• Title/Summary/Keyword: accurate prediction

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Development of Reservoir Operation Model using Simulation Technique in Flood Season (I) (모의기법에 의한 홍수기 저수지 운영 모형 개발 (I))

  • Sin, Yong-No;Maeng, Seung-Jin;Go, Ik-Hwan;Lee, Hwan-Gi
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.745-755
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    • 2000
  • The dam operation system of KOWACO for flood control doesn't have capability to account for the downstream hydrologic conditions and any feasible index to decide the pre-release from the forecasted rainfall and inflow. In this study, a dam operation model for flood control was developed to account for the flood flow condition of its downstream to give users the dam release schedules. Application test of EV ROM to Keum River showed that EV ROM is superior to the Rigid ROM and Technical ROM which are currently used by KOWACO. EV ROM developed in this study provides a release schedule accounting for the cumulative lateral flow hydrograph at the downstream control points where the discharge does not depend only on the dam operation. but also on lateral inflow from the tributaries. In order to reduce the peak discharge at the control points, it suggests the preliminary release during the early rising phase of the predicted hydrograph, holding the flood flow inside the dam during a peak phase, and afterward resuming the release. Three case studies of flood control by the operation of Daechung Multipurpose Dam in Geum River Basin show that the EV ROM is superior to the Rigid ROM and Technical ROM. This must be due to its nature to account for the downstream flow condition as well as the inflow and water level of the dam. It was also conceived that further case studies of EV ROM and more accurate rainfall prediction would improve the dam operation for flood control.ontrol.

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The Verification of a Numerical Simulation of Urban area Flow and Thermal Environment Using Computational Fluid Dynamics Model (전산 유체 역학 모델을 이용한 도시지역 흐름 및 열 환경 수치모의 검증)

  • Kim, Do-Hyoung;Kim, Geun-Hoi;Byon, Jae-Young;Kim, Baek-Jo;Kim, Jae-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.38 no.7
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    • pp.522-534
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to verify urban flow and thermal environment by using the simulated Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model in the area of Gangnam Seonjeongneung, and then to compare the CFD model simulation results with that of Seonjeongneung-monitoring networks observation data. The CFD model is developed through the collaborative research project between National Institute of Meteorological Sciences and Seoul National University (CFD_NIMR_SNU). The CFD_NIMR_SNU model is simulated using Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Local Data Assimilation Prediction System (LDAPS) wind and potential temperature as initial and boundary conditions from August 4-6, 2015, and that is improved to consider vegetation effect and surface temperature. It is noticed that the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of wind speed decreases from 1.06 to $0.62m\;s^{-1}$ by vegetation effect over the Seonjeongneung area. Although the wind speed is overestimated, RMSE of wind speed decreased in the CFD_NIMR_SNU than LDAPS. The temperature forecast tends to underestimate in the LDAPS, while it is improved by CFD_NIMR_SNU. This study shows that the CFD model can provide detailed and accurate thermal and urban area flow information over the complex urban region. It will contribute to analyze urban environment and planning.

Classification and Performance Evaluation Methods of an Algal Bloom Model (적조모형의 분류 및 성능평가 기법)

  • Cho, Hong-Yeon;Cho, Beom Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.405-412
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    • 2014
  • A number of algal bloom models (red-tide models) have been developed and applied to simulate the redtide growth and decline patterns as the interest on the phytoplankton blooms has been continuously increased. The quantitative error analysis of the model is of great importance because the accurate prediction of the red-tide occurrence and transport pattern can be used to setup the effective mitigations and counter-measures on the coastal ecosystem, aquaculture and fisheries damages. The word "red-tide model" is widely used without any clear definitions and references. It makes the comparative evaluation of the ecological models difficult and confusable. It is highly required to do the performance test of the red-tide models based on the suitable classification and appropriate error analysis because model structures are different even though the same/similar words (e.g., red-tide, algal bloom, phytoplankton growth, ecological or ecosystem models) are used. Thus, the references on the model classification are suggested and the advantage and disadvantage of the models are also suggested. The processes and methods on the performance test (quantitative error analysis) are recommend to the practical use of the red-tide model in the coastal seas. It is suggested in each stage of the modeling procedures, such as verification, calibration, validation, and application steps. These suggested references and methods can be attributed to the effective/efficient marine policy decision and the coastal ecosystem management plan setup considering the red-tide and/or ecological models uncertainty.

