• Title/Summary/Keyword: climate change sensitivity

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Vulnerability Assessment and Analysis of Gangwon Provincial Forest Sector in Response to Climate Change (기후변화 대비 강원 지역 산림부문 현황 분석 및 취약성 평가)

  • Chae, Hee-Mun;Lee, Hyun-Ju;Um, Gi-Jeung
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.106-117
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    • 2012
  • In an effort to analyze the impact of climate change, Gangwon provincial forest was divided into three sectors; forest ecology, forest disaster, and forest productivity and analysis of their current status from 2000 to 2009 and vulnerability assessment by climate change has been carried in this study. In case of vulnerability assessment, except for the forest ecology, forest disaster (forest fires and forest pests) and forest productivity sectors were analyzed in current status, the year of 2020, and 2050. It turned out that vulnerability of forest fires in the field of disaster would become worse and forest pests also would make more impact even though there is some variation in different areas. In case of the vulnerability of forest productivity there would be not a big difference in the future compared with current vulnerability. Systematic research on the sensitivity index used for vulnerability assessment is necessary since vulnerability assessment result greatly depends on the use of climate exposure index and adaptive capacity index.

Vulnerability Assessment of Human Health Sector due to Climate Change: Focus on Ozone (기후변화에 따른 보건 분야의 취약성 평가: O3을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jae-Bum;Lee, Hyun-Ju;Moon, Kyung-Jung;Hong, Sung-Chul;Kim, Deok-Rae;Song, Chang-Keun;Hong, You-Deog
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.22-38
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    • 2012
  • Adaptation of climate change is necessary to avoid unexpected impacts of climate change caused by human activities. Vulnerability refers to the degree to which system cannot cope with impacts of climate change, encompassing physical, social and economic aspects. Therefore the quantification of climate change impacts and its vulnerability is needed to identify vulnerable regions and to setup the proper strategies for adaptation. In this study, climate change vulnerability is defined as a function of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Also, we identified regions vulnerable to ozone due to climate change in Korea using developed proxy variables of vulnerability of regional level. 18 proxy variables are selected through delphi survey to assess vulnerability over human health sector for ozone concentration change due to climate change. Also, we estimate the weighting score of proxy variables from delphi survey. The results showed that the local regions with higher vulnerability index in the sector of human health are Seoul and Daegu, whereas regions with lower one are Jeollanam-do, Gyeonggi-do, Gwangju, Busan, Daejeon, and Gangwon-do. The regions of high level vulnerability are mainly caused by their high ozone exposure. We also assessed future vulnerability according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1FI, A1T, A1B, B2, and B1 scenarios in 2020s, 2050s and 2100s. The results showed that vulnerability increased in all scenarios due to increased ozone concentrations. Especially vulnerability index is increased by approximately 2 times in A1FI scenarios in the 2020s. This study could support regionally adjusted adaptation polices and the quantitative background of policy priority as providing the information on the regional vulnerability of ozone due to climate change in Korea.

Development and Application of a Methodologyfor Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment-Sea Level Rise Impact ona Coastal City (기후변화 취약성 평가 방법론의 개발 및 적용 해수면 상승을 중심으로)

  • Yoo, Ga-Young;Park, Sung-Woo;Chung, Dong-Ki;Kang, Ho-Jeong;Hwang, Jin-Hwan
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.185-205
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    • 2010
  • Climate change vulnerability assessment based on local conditions is a prerequisite for establishment of climate change adaptation policies. While some studies have developed a methodology for vulnerability assessment at the national level using statistical data, few attempts, whether domestic or overseas, have been made to develop methods for local vulnerability assessments that are easily applicable to a single city. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to develop a conceptual framework for climate change vulnerability, and then develop a general methodology for assessment at the regional level applied to a single coastal city, Mokpo, in Jeolla province, Korea. We followed the conceptual framework of climate change vulnerability proposed by the IPCC (1996) which consists of "climate exposure," "systemic sensitivity," and "systemic adaptive capacity." "Climate exposure" was designated as sea level rises of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 meter(s), allowing for a simple scenario for sea level rises. Should more complex forecasts of sea level rises be required later, the methodology developed herein can be easily scaled and transferred to other projects. Mokpo was chosen as a seaside city on the southwest coast of Korea, where all cities have experienced rising sea levels. Mokpo has experienced the largest sea level increases of all, and is a region where abnormal high tide events have become a significant threat; especially subsequent to the construction of an estuary dam and breakwaters. Sensitivity to sea level rises was measured by the percentage of flooded area for each administrative region within Mokpo evaluated via simulations using GIS techniques. Population density, particularly that of senior citizens, was also factored in. Adaptive capacity was considered from both the "hardware" and "software" aspects. "Hardware" adaptive capacity was incorporated by considering the presence (or lack thereof) of breakwaters and seawalls, as well as their height. "Software" adaptive capacity was measured using a survey method. The survey questionnaire included economic status, awareness of climate change impact and adaptation, governance, and policy, and was distributed to 75 governmental officials working for Mokpo. Vulnerability to sea level rises was assessed by subtracting adaptive capacity from the sensitivity index. Application of the methodology to Mokpo indicated vulnerability was high for seven out of 20 administrative districts. The results of our methodology provides significant policy implications for the development of climate change adaptation policy as follows: 1) regions with high priority for climate change adaptation measures can be selected through a correlation diagram between vulnerabilities and records of previous flood damage, and 2) after review of existing short, mid, and long-term plans or projects in high priority areas, appropriate adaptation measures can be taken as per this study. Future studies should focus on expanding analysis of climate change exposure from sea level rises to other adverse climate related events, including heat waves, torrential rain, and drought etc.

