• 제목/요약/키워드: background estimate

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Estimation of Supply and Demand for Cardiologists in Korea

  • Mira Kim;Kyunghee Chae;Ju Mee Wang;Arum Choi;Jang-Whan Bae;Keon-Woong Moon;Sukil Kim
    • Korean Circulation Journal
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    • 제54권1호
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2024
  • Background and Objectives: The objective of this study was to estimate the supply and demand for cardiologists in Korea and provide evidence for healthcare policy to ensure a stable and adequate workforce for optimal cardiovascular disease management. Methods: Past trends of inflow and outflow of cardiologists were used to make crude projections, which were then adjusted based on demands of services to obtain final projections. Inflow of cardiologists was estimated using second-order polynomial regression and demand for cardiology care was estimated using linear regression. Results: There were 1,139 active cardiologists who were under the age of 65 in clinical practice in Korea. The estimated number of cardiologists from 2022 to 2040 showed that the number of cardiologists would peak at 1,344 in 2032 and gradually decrease thereafter. We also estimated an increase of 947,811 cases of heart-related procedures annually from 2023 to 2032. The number of heart-related procedures per cardiologist would increase 1.4 times from 12,964 in 2023 to 17,862 in 2032. The estimated number of emergency patients per cardiologist under 50 years old would almost double from 544 in 2022 to 987 in 2032. Conclusions: We expect significant shortage of cardiologists in Korea within the next 10 years. The number of emergency patients per cardiologist will increase by nearly 50%, leading to high individual workload for cardiologists. To prevent this imbalance between supply and demand, an organized and collective approach by the specialty of cardiology is imperative to produce a balanced workforce.

Association Between Organizational Downsizing and Depressive Symptoms Among Korean Workers: A Cross-sectional Analysis

  • Youngsun Park;Juyeon Oh;Heejoo Park;Jian Lee;Byungyoon Yun;Jin-Ha Yoon
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • 제15권3호
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    • pp.352-359
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    • 2024
  • Background: Organizational downsizing may be significantly linked to depressive symptoms, yet research on this impact in Asian contexts is limited. This study investigates the association between downsizing during the COVID-19 pandemic and depressive symptoms across diverse employment statuses. Methods: This study used the data from 6th Korean Working Conditions Survey. Depressive symptoms were measured using WHO-5 well-being index with a cut-off of 50. Downsizing was defined as decrease in the number of employees during last three years. Multivariable logistic regression adjusted for socio-demographic and occupational factors was used to estimate the adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for depressive symptoms associated with downsizing, including subgroup analyses. Results: Among 26,247 Korean workers (mean age: 43.4, men: 47.5%), the prevalence of depressive symptoms was 29.5% (n = 7,751), and the proportion of downsizing was 15.2% (n = 3,978). The prevalence of depressive symptoms was significantly higher among the downsizing group (36.7%, n = 1,460) than among the no-downsizing group (28.3%, n = 6,291). The result of logistic regression revealed a significant association between downsizing and depressive symptoms (adjusted OR [95% CI]: 1.39 [1.29-1.50]), particularly pronounced among high socioeconomic status workers. Conclusion: This study underscores the significant association between depressive symptoms and organizational downsizing, especially high vulnerability of socioeconomically advantaged and stable workers. These findings highlight the necessity for targeted mental health support and further longitudinal research to clarify the relationship between employment changes and mental health within the Korean workforce.

토양수분함량 예측 및 계획관개 모의 모형 개발에 관한 연구(I) (A Study on the Development of a Simulation Model for Predicting Soil Moisture Content and Scheduling Irrigation)

