• Title/Summary/Keyword: conditional distribution

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Measuring the Relative Risk Aversion Coefficients of Apple Farmers (사과 농가의 상대위험회피계수 추정)

  • Lin, Qing-Long;Yeo, Jun-Ho;Kim, Tae-Kyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.1036-1044
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    • 2015
  • This paper estimates the relative risk aversion coefficients of apple farmers. Two hypothetical situations are designed and two-stage questionnaires are conducted for each situation. A utility function that has constant relative risk aversion was used, and it was assumed that the relative risk aversion coefficients follow a log-normal distribution. To reduce the hypothetical bias, the data was collected from repetitive questions. As a result, the mean and standard deviation of the relative risk aversion coefficients of apple farmers was 10.915 and 7.516, respectively. The relative risk aversion coefficients conditional on a survey response in each category were also measured. These findings can be used as parameters to analyze the effects of risk management tools.

Probabilistic Assessment of Seepage Stability of Soil Foundation under Water Retaining Structures by Fragility Curves (취약도 곡선에 의한 수리구조물 하부 지반의 확률론적 침투 안정성 평가)

  • Cho, Sung-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.37 no.10
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    • pp.41-54
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    • 2021
  • In this study, probabilistic steady seepage behavior of soil foundation beneath water retaining structures according to the location of cutoffs was studied. A Monte Carlo Simulation based on the random finite element method that considers the uncertainty and spatial variability of soil permeability was performed to evaluate the probabilistic seepage behavior. Fragility curves were developed by calculating the failure probability conditional on the occurrence of a given water level from the probability distribution obtained from Monte Carlo simulations. The fragility curve was prepared for the flow quantities such as flow rate through foundation soil, uplift force on the base of structure, and exit gradient in downstream to examine the reliability of the water retaining structure and the foundation soil. From the fragility curves, the effect of the location of cutoff wall on the reliability of water retaining structure and foundation soil according to the rise in water level was studied.

Derived I-D-F Curve in Seoul Using Bivariate Precipitation Frequency Analysis (이변량 강우 빈도해석을 이용한 서울지역 I-D-F 곡선 유도)

  • Kwon, Young-Moon;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.2B
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    • pp.155-162
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    • 2009
  • Univariate frequency analyses are widely used in practical hydrologic design. However, a storm event is usually characterized by amount, intensity, and duration of the storm. To fully understand these characteristics and to use them appropriately in hydrologic design, a multivariate statistical approach is necessary. This study applied a Gumbel mixed model to a bivariate storm frequency analysis using hourly rainfall data collected for 46 years at the Seoul rainfall gauge station in Korea. This study estimated bivariate return periods of a storm such as joint return periods and conditional return periods based on the estimation of joint cumulative distribution functions of storm characteristics. These information on statistical behaviors of a storm can be of great usefulness in the analysis and assessment of the risk associated with hydrologic design problems.

The Current State and Legal Issues of Online Crimes Related to Children and Adolescents

  • Hyoung-ryul Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.222-228
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    • 2023
  • There are two categories of online crimes related to children and adolescents: those committed by adolescents and those committed against children and adolescents. While recent trends in criminal law show consensus on strengthening punishment in cases of crimes against children and adolescents, there are mixed stances in cases of juvenile delinquency. One perspective emphasizes strict punishment, whereas the other emphasizes dispositions aligned with human rights. While various forms of online crime share the commonality in that the main part of the criminal act occurs online, they can be categorized into three types: those seeking financial gain, those driven by sexual motives, and those engaged in bullying. Among these, crimes driven by sexual motives are the most serious. Second-hand trading fraud and conditional (sexual) meeting fraud fall under the category of seeking financial gain and occur frequently. Crimes driven by sexual motives include obscenity via telecommunication, filming with discrete cameras, child and adolescent sexual exploitation material, fake video distribution, and blackmail/coercion using intimate images/videos ("sextortion"). These crimes lead to various legal issues such as whether to view vulgar acronyms or body cams that teenagers frequently use as simple subcultures or crimes, what criteria should be applied to judge whether a recorded material induces sexual desire or shame, and at what stage sexual grooming becomes punishable. For example, sniping posts, KakaoTalk prisons, and chat room explosions are tricky issues, as they may or may not be punished depending on the case. Particular caution should be exercised against the indiscriminate application of a strict punishment-oriented approach to the juvenile justice system, which is being discussed in relation to online sexual offenses. In the punishment case of online crime, juvenile offenders with a high potential for future improvement and reform must be treated with special consideration.