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Sensitivity Analysis of Climate Factors on Runoff and Soil Losses in Daecheong Reservoir Watershed using SWAT (SWAT 모형을 이용한 대청댐 유역의 기후인자에 따른 유출 및 유사량 민감도 평가)

  • Ye, Lyeong;Chung, Se-Woong;Lee, Heung-Soo;Yoon, Sung-Wan;Jeong, Hee-Young
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.7-17
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    • 2009
  • Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impact of potential future climate change on the water cycle and soil loss of the Daecheong reservoir watershed. A sensitivity analysis using influence coefficient method was conducted for two selected hydrological input parameters and three selected sediment input parameters to identify the most to the least sensitive parameters. A further detailed sensitivity analysis was performed for the parameters: Manning coefficient for channel (Cn), evaporation (ESCO), and sediment concentration in lateral (LAT_SED), support practice factor (USLA_P). Calibration and verification of SWAT were performed on monthly basis for 1993~2006 and 1977~1991, respectively. The model efficiency index (EI) and coefficient of determination ($R^2$) computed for the monthly comparisons of runoffs were 0.78 and 0.76 for the calibration period, and 0.58 and 0.65 for the verification period. The results showed that the hydrological cycle in the watershed is very sensitive to climate factors. A doubling of atmospheric $CO_2$ concentrations was predicted to result in an average annual flow increase of 27.9% and annual sediment yield increase of 23.3%. Essentially linear impacts were predicted between two precipitation change scenarios of -20, and 20%, which resulted in average annual flow and sediment yield changes at Okcheon of -53.8%, 63.0% and -55.3%, 65.8%, respectively. An average annual flow increase of 46.3% and annual sediment yield increase of 36.4% was estimated for a constant humidity increase 5%. An average annual flow decrease of 9.6% and annual sediment yield increase of 216.4% was estimated for a constant temperature increase $4^{\circ}C$.

The Potential Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow in Rivers Basin of Korea Using Rainfall Elasticity

  • Kim, Byung Sik;Hong, Seung Jin;Lee, Hyun Dong
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.9-20
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, the rainfall elasticity of streamflow was estimated to quantify the effects of climate change on 5 river basins. Rainfall elasticity denotes the sensitivity of annual streamflow for the variations of potential annual rainfall. This is a simple, useful method that evaluates how the balance of a water cycle on river basins changes due to long-term climate change and offers information to manage water resources and environment systems. The elasticity method was first used by Schaake in 1990 and is commonly used in the United States and Australia. A semi-distributed hydrological model (SLURP, semi-distributed land use-based runoff processes) was used to simulate the variations of area streamflow, and potential evapotranspiration. A nonparametric method was then used to estimate the rainfall elasticity on five river basins of Korea. In addition, the A2 (SRES IPCC AR4, Special Report on Emission Scenarios IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) climate change scenario and stochastic downscaling technique were used to create a high-resolution weather change scenario in river basins, and the effects of climate change on the rainfall elasticity of each basin were then analyzed.