Habitat Prediction and Impact Assessment of Eurya japonica Thunb. under Climate Change in Korea (기후변화에 따른 한반도 사스레피나무의 생육지 예측과 영향 평가)

  • Yun, Jong-Hak;Park, Jeong Soo;Choi, Jong-Yun;Nakao, Katsuhiro
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.291-302
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    • 2017
  • The research was carried out in order to find climate factors which determine the distribution of Eurya japonica, and the potential habitats (PHs) under the current climate and climate change scenario by using species distribution models (SDMs). Four climate factors; the warmth index (WI), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC), summer precipitation (PRS), and winter precipitaion (PRW) : were used as independent variables for the model. Seventeen general circulation models under RCP (Representative concentration pathway) 8.5 scenarios were used as future climate scenarios for the 2050s (2040~2069) and 2080s (2070~2099). Highly accurate SDMs were obtained for E. japonica. The model of distribution for E. japonica constructed by SDMs showed that minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC) is a major climate factor in determining the distribution of E. japonica. The area above the $-5.7^{\circ}C$ of TMC revealed high occurrence probability of the E. japonica. Future PHs for E. japonica were projected to increase respectively by 2.5 times, 3.4 times of current PHs under 2050s and 2080s. It is expected that the potential of E. japonica habitats is expanded gradually. E. japonica is applicable as indicator species for monitoring in the Korean Peninsula. E. japonica is necessary to be monitored of potential habitats.

The study on estimated breeding value and accuracy for economic traits in Gyoungnam Hanwoo cow (Korean cattle)

  • Kim, Eun Ho;Kim, Hyeon Kwon;Sun, Du Won;Kang, Ho Chan;Lee, Doo Ho;Lee, Seung Hwan;Lee, Jae Bong;Lim, Hyun Tae
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.62 no.4
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    • pp.429-437
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    • 2020
  • This study was conducted to construct basic data for the selection of elite cows by analyzing the estimated breeding value (EBV) and accuracy using the pedigree of Hanwoo cows in Gyeongnam. The phenotype trait used in the analysis are the carcass weight (CWT), eye muscle area (EMA), backfat thickness (BFT) and marbling score (MS). The pedigree of the test group and reference group was collected to build a pedigree structure and a numeric relationship matrix (NRM). The EBV, genetic parameters and accuracy were estimated by applying NRM to the best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) multiple-trait animal model of the BLUPF90 program. Looking at the pedigree structure of the test group, there were a total of 2,371 cows born between 2003 to 2009, of these 603 cows had basic registration (25%), 562 cows had pedigree registration (24%) and 1,206 cows had advanced registration (51%). The proportion of pedigree registered cows was relatively low but it gradually increased and reached a point of 20,847 cows (68%) between 2010 to 2017. Looking at the change in the EBV, the CWT improved from 4.992 kg to 9.885 kg, the EMA from 0.970 ㎠ to 2.466 ㎠, the BFT from -0.186 mm to -0.357 mm, and the MS from 0.328 to 0.559 points. As a result of genetic parameter estimation, the heritability of CWT, EMA, BFT, and MS were 0.587, 0.416, 0.476, and 0.571, respectively, and the accuracy of those were estimated to be 0.559, 0.551, 0.554, and 0.558, respectively. Selection of superior genetic breed and efficient improvement could be possible if cow ability verification is implemented by using the accurate pedigree of each individual in the farms.

Safety Simulation of Therapeutic I-131 Capsule Using GEANT4 (GEANT4를 이용한 치료용 I-131 캡슐의 안정성 시뮬레이션)

  • Jeong, Yeong-Hwan;Kim, Byung-Cheol;Sim, Cheol-Min;Seo, Han-Kyung;Gwon, Yong-Ju;Han, Dong-Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.57-61
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    • 2014
  • Purpose Iodine (I-131) is one of the most widely used radioactive isotopes for therapeutic in the field of nuclear medicine. Therapeutic I-131 capsule is made out of lead to shield high energy radiation. Accurate dosimetry is necessarily required to perform safe and effective work for relative workers. The Monte Carlo method is known as a method to predict the absorbed dose distribution most accurately in radiation therapy and many researchers constantly attempt to apply this method to the dose calculation of radiotherapy recently. This paper aims to calculate distance dependent and activity dependent therapeutic I-131 capsule using GEANT4. Materials and Methods Therapeutic capsules was implemented on the basis of the design drawings. The simulated dose was determined by generating of gamma rays of energy to more than 364 keV. The simulated dose from the capsule at the distance of 10 cm and 100 cm was measured and calculated in the model of water phantom. The simulated dose were separately calculated for each position of each detector. Results According to the domestic regulation on radiation safety, the dose at 10 cm and 100 cm away from the surface of therapeutic I-131 capsule should not exceed 2.0 mSv/h and 0.02 mSv/h, respectively. The simulated doses turned out to be less than the limit, satisfying the domestic regulation. Conclusion These simulation results may serve as useful data in the prediction of hands dose absorbed by I-131 capsule handling. GEANT4 is considered that it will be effectively used in order to check the radiation dose.

