• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weibull distribution model

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A Study on the Reliability Prediction about ECM of Packaging Substrate PCB by Using Accelerated Life Test (가속수명시험을 이용한 Packaging Substrate PCB의 ECM에 대한 신뢰성 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Dae-Joong;Lee, Hwa-Ki
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.109-120
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    • 2013
  • As information-oriented industry has been developed and electronic devices has come to be smaller, lighter, multifunctional, and high speed, the components used to the devices need to be much high density and should have find pattern due to high integration. Also, diverse reliability problems happen as user environment is getting harsher. For this reasons, establishing and securing products and components reliability comes to key factor in company's competitiveness. It makes accelerated test important to check product reliability in fast way. Out of fine pattern failure modes, failure of Electrochemical Migration(ECM) is kind of degradation of insulation resistance by electro-chemical reaction, which it comes to be accelerated by biased voltage in high temperature and high humidity environment. In this thesis, the accelerated life test for failure caused by ECM on fine pattern substrate, $20/20{\mu}m$ pattern width/space applied by Semi Additive Process, was performed, and through this test, the investigation of failure mechanism and the life-time prediction evaluation under actual user environment was implemented. The result of accelerated test has been compared and estimated with life distribution and life stress relatively by using Minitab software and its acceleration rate was also tested. Through estimated weibull distribution, B10 life has been estimated under 95% confidence level of failure data happened in each test conditions. And the life in actual usage environment has been predicted by using generalized Eyring model considering temperature and humidity by developing Arrhenius reaction rate theory, and acceleration factors by test conditions have been calculated.

Temperature-dependent developmental models and fertility life table of the potato aphid Macrosiphum euphorbiae Thomas on eggplant (감자수염진딧물(Macrosiphum euphorbiae Thomas)의 온도발육모형과 출산생명표)

  • Jeon, Sung-Wook;Kim, Kang-Hyeok;Lee, Sang Guei;Lee, Yong Hwan;Park, Se Keun;Kang, Wee Soo;Park, Bueyong;Kim, Kwang-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.568-578
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    • 2019
  • The nymphal development of the potato aphid, Macrosiphum euphorbiae (Thomas), was studied at seven constant temperatures (12.5, 15.0, 17.5, 20.0, 22.5, 25.0, and 27.5±1℃), 65±5% relative humidity (RH), and 16:8 h light/dark photoperiods. The developmental investigation of M. euphorbiae was separated into two steps, the 1st through 2nd and the 3rd through 4th stages. The mortality was under 10% at six temperatures. However, it was 53.0% at 27.5℃. The developmental time of the entire nymph stage was 15.5 days at 15.0℃, 6.7 days at 25.0℃, and 9.7 days at 27.5℃. In the immature stage, the lower threshold temperature of the larvae was 2.6℃ and the thermal constant was 144.5 DD. In our analysis of the temperature-development experiment, the Logan-6 model equation was most appropriate for the non-linear regression models (r2=0.99). When the distribution completion model of each development stage of M. euphorbiae larvae was applied to the 2-parameter and 3-parameter Weibull functions, each of the model's goodness of fit was very similar (r2=0.92 and 0.93, respectively). The adult longevity decreased as the temperature increased but the total fecundity of the females at each temperature was highest at 20℃. The life table parameters were calculated using the whole lifespan periods of M. euphorbiae at the above six temperatures. The net reproduction rate (R0) was highest at 20.0℃(63.2). The intrinsic rate of increase (rm) was highest at 25℃(1.393). The finite rate of doubling time (Dt) was the shortest at 25.0℃(2.091). The finite rate of increase (λ) was also the highest at 25.0℃(1.393). The mean generation time(T) was the shortest at 25.0℃(9.929).

Rapid response calculation of LNG cargo containment system under sloshing load using wavelet transformation

  • Kim, Yooil
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.227-245
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    • 2013
  • Reliable strength assessment of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) cargo containment system under the sloshing impact load is very difficult task due to the complexity of the physics involved in, both in terms of the hydrodynamics and structural mechanics. Out of all those complexities, the proper selection of the design sloshing load which is applied to the structural model of the LNG cargo containment system, is one of the most challenging one due to its inherent randomness as well as the statistical analysis which is tightly linked to the design sloshing load selection. In this study, the response based strength assessment procedure of LNG cargo containment system has been developed and proposed as an alternative design methodology. Sloshing pressure time history, measured from the model test, is decomposed into wavelet basis function targeting the minimization of the number of the basis function together with the maximization of the numerical efficiency. Then the response of the structure is obtained using the finite element method under each wavelet basis function of different scale. Finally, the response of the structure under entire sloshing impact time history is rapidly calculated by synthesizing the structural response under wavelet basis function. Through this analysis, more realistic response of the system under sloshing impact pressure can be obtained without missing the details of pressure time history such as rising pattern, oscillation due to air entrapment and decay pattern and so on. The strength assessment of the cargo containment system is then performed based on the statistical analysis of the stress peaks selected out of the obtained stress time history.

