• Title/Summary/Keyword: Wind speed prediction

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Damage of Whole Crop Maize in Abnormal Climate Using Machine Learning (이상기상 시 사일리지용 옥수수의 기계학습을 이용한 피해량 산출)

  • Kim, Ji Yung;Choi, Jae Seong;Jo, Hyun Wook;Kim, Moon Ju;Kim, Byong Wan;Sung, Kyung Il
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.127-136
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    • 2022
  • This study was conducted to estimate the damage of Whole Crop Maize (WCM) according to abnormal climate using machine learning and present the damage through mapping. The collected WCM data was 3,232. The climate data was collected from the Korea Meteorological Administration's meteorological data open portal. Deep Crossing is used for the machine learning model. The damage was calculated using climate data from the Automated Synoptic Observing System (95 sites) by machine learning. The damage was calculated by difference between the Dry matter yield (DMY)normal and DMYabnormal. The normal climate was set as the 40-year of climate data according to the year of WCM data (1978~2017). The level of abnormal climate was set as a multiple of the standard deviation applying the World Meteorological Organization(WMO) standard. The DMYnormal was ranged from 13,845~19,347 kg/ha. The damage of WCM was differed according to region and level of abnormal climate and ranged from -305 to 310, -54 to 89, and -610 to 813 kg/ha bnormal temperature, precipitation, and wind speed, respectively. The maximum damage was 310 kg/ha when the abnormal temperature was +2 level (+1.42 ℃), 89 kg/ha when the abnormal precipitation was -2 level (-0.12 mm) and 813 kg/ha when the abnormal wind speed was -2 level (-1.60 m/s). The damage calculated through the WMO method was presented as an mapping using QGIS. When calculating the damage of WCM due to abnormal climate, there was some blank area because there was no data. In order to calculate the damage of blank area, it would be possible to use the automatic weather system (AWS), which provides data from more sites than the automated synoptic observing system (ASOS).

Analysis of the influence of ship traffic and marine weather information on underwater ambient noise using public data (공공데이터를 활용한 선박 통행량 및 해양기상정보의 수중 주변소음에 대한 영향성 분석)

  • Kim, Yong Guk;Kook, Young Min;Kim, Dong Gwan;Kim, Kyucheol;Youn, Sang Ki;Choi, Chang-Ho;Kim, Hong Kook
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.606-614
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we analyze the influences of ship traffic and marine weather information on underwater ambient noise. Ambient noise is an important environmental factor that greatly affects the detection performance of underwater sonar systems. In order to implement an automated system such as prediction of detection performance using artificial intelligence technology, which has been recently studied, it is necessary to obtain and analyze major data related to these. The main sources of ambient noise have various causes. In the case of sonar systems operating in offshore seas, the detection performance is greatly affected by the noise caused by ship traffic and marine weather. Therefore, in this paper, the impact of each data was analyzed using the measurement results of ambient noise obtained in coastal area of the East Sea of Korea, and public data of nearby ship traffic and ocean weather information. As a result, it was observed that the underwater ambient noise was highly correlated with the change of the ship's traffic volume, and that marine environment factors such as wind speed, wave height, and rainfall had an effect on a specific frequency band.

Evaluation of the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) Index for Digital Fashion Application in Outdoor Environments

