Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society (한국지반공학회논문집)

Korean Geotechnical Society (한국지반공학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Reliability Analysis of Slope Stability with Sampling Related Uncertainty

통계오차를 고려한 사면안정 신뢰성 해석

  • Kim, Jin-Man (Dept. of Civil Engrg., Pusan National Univ.)
  • Published : 2007.03.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

A reliability-based approach that can systematically model various sources of uncertainty is presented in the context of slope stability. Expressions for characterization of soil properties are developed in order to incorporate sampling errors, spatial variability and its effect of spatial averaging. Reliability analyses of slope stability with different statistical representations of soil properties show that the incorporation of sampling error, spatial correlation, and conditional simulation leads to significantly lower probability of failure than that obtained by using simple random variable approach. The results strongly suggest that the spatial variability and sampling error have to be properly incorporated in slope stability analysis.

다양한 불확실성을 체계적으로 반영하는 신뢰성 기반 해석기법을 사면안정 해석의 한 형식으로 제시한다. 통계오차, 공간 변동성, 그리고 공간 평균의 효과를 고려할 수 있는 지반특성 표현식이 사용되었다. 여러 가지 형식의 지반특성 표현식을 이용하여 사면안정 신뢰성 해석을 수행한 결과 통계오차, 공간적 상관성, 그리고 조건부 해석기법을 사용할 경우가 기존의 단순 확률변수 기법에 비해 상당히 작은 파괴확률을 제시한다는 사실이 밝혀졌다. 이 결과는 사면안정 해석에서 공간적 변동성과 통계오차가 합리적으로 고려되어야 한다는 점을 제시한다.

Keywords

References

  1. Ang, A. H. S., and Tang, W. H. (1984), Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, Volume II-Decision, Risk, and Reliability, John Wiley & Sons, New York
  2. Ang, A. H. S., and Tang, W. H. (1975), Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, Volume I-Basic Principles, John Wiley & Sons, New York
  3. Christian, J. T., Ladd, C. C., and Baecher, G. B. (1994), 'Reliability Applied to Slope Stability Analysis', Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, ASCE, Vol.120, No.12, pp.2180-2207 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9410(1994)120:12(2180)
  4. Christian, J. T., and Urzua, A. (1998), 'Probabilistic Evaluation of Earthquake-Induced Slope Failure', Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, ASCE, Vol.124, No.11, pp.1140-1143 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(1998)124:11(1140)
  5. Cornell, C. A. (1969), 'Structural Safety Specification Based on Second-Moment Reliability', Symposium, International Association of Bridge and Structural Engineers, London
  6. Duncan, J. M. (2000), 'Factors of Safety and Reliability in Geotechnical Engineering', Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, ASCE, Vol.126, No.4, pp.307-316 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2000)126:4(307)
  7. Faravelli, L. (1989), 'Response Surface Approach for Reliability Analysis', Journal of Engineering Mechanics, ASCE, Vol.115, No.12, pp.2763-2781 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9399(1989)115:12(2763)
  8. Journel, A G. (1989), Fundamentals of Geostatistics in Five Lessons, American Geophysical Union
  9. Kim, J. (2001), Probabilistic Approach to Evaluation of EarthquakeInduced Permanent Deformation of Slopes, Ph.D. Dissertation, Dept. of Civil and Env. Engineering, University of California at Berkeley
  10. Kim, J. (2003), 'The Importance of Geotechnical Variability in the Analysis of Earthquake-Induced Slope Deformations', Journal of Korean Geotechnical Society, Vol.19, No.2, pp.123-133
  11. Krige, D. G. (1966), 'Two-Dimensional Weighted Moving Averaging Trend Surfaces for Ore Evaluation', Proceedings of Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Computer Applications for Ore Evaluation, Johannesburg, S. A, pp.13-38
  12. Li, K. S., and Lumb, P. (1987), 'Probabilistic Design of Slopes', Canadian Geotechnical Journal, Vol.24, pp.520-535 https://doi.org/10.1139/t87-068
  13. Li, K. S., and White, W. (1987a), Probabilistic Characterization of Soil Profiles, Research Report No.19, Department of Civil Engineering, University College, The University of New South Wales, Canberra, Australia
  14. Li, K. S., and White, W. (1987b), Probabilistic Approaches to Slope Design, Research Report No. 20, Department of Civil Engineering, University College, The University of New South Wales, Canberra, Australia
  15. Lin, P. L., and Der Kiureghian, A (1986), 'Multivariate Distribution Models with Prescribed Marginals and Covariances', Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, Vol.1, No.2, pp.105-112 https://doi.org/10.1016/0266-8920(86)90033-0
  16. Liu, P. L., Lin, H. Z., and Der Kiureghian, A (1989), CALREL User Manual, Report No. UCB/SEMM-89/18, Department of Civil Engineering, University of California at Berkeley, USA
  17. Madsen, H. 0., Krenk, S., and Lind, N. C. (1986), Methods of Structural Safety, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ
  18. Matheron, G. (1967), 'Kriging or Polynomial Interpolation Procedures', Canadian Institute of Mining Bulletin, Vol.60, pp.1041
  19. Rubinstein, R. Y. (1981), Simulation and the Monte Carlo method, John Wiley & Sons, New York
  20. Shinozuka, M. (1983), 'Basic Analysis of Structural Safety', Journal of Structural Engineering, ASCE, Vol.109, No.3, pp.721-740 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(1983)109:3(721)
  21. Tang, W. H. (1984), 'Principles of Probabilistic Characterization of Soil Properties', Proceedings of the Symposium on Probabilistic Characterization of Soil Properties, Atlanta, Georgia, pp.74-89
  22. Tang, W. H., Yucemen, M. S., and Ang, A H. S. (1976), 'Probability Based Short Term Design of Soil Slope', Canadian Geotechnical Journal, Vol.13, pp.201-215 https://doi.org/10.1139/t76-024
  23. Vanmarcke, E. (1983), Random Fields: Analysis and Synthesis, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts
  24. Vanmarcke, E. H. (1977a), 'Probabilistic Modeling of Soil Profiles', Journal of Geotechnical Engineering Division, ASCE, Vol.103 (GT11), pp.1227-124
  25. Vanmarcke, E. H. (1977b), 'Reliability of Earth Slopes', Journal of Geotechnical Engineering Division, ASCE, Vol.103 (GT11), pp.1247-1265