  • 김철회;고재군
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제19권1호
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    • pp.4279-4295
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    • 1977
  • Two types of model were established in order to product the soil moisture content by which information on irrigation could be obtained. Model-I was to represent the soil moisture depletion and was established based on the concept of water balance in a given soil profile. Model-II was a mathematical model derived from the analysis of soil moisture variation curves which were drawn from the observed data. In establishing the Model-I, the method and procedure to estimate parameters for the determination of the variables such as evapotranspirations, effective rainfalls, and drainage amounts were discussed. Empirical equations representing soil moisture variation curves were derived from the observed data as the Model-II. The procedure for forecasting timing and amounts of irrigation under the given soil moisture content was discussed. The established models were checked by comparing the observed data with those predicted by the model. Obtained results are summarized as follows: 1. As a water balance model of a given soil profile, the soil moisture depletion D, could be represented as the equation(2). 2. Among the various empirical formulae for potential evapotranspiration (Etp), Penman's formula was best fit to the data observed with the evaporation pans and tanks in Suweon area. High degree of positive correlation between Penman's predicted data and observed data with a large evaporation pan was confirmed. and the regression enquation was Y=0.7436X+17.2918, where Y represents evaporation rate from large evaporation pan, in mm/10days, and X represents potential evapotranspiration rate estimated by use of Penman's formula. 3. Evapotranspiration, Et, could be estimated from the potential evapotranspiration, Etp, by introducing the consumptive use coefficient, Kc, which was repre sensed by the following relationship: Kc=Kco$.$Ka+Ks‥‥‥(Eq. 6) where Kco : crop coefficient Ka : coefficient depending on the soil moisture content Ks : correction coefficient a. Crop coefficient. Kco. Crop coefficients of barley, bean, and wheat for each growth stage were found to be dependent on the crop. b. Coefficient depending on the soil moisture content, Ka. The values of Ka for clay loam, sandy loam, and loamy sand revealed a similar tendency to those of Pierce type. c. Correction coefficent, Ks. Following relationships were established to estimate Ks values: Ks=Kc-Kco$.$Ka, where Ks=0 if Kc,=Kco$.$K0$\geq$1.0, otherwise Ks=1-Kco$.$Ka 4. Effective rainfall, Re, was estimated by using following relationships : Re=D, if R-D$\geq$0, otherwise, Re=R 5. The difference between rainfall, R, and the soil moisture depletion D, was taken as drainage amount, Wd. {{{{D= SUM from { {i }=1} to n (Et-Re-I+Wd)}}}} if Wd=0, otherwise, {{{{D= SUM from { {i }=tf} to n (Et-Re-I+Wd)}}}} where tf=2∼3 days. 6. The curves and their corresponding empirical equations for the variation of soil moisture depending on the soil types, soil depths are shown on Fig. 8 (a,b.c,d). The general mathematical model on soil moisture variation depending on seasons, weather, and soil types were as follow: {{{{SMC= SUM ( { C}_{i }Exp( { - lambda }_{i } { t}_{i } )+ { Re}_{i } - { Excess}_{i } )}}}} where SMC : soil moisture content C : constant depending on an initial soil moisture content $\lambda$ : constant depending on season t : time Re : effective rainfall Excess : drainage and excess soil moisture other than drainage. The values of $\lambda$ are shown on Table 1. 7. The timing and amount of irrigation could be predicted by the equation (9-a) and (9-b,c), respectively. 8. Under the given conditions, the model for scheduling irrigation was completed. Fig. 9 show computer flow charts of the model. a. To estimate a potential evapotranspiration, Penman's equation was used if a complete observed meteorological data were available, and Jensen-Haise's equation was used if a forecasted meteorological data were available, However none of the observed or forecasted data were available, the equation (15) was used. b. As an input time data, a crop carlender was used, which was made based on the time when the growth stage of the crop shows it's maximum effective leaf coverage. 9. For the purpose of validation of the models, observed data of soil moiture content under various conditions from May, 1975 to July, 1975 were compared to the data predicted by Model-I and Model-II. Model-I shows the relative error of 4.6 to 14.3 percent which is an acceptable range of error in view of engineering purpose. Model-II shows 3 to 16.7 percent of relative error which is a little larger than the one from the Model-I. 10. Comparing two models, the followings are concluded: Model-I established on the theoretical background can predict with a satisfiable reliability far practical use provided that forecasted meteorological data are available. On the other hand, Model-II was superior to Model-I in it's simplicity, but it needs long period and wide scope of observed data to predict acceptable soil moisture content. Further studies are needed on the Model-II to make it acceptable in practical use.

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원전 불균일 방사선장하에서 유효선량 평가를 위한 복수선량계 알고리즘 적용방안 연구 (A Study on the Application of Two-dosimeter Algorithm to Estimate the Effective Dose in an Inhomogeneous Radiation Field at Korean Nuclear Power Plants)

