Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics (한국항공운항학회지)

The Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics (한국항공운항학회)
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A Study on Forecasting of Inter-Korea Air Passenger Demand Using System Dynamics

시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 남북한 항공수요 예측에 관한 연구

  • 최지헌 (한서대학교 일반대학원 항공운항관리학과, 진에어) ;
  • 원동욱 (서울시립대학교, 라산ENG) ;
  • 김규왕 (한서대학교 항공운항학과)
  • Received : 2022.08.26
  • Accepted : 2022.11.25
  • Published : 2022.12.31
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Abstract

This study aims to forecast of Air Passenger Demand between South Korea and North Korea using the system dynamics analysis methodology that is based on the system thinking. System dynamics is not only a tool that makes the systematic thought to a model but also a computer program-based analysis methodology that mathematically models the system varying according to time variation. This study analyzed the causal relationship based on the interrelation among variables and structured them by considering various variables that affect aviation cooperation from the perspective of Air passenger demand forecasting. In addition, based on the causal relationship between variables, this study also completed the causal loop diagram that forms a feedback loop, constructed the stock-flow diagram of Inter-Korean model using Vensim program. In this study, Air passenger demand was using by the simulation variable value into System Dynamics. This study was difficult to reflect the various variables constituting the North Korea environment, and there is a limit to the occurrence of events in North Korea.

Keywords

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