  • Kwon, JuYoun;Parsons, Ken
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.23-36
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    • 2017
  • Objective: This paper presents a study to evaluate the WBGT index for assessing the effects of a wide range of outdoor weather conditions on human responses. Background: The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index was firstly developed for the assessment of hot outdoor conditions. It is a recognised index that is used world-wide. It may be useful over a range of outdoor conditions and not just for hot climates. Method: Four group experiments, involving people performing a light stepping activity, were conducted to determine human responses to outside conditions in the U.K. They were conducted in September 2007 (autumn), December 2007 (winter), March 2008 (spring) and June 2008 (summer). Environmental measurements included WBGT, air temperature, radiant temperature (including solar load), humidity and wind speed all measured at 1.2m above the ground, as well as weather data measured by a standard weather station at 3m to 4m above the ground. Participants' physiological and subjective responses were measured. When the overall results of the four seasons are considered, WBGT provided a strong prediction of physiological responses as well as subjective responses if aural temperature, heart rate and sweat production were measured. Results: WBGT is appropriate to predict thermal strain on a large group of ordinary people in moderate conditions. Consideration should be given to include the WBGT index in warning systems for a wide range of weather conditions. However, the WBGT overestimated physiological responses of subjects. In addition, tenfold Borg's RPE was significantly different with heart rate measured for the four conditions except autumn (p<0.05). Physiological and subjective responses over 60 minutes consistently showed a similar tendency in the relationships with the $WBGT_{head}$ and $WBGT_{abdomen}$. Conclusion: It was found that either $WBGT_{head}$ or $WBGT_{abdomen}$ could be measured if a measurement should be conducted at only one height. The relationship between the WBGT values and weather station data was also investigated. There was a significant relationship between WBGT values at the position of a person and weather station data. For UK daytime weather conditions ranging from an average air temperature of $6^{\circ}C$ to $21^{\circ}C$ with mean radiant temperatures of up to $57^{\circ}C$, the WBGT index could be used as a simple thermal index to indicate the effects of weather on people. Application: The result of evaluation of WBGT might help to develop the smart clothing for workers in industrial sites and improve the work environment in terms of considering workers' wellness.

Data Assimilation Effect of Mobile Rawinsonde Observation using Unified Model Observing System Experiment during the Summer Intensive Observation Period in 2013 (2013년 여름철 집중관측동안 통합모델 관측시스템실험을 이용한 이동형 레윈존데 관측의 자료동화 효과)

  • Lim, Yun-Kyu;Song, Sang-Keun;Han, Sang-Ok
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.215-224
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    • 2014
  • Data assimilation effect of mobile rawinsonde observation was evaluated using Unified Model (UM) with a Three-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system during the intensive observation program of 2013 summer season (rainy season: 20 June-7 July 2013, heavy rain period: 8 July-30 July 2013). The analysis was performed by two sets of simulation experiments: (1) ConTroL experiment (CTL) with observation data provided by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and (2) Observing System Experiment (OSE) including both KMA and mobile rawinsonde observation data. In the model verification during the rainy season, there were no distinctive differences for 500 hPa geopotential height, 850 hPa air temperature, and 300 hPa wind speed between CTL and OSE simulation due to data limitation (0000 and 1200 UTC only) at stationary rawinsonde stations. In contrast, precipitation verification using the hourly accumulated precipitation data of Automatic Synoptic Observation System (ASOS) showed that Equivalent Threat Score (ETS) of the OSE was improved by about 2% compared with that of the CTL. For cases having a positive effect of the OSE simulation, ETS of the OSE showed a significantly higher improvement (up to 41%) than that of the CTL. This estimation thus suggests that the use of mobile rawinsonde observation data using UM 3DVAR could be reasonable enough to assess the improvement of prediction accuracy.

Analysis of Building Vulnerabilities to Typhoon Disaster Based on Damage Loss Data (태풍 재해에 대한 건물 취약성의 피해손실 데이터 기반 분석)

  • Ahn, Sung-Jin;Kim, Tae-Hui;Son, Ki-Young;Kim, Ji-Myong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.529-538
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    • 2019
  • Typhoons can cause significant financial damage worldwide. For this reason, states, local governments and insurance companies attempt to quantify and mitigate the financial risks related to these natural disasters by developing a typhoon risk assessment model. As such, the importance of typhoon risk assessment models is increasing, and it is also important to reflect local vulnerabilities to enable sophisticated assessments. Although a practical study of economic losses associated with natural disasters has identified essential risk indicators, comprehensive studies covering the correlation between vulnerability and economic loss are still needed. The purpose of this study is to identify typhoon damage indicators and to develop evaluation indicators for typhoon damage prediction functions, utilizing the loses from Typhoon Maemi as data. This study analyzes actual loss records of Typhoon Maemi provided by local insurance companies to prepare for a scenario of maximum losses. To create a vulnerability function, the authors used the wind speed and distance from the coast and the total value of property, construction type, floors, and underground floor indicators. The results and metrics of this study provide practical guidelines for government agencies and insurance companies in developing vulnerability functions that reflect the actual financial losses and regional vulnerabilities of buildings.