The Temperature-Dependent Development of the Parasitoid Fly, Exorista Japonica (Townsend) (Diptera: Tachinidae) (항온조건에서 긴등기생파리 [Exorista japonica (Townsend)] (Diptera: Tachinidae) 온도별 발육)

  • Park, Chang-Gyu;Seo, Bo Yoon;Choi, Byeong-Ryoel
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.445-452
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    • 2016
  • Exorista japonica is one of the major natural enemies of noctuid larvae, Mythimna separata and Spodoptera litura. The examined parasitoid was obtained from host species M. separata, collected at Gimje city and identified by DNA sequences (partial cytochrome oxidase I, 16S, 18S, and 28S). For purposed of this study, laboratory reared S. litura served as the host species for the development of the E. japonica. The developmental period of E. japonica immature stages were investigated at seven constant temperatures (16, 19, 22, 25, 28, 31, $34{\pm}1^{\circ}C$, RH 20~30%). Temperature-dependent developmental rates and development completion models were developed. E. japonica was successfully developed from egg to adult in $16{\sim}31^{\circ}C$ temperature regimes. Developmental duration was the shortest at $34^{\circ}C$ (8.3 days) and the longest at $16^{\circ}C$ (23.4 days) from egg to pupa development. Pupal development duration was the shortest at $28^{\circ}C$ (7.3 days). Total immature-stage development duration decreased with increasing temperature, and was the shortest at $31^{\circ}C$ (16.3 days) and the longest at $16^{\circ}C$ (45.4 days). The lower developmental threshold was $7.8^{\circ}C$ and thermal constant required to complete total immature-stage development was 370.4 degree days. Among four non-linear temperature-dependent developmental rate models, Briere 1 model had the highest adjusted R-squared (0.96). The distribution model of development completion for total immature stage development of E. japonica was well described by all model ($r^2_{adj}=0.90$) based on the standardized development duration. These results of study would be necessary not only to develop population dynamics model but also to understand fundamental biology of E. japonica.

Temperature-dependent Development Model and Forecasting of Adult Emergence of Overwintered Small Brown Planthopper, Laodelphax striatellus Fallen, Population (애멸구 온도 발육 모델과 월동 개체군의 성충 발생 예측)

  • Park, Chang-Gyu;Park, Hong-Hyun;Kim, Kwang-Ho
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.343-352
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    • 2011
  • The developmental period of Laodelphax striatellus Fallen, a vector of rice stripe virus (RSV), was investigated at ten constant temperatures from 12.5 to $35{\pm}1^{\circ}C$ at 30 to 40% RH, and a photoperiod of 14:10 (L:D) h. Eggs developed successfully at each temperature tested and their developmental time decreased as temperature increased. Egg development was fasted at $35^{\circ}C$(5.8 days), and slowest at $12.5^{\circ}C$ (44.5 days). Nymphs could not develop to the adult stage at 32.5 or $35^{\circ}C$. The mean total developmental time of nymphal stages at 12.5, 15, 17.5, 20, 22.5, 25, 27.5 and $30^{\circ}C$ were 132.7, 55.9, 37.7, 26.9, 20.2, 15.8, 14.9 and 17.4 days, respectively. One linear model and four nonlinear models (Briere 1, Lactin 2, Logan 6 and Poikilotherm rate) were used to determine the response of developmental rate to temperature. The lower threshold temperatures of egg and total nymphal stage of L. striatellus were $10.2^{\circ}C$ and $10.7^{\circ}C$, respectively. The thermal constants (degree-days) for eggs and nymphs were 122.0 and 238.1DD, respectively. Among the four nonlinear models, the Poikilotherm rate model had the best fit for all developmental stages ($r^2$=0.98~0.99). The distribution of completion of each development stage was well described by the two-parameter Weibull function ($r^2$=0.84~0.94). The emergence rate of L. striatellus adults using DYMEX$^{(R)}$ was predicted under the assumption that the physiological age of over-wintered nymphs was 0.2 and that the Poikilotherm rate model was applied to describe temperature-dependent development. The result presented higher predictability than other conditions.

Field data analyses for products with multiple-modes of failure (고장원인이 여럿인 제품의 사용현장 데이터 분석)

  • 배도선;최인수;황용근
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.89-104
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    • 1995
  • This paper is concerned with the method of estimating lifetime distributin from field data for products with multiple modes of failure. When product failures occur within warranty period, a manufacturer can obtain failure-record data; failure times, causes of failure, and covariates. Since these data are seriously incomplete for satisfactory inference, that is, only failures occured during warrantly period may be recorded, it is usually necessary to incoporate the failure-record data by taking a supplementary sample of items obtained following up a portion of products that survive warranty time. The log linear function is considered as a model for describing the relation between failure time of a product and covariates. General methods for obtaining pseudo maximum likelihood estimators(PMLEs) for the parameters are outlined and their asymptotic properties are studied, and specific formulas for exponential or Weibull distribution are obtained. Effects of follow-up percentage on the PMLEs are investigated. Extensions to calendar time warranty or calendar and obtaining time warranty are also considered.

