• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.65-73
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• 2015

PURPOSES : This study tries to develop the accident models of 4-legged signalized intersections in Busan Metropolitan city with random parameter in count model to understanding the factors mainly influencing on accident frequencies. METHODS : To develop the traffic accidents modeling, this study uses RP(random parameter) negative binomial model which enables to take account of heterogeneity in data. By using RP model, each intersection's specific geometry characteristics were considered. RESULTS : By comparing the both FP(fixed parameter) and RP modeling, it was confirmed the RP model has a little higher explanation power than the FP model. Out of 17 statistically significant variables, 4 variables including traffic volumes on minor roads, pedestrian crossing on major roads, and distance of pedestrian crossing on major/minor roads are derived as having random parameters. In addition, the marginal effect and elasticity of variables are analyzed to understand the variables'impact on the likelihood of accident occurrences. CONCLUSIONS : This study shows that the uses of RP is better fitted to the accident data since each observations'specific characteristics could be considered. Thus, the methods which could consider the heterogeneity of data is recommended to analyze the relationship between accidents and affecting factors(for example, traffic safety facilities or geometrics in signalized 4-legged intersections).

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.141-150
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• 2017

A rapid increase in traffic accidents involving senior vehicle occupants has been an issue in Korea because of the aging of the population occurring at one of the fastest rates in the world; unfortunately, few studies beyond several looking at the effect of senior occupants on the level of accident injury severity can be found in the literature. A Multinomial logit model was estimated with Newton-Raphson algorithm to perform bias-reducing penalized likelihood optimization. Model covariates integral to developing the model were included, but the main focus was on the interaction of seating position and injury to senior vehicle occupants. It was found that the likelihood of an accident resulting in a fatality increased: 2.2 times for the driver seat, 2.7 times for the front passenger seat, and even 6.7 times for the rear seat. A mandatory seatbelt law to be extended to the rear seat needs to pass the assembly as soon as possible, and government, industry, and safety groups should be encouraged to join forces to strongly carry out targeted campaigns for the wearing of seatbelts in all vehicle seats to enhance the safety of senior occupants as well as other occupants who are vulnerable to road traffic accidents.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1996.10a
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• pp.169-172
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• 1996

A modified output error method developed by the authors are presented, and an example of its application on an air accident is shown. In order to obtain the aerodynamic coefficients of an aircraft, the maximum likelihood method and the output error method are often employee However, in the case of an air accident, there is only one flight data available. The newly devised modified output error method by authors seems to have shown fine performance. By employing this method and processing the flight data, unstational aerodynamic coefficients are obtained. The contradiction between the recorded flight data and the circumstantial evidence was reasonably explained.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.1-6
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• 1997

This paper presents a new dynamic approach for assessing feasibility associated with the implementation of accident management strategies by the operators. This approach includes the combined use of both the concept of reliability physics and a dynamic event tree generation scheme. The reliability physics is based on the concept of a comparison between two competing variables, i.e., the requirement and the achievement parameter, while the dynamic event tree generation scheme on the continuous generation of the possible event sequences at every branch point up to the desired solution. This approach is applied to a cavity flooding strategy in a reference plant, which is to supply water into the reactor cavity using emergency fire systems in the station blackout sequence. The MAAP code and Latin Hypercube sampling technique are used to determine the uncertainty of the requirement parameter. It has been demonstrated that this combined methodology may contribute to assessing the success likelihood of the operator actions required during accidents and therefore to developing the accident management procedures.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.153-165
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• 2017

PURPOSES : With the increasing number of older drivers in an aging society, there is a growing need for research and planning on traffic safety for the older drivers using an improved road geometry design. This study also proposed a modified urban road interchange design, which aims to keep the older drivers away from accident-prone and high-traffic areas of the city. METHODS : In this study, we examined accident data records of older drivers to identify accident-prone zones and intersections; we studied the road geometry at these zones and analyzed if it was an underlying cause for higher number of accidents. Based on the research and subsequent analysis, we suggested plans for improvement of road geometry design at these intersections. RESULTS :By studying historic data and analyzing factors that affect the likelihood of accidents of vehicles driven by older drivers and after studying suitable traffic accident prediction models, we identified the major variables that need to be modified at accident-prone intersections, such as the width of a left turn lane at an intersection and the radius of the right turn lane at a street corner. The results have a significance probability of less than 0.001 and a 95% confidence level. To improve safety at the identified intersection, this study suggests the installation of a left-turn-lane-shaped Positive Offset and a right-turn-lane-shaped Slip Lane concept and an adjustment of intervals between intersections.

• Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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• 1997.10a
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• pp.713-718
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• 1997

In the TMI-2 accident, approximately twenty(20) tons of molten core material drained into the lower plenum. Early advanced light water reactor (LWR) designs assumed a lower head failure and incorporated various measures for ex-vessel accident mitigation. However, one of the major findings from the TMI-2 Vessel Investigation Project was that one part of the reactor lower head wall estimated to have attained a temperature of 1100$^{\circ}C$ for about 30 minutes has seemingly experienced a comparatively rapid cooldown with no major threat to the vessel integrity. In this regard, recent empirical and analytical studies have shifted interests to such in-vessel retention designs or strategies as reactor cavity flooding, in-vessel flooding and engineered gap cooling of the vessel Accurate thermohydrodynamic and creep deformation modeling and rupture prediction are the key to the success in developing practically useful in-vessel accident/risk management strategies. As an advanced in-vessel design concept, this work presents the COrium Attack Syndrome Immunization Structures (COASIS) that are being developed as prospective in-vessel retention devices for a next-generation LWR in concert with existing ex-vessel management measures. Both the engineered gap structures in-vessel (COASISI) and ex-vessel (COASISO) are demonstrated to maintain effective heat transfer geometry during molten core debris attack when applied to the Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant(KSNPP) reactor. The likelihood of lower head creep rupture during a severe accident is found to be significantly suppressed by the COASIS options.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.53 no.3
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• pp.741-751
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• 2021

There has been a deep interest in trying to find better-performing fuel clad motivated by the desire to decrease the likelihood of the reactor barrier failure like what happened in Fukushima in recent years. In this study, the effect of move towards accident tolerant fuel (ATF) cladding as the most attracting concept for improving reactor safety is investigated for SMART modular reactor. These reactors have less production cost, short construction time, better safety and higher power density. The SiC and FeCrAl materials are considered as the most potential candidate for ATF cladding, and the results are compared with Zircaloy cladding material from reactor physics point of view. In this paper, the calculations are performed by generating PMAX library by DRAGON lattice physics code to be used for further reactor core analysis by PARCS code. The differential and integral worth of control and safety rods, reactivity coefficient, power and temperature distributions, and boric acid concentration during the cycle are analyzed and compared from the conventional fuel cladding. The rod ejection accident (REA) is also performed to study how the power changed in response to presence of the ATF cladding in the reactor core. The key quantitative finding can be summarized as: 20 ℃ (3%) decrease in average fuel temperature, 33 pcm (3%) increase in integral rod worth and cycle length, 1.26 pcm/℃ (50%) and 1.05 pcm/℃ (16%) increase in reactivity coefficient of fuel and moderator, respectively.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.29-33
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• 2018

Accident likelihood is growing due to a correlation for gas and electricity installed in the area of dense energy consumption like traditional market and underground shopping center. In order to prevent and respond accident risks related to gas and electricity in this area, it should be monitored and predicted for factors of gas leak or electricity by developing safety management system. This study is about accident prediction model development considering fire risk factor related to gas accident. The temperature variation characteristic near a gas burner was analyzed. Also, accident prediction algorithm and related module were developed to prevent fire in the area of dense energy consumption.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.31-40
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• 2013

For the matter of elevator, one of the multi-use facilities for unspecified public, the JIS has re-established and reformed to apply to the environment in South Korea for the past 20 years. In the aspect of safety assurance, it was inevitable to suggest improved measures. The government, Ministry of Public Administration and Security has secured the safety by enhancing the safety management functions in the elevator inspection standards and expanding its safety device measures. Further, the international inspection standard has been introduced, which is about unifying inspection standard system into the international standard code. In March 14th 2012, the international standard (EN) has been amended and fully announced. Escalator and passenger conveyor among lift devices have several common danger factor that cause safety accident. First, the accident caused by decreased braking power of brake. Second, the accident caused by the rate difference between handrail and tread-board. Third, the accident caused by defects of contraflow preventing device or carelessness inspection. Fourth, the accident caused by wet tread-board or wet floor of platform which makes passenger slip and fall. As the improvements to prevent and reduce these negligent accidents, the inspection list to check and methods should be subdivided and applied for each accident likelihood cause for safety management enhancement and safety assurance of existing escalator and passenger conveyors. The escalators and passenger conveyors without safety devices in existence should be obliged to modify the part of the system or install additional safety device. With making these measures obligations, it requires to improve the system to be suitable for the international inspection standard and to have measures to prevent safety accidents. It also needs to arrange improvements for skid accident of tread-board by the external environment factors such as snow and rain.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.19-29
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• 2008

The main purpose of this study is to introduce Hauer's(2004) approach that overcomes current accident prediction models' limitation and to apply this approach to Korean situation using fatal accident data on motorways. After developing accident prediction models according to this approach, it is found that AADT and vertical grade could improve fitness of the model, whereas a radius of roads is not related to the number of accidents. The advantage of Hauer's approach is to reduce possibility to eliminate critical variables and to keep uncritical variables when we consider many variables to develop accident prediction models.