Price Volatility, Seasonality and Day-of-the Week Effect for Aquacultural Fishes in Korean Fishery Markets (수산물 시장에서의 양식 어류 가격변동성.계절성.요일효과에 관한 연구 - 노량진수산시장의 넙치와 조피볼락을 중심으로 -)

  • Ko, Bong-Hyun
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.49-70
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    • 2009
  • This study proviedes GARCH model(Bollerslev, 1986) to analyze the structural characteristics of price volatility in domestic aquacultural fish market of Korea. As a case study, flatfish and rock-fish are analyzed as major species with relatively high portion in an aspect of production volume among fish captured in Korea. For analyzing, this study uses daily market data (dating from Jan 1 2000 to June 30, 2008) published by the Noryangjin Fisheries Wholesale Market which is located in Seoul of Korea. This study performs normality test on trading volume and price volatility of flatfish and rock-fish as an advanced empirical approach. The normality test adopted is Jarque-Bera test statistic. As a result, first, a null hypothesis that "an empirical distribution follows normal distribution" was rejected in both fishes. The distribution of daily market data of them were not only biased toward positive(+) direction in terms of kurtosis and skewness, but also characterized by leptokurtic distribution with long right tail. Secondly, serial correlations were found in data on market trading volume and price volatility of two species during very long period. Thirdly, the results of unit root test and ARCH-LM test showed that all data of time series were very stationary and demonstrated effects of ARCH. These statistical characteristics can be explained as a reasonable ground for supporting the fitness of GARCH model in order to estimate conditional variances that reveal price volatility in empirical analysis. From empirical data analysis above, this study drew the following conclusions. First of all, from an empirical analysis on potential effects of seasonality and the day of week on price volatility of aquacultural fish, Monday effects were found in both species and Thursday and Friday effects were also found in flatfish. This indicates that Monday is effective in expanding price volatility of aquacultural fish market and also Monday has higher effects upon the price volatility of fish than other days of week have since it has more new information for weekend. Secondly, the empirical analysis led to a common conclusion that there was very high price volatility of flatfish and rock-fish. This points out that the persistency parameter($\lambda$), an index of possibility for current volatility to sustain similarly in the future, was higher than 0.8-equivalently nearly to 1-in both flatfish and rock-fish, which presents volatility clustering. Also, this study estimated and compared and model that hypothesized normal distributions in order to determine fitness of respective models. As a result, the fitness of GARCH(1, 1)-t model was better than model where the distribution of error term was hypothesized through-distribution due to characteristics of fat-tailed distribution, was also better than model, as described in the results of basic statistic analysis. In conclusion, this study has an important mean in that it was introduced firstly in Korea to investigate in price volatility of Korean aquacultural fishery products, although there was partially a limited of official statistic data. Therefore, it is expected that the results of this study will be useful as a reference material for making and assessing governmental policies. Also, it is looked forward that the results will be helpful to build a fishery business plan as and aspect of producer, and also to take timely measures to potential price fluctuations of fishery products in market. Hence, it is advisable that further studies related to such price volatility in fishery market will extend and evolve into a wider variety of articles and issues in near future.