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Prediction of Rice Yield in Korea using Paddy Rice NPP index - Application of MODIS data and CASA Model - (논벼 NPP 지수를 이용한 우리나라 벼 수량 추정 - MODIS 영상과 CASA 모형의 적용 -)

  • Na, Sang Il;Hong, Suk Young;Kim, Yi Hyun;Lee, Kyoung Do;Jang, So Young
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.461-476
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    • 2013
  • Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model is one of the most quick, convenient and accurate models to estimate the NPP (Net Primary Productivity) of vegetation. The purposes of this study are (1) to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation NPP of the paddy field area in Korea from 2002 to 2012, and (2) to investigate how the rice productivity responded to inter-annual NPP variability, and (3) to estimate rice yield in Korea using CASA model applied to MOderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and solar radiation. MODIS products; MYD09 for NIR and SWIR bands, MYD11 for LST, MYD15 for FPAR, respectively from a NASA web site were used. Finally, (4) its applicability is to be reviewed. For those purposes, correlation coefficients (linear regression for monthly NPP and accumulated NPP with rice yield) were examined to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of the relations. As a result, the total accumulated NPP and Sep. NPP tend to have high correlation with rice yield. The rice yield in 2012 was estimated to be 526.93kg/10a by accumulated NPP and 520.32 kg/10a by Sep. NPP. RMSE were 9.46kg/10a and 12.93kg/10a, respectively, compared with the yield forecast of the National Statistical Office. This leads to the conclusion that NPP changes in the paddy field were well reflected rice yield in this study.

A Prediction of the Penetration Depth on CO2 Arc Welding of Steel Sheet Lap Joint with Fillet for Car Body using Multiple Regression Analysis Technique (자동차용 박강판 겹치기 이음부의 CO2 아크 용접에서 다중회귀분석기법을 이용한 용입깊이 예측에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Min;Sim, Hyun-Woo;Kwon, Jae-Hyung;Yoon, Buk-Dong;Jeong, Min-Ki;Park, Moon-Soo;Lee, Bo-Young
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.59-64
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    • 2012
  • Welding is an essential process in the automotive industry. Most welding processes that are used for auto body are spot welding and $CO_2$ welding are used in a small part. In production field, $CO_2$ welding process is decreased and spot welding process is increased due to welding quality is poor and defects are occurred in $CO_2$ welding process frequently. But $CO_2$ welding process should be used at robot interference parts and closed parts where spot welding couldn't. Because of the 0.65mm ~ 2.0mm thickness steel sheet were used in the automotive industry, poor quality of welding area such as burn through and under fill were happened frequently in $CO_2$ process. In this paper, we will study about the penetration depth which gives a huge impact on burn through changing a degree of base metal, welding position and torch angle. Voltage, current and welding speed were fixed but degree of base metal, welding position and torch angle were changed. And Cold- Rolled(CR) steel sheet was used. Penetration depth was analysed by multiple regression analysis to derive approximate calculations. And reliability of approximate calculations were confirmed through additional experiments. As the results of this research, we confirmed the effect of torch and plate angle to bead shape. And we present a possibility that can simulate more accurate to weld geometry, as deduced the verification equations that has tolerance of less than 21.69%.

Development of Three-dimensional Finite Element Models for Concrete Pavement of the KHC Test Road (시험도로 계측 결과를 이용한 3차원 콘크리트포장 유한요소해석 결과 검증)

  • Lee, Dong-Hyun;Kim, Ji-Won;Kwon, Soon-Min;Lee, Jae-Hoon
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.9 no.1 s.31
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this paper is the establishment of finite element analysis frame work for pavement research. Finite element analysis results simulating various loading experiments are verified with sensor measurements obtained from the KHC Test Road. The accuracy of the finite element analysis can be supported by these efforts so that it helps spread out the finite element analysis to pavement research and design processes. The finite element model used in this research is the full 3D nonlinear model including concrete slab, lean concrete base, subbase, shoulder, dowel, and tie-bar. In order to accomplish the accurate verification, the loading condition and the pavement temperature distribution are exactly simulated with field measured data. The curling behavior and the strain distribution are compared with measured responses from the loading tests with a truck and the FWD. Strain and curling predictions from the concrete slab are matched well with measured responses but the strain prediction from the lean concrete base is not matched with measured response. In addition, the magnitude of permanent curling is evaluated with the finite element analysis.

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Performance Analysis on Terrain-Adaptive Clutter Map Algorithm for Ground Clutter Rejection of Weather Radar (기상 레이다의 지형 클러터 제거를 위한 지형적응 클러터 맵 알고리듬 성능분석)

  • Kim, Hye-Ri;Jung, Jung-Soo;Kwag, Young-Kil;Kim, Ji-Won;Kim, Ji-Hyeon;Ko, Jeong-Seok
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.25 no.12
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    • pp.1292-1299
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    • 2014
  • Weather radar systems can provide weather information of the ground, sea, and air in extensive spatial coverage in near real time. However, it becomes problematic when ground clutter signal exists around precipitation because strong signals of ground can cause a false precipitation report. A large percentage of land coverage of Korea consists of mountainous regions where ground clutter needs to be mitigated for more accurate prediction. Thus, it is considered necessary to introduce a new suitable ground clutter removal technique specifically adequate for Korea. In this paper, the C-Map(Clutter Map) method using raw radar signals is proposed for removing ground clutter using a terrain-adaptive clutter map. A clutter map is generated using raw radar signals(I/Q) of clear days, then it is subtracted from received radar signals in frequency domain. The proposed method is applied to the radar data acquired from Sobaeksan rain radar and the result shows that the clutter rejection ratio is about 91.17 %.