Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics (한국항공운항학회지)

The Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics (한국항공운항학회)
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Domestic air demand forecast using cross-validation

교차검증을 이용한 국내선 항공수요예측

  • 임재환 (경희대학교 경제학과) ;
  • 김영록 (한서대학교 항공운항관리학과) ;
  • 최연철 (한서대학교 항공산업대학원) ;
  • 김광일 (신라대학교 항공운항학과)
  • Received : 2019.02.07
  • Accepted : 2019.03.25
  • Published : 2019.03.31
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Abstract

The aviation demand forecast field has been actively studied along with the recent growth of the aviation market. In this study, the demand for domestic passenger demand and freight demand was estimated through cross-validation method. As a result, passenger demand is influenced by private consumption growth rate, oil price, and exchange rate. Freight demand is affected by GDP per capita, private consumption growth rate, and oil price. In particular, passenger demand is characterized by temporary external shocks, and freight demand is more affected by economic variables than temporary shocks.

Keywords

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Fig 1. Passenger demand forecast graph

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Fig 2. Freight demand forecast graph

Table 1. Data source and criteria

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Table 2. Contents of eight observation models

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Table 3. White noise test results(Passenger)

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Table 4. Cross-validation test results(Passenger)

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Table 5. Passenger demand forecast results

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Table 6. White noise test results(Freight)

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Table 7. Cross-validation test results(Freight)

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Table 8. Freight demand forecast results

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Table 9. Passenger demand annual result table, 2014-2016

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Table 10. Freight demand annual result table, 2014-2016

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References

  1. Se-kyung, Seo, Byung-ho, Jung, Ik-ki, Kim. A Study on Estimating of Air Freight Demand using Regression Model. Journal of the Military Operations Research Society of Korea, 35(3), 2009, pp.1-15
  2. Young-hyuk, Lee, Min-young, Ryu, Seong-ho, Choi. A Study on Forecasting Air Transport Demand between South and North Korea. Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, 27(2), 2009, pp.83-91
  3. Se-young, Lee. Comparative study on the entrance of low cost carriers and the effects of air demand creation in Korea. Master's thesis, Seoul National University, 2017
  4. Him-chan, Cho, Dong-gi, Kwag, Kang-seok, Lee, Won-hyuck, Choi, Jung-pyo, Park, Seo-been, Kim. A Study on the Airline Demand Forecasting for Domestic Inland Using Linear Regression Analysis, The Society Aerospace System Engineering, SASE 2018 Spring Conference, 2018(1), 2018, pp.32-33
  5. Korea Transport Institute. Air Demand Forecast Analysis, 2012

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