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Failure Mechanism Analysis of SAW Device under RF High Power Stress (RF 고전력 스트레스에 의한 SAW Device의 고장메카니즘 분석)

  • Kim, Young-Goo;Kim, Tae-Hong
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.215-221
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, the improved power durability test system and method for an reliability analysis of SAW device is proposed and the failure mechanism through failure analysis is analyzed. As a result of the failure analysis using microscope, SEM and EDX, the failure mechanism of the SAW device is electromigration due to joule heating under high current density and high temperature condition. The electromigration makes voids and hillocks in the IDT electrode and the voids and hillocks can lead to short circuit and open circuit faults, respectively, increasing the insertion loss of an SAW filter. The accelerated life testing of the SAW filter for 450MHz CDMA application using the proposed power durability test system and method is carried out. $B_{10}$ lifetime of the SAW filter using Eyring model and Weibull distribution is estimated as about 98,500 hours.

Application of Cox and Parametric Survival Models to Assess Social Determinants of Health Affecting Three-Year Survival of Breast Cancer Patients

  • Mohseny, Maryam;Amanpour, Farzaneh;Mosavi-Jarrahi, Alireza;Jafari, Hossein;Moradi-Joo, Mohammad;Monfared, Esmat Davoudi
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.sup3
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    • pp.311-316
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    • 2016
  • Breast cancer is one of the most common causes of cancer mortality in Iran. Social determinants of health are among the key factors affecting the pathogenesis of diseases. This cross-sectional study aimed to determine the social determinants of breast cancer survival time with parametric and semi-parametric regression models. It was conducted on male and female patients diagnosed with breast cancer presenting to the Cancer Research Center of Shohada-E-Tajrish Hospital from 2006 to 2010. The Cox proportional hazard model and parametric models including the Weibull, log normal and log-logistic models were applied to determine the social determinants of survival time of breast cancer patients. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to assess the best fit. Statistical analysis was performed with STATA (version 11) software. This study was performed on 797 breast cancer patients, aged 25-93 years with a mean age of 54.7 (${\pm}11.9$) years. In both semi-parametric and parametric models, the three-year survival was related to level of education and municipal district of residence (P<0.05). The AIC suggested that log normal distribution was the best fit for the three-year survival time of breast cancer patients. Social determinants of health such as level of education and municipal district of residence affect the survival of breast cancer cases. Future studies must focus on the effect of childhood social class on the survival times of cancers, which have hitherto only been paid limited attention.

Prognostic factors for survival of dogs infected with canine parvovirus

  • Pak, Son-il;Hwang, Cheol-young;Han, Hong-ryul
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.838-845
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    • 1999
  • To determine the prognostic factors for survival of dogs infected with canine parvovirus, clinical and laboratory data of 35 dogs with clinical signs compatible with canine parvoviral enteritis admitted to the Veterinary Medical Teaching Hospital, Seoul National University during the period 1997-1998 were collected. Dogs were grouped by some major covariates, which can be considered as guides to the relative prognosis of dogs in the different subgroups. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Weibull proportional hazard model were used to estimate overall survival, evaluate the comparability between groups, and identify potential prognostic factors. The overall survival rate for all dogs was 45.7% over the study period, and the Kaplan-Meier estimate of one week survival was 0.4989. Gender was the most favorable prognosis ; male dog (median, 6 days) had significantly higher risk of dying than female dog (median, 17 days ; p = 0.0023). In addition to gender, age was significantly associated with survival, with juvenile dogs less than 6-month-old having higher risk (p = 0.0359). Dogs that vaccinated with complete protocol (p = 0.0374) and those of having higher value of mean corpuscular volume (p = 0.0346) were found to be of prognostic importance. The 7 dogs in which white blood cell count of less than 2000 had shorter median survival time (3 days) than the remaining 28 dogs (8 days), but no statistical significance was found between leukopenic and survival. The distribution of packed cell volume and hemoglobin measurement was such that the overall risk of dying in the two groups was comparable. Further studies are needed to more accurately assess these results.

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Offshore Wind Resource Assessment around Korean Peninsula by using QuikSCAT Satellite Data (QuikSCAT 위성 데이터를 이용한 한반도 주변의 해상 풍력자원 평가)

  • Jang, Jea-Kyung;Yu, Byoung-Min;Ryu, Ki-Wahn;Lee, Jun-Shin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.37 no.11
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    • pp.1121-1130
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    • 2009
  • In order to investigate the offshore wind resources, the measured data from the QuikSCAT satellite was analyzed from Jan 2000 to Dec 2008. QuikSCAT satellite is a specialized device for a microwave scatterometer that measures near-surface wind speed and direction under all weather and cloud conditions. Wind speed measured at 10 m above from the sea surface was extrapolated to the hub height by using the power law model. It has been found that the high wind energy prevailing in the south sea and the east sea of the Korean peninsula. From the limitation of seawater depth for piling the tower and archipelagic environment around the south sea, the west and the south-west sea are favorable to construct the large scale offshore wind farm, but it needs efficient blade considering relatively low wind speed. Wind map and monthly variation of wind speed and wind rose using wind energy density were investigated at the specified positions.