Development of a Oak Pollen Emission and Transport Modeling Framework in South Korea (한반도 참나무 꽃가루 확산예측모델 개발)

  • Lim, Yun-Kyu;Kim, Kyu Rang;Cho, Changbum;Kim, Mijin;Choi, Ho-seong;Han, Mae Ja;Oh, Inbo;Kim, Baek-Jo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.221-233
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    • 2015
  • Pollen is closely related to health issues such as allergenic rhinitis and asthma as well as intensifying atopic syndrome. Information on current and future spatio-temporal distribution of allergenic pollen is needed to address such issues. In this study, the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling (CMAQ) was utilized as a base modeling system to forecast pollen dispersal from oak trees. Pollen emission is one of the most important parts in the dispersal modeling system. Areal emission factor was determined from gridded areal fraction of oak trees, which was produced by the analysis of the tree type maps (1:5000) obtained from the Korea Forest Service. Daily total pollen production was estimated by a robust multiple regression model of weather conditions and pollen concentration. Hourly emission factor was determined from wind speed and friction velocity. Hourly pollen emission was then calculated by multiplying areal emission factor, daily total pollen production, and hourly emission factor. Forecast data from the KMA UM LDAPS (Korea Meteorological Administration Unified Model Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System) was utilized as input. For the verification of the model, daily observed pollen concentration from 12 sites in Korea during the pollen season of 2014. Although the model showed a tendency of over-estimation in terms of the seasonal and daily mean concentrations, overall concentration was similar to the observation. Comparison at the hourly output showed distinctive delay of the peak hours by the model at the 'Pocheon' site. It was speculated that the constant release of hourly number of pollen in the modeling framework caused the delay.

An Object-Based Verification Method for Microscale Weather Analysis Module: Application to a Wind Speed Forecasting Model for the Korean Peninsula (미기상해석모듈 출력물의 정확성에 대한 객체기반 검증법: 한반도 풍속예측모형의 정확성 검증에의 응용)

  • Kim, Hea-Jung;Kwak, Hwa-Ryun;Kim, Sang-il;Choi, Young-Jean
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.1275-1288
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    • 2015
  • A microscale weather analysis module (about 1km or less) is a microscale numerical weather prediction model designed for operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs such as radiant energy, thermal energy, and humidity. The accuracy of the module is directly related to the usefulness and quality of real-time microscale weather information service in the metropolitan area. This paper suggests an object based verification method useful for spatio-temporal evaluation of the accuracy of the microscale weather analysis module. The method is a graphical method comprised of three steps that constructs a lattice field of evaluation statistics, merges and identifies objects, and evaluates the accuracy of the module. We develop lattice fields using various evaluation spatio-temporal statistics as well as an efficient object identification algorithm that conducts convolution, masking, and merging operations to the lattice fields. A real data application demonstrates the utility of the verification method.

Prediction of SWAT Stream Flow Using Only Future Precipitation Data (미래 강수량 자료만을 이용한 SWAT모형의 유출 예측)

  • Lee, Ji Min;Kum, Donghyuk;Kim, Young Sug;Kim, Yun Jung;Kang, Hyunwoo;Jang, Chun Hwa;Lee, Gwan Jae;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.88-96
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    • 2013
  • Much attention has been needed in water resource management at the watershed due to drought and flooding issues caused by climate change in recent years. Increase in air temperature and changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change are affecting hydrologic cycles, such as evaporation and soil moisture. Thus, these phenomena result in increased runoff at the watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been used to evaluate rainfall-runoff at the watershed reflecting effects on hydrology of various weather data such as rainfall, temperature, humidity, solar radiation, wind speed. For bias-correction of RCP data, at least 30 year data are needed. However, for most gaging stations, only precipitation data have been recorded and very little stations have recorded other weather data. In addition, the RCP scenario does not provide all weather data for the SWAT model. In this study, two scenarios were made to evaluate whether it would be possible to estimate streamflow using measured precipitation and long-term average values of other weather data required for running the SWAT. With measured long-term weather data (scenario 1) and with long-term average values of weather data except precipitation (scenario 2), the estimate streamflow values were almost the same with NSE value of 0.99. Increase/decrease by ${\pm}2%$, ${\pm}4%$ in temperature and humidity data did not affect streamflow. Thus, the RCP precipitation data for Hongcheon watershed were bias-corrected with measured long-term precipitation data to evaluate effects of climate change on streamflow. The results revealed that estimated streamflow for 2055s was the greatest among data for 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s. However, estimated streamflow for 2085s decreased by 9%. In addition, streamflow for Spring would be expected to increase compared with current data and streamflow for Summer will be decreased with RCP data. The results obtained in this study indicate that the streamflow could be estimated with long-term precipitation data only and effects of climate change could be evaluated using precipitation data as shown in this study.

Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of PV Power Forecasting for Evaluation and Selection of Suitable PV Sites (태양광 발전소 건설부지 평가 및 선정을 위한 선형회귀분석 기반 태양광 발전량 추정 모델)

  • Heo, Jae;Park, Bumsoo;Kim, Byungil;Han, SangUk
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.126-131
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    • 2019
  • The estimation of available solar energy at particular locations is critical to find and assess suitable locations of PV sites. The amount of PV power generation is however affected by various geographical factors (e.g., weather), which may make it difficult to identify the complex relationship between affecting factors and power outputs and to apply findings from one study to another in different locations. This study thus undertakes a regression analysis using data collected from 172 PV plants spatially distributed in Korea to identify critical weather conditions and estimate the potential power generation of PV systems. Such data also include solar radiation, precipitation, fine dust, humidity, temperature, cloud amount, sunshine duration, and wind speed. The estimated PV power generation is then compared to the actual PV power generation to evaluate prediction performance. As a result, the proposed model achieves a MAPE of 11.696(%) and an R-squred of 0.979. It is also found that the variables, excluding humidity, are all statistically significant in predicting the efficiency of PV power generation. According, this study may facilitate the understanding of what weather conditions can be considered and the estimation of PV power generation for evaluating and determining suitable locations of PV facilities.

Prediction of Damages and Evacuation Strategies for Gas Leaks from Chlorine Transport Vehicles (염소 운송차량 가스누출시 피해예측 및 대피방안)

  • Yang, Yong-Ho;Kong, Ha-Sung
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.407-417
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    • 2024
  • The objective of this study is to predict and reduce potential damage caused by chlorine gas leaks, a hazardous material, when vehicles transporting it overturn due to accidents or other incidents. The goal is to forecast the anticipated damages caused by chlorine toxicity levels (ppm) and to design effective response strategies for mitigating them. To predict potential damages, we conducted quantitative assessments using the ALOHA program to calculate the toxic effects (ppm) and damage distances resulting from chlorine leaks, taking into account potential negligence of drivers during transportation. The extent of damage from toxic gas leaks is influenced by various factors, including the amount of the leaked hazardous material and the meteorological conditions at the time of the leak. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of damage distances was conducted by examining various scenarios that involved variations in the amount of leakage and weather conditions. Under intermediate conditions (leakage quantity: 5 tons, wind speed: 3 m/s, atmospheric stability: D), the estimated distance for exceeding the AEGL-2 level of 2 ppm was calculated to be 9 km. This concentration poses a high risk of respiratory disturbance and potential human casualties, comparable to the toxicity of hydrogen chloride. In particular, leaks in urban areas can lead to significant loss of life. In the event of a leakage incident, we proposed a plan to minimize damage by implementing appropriate response strategies based on the location and amount of the leak when an accident occurs.