• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weather Index

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Analysis of Hazardous Fog and Index Development in Korea (도로상 위험안개의 특징분석 및 발생지표의 개발)

  • 조혜진
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.478-489
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    • 2003
  • The existing researches related to the fog have focused on mainly the fog itself and its spatial variation. This study defined the hazardous fog as the fog with visibility under 500 m which caused the severe dangerous situation on roads and might cause traffic accident due to insufficient visibility. This study aimed to develop the hazardous fog index which quantified the degree of danger and included frequency of fog, visibility and its duration. We applied the index to 3 years weather station data in Korea and the results showed the distribution of the hazardous fog and their priority in terms of safety management. This was the first study that introduced the fog index in Korea and that quantified the degree of hazardous fog. These application results were useful for identifying the dangerous area due to hazardous fog and contributing to ensure the safety of eventual road users and road authorities.

A Study on the Analysis of Freezing Soil by Frost Groups and Frost Depth in Korea (우리나라 동결토의 토군별 분석과 동결심도에 관한 연구)

  • 정철호
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.5-16
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    • 1989
  • This paper statistically analyses the freezing soil by frost group and frost depth in Korea with data from soil testing in the Korea National Housing Corporation, the climate data provided by the Central Weather Office and the data on the frost depth from the National Construction Laboratory Institute. In this paper, freezing variable are analysed such as percentage finer than 0.02 m by weight, plasticity index, freezing index, water contents of soil and frost depth etc‥‥ The result of the analysis is as follows. 1) The frost depth of Korea depends on the properties of soil rather thank the characte fistic of area. 2) The distribution map of design freezing index in 57 cities is drawn up with the maxi- mum freezing index, during past 14 years, calculated by the average of the air temperature observed four times(03 : 00.09 00, 15 : 00, 21 : 00) a day. 3) By correcting the OLS line estimated from the relationship between freezing index and frost depth, a method of utlizing the line with the upper confidence limit of 99.9% int-distribution as predicted maximum frost depth is newly introduced.

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Aviation Convective Index for Deep Convective Area using the Global Unified Model of the Korean Meteorological Administration, Korea: Part 1. Development and Statistical Evaluation (안전한 항공기 운항을 위한 현업 전지구예보모델 기반 깊은 대류 예측 지수: Part 1. 개발 및 통계적 검증)

  • Yi-June Park;Jung-Hoon Kim
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.519-530
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    • 2023
  • Deep convection can make adverse effects on safe and efficient aviation operations by causing various weather hazards such as convectively-induced turbulence, icing, lightning, and downburst. To prevent such damage, it is necessary to accurately predict spatiotemporal distribution of deep convective area near the airport and airspace. This study developed a new index, the Aviation Convective Index (ACI), for deep convection, using the operational global Unified Model of the Korea Meteorological Administration. The ACI was computed from combination of three different variables: 3-hour maximum of Convective Available Potential Energy, averaged Outgoing Longwave Radiation, and accumulative precipitation using the fuzzy logic algorithm. In this algorithm, the individual membership function was newly developed following the cumulative distribution function for each variable in Korean Peninsula. This index was validated and optimized by using the 1-yr period of radar mosaic data. According to the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve (AUC) and True Skill Score (TSS), the yearly optimized ACI (ACIYrOpt) based on the optimal weighting coefficients for 1-yr period shows a better skill than the no optimized one (ACINoOpt) with the uniform weights. In all forecast time from 6-hour to 48-hour, the AUC and TSS value of ACIYrOpt were higher than those of ACINoOpt, showing the improvement of averaged value of AUC and TSS by 1.67% and 4.20%, respectively.

Difference of Growth and Yield among Rice Cultivars and Direct Seeding Methods as Affected by Yearly Variation Weather (연차간 기상조건에 따른 벼 품종의 담수직파재배 양식간 생육 및 수량)

  • Choi, Weon-Young;Kang, Si-Yong;Lee, Jeong-Taek
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.229-235
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    • 1999
  • To identify the differences on plant growth and yield of two rice cultivars among direct water-seeding methods broadcasting on flooded paddy surface(BF), drilling on flooded paddy surface(DF), and puddled-soil drill seeding(PD) under markedly different weather condition between 1995 and 1996. The mean air temperature for duration from May to June, early growth stage of rice in 1995 was lower $1{\sim}3^{\circ}C$ than that in normal or 1996. In 1995 the respiratory consumption index during panicle formation stage and early ripening stage was higher than those of in 1996 or normal year. Number of seedling stand among the methods of direct seeding rice appeared slightly higher in order of BF>DF>PD. Properly in Nonganbyeo, the number of seedling stand was much low in 1995 compared with in 1996. The leaf area index and shoot dry weight at early growth stage of rice plant and culm length at mature in 1995 were larger in direct water seeding rice than those of machanical transplanting rice, but in 1996. Faster ripening speed and shorter ripening period of rice crop appeared in 1996 compared to in 1995. It was due to higher growing degree-days, sunshine hours and solar radiation during rice growing season in 1996. Dongjinbyeo rice showed higher yield than Nonganbyeo which had lower ripened grains especially in 1995.