  • 김희근;공태영
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • 제33권4호
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    • pp.151-160
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    • 2008
  • 국내 원전에서는 과거에 불균일 방사선장이 형성되는 고피폭 방사선작업에 2개의 복수선량계(TLD)를 머리와 기슴에 패용하였으며, 이들 선량계 판독값 중에서 최대값을 유효선량으로 평가함으로써 일정 부분이 과대평가되고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 이러한 문제점을 개선하고자 국제적인 기관에서 제시된 복수선량계 알고리즘을 대상으로 적절한 알고리즘을 선정하기 위한 현장적용 시험을 실시하였다. 여기에는 캐나다 원전사업자(OPG), 미국표준기술협회(ANSI HPS N13.41), NCRP(55/50), NCRP(70/30), EPRI (NRC), Lakshmanan, Kim(Texas A&M University) 알고리즘 등을 대상으로 하였고, 국내 원전의 계획예방정비기간동안 고피폭이 예상되는 방사선작업을 대상으로 작업종사자에게 3개의 복수선량계를 가슴, 머리, 등에 동시에 패용하였고 판독하였다. 이 시험 결과에 따르면 Lakshmanan 알고리즘을 제외하고 유효선량 평가에서 모든 복수선량계 알고리즘이 거의 유사한 경향을 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 현장적용시험 결과와 이들 알고리즘의 기술적 배경과 방사선작업과정에서의 편의성 등을 종합적으로 고려하여 NCRP(55/50) 알고리즘을 최종적으로 선정하였다. 또한 복수선량계 지급조건은 INPO와 ANSI의 지침을 검토하여 빙사선량율이 1 mSv/hr 이상이면서 인체 특정부위 간의 선량율이 30% 이상차이가 나고 단일 작업에서 2mSv 이상피폭을 받을 것으로 예상될 때 지급하는 것으로 결정하였다.

다중 섬광결정을 이용한 고해상도 PET의 불균일/불완전 데이터 보정기법 연구 (Compensation Methods for Non-uniform and Incomplete Data Sampling in High Resolution PET with Multiple Scintillation Crystal Layers)

  • 이재성;김수미;이건송;심광숙;이준택;박광석;이동수;홍성종
    • Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging
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    • 제42권1호
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    • pp.52-60
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    • 2008
  • 목적: 다중섬광결정 PET으로 얻은 데이터에 대한 여과후역투사 영상재구성 적용을 위한 사이노그램 저장과 보정 방법을 확립하고자 한다. 대상 및 방법: 검출된 PET 데이터에 대한 저장기법에 대한 연구를 수행하여 효율적 영상재구성을 위한 사이노그램 방식을 확립하였다. 히스토그램에서 사이노그램으로 데이터를 변환할 때 생기는 제반 문제들을 해결하기 위하여 데이터 표본의 최적화와 표본 불균일성 보정기법에 관한 연구를 수행하였으며, PMT간 틈새 보정을 위 한 연구를 수행하였다. 모든 데이터는 2차원 여과후역투사 알고리즘을 이용하여 재구성하였으며 보정에 따른 영상질의 향상을 평가하였다. 결과: 표본이론에 의해서 추정된 최소 표본수와 표본 불균일성 보정기법의 적용을 위한 수월성 등을 고려할 때 방사방향 표본간격이 pitch/2, 각 표본수가 120개 정도가 적절하였으며, 불균일성 보정과 틈새보정을 적용함으로서 영상왜곡과 배경잡음을 줄일 수 있었다. 결론: 다층섬광결정 PET의 FBP 영상재구성을 위하여 히스토그램 데이터를 사이노그램으로 변환하는 기법에 대한 연구가 이루어졌으며 이를 통한 고속의 2D 영상재구성이 가능할 것으로 보인다.

화학물질 누출에 의한 대량재해 - Methyl Isocyanate 누출을 중심으로 - (Chemical Disaster of Methyl Isocyanate Leakage)

  • 양혁준;최중명;유동준
    • 한국응급구조학회지
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    • 제3권1호
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    • pp.7-19
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    • 1999
  • Background : We are in the edge of some human made disasters such as hazardous materials and air pollution, for example, the world news reported that the city of Bhopal, India had serious victims related with a leaking out of the chemical materials, Methyl Isocyanate and many people in India were killed by. These situations many people who live in this world are world are worrying about are not others, but just ours and people consider about that kind of the disasters are the possible situation to happen to all the people. Therefore, we performed this basic study to recognize the risk of Methyl Isocyanate leak accident and to prepare local disaster plan with EMS system. Method : Trace 8.0, a simulation software made by the U.S. company Safer System was used as a tool to estimate the diffusion distance, area and its victims at the concentrations of 0.02ppm, 0.2ppm 5ppm respectively for an assumed B-city of 2 hundred thousands population count in which was presumed 500kg Methyl Isocyanate gas to leak out. Results : 1. During 1 hour, maximum diffusion distances of 0.02ppm 0.2ppm and 5ppm were 5.41km, 1.61km and 0.29km respectively on the plume impact. 2. Maximum population counts influenced by Methyl Isocyanate gas at the concentrations of 0.02ppm 0.2ppm and 5ppm were 40838, 4346 and 222 on the plume impact, while those were 138238, 17261 and 1588 on the vulnerability impact, respectively. 3. Therefore, 17261 persons must put on respiratory device and 138283 persons must be evacuated to safety place within 1 hour. Conclusions : Only small amount leak of Methyl Isocyanate may cause tremendous chemical disaster in urban area, so its disaster plan must be prepared with an accident simulation program and Material Safety Data Sheets(MSDS). Especially, nearby emergency center of an industrial complex must have a strong position about preparation of chemical disaster plan and perform a disaster dill of hazardous material accident annually.

