• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.26 no.7
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• pp.127-132
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• 2021

This paper applies a machine learning model to forecasting freight rates in dry bulk and tanker markets with wavelet decomposition and empirical mode decomposition because they can refect both information scattered in the time and frequency domain. The decomposition with wavelet is outperformed for the dry bulk market, and EMD is the more proper model in the tanker market. This result provides market players with a practical short-term forecasting method. This study contributes to expanding a variety of predictive methodologies for one of the highly volatile markets. Furthermore, the proposed model is expected to improve the quality of decision-making in spot freight trading, which is the most frequent transaction in the shipping industry.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.27-43
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• 2023

The maritime industry is playing an increasingly vital part in global economic expansion. Specifically, the Baltic Dry Index is highly correlated with global commodity prices. Hence, the importance of BDI prediction research increases. But, since the global situation has become more volatile, it has become methodologically more difficult to predict the BDI accurately. This paper proposes an integrated machine-learning strategy for accurately forecasting BDI trends. This study combines the benefits of a convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory neural network (LSTM) for research on prediction. We collected daily BDI data for over 27 years for model fitting. The research findings indicate that CNN successfully extracts BDI data features. On this basis, LSTM predicts BDI accurately. Model R2 attains 94.7 percent. Our research offers a novel, machine-learning-integrated approach to the field of shipping economic indicators research. In addition, this study provides a foundation for risk management decision-making in the fields of shipping institutions and financial investment.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.270-287
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• 2015

According to the increase of the operating cost and material cost of a ship due to the change of international oil price, a demand for the lightening of the ship weight is being made from various parties such as shipping companies, ship owners, and shipyards. To satisfy such demand, many studies for a light ship are being made. As one of them, an optimal design method of an existing hull structure, that is, a method for lightening the ship weight based on the optimization technique was proposed in this study. For this, we selected a hatch cover of a bulk carrier as an optimization target and formulated an optimization problem in order to determine optimal principal dimensions of the hatch cover for lightening the bulk carrier. Some dimensions representing the shape of the hatch cover were selected as design variables and some design considerations related to the maximum stress, maximum deflection, and geometry of the hatch cover were selected as constraints. In addition, the minimization of the weight of the hatch cover was selected as an objective function. To solve this optimization problem, we developed an optimization program based on the Sequential Quadratic Programming (SQP) using C++ programming language. To evaluate the applicability of the developed program, it was applied to a problem for finding optimal principal dimensions of the hatch cover of a deadweight 180,000 ton bulk carrier. The result shows that the developed program can decrease the hatch cover's weight by about 8.5%. Thus, this study will be able to contribute to make energy saving and environment-friendly ship in shipyard.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.33 no.8
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• pp.563-572
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• 2009

The steel industry, as the national representative strategic industry of our country, has played the motive power for the economic growth of Korea in 1970s as the positive support of the government and the management endeavor of the private were harmonized. However, in case of our country, we have mostly relied on import of the raw materials for the steel industry, and as the weight of the imported raw materials is heavy, the steel industry is the industry whose transport burden is big as it is called 'transport industry'. So, the transport rationalization will be the important task of the steel industry. This study has analyzed the economic efficiency per the transport route (container ship vs bulk ship) of the sea transport related to import/export of the steel scrap on the level acquiring the stable supply of the steel scrap. For this, this study firstly researched the status of domestic/foreign steel industry. And analyzed the world crude steel production volume, steel scrap consumption volume and world steel scrap trading structure. Also, in order to compare the transport logistics expenses between two transport devices, namely, container ship and bulk ship, this study calculated the logistics expenses per ton by using the traffic hours and traffic expenses items as the imported/exported scrap freights of 'D' company.

• Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.665-676
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• 2017

Over the past several years, sea trade have increased traffic by ships which highlighted a problem of unwanted species invading the surrounding seas through ship's ballast water discharge. Maritime trade volume has continuously increased worldwide and the problem still exists. The respective countries are spending billions of dollars in an effort to clean up the contamination and prevent pollution. As part of an effort to solve marine environmental problem, BWM(Ballast Water Management) convention was adopted at a diplomatic conference on Feb. 13 2004. In order to comply harmoniously this convention by each country. This convention will be effective after 12 months from the date which 30 countries ratified accounting for more than 35% of the world merchant shipping volume. On Sep. 8 2016, Finland ratified this convention and effective condition was satisfied as 52 states and world merchant vessel fleet 35.1441%. Thus, after Sep. 8 2017, all existing vessels shall be equipped with BWTS(Ballast Water Treatment System) in accordance with D-2 Regulation, which physically handles ballast water from ballast water exchange system(D-1 Regulation). In this study, we analyzed in detail the optimal design method using the Risk Analysis and Evaluation technique which is mainly used in the manufacturing factory or the risky work site comparing with the traditional design concept method applying various criteria. The Risk Assessment Method is a series of processes for finding the Risk Factors in the design process, analyzing a probility of the accident and size of the accident and then quantifying the Risk Incidence and finally taking measures. In this study, this method was carried out for Electrolysis treatment type on DWT 180K Bulk Carrier using "HAZOP Study" method among various methods. In the Electrolysis type, 63 hazardous elements were identified.

• Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.1602-1613
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• 2016

Since Ballast Water Management Convention has been adopted, Ballast Water Management Convention is not effected yet. This convention will only enter into force 12 months after its ratification by 30 states, collectively representing 35% of world merchant shipping tonnnage. Morocco, Indonesia and Ghana have ratified this convention during last 29th IMO Assembly meeting which was held in November 2015. In 2016, Belgium, Fiji, Saint Lucia and Peru have become the latest countries to ratify the convention. As of now, 51 states and 34.87% combined merchant fleets are being calculated. BWM convention will be applied to not only new ships but also, existing ships after it is effected. Thus, existing vessel will be retrofitted a Ballast Water Treatment System according to D-2 Requirement until first IOPP nenewal survey after date of entry into force of the convention. Currently, about 65 BWTSs certified by Administration will be reported to IMO, even type of BWTSs is very various. Thus, a risk of each BWTS can be existed, and this existed risk can be also effected to ship's crew safety and protection of ship's own property. Therefore, we have evaluated a risk assessment for an existing vessel retrofitting an ultra violet type Ballast Water Treatment System which is mostly developed in the world. And we described the procedure of selecting a sample vessel, consequently, bulk carrier is selected because this vessel kind is mostly charged in the world. Especially, DWT 175K size is selected. Risk Assessment is using a HAZID and HAZOP method, evaluation method is referred to IMO Document "Considerated test of the Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) for use in the IMO rule-marking process(MSC/Circ.1203-MEPC/Circ.392)". The Risk Assessment Section is decided to 3 Nodes, Consequently, total risks have evaluated 51 items.

• Horticultural Science & Technology
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.186-193
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• 2013

Potential of consumer unit packaging was investigated for quality maintenance during export simulation in king oyster mushrooms (Pleurotus eryngii). Mushrooms were harvested in late May, precooled to $4^{\circ}C$ within 6 hours, and then packaged for shipping in two ways: 2 kg bulk packaging in a polyethylene (PE) bag or three types of unit packaging methods such as 400 g in polypropylene film bag (PPB), 200 g on styrofoam tray + PE shrinkage film wrapping (STW), and 200 g in polyethylene terephthalate (PET) containers (PETC). For local distribution of bulk-packaged commodity, mushrooms were sorted again and packaged into 3 consumer units in the same way as for the initial shipping packages. Simulation of refrigerated container shipping was performed in a walk-in type pilot storage at $0.5^{\circ}C$ for 5 weeks, while local marketing simulation was carried out on the shelf at $7^{\circ}C$ for 7 days. During the shipment simulation, creation of modified atmosphere (MA) was substantial in 2 kg bulk packages with low $O_2$ below 2% and high $CO_2$ over 15% whereas, in PPB and PETC unit packages, relatively higher $O_2$ concentrations were observed. On the shelf at $7^{\circ}C$, $CO_2$ concentrations rapidly increased in PPB and PETC packages despite the short marketing period. Overall marketability evaluated by off-flavor, browning, and texture rating was maintained at excellent level when 2 kg bulk packaging in PE or unit packaging in PPB and PETC were used for shipment. In contrast, establishment of MA was very slight in STW packages during shipment and local distribution resulting in poor quality after export simulation. The results suggested that shipment using adequate consumer unit packaging is more practical and economically beneficial than using bulk packaging in the export program consisting of 5-week shipment and 7-day local distribution.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 1996.04a
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• pp.59-76
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• 1996

Vessels in the world merchant fleet generally operate in either liner or bulk trade. The supply and the demand trend of general cargo ship are both on the ebb however those trend of tankers and containers are ins light ascension. Oil tankers are so far the largest single vessel type in the world fleet and the tanker market is often cited as a texbook example of perfect competition. Some shipping statistics in recent years show that there has been a radical fluctuation in spot charter rate under easy charter's market. This implies that the proper scheduling of tankers under spot market fluctuation has the great potential of improving the owner's profit and economic performance of shipping. This paper aims at developing the TS-DSS(Decision Support System for Tanker Scheduling) in the context of the importance of scheduling decisions. TS-DSS is defined as a DSS based on the optimization models for tanker scheduling. The system has been developed through the life cycle of systems analysis design and implementation to be user-friendly system. The performance of the system has been tested and examined by using the data edited under several tanker scheduling has been tested and examined by using the data edited under several tanker scheduling scenarios and thereby the effectiveness of TS-DSS is validated satisfactorily. The authors conclude the paper with the comments of the need of appropriate support environment such as data-based DSS and network system for successful implementatio of the TS-DSS.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.27-46
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• 1996

Vessles in the world merchant fleet generally operate in either liner or bulk trade. The supply and the demand trend of general cargo ship are both on the ebb, however, those trend of tankers and containers are in slight ascension. Oil tankers are so far the largest single vessel type in the world fleet and the tanker market is often cited as a textbook example of perfect competition. Some shipping statistics in recent years show that there has been a radical fluctuation in spot charter rate under easy charterer's market. This implys that the proper scheduling of tankers under spot market fluctuation has the great potential of improving the owner's profit and economic performance of shipping. This paper aims at developing the TS-DSS(Decision Support System for Tanker Scheduling) in the context of the importance of scheduling decisions. The TS-DSS is defined as the DSS based on the optimization models for tanker scheduling. The system has been developed through the life cycle of systems analysis, design, and implementation to be user-friendly system. The performance of the system has been tested and examined by using the data edited under several tanker scheduling scenarios and thereby the effectiveness of TS-DSS is validated satifactorily. The authors conclude the paper with the comments on the need of appropriate support environment such as data-based DSS and network system for succesful implementation of the TS-DSS.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.77-92
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• 2014

The focus of this study is to analyse dynamic relationship among BDI(Baltic Dry-bulk Index, hereafter BDI), forex market and industrial production using monthly data from 2003-2013. Specifically, we have focused on the investigations how monetary and real variable affect shipping industry during recession period. To compare performance between general VAR and Bayesian VAR we first examine DAG(Directed Acyclic Graph) to clarify causality among the variables and then employ MSFE(mean squared forecast error). The overall estimated results from impulse-response analysis imply that BDI has been strongly affected by other shock, such as forex market and industrial production in Bayesian VAR. In particular, Bayesian VAR show better performance than general VAR in forecasting.