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Efficient Correlation Channel Modeling for Transform Domain Wyner-Ziv Video Coding (Transform Domain Wyner-Ziv 비디오 부호를 위한 효과적인 상관 채널 모델링)

  • Oh, Ji-Eun;Jung, Chun-Sung;Kim, Dong-Yoon;Park, Hyun-Wook;Ha, Jeong-Seok
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.23-31
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    • 2010
  • The increasing demands on low-power, and low-complexity video encoder have been motivating extensive research activities on distributed video coding (DVC) in which the encoder compresses frames without utilizing inter-frame statistical correlation. In DVC encoder, contrary to the conventional video encoder, an error control code compresses the video frames by representing the frames in the form of syndrome bits. In the meantime, the DVC decoder generates side information which is modeled as a noisy version of the original video frames, and a decoder of the error-control code corrects the errors in the side information with the syndrome bits. The noisy observation, i.e., the side information can be understood as the output of a virtual channel corresponding to the orignal video frames, and the conditional probability of the virtual channel model is assumed to follow a Laplacian distribution. Thus, performance improvement of DVC systems depends on performances of the error-control code and the optimal reconstruction step in the DVC decoder. In turn, the performances of two constituent blocks are directly related to a better estimation of the parameter of the correlation channel. In this paper, we propose an algorithm to estimate the parameter of the correlation channel and also a low-complexity version of the proposed algorithm. In particular, the proposed algorithm minimizes squared-error of the Laplacian probability distribution and the empirical observations. Finally, we show that the conventional algorithm can be improved by adopting a confidential window. The proposed algorithm results in PSNR gain up to 1.8 dB and 1.1 dB on Mother and Foreman video sequences, respectively.

Research on the Leadership Types in Italian Restaurants (이태리 레스토랑 종사자들의 리더십 유형에 관한 연구)

  • Yim, Seoung-Bean;Kim, Pan-Jin
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.12
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 2012
  • Purpose - This study analyzes the effects of types of leadership on the employees of Italian restaurants, its efficacy, and organizational citizenship behavior, utilizing a causal assessment model. In this study, independent variables such as the type of leadership perceived in the manager or chef by an Italian restaurant's employees, and its efficacy were parameters, and the organizational citizenship behavior and organizational effectiveness were the variables representing the results in the hypothesis. The study aimed to draw implications by verifying the leadership via efficacy and the impact on organizational citizenship behavior of Italian restaurants. Research design, data, methodology - For the purpose of this analysis, specific questionnaire items were configured according to the theory and efficacy of the study. From a questionnaire used in organizational citizenship behavior comprising 22 questions, six were modified to suit the research purpose of this study. The configured questionnaire comprised 5 parts and 40 items. A Likert (Likert) 5-point scale was utilized to measure responses to the questionnaire items from the employees of an Italian restaurant in Seoul who participated in the survey. For data collection, 400 questionnaires were distributed, and 344 collected. Factor analysis and reliability verification were conducted using SPSS18.0 and AMOS18.0. A covariance structure analysis was conducted to test the research hypotheses. Results - Based on the results of the analyses, the summary and suggested implications of the research are as follows: The covariance structure analysis used to analyze the kind of effect transformational and transactional leadership styles in Italian restaurant employees had on self-efficacy, group-efficacy, and organizational citizenship behavior, indicated that among the characteristics of transformational leadership (such as, idealized influence, inspirational motivation, individual consideration, and intellectual stimulation), idealized influence and individual consideration had a positive influence on self-efficacy. Idealized influence, individual consideration, conditional reward, and management by exception also positively influenced self-efficacy and altruistic and conscientious behavior (organizational citizenship behavior). Conclusions - Results suggest that with regard to self-efficacy and group efficacy, managers in different departments and chefs should provide team members with a vision for the future, increase their confidence in their abilities, and build their trust in the organization. By evaluating employee performance and experiences, management can demonstrate leadership and encourage organizational citizenship behavior through enjoyable, voluntary participation. Transformational and transactional leadership is effective in group processes that include social-exchange relationships, self-efficacy and group efficacy, and organizational citizenship behavior. However, as this research study utilizes only self-reported data, it has several limitations, such as a vulnerability of errors caused by the various experiment types. A significant limitation of this study is the lack of potential for the duplication of results. The covariance structure analysis, however, provides complementation to limit the impact of errors from self-reporting studies. A future study can extend this research by utilizing different data collection methods.

