Korean Journal of Remote Sensing (대한원격탐사학회지)

Korean Society of Remote Sensing (대한원격탐사학회)
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Prediction of Rice Yield in Korea using Paddy Rice NPP index - Application of MODIS data and CASA Model -

논벼 NPP 지수를 이용한 우리나라 벼 수량 추정 - MODIS 영상과 CASA 모형의 적용 -

  • Na, Sang Il (National Academy of Agricultural Science, Rural Development Administration) ;
  • Hong, Suk Young (National Academy of Agricultural Science, Rural Development Administration) ;
  • Kim, Yi Hyun (National Academy of Agricultural Science, Rural Development Administration) ;
  • Lee, Kyoung Do (National Academy of Agricultural Science, Rural Development Administration) ;
  • Jang, So Young (National Academy of Agricultural Science, Rural Development Administration)
  • 나상일 (농촌진흥청 국립농업과학원) ;
  • 홍석영 (농촌진흥청 국립농업과학원) ;
  • 김이현 (농촌진흥청 국립농업과학원) ;
  • 이경도 (농촌진흥청 국립농업과학원) ;
  • 장소영 (농촌진흥청 국립농업과학원)
  • Received : 2013.08.22
  • Accepted : 2013.10.10
  • Published : 2013.10.31
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Abstract

Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model is one of the most quick, convenient and accurate models to estimate the NPP (Net Primary Productivity) of vegetation. The purposes of this study are (1) to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation NPP of the paddy field area in Korea from 2002 to 2012, and (2) to investigate how the rice productivity responded to inter-annual NPP variability, and (3) to estimate rice yield in Korea using CASA model applied to MOderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and solar radiation. MODIS products; MYD09 for NIR and SWIR bands, MYD11 for LST, MYD15 for FPAR, respectively from a NASA web site were used. Finally, (4) its applicability is to be reviewed. For those purposes, correlation coefficients (linear regression for monthly NPP and accumulated NPP with rice yield) were examined to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of the relations. As a result, the total accumulated NPP and Sep. NPP tend to have high correlation with rice yield. The rice yield in 2012 was estimated to be 526.93kg/10a by accumulated NPP and 520.32 kg/10a by Sep. NPP. RMSE were 9.46kg/10a and 12.93kg/10a, respectively, compared with the yield forecast of the National Statistical Office. This leads to the conclusion that NPP changes in the paddy field were well reflected rice yield in this study.

CASA 모델은 작물의 순 일차생산량(NPP)을 추정하는 가장 빠르고 정확한 모델 중 하나이다. 본 연구의 목적은 (1) 2002년 ~ 2012년 동안 한국의 논지역을 대상으로 작물 NPP의 시공간적 변화 패턴을 분석하고, (2) 연간 NPP와 쌀 생산성 간의 관계를 파악하여, (3) MODIS Product와 태양 복사량을 CASA 모형에 적용하여 2012년 한국의 쌀 수량을 추정하는 것이다. 또한, (4) 통계청이 발표한 최종 수량과 비교를 통해 적용을 검토하였다. 이를 위해, 월별 또는 누적 NPP와 수량과의 상관분석을 실시하였다. 그 결과, 총 누적 NPP와 9월의 NPP가 쌀 수량과 높은 상관성을 나타내었으며, 이를 이용하여 추정한 2012년 예측 수량은 누적 NPP 적용시 526.93 kg/10a, 9월의 NPP 적용시 520.32 kg/10a로 추정되었다. 통계청의 최종 수량과의 RMSE는 각각 9.46 kg/10a, 12.93 kg/10a를 나타내었으나, 전반적으로 두 모형 모두 1:1선에 근접한 결과를 보이고 있어 NPP를 이용한 벼 수량 추정 모형이 논벼 수량의 변화특성을 잘 반영하고 있는 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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