation of the reference design spectrum compatible ground motion in time domain. Time history analysis of two structural models with 486 and 5 equivalent lead plug rubber bearing (LRB) base-isolators have been done under uniform excitation and multiple point excitation. two different cases have been considered: 1) Incoherent motion generated for soft soil and 2) Incoherent motion generated for hard rock soil. The results show that the incoherent motions reduce acceleration and the lateral displacement responses and the reduction is noticeable at soft soil site and higher frequencies.

• 한국GIS학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국GIS학회 2003년도 추계학술대회논문집
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• pp.3-8
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• 2003

Census data are usually provided at an aggregated level. However, the aggregated data are essentially arbitrary geographical areas. The areal units used to report census data have no natural or meaningful geographical identity. Unfortunately, this means that analyses of these area aggregations may be conditional upon the set of zones, which are presented. This effect is known as the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) and has two related aspects. First, scale effect is the variation in numerical results that occurs due to the number of zones used in an analysis. Second, results may also differ between different ways of aggregating exactly the same data to the same scale; this may be called the aggregation effect (Openshaw, 1984). This study aims to provide a practical tool for the study of MAUP. I have created a set of 91 areal units based on 280 basic units in Nonhyun-2 dong to solve zoning problem and scale problem. We can easily recognize the importance of areal classification as statistics were different according to areal classification.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.107-117
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• 2017

본 연구는 조건과정모델링에 기초하여 공익광고캠페인의 정서성과 이슈에 대한 수용적 태도의 관계에서 시각적 주의와 지각된 자아관련성의 매개효과와 매개변인에 대한 EEG 각성의 조절효과를 알아보고자 했다. 이를 위해 SPSS 22.0의 Multiple Mediation 절차와 SPSS Macro(14번)를 이용하여 조절된 매개효과를 분석하였다. 본 연구결과는 첫째, 공익캠페인의 정서성은 지각된 자아관련성을 매개로 이슈에 대한 수용적 태도에 유의미한 영향을 보였다. 둘째, EEG 각성은 시각적 주의 및 지각된 자아관련성과 유의미한 상호작용효과를 나타냈다. 셋째, 정서성과 수용적 태도의 관계에서 지각된 자아관련성의 매개효과는 EEG 각성에 의해 조절되는 효과를 보였다. 본 연구결과는 공익캠페인의 부정소구보다는 긍정소구에서만 유효하였다. 이러한 결과를 바탕으로 공익광고캠페인의 정서소구를 활용하기 위해서는 공익캠페인에 대한 소비자의 지각된 자아관련성과 주의를 전략적으로 결합할 수 있음을 확인하였다.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제11권10호
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• pp.73-79
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• 2013

Purpose - This study examines the impact of oil price volatility on economic activities in Korea. The new millennium has seen a deregulation in the crude oil market, which invited immense capital inflow into Korea. It has also raised oil price levels and volatility. Drawing on the recent theoretical literature that emphasizes the role of volatility, this paper attends to the asymmetric changes in economic growth in response to the oil price movement. This study further examines several key macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate, production, and inflation. We come to the conclusion that oil price volatility can, in some part, explain the structural changes. Research design, data, and methodology - We use two methodological frameworks in this study. First, in regards to the oil price uncertainty, we use an Exponential-GARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity: EGARCH) model estimate to elucidate the asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the conditional oil price volatility. Second, along with the estimation of the conditional volatility by the EGARCH model, we use the estimates in a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). The study thus examines the dynamic impacts of oil price volatility on industrial production, price levels, and monetary policy responses. We also approximate the monetary policy function by the yield of monetary stabilization bond. The data collected for the study ranges from 1990: M1 to 2013: M7. In the VECM analysis section, the time span is split into two sub-periods; one from 1990 to 1999, and another from 2000 to 2013, due to the U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) deregulation on the crude oil futures that became effective in 2000. This paper intends to probe the relationship between oil price uncertainty and macroeconomic variables since the structural change in the oil market became effective. Results and Conclusions - The dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the VECM show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on the industrial production across all sub-periods. We also find that inflation measured by CPI rises by one standard deviation shock in response to oil price uncertainty, and lasts for the ensuing period. In addition, the impulse response functions allude that South Korea practices an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price shocks, which stems from oil price uncertainty. Moreover, a comparison of the results of the dynamic impulse response functions from the two sub-periods suggests that the dynamic relationships have strengthened since 2000. Specifically, the results are most drastic in terms of industrial production; the impact of oil price volatility shocks has more than doubled from the year 2000 onwards. These results again indicate that the relationships between crude oil price uncertainty and Korean macroeconomic activities have been strengthened since the year2000, which resulted in a structural change in the crude oil market due to the deregulation of the crude oil futures.