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119구급대를 이용한 소아환자의 응급실 내원 현황 - C대학병원 응급의료센터를 중심으로 - (The status quo of offering help in emergency room on pediatric patients with 119 rescuer - Focused on the Emergency Center of C National University Hospital -)

  • 윤종근;이정용
    • 한국응급구조학회지
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    • 제11권3호
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    • pp.119-128
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    • 2007
  • It is happening a lot that the pediatric patients who are offering help in emergency room with background 119 rescuer require emergency care compared to adults. Our study was conducted to have a clear grasp of the status quo of pediatric patients who are offering help in emergency room with 119 rescuer. METHOD & OBJECT pediatric patients under 8 age who were offering help was conducted as objects by 119 cases from January, 2006 to January 2007, with 119 rescuer at C university hospital in Gwangju metropolitan city, which were 87 cases for a boy(73.1%), 32 cases for a girl. Based on emergency diary of emergency members and the medical treatment record of emergency room in C university hospital, a disease and a type of an external wound were analyzed according to ages of these patients, a time zone and season. RESULT In terms of an age, 25 cases(21.0%) have less than 1 age extremelymuch, in case of emergency, 61 cases(51.3%), which were more than non-emergency, in terms of happened places of patients, there were households up to 78 cases(65.5%) extremely much. In terms of happened time, 13:00 to 18:00 have highest data up to 48 cases(40.3%). According to season, there were no big differences in 4 seasons(spring : 30.3%, summer : 24.4%, fall : 29.4%, winter : 16.0%). In case of being offered help at emergency room due to diseases, 1-2 ages have highest estimate with 55.7%, in terms of a time zone, 19:00-24:00 have highest with 33.7%, in terms of season, summer(6, 7, 8) have highest with 32.8%. in case of traffic accident, 7-8 age have highest with 47.1%, according to a time zone, 13:00 to 18:00 have highest with 88.2%, according to season, fall have highest with 64.7%. In case of an external wound, 3-4 age have highest with 38.2%, according to a time zone, 13:00-18:00 have highest with 41.2%, according to season, spring have highest with 38.2%. CONCLUSION It shows that in case of pediatric patients who were offering help at emergency room with 119 rescuer, a pediatric under 1 age was due to a disease, in case of an external wound, there were 3-4 age, in case of traffic accident, 7-8 age have highest, a case for emergency have highest.

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인삼 재배 작업의 재해 위험 요인과 안전 대책 - 인삼 재배 농업인 대상 안전교육 자료 개발을 위한 조사 연구 (Risk Factors and Safety Measures for Ginseng Cultivation Work - An Examination Study to Develop Contents of Safety Education for Ginseng Farmers)

  • 공용구;이인석;이경숙;최경희;강다영;이주희
    • 대한인간공학회지
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    • 제36권5호
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    • pp.545-557
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    • 2017
  • Objective: The aim of this study was to find risk factors in cultivating ginseng based on risk assessments and suggest safety measures for main risks. Background: Safety education and training is one of the practical and effective methods to prevent occupational accidents and injuries. In agricultural sector, there are few contents of safety education as compared to other industries. Especially, farm work has different cultivation characteristics according to the crops, so it needs special education materials for each crop. Among the various types of crops, ginseng contains various risk factors due to its long cultivating period and unique environment. Therefore, safety education material specified for ginseng is necessary to improve ginseng farmers' safety. Method: Risk assessment for cultivating tasks of ginseng was carried out through data obtained from various methods (site survey, interview, literature survey). To improve objectivity, the risk assessment was applied with 3-criteria (researcher estimate, interview, previous research results). Finally, the three high-risk tasks were selected and safety measures for those tasks were provided. Results: Three tasks, such as 'Mounting, maintenance and removing supports', 'Pest control' and 'Harvest', were selected as risky tasks among total tasks. (1) In 'Mounting' and maintenance and removing supports', the farmers found to be exposed to the risks of musculoskeletal disorders and accidents related to operating the tablet machine. (2) In 'Pest control', agrichemical poisoning, musculoskeletal disorders and hyperthermia were main risks. Finally, (3) In 'Harvest', the farmers are mainly exposed to the possibility of accidents of agricultural machines and risks of musculoskeletal disorders. Thus, it needs to apply appropriate safety measures to those risky tasks, such as safety guidelines, convenience equipment, protective kit, and so on. Conclusion: This study can be used as basic data for agricultural safety and expected that it would be useful for further study. In addition, the results of the research will be produced in the form of animation, which will enhance the safety consciousness for aged farmers. Application: The result of this study can be used in developing safety education materials for ginseng farmers which is essential to prevent occupational accidents and injuries among ginseng farmers.

Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality in China, 2010

  • Zheng, Zhao-Xu;Zheng, Rong-Shou;Zhang, Si-Wei;Chen, Wan-Qing
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권19호
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    • pp.8455-8460
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    • 2014
  • Background: The National Central Cancer Registry of China (NCCR) affiliated to the Bureau of Disease Control, National Health and Family Planning Commission of China is responsible for cancer surveillance in the entire country. Cancer registration data from each local registry located in each province are collected by NCCR annually to be analyzed and published to provide useful information for policy makers and cancer researchers. Materials and Methods: Until 1st June, 2013, 219 population-based cancer registries submitted data of 2010 to the National Central Cancer Registry of China covering about 207,229,403 population, and 145 cancer registries were selected after quality evaluation for this study. Colorectal cancer cases were selected from the database according to ICD-10 coded as "C18-C20". We calculated the crude incidence and mortality rates by sex, age groups and location (urban/rural). The China population in 2000 and Segi's population were used as standardized populations for the calculation of age-standardized rates. The 6th National Population Census data of China was used to combined with the cancer registries' data to estimate the colorectal cancer burden in China in 2010. Results: Colorectal cancer was the sixth most common cancer in China. It was estimated that there were 274,841 new cases diagnosed in 2010 (157,355 in males and 117,486 in females), with the crude incidence rate of 20.1/100,000, highest in males in urban areas. Age-standardized rates by China standard population of 2000 (ASRcn) and World standard population (Segi's population, ASRwld) for incidence were 16.1/100,000 and 15.9/100,000 respectively. There were 132,110 cases estimated to have died from colorectal cancer in China in 2010 (76,646 men and 55,464 women) with the crude mortality rate of 10.1/100,000. The ASRcn and ASRwld for mortality were 7.55/100,000 and 7.44/100,000 respectively, higher in males and urban areas than in females and rural areas. The incidence and mortality rates increased with age, reaching peaksin the 80-84 year old, and oldest age groups, respectively. Conclusions: Colorectal cancer is one of the most common incident cancers and cause of cancer death in China. Primary and secondary prevention, with attention to a health lifestyle, physical activity and screening should be enhanced in the general population.

The ERCC1 C118T Polymorphism Predicts Clinical Outcomes of Colorectal Cancer Patients Receiving Oxaliplatin-Based Chemotherapy: a Meta-analysis Based on 22 Studies

  • Qian, Ying-Ying;Liu, Xin-You;Wu, Qian;Song, Xian;Chen, Xiao-Feng;Liu, Yi-Qian;Pei, Dong;Shen, Li-Zong;Shu, Yong-Qian
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권19호
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    • pp.8383-8390
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    • 2014
  • Background: Although the predictive value of the excision repair cross-complementing group 1 (ERCC1) C118T polymorphism in clinical outcomes of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) receiving oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy has been evaluated in numerous published studies, the conclusions are conflicting. Therefore, we performed the present meta-analysis to determine the precise role of the ERCC1 C118T polymorphism in this clinical situation and help optimize individual chemotherapy. Materials and Methods: A multiple search strategy was used to identify eligible studies. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to estimate objective response and oxaliplatin-induced toxicity, with hazard ratios (HRs) with 95%CIs for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Results: A total of 22 studies including 2,846 CRC patients were eligible in the analysis. Overall, no significant correlation was found between the ERCC1 C118T polymorphism and objective response to oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy, in all patients or in the Asian and Caucasian subgroups. However, the pooled analysis showed that the PFS and OS were significantly shorter in patients who carried T/T or T/C genotypes of ERCC1 C118T as compared to the C/C genotype. On stratified analysis by ethnicity, the ERCC1 118T allele was associated with a favorable prognosis in Caucasians (PFS, HR=0.58, 95%CI: 0.24-1.44; OS, HR=0.38, 95%CI: 0.22-0.64) but an unfavorable prognosis in Asians (PFS, HR=2.49, 95%CI: 1.87-3.33; OS, HR=2.63, 95%CI: 1.87-3.69) based on a dominant model. In addition, we failed to find a statistically significant impact of ERCC1 C118T polymorphism on oxaliplatin-induced toxicity. Conclusions: The ERCC1 C118T polymorphism may have prognostic value in patients with CRC undergoing oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy.