• 제목/요약/키워드: accident risk

검색결과 1,548건 처리시간 0.032초

Development of logical structure for multi-unit probabilistic safety assessment

  • Lim, Ho-Gon;Kim, Dong-San;Han, Sang Hoon;Yang, Joon Eon
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • 제50권8호
    • /
    • pp.1210-1216
    • /
    • 2018
  • Site or multi-unit (MU) risk assessment has been a major issue in the field of nuclear safety study since the Fukushima accident in 2011. There have been few methods or experiences for MU risk assessment because the Fukushima accident was the first real MU accident and before the accident, there was little expectation of the possibility that an MU accident will occur. In addition to the lack of experience of MU risk assessment, since an MU nuclear power plant site is usually very complex to analyze as a whole, it was considered that a systematic method such as probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is difficult to apply to MU risk assessment. This paper proposes a new MU risk assessment methodology by using the conventional PSA methodology which is widely used in nuclear power plant risk assessment. The logical failure structure of a site with multiple units is suggested from the definition of site risk, and a decomposition method is applied to identify specific MU failure scenarios.

철도건널목 사고 위험도-발생빈도 평가모델 개발 (Development of Risk-Appearance Frequency Evaluation Model for Railway Level-Crossing Accidents)

  • 김민수;왕종배;박찬우;최돈범
    • 한국안전학회지
    • /
    • 제24권3호
    • /
    • pp.96-101
    • /
    • 2009
  • In this study, a risk-appearance frequency evaluation model for railway level-crossing accidents is developed with the frequency estimation based on the accident history. It follows the worldwide common safety management approach and reflects the operation conditions and accident properties of the domestic railway system. The risk appearance frequency evaluation process contains a development of accident scenarios by defining the system configurations and functions, and a frequency estimation of hazardous events based on the accident history. The developed model is verified with the accident history during 5 years('03-'07) for 3 hazardous events: 'Being trapped in level crossing(Hl)', 'Crossing during warning signal(H2)' and 'Breaking through/detouring the barrier(H3)'. This risk appearance frequency evaluation model will be combined with a consequence evaluation model so as to offer full risk assessment for the railway accident. The accident risk assessment will contribute to improving the safety management of the railway system.

윕기반 철도 위험도평가 사고분석 프로그램 개발에 관한 연구 (Development of a Web Based Railway Accident Analysis Program for Risk Assessment)

  • 박찬우;곽상록;왕종배;박주남
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국철도학회 2006년도 추계학술대회 논문집
    • /
    • pp.1126-1131
    • /
    • 2006
  • Risk assessment of a railway system should be periodically conducted managing a large amount of accumulating accident/incident data and scenarios, which generally requires enormous time and efforts. Therefore, special information management system is essential for railway risk assessment, where data needed for decisions on managing the railway safety could be promptly supported. The objective of this study is to develop a railway accident analysis program for risk assessment. The program is application running on the web which links railway accident analysts throughout the railway industry to a central database. Data entered, together with associated code tables. is stored on MS-SQL database. The program uses the concepts of accident, safety events, causes, related factors(vehicle, person, infrastructure, tool/equipment), recommendations to bring together the various elements of railway accidents. The program will be useful in finding hazard conditions, accident scenarios, quantitatively assessing the risk, and providing pertinent risk measures, eventually serving to prevent railway accidents and reduce severities of railway accidents.

  • PDF

A Probabilistic Approach to Forecasting and Evaluating the Risk of Fishing Vessel Accidents in Korea

  • Kim, Dong-Jin
    • 해양환경안전학회지
    • /
    • 제24권3호
    • /
    • pp.302-310
    • /
    • 2018
  • Despite the accident rate for fishing vessels accounts for 70% of all maritime accidents, few studies on such accidents have been done and most of the them mainly focus on causes and mitigation policies to reduce that accident rate. Thus, this risk analysis on sea accidents is the first to be performed for the successful and efficient implementation of accident reducing measures. In risk analysis, risk is calculated based on the combination of frequency and the consequence of an accident, and is usually expressed as a single number. However, there exists uncertainty in the risk calculation process if one uses a limited number of data for analysis. Therefore, in the study we propose a probabilistic simulation method to forecast risk not as a single number, but in a range of possible risk values. For the capability of the proposed method, using the criteria with the ALARP region, we show the possible risk values spanning across the different risk regions, whereas the single risk value calculated from the existing method lies in one of the risk regions. Therefore, a decision maker could employ appropriate risk mitigation options to handle the risks lying in different regions. For this study, we used fishing vessel accident data from 1988 to 2016.

FUKUSHIMA DAI-ICHI ACCIDENT: LESSONS LEARNED AND FUTURE ACTIONS FROM THE RISK PERSPECTIVES

  • Yang, Joon-Eon
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • 제46권1호
    • /
    • pp.27-38
    • /
    • 2014
  • The Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident in 2011 has affected various aspects of the nuclear society worldwide. The accident revealed some problems in the conventional approaches used to ensure the safety of nuclear installations. To prevent such disastrous accidents in the future, we have to learn from them and improve the conventional approaches in a more systematic manner. In this paper, we will cover three issues. The first is to identify the key issues that affected the progress of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident greatly. We examine the accident from a defense-in-depth point of view to identify such issues. The second is to develop a more systematic approach to enhance the safety of nuclear installations. We reexamine nuclear safety from a risk point of view. We use the concepts of residual and unknown risks in classifying the risk space. All possible accident scenarios types are reviewed to clarify the characteristics of the identified issues. An approach is proposed to improve our conventional approaches used to ensure nuclear safety including the design of safety features and the safety assessments from a risk point of view. Finally, we address some issues to be improved in the conventional risk assessment and management framework and/or practices to enhance nuclear safety.

AHP를 이용한 건축건설공사 공종별 위험도 분석 (Risk Level Analysis of Architectural Work using AHP)

  • 김정민;이종빈;장성록
    • 한국안전학회지
    • /
    • 제32권5호
    • /
    • pp.96-102
    • /
    • 2017
  • The highest fatal accident ratio was recorded in the construction industry. According to the industrial insurance premium rate & business type example, among the construction industry, the architectural work has the highest fatal and loss time accident ratio. Previous literature has investigated various aspects of accident occurrence and prevention in architectural work. However, those studied were limited in that they only focused on the fatal accident without considering the loss time accident. But non fatal accidents were recorded more than 50 times of fatal accidents. Therefore non fatal accidents must be controlled to lessen industrial accidents. Based on this, the goal of this study was to investigate the nature of the loss time accident and derive the risk index of work type in architectural work. In this study, opinions of safety experts were gathered and the risk index of work type was derived using AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process). And verification was accomplished by comparing the results of this study with the risk index derived by analysis of accident records. Results showed that the risk index of work type was significantly higher in steel frame work, temporary installation work, earth & foundation work, facilities work, concrete work. And statistical analysis for verification showed that coefficient of Pearson correlation was 0.686 and P-value was 0.001.

Categorizing accident sequences in the external radiotherapy for risk analysis

  • Kim, Jonghyun
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
    • /
    • 제31권2호
    • /
    • pp.88-96
    • /
    • 2013
  • Purpose: This study identifies accident sequences from the past accidents in order to help the risk analysis application to the external radiotherapy. Materials and Methods: This study reviews 59 accidental cases in two retrospective safety analyses that have collected the incidents in the external radiotherapy extensively. Two accident analysis reports that accumulated past incidents are investigated to identify accident sequences including initiating events, failure of safety measures, and consequences. This study classifies the accidents by the treatments stages and sources of errors for initiating events, types of failures in the safety measures, and types of undesirable consequences and the number of affected patients. Then, the accident sequences are grouped into several categories on the basis of similarity of progression. As a result, these cases can be categorized into 14 groups of accident sequence. Results: The result indicates that risk analysis needs to pay attention to not only the planning stage, but also the calibration stage that is committed prior to the main treatment process. It also shows that human error is the largest contributor to initiating events as well as to the failure of safety measures. This study also illustrates an event tree analysis for an accident sequence initiated in the calibration. Conclusion: This study is expected to provide sights into the accident sequences for the prospective risk analysis through the review of experiences.

재해사례 분석을 통한 제철소 공정별 주요위험요인 도출 (Deduction of Main Hazard Cause to the Progress of Iron Work for Accident Analysis)

  • 홍성만;박범;선수빈
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
    • /
    • 제11권3호
    • /
    • pp.33-40
    • /
    • 2009
  • Steel and iron manufacture works exist that many latency risk as melting liquid of high temperature, work of high place, and so on. Once in a while, the accident case make use of basic data for latency risk analysis in a place of business. In this paper, we investigated the cause of the accident in steel an iron works. The result, we came across that many latency risk in steel and iron manufacture works. The main type of risk are fall, narrow, come flying, etc. Most of the latency risk type are repetition and conventional accident. Accordingly, steel and manufacture works must prevent to repetition and conventional accident.

재해분석을 통한 농업토목공사의 공종별 위험성 평가 (Risk Assessment of Agricultural Construction Works using Accident Analysis and Analytic Hierarchy Process)

  • 양영진;오수훈;노재경
    • 한국농공학회논문집
    • /
    • 제60권4호
    • /
    • pp.15-25
    • /
    • 2018
  • The accident risk at the construction workplace associated with agricultural engineering is comparatively higher than those of other fields due mainly to its complex work types and processes. Agricultural engineering deals with a variety of agricultural infrastructures from irrigation and drainage facilities to giant-scale coastal reclamation land infrastructures. The characteristics that most agricultural projects have conducted on a small-scale even worsen the situation drawing low attentions to risk management. Therefore, systematical risk assessment that focuses on details of agricultural construction work process is required in order to enhance safety management capacity and to prevent repetitive accidents ultimately. This study aims to categorize construction work types and processes of agricultural construction works, and to quantitatively assess the accident risk of them based on accident analysis. Regarding classification of construction works, actual 827 accident cases were thoroughly reviewed and coded by their construction site, facility and work type, project scale and so on. Most accidents (71.8 % of total cases) occurred in small-scale construction workplaces with less than 5 billion Korean won project budget. And those accidents related to agricultural infrastructure project (37.4%) and agricultural water development project (22.4%). In terms of work types, accidents frequently took place in form-work followed by pipe installation work, steel bar work and concrete work. The potential risks were compared with actual outbreak of accidents based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The results show that the potential conditions of accident expected to be took place is somewhat different from the actual conditions where accidents actually happened. This implicates that risk management manuals or education needs to be adjusted by reflecting unexpected circumstances. Overall, this study is meaningful in that the results could be foundations as to strengthen risk management capacity for agricultural engineering projects.

자연어 처리 기법을 활용한 산업재해 위험요인 구조화 (Structuring Risk Factors of Industrial Incidents Using Natural Language Process)

  • 강성식;장성록;이종빈;서용윤
    • 한국안전학회지
    • /
    • 제36권1호
    • /
    • pp.56-63
    • /
    • 2021
  • The narrative texts of industrial accident reports help to identify accident risk factors. They relate the accident triggers to the sequence of events and the outcomes of an accident. Particularly, a set of related keywords in the context of the narrative can represent how the accident proceeded. Previous studies on text analytics for structuring accident reports have been limited to extracting individual keywords without context. We proposed a context-based analysis using a Natural Language Processing (NLP) algorithm to remedy this shortcoming. This study aims to apply Word2Vec of the NLP algorithm to extract adjacent keywords, known as word embedding, conducted by the neural network algorithm based on supervised learning. During processing, Word2Vec is conducted by adjacent keywords in narrative texts as inputs to achieve its supervised learning; keyword weights emerge as the vectors representing the degree of neighboring among keywords. Similar keyword weights mean that the keywords are closely arranged within sentences in the narrative text. Consequently, a set of keywords that have similar weights presents similar accidents. We extracted ten accident processes containing related keywords and used them to understand the risk factors determining how an accident proceeds. This information helps identify how a checklist for an accident report should be structured.