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Korean High School Students' Understanding of the Concept of Correlation (우리나라 고등학생들의 상관관계 이해도 조사)

  • No, A Ra;Yoo, Yun Joo
    • Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.467-490
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    • 2013
  • Correlation is a basic statistical concept which is necessary for understanding the relationship between two variables when they change values. In the middle school curriculum of Korea, only informal definition of correlation is taught with two-way data representations such as scatter plots and contingency tables. In this study, we investigated Korean high school students' understanding of correlation using a test consisting of 35 items about interpretation of scatter plot, contingency table, and text in realistic situation. 216 students from a high school in Seoul took the test for 20 minutes. From the results, we could observe the following: First, students did not have right criteria for determining the strength of correlation presented in scatter plots. Most of students could determine if there is correlation/no correlation and if the correlation is positive/negative by seeing the data presented in scatter plots. However, they did not judge by the closeness to the regression line but rather judged by the closeness between data points. Second, when statements about comparing the strength of correlation in the context of real life situation were given in text, the students had difficulty in understanding the distribution-related characteristic of the bi-variate data. Students had difficulty in figuring out the local distribution characteristic of data, which cannot be guessed merely based on the expression 'The correlation is strong' without statistical knowledge of correlation. Third, a large number of students could not judge the association between two variabels using conditional proportions when qualitative data are given in 2-by-2 tables. They made judgement by the absolute cell count and when the marginal sum of two categories are different for explanatory variable they thought the association could not be determined. From these results, we concluded that educational measures are required in order to remove such misconceptions and to improve understanding of correlation. Considering that the current mathematics curriculum does not cover the concept of correlation, we need to improve the curriculum as well.

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Spatial-Temporal Interpolation of Rainfall Using Rain Gauge and Radar (강우계와 레이더를 이용한 강우의 시공간적인 활용)

  • Hong, Seung-Jin;Kim, Byung-Sik;Hahm, Chang-Hahk
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.37-48
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this paper is to evaluate how the rainfall field effect on a runoff simulation using grid radar rainfall data and ground gauge rainfall. The Gwangdeoksan radar and ground-gauge rainfall data were used to estimate a spatial rainfall field, and a hydrologic model was used to evaluate whether the rainfall fields created by each method reproduced a realistically valid spatial and temporal distribution. Pilot basin in this paper was the Naerin stream located in Inje-gun, Gangwondo, 250m grid scale digital elevation data, land cover maps, and soil maps were used to estimate geological parameters for the hydrologic model. For the rainfall input data, quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE), adjusted radar rainfall, and gauge rainfall was used, and then compared with the observed runoff by inputting it into a $Vflo^{TM}$ model. As a result of the simulation, the quantitative precipitation estimation and the ground rainfall were underestimated when compared to the observed runoff, while the adjusted radar rainfall showed a similar runoff simulation with the actual observed runoff. From these results, we suggested that when weather radars and ground rainfall data are combined, they have a greater hydrological usability as input data for a hydrological model than when just radar rainfall or ground rainfall is used separately.

A Study on the protection of personal information using a Virtual IDs in an anonymous bulletin board (익명 게시판 환경에서 가상 아이디를 이용한 개인정보보호에 관한 연구)

  • Min, So-Yeon;Jang, Seung-Jae
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.9
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    • pp.4214-4223
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    • 2012
  • The argument related to the use of real and anonymous names on the Internet bulletin board has recently become a main issue. When using real names, it is possible to violate free discussion and privacy. Also, when using anonymous names, it is possible to have the reverse function of the Internet in regard to the use of malicious replies or the distribution of false ideas. Therefore, this paper has made it possible to prevent the spread of the user's personal information and execute the single log-in process by using the XML-token method which is one of the SSO technologies. Also, by issuing virtual IDs and forming the path when establishing tokens, the anonymous bulletin board which provides anonymity with a conditional tracing process has been suggested. After analyzing the performance of visitor numbers at authentication time, the anonymous bulletin board based on the group signature method showed the average response rate of 0.72 seconds, 0.18 seconds, which was suggested scheme. In the authentication time 4-5 times faster response speed, respectively. Also, since the suggested system does not have to provide a single authentication process or make the user provide his or her signature, the level of user's convenience seems to be much higher. Such a result shows that the system suggested on the anonymous bulletin board has a more appropriate level of user's convenience.