Vulnerability Assessment of Rice Production by Main Disease and Pest of Rice Plant to Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 주요 벼 병해충에 의한 벼 생산의 취약성평가)

  • Kim, Myung-Hyun;Bang, Hea-Son;Na, Young-Eun;Kim, Miran;Oh, Young-Ju;Kang, Kee-Kyung;Cho, Kwang-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.147-157
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    • 2013
  • Rice is a main crop and rice field is the most important farmland in Korea. This study was conducted to propose the methodology assessing impact and vulnerability on rice production by climate change at the regional and national level in Korea. We evaluated a vulnerability of rice paddy according to the outbreak of a main disease and pest of a rice plant. As results, Jeju-do, Gyeongsangnam-do, and Jeollanam-do were more vulnerable area than others. In contrast, the southern central region including Gyeonggi-do was less vulnerable than others. The vulnerable index was significantly higher in 2050s (0.5589) than in present (0.3500). This result showed that the vulnerable to the disease and pest enlarge in the future. The adaptive capacity highly contributed to the vulnerability assessment index. The daily maximum temperature of June and the daily average temperature from May to August also contributed the climate exposure index. The area of occurring sheath blight, rice leaf blast and striped rice borer was related to the system sensitivity index. The ability of water supply (readjustment area of arable land per paddy field area) and rice production technique (rice yield per hectare) were the highly contributed variables to the adaption capacity index.

Climate Elasticity of Korean Streamflows (기후변동에 대한 한국 하천유량의 탄력성)

  • Jung, Il-Won;Chang, Hee-Jun;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.10
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    • pp.851-864
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    • 2010
  • We investigated the sensitivity of Korean streamflows to climate variation. Historical dam inflows and climate data for eight multi-purpose dam sites were collected and examined to determine key factors affecting streamflow change. The results show that annual streamflow primarily responds to change in precipitation rather than temperature. However, the combination of less precipitation and high temperature induces a more serious decrease in streamflow than does similar precipitation and with low temperature. This result indicates that Korean water resources could be more vulnerable to drought due to increasing temperature caused by global warming. To estimate spatial differences in climate sensitivity, we also calculated climate elasticity for 109 mid-size watersheds using streamflow simulated by the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). Climate elasticity ranges over 1.5~1.9, indicating that a +20% increase in annual precipitation leads to a +30~+38% increase in annual streamflow.

Sensitivity assessment for climate change on Daecheong Dam Basin stream flow (기후변화에 따른 대청댐 상류유역의 유출 민감도 분석)

  • Seo, Hyeong-Deok;Jeong, Sang-Man;Han, Kyu-Ha;Shin, Kwang-Seob
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.02a
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    • pp.695-698
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    • 2008
  • The SWAT model was used to assess the impacts of potential future climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Geum River Basin(UGRB). Calibration and validation of SWAT were performed on a monthly basis for 1982-1995 and 1996-2005, respectively. The impact of ten 15-year(1988-2002) scenarios were then analyzed relative to a scenario baseline. Among them, scenario 1-6 were set to show the sensitivity response. A doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration was predicted to result in an maximum monthly flow increase of 11 percent. Non-linear impacts were predicted among precipitation change scenarios of -42, -17, 17, and 42 percent, which resulted in average annual flow changes in UGRB of -55, -24, 26, and 65 percent.

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Analysis of Climate Characteristics Observed over the Korean Peninsula for the Estimation of Climate Change Vulnerability Index (기후변화 취약성 지수 산출을 위한 한반도 관측 기후 특성 분석)

  • Nam, Ki-Pyo;Kang, Jeong-Eon;Kim, Cheol-Hee
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.891-905
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    • 2011
  • Climate vulnerability index is usually defined as a function of the climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, which requires adequate selection of proxy variables of each variable. We selected and used 9 proxy variables related to climate exposure in the literature, and diagnosed the adequacy of them for application in Korean peninsula. The selected proxy variables are: four variables from temperature, three from precipitation, one from wind speed, and one from relative humidity. We collected climate data over both previous year (1981~2010) and future climate scenario (A1B scenario of IPCC SERES) for 2020, 2050, and 2100. We introduced the spatial and temporal diagnostic statistical parameters, and evaluated both spatial and time variabilities in the relative scale. Of 9 proxy variables, effective humidity indicated the most sensitive to climate change temporally with the biggest spatial variability, implying a good proxy variable in diagnostics of climate change vulnerability in Korea. The second most sensitive variable is the frequency of strong wind speed with a decreasing trend, suggesting that it should be used carefully or may not be of broad utility as a proxy variable in Korea. The A1B scenario of future climate in 2020, 2050 and 2100 matches well with the extension of linear trend of observed variables during 1981~2010, indicating that, except for strong wind speed, the selected proxy variables can be effectively used in calculating the vulnerability index for both past and future climate over Korea. Other local variabilities for the past and future climate in association with climate exposure variables are also discussed here.