• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.43-50
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• 2019

The aviation demand forecast field has been actively studied along with the recent growth of the aviation market. In this study, the demand for domestic passenger demand and freight demand was estimated through cross-validation method. As a result, passenger demand is influenced by private consumption growth rate, oil price, and exchange rate. Freight demand is affected by GDP per capita, private consumption growth rate, and oil price. In particular, passenger demand is characterized by temporary external shocks, and freight demand is more affected by economic variables than temporary shocks.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.98-105
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• 2019

In the past 30 years, our aviation demand has been growing continuously. As such, the importance of the demand forecasting field is increasing. In this study, the factors influencing Korea's international air demand were selected, and the international air demand was analyzed, forecasted and reviewed through OLS multiple regression analysis. As a result, passenger demand was affected by GDP per capita, oil price and exchange rate, while cargo demand was affected by GDP per capita and private consumption growth rate. In particular, passenger demand was analyzed to be sensitive to temporary external shocks, and cargo demand was more affected by economic variables than temporary external shocks. Demand forecasting, OLS multiple regression analysis, passenger demand, cargo demand, transient external shocks, economic variables.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.65-75
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• 2022

This study aims to forecast of Air Passenger Demand between South Korea and North Korea using the system dynamics analysis methodology that is based on the system thinking. System dynamics is not only a tool that makes the systematic thought to a model but also a computer program-based analysis methodology that mathematically models the system varying according to time variation. This study analyzed the causal relationship based on the interrelation among variables and structured them by considering various variables that affect aviation cooperation from the perspective of Air passenger demand forecasting. In addition, based on the causal relationship between variables, this study also completed the causal loop diagram that forms a feedback loop, constructed the stock-flow diagram of Inter-Korean model using Vensim program. In this study, Air passenger demand was using by the simulation variable value into System Dynamics. This study was difficult to reflect the various variables constituting the North Korea environment, and there is a limit to the occurrence of events in North Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.178-186
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• 2017

Air travel has become an essential part of the global society and its sustainable development is expected. Airlines profit structure and network operation will be influenced by internalization of external costs like emission charge. This additional cost of the airlines will be directly pose air ticket fare increase and demand of air passenger will be decreased. EU-ETS is a part of environmental binding to airlines fly to EU territory airports. This study analyzes the impact of emission charges by application of EU-ETS on airlines network change. For long-term forecast, a reliable estimation of the future price of carbon dioxide (CO2) will be used.

• 한국항공운항학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.178-191
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• 2016

Incheon International Airport (IIA) is trying to boost itself up for the Hub airport with a proactive marketing and large scale of airport expansion plan. Even the transfer rate of IIA for now is not high enough for a Hub airport, it is expected to keep increase for the future due to an effort to be the Hub. This study is to be made for setting the standards of airport planning as to the transfer rate based on the research of operational characteristics of Hub airport.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.47-54
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• 2004

Recently, a large reduction in domestic aviation demand had roughly shown in the range between 34% and 75% in east central and western corridor of Korea. The reasons for the drop in air traffic demand were the provisioning of several new highway serveces and the national economic difficulties. Since April 2004, moreover, the Korea Train Express(KTX) was operated between Seoul and Daegu in the first phrase of 293Km in KTX operational distance and 258Km in air route distance. The operation of KTX significantly impacted air traffic volume, particularly on the overlapped air routes with KTX routes. This study analyzed the effects on air traffic demand in accordance with the opening of KTX by applying the Stated Preference (SP) survey method, the survey conducted prior to 8 months of the KTX initiative. Also, the comparison of the decreased demand forecast by SP analysis and actual revealed traffic volume during two months service after inauguration of KTX was conducted. The Seoul-Daegu route was analysed using the 3 variables considered access and egress time, fare rate, operational frequency. The result obtained from the analysis showed that air users would be preferred only 14%. Comparatively, however, the actual revealed air passengers after the opening KTX were remained 28%, The less "decreased demand" was caused by the instability of the KTX's operation in the initial stage. Therefore, small numbers of passenger were preferable to airservices rather than high speed railroad service.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.83-91
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• 2009

This paper aims to predict air passenger and air freight demands in the air routes between South and North Korea. The air demands will be fostered by the visitors of Pyeongyang and Baekdu Mountain, whose forecasts will be used for supplying the air traffic services necessary for the active exchange and cooperation between South and North Korea in the future. The authors use the tool of regression analysis under the assumption of epoch-making progress in demand for aviation in accordance with the exchange and cooperation scenario between South and North Korea. After predicting the total number of travelers through regression analysis, the authors applied the share of air passengers among total travelers in order to predict the number of air passengers. Finally, the number of flights of each airport and route were forecasted by including the air freight, estimated from the number of air passengers.