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Development of Naïve-Bayes classification and multiple linear regression model to predict agricultural reservoir storage rate based on weather forecast data (기상예보자료 기반의 농업용저수지 저수율 전망을 위한 나이브 베이즈 분류 및 다중선형 회귀모형 개발)

  • Kim, Jin Uk;Jung, Chung Gil;Lee, Ji Wan;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.10
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    • pp.839-852
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to predict monthly agricultural reservoir storage by developing weather data-based Multiple Linear Regression Model (MLRM) with precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature, and average wind speed. Using Naïve-Bayes classification, total 1,559 nationwide reservoirs were classified into 30 clusters based on geomorphological specification (effective storage volume, irrigation area, watershed area, latitude, longitude and frequency of drought). For each cluster, the monthly MLRM was derived using 13 years (2002~2014) meteorological data by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and reservoir storage rate data by KRC (Korea Rural Community). The MLRM for reservoir storage rate showed the determination coefficient ($R^2$) of 0.76, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.73, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 8.33% respectively. The MLRM was evaluated for 2 years (2015~2016) using 3 months weather forecast data of GloSea5 (GS5) by KMA. The Reservoir Drought Index (RDI) that was represented by present and normal year reservoir storage rate showed that the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) average hit rate was 0.80 using observed data and 0.73 using GS5 data in the MLRM. Using the results of this study, future reservoir storage rates can be predicted and used as decision-making data on stable future agricultural water supply.

Rainfall Intensity Estimation Using Geostationary Satellite Data Based on Machine Learning: A Case Study in the Korean Peninsula in Summer (정지 궤도 기상 위성을 이용한 기계 학습 기반 강우 강도 추정: 한반도 여름철을 대상으로)

  • Shin, Yeji;Han, Daehyeon;Im, Jungho
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.5_3
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    • pp.1405-1423
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    • 2021
  • Precipitation is one of the main factors that affect water and energy cycles, and its estimation plays a very important role in securing water resources and timely responding to water disasters. Satellite-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) has the advantage of covering large areas at high spatiotemporal resolution. In this study, machine learning-based rainfall intensity models were developed using Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) water vapor channel (6.7 ㎛), infrared channel (10.8 ㎛), and weather radar Column Max (CMAX) composite data based on random forest (RF). The target variables were weather radar reflectivity (dBZ) and rainfall intensity (mm/hr) converted by the Z-R relationship. The results showed that the model which learned CMAX reflectivity produced the Critical Success Index (CSI) of 0.34 and the Mean-Absolute-Error (MAE) of 4.82 mm/hr. When compared to the GeoKompsat-2 and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN)-Cloud Classification System (CCS) rainfall intensity products, the accuracies improved by 21.73% and 10.81% for CSI, and 31.33% and 23.49% for MAE, respectively. The spatial distribution of the estimated rainfall intensity was much more similar to the radar data than the existing products.

An Assessment of Applicability of Heat Waves Using Extreme Forecast Index in KMA Climate Prediction System (GloSea5) (기상청 현업 기후예측시스템(GloSea5)에서의 극한예측지수를 이용한 여름철 폭염 예측 성능 평가)

  • Heo, Sol-Ip;Hyun, Yu-Kyung;Ryu, Young;Kang, Hyun-Suk;Lim, Yoon-Jin;Kim, Yoonjae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.257-267
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    • 2019
  • This study is to assess the applicability of the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) algorithm of the ECMWF seasonal forecast system to the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5), operational seasonal forecast system of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The EFI is based on the difference between Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) curves of the model's climate data and the current ensemble forecast distribution, which is essential to diagnose the predictability in the extreme cases. To investigate its applicability, the experiment was conducted during the heat-wave cases (the year of 1994 and 2003) and compared GloSea5 hindcast data based EFI with anomaly data of ERA-Interim. The data also used to determine quantitative estimates of Probability Of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), and spatial pattern correlation. The results showed that the area of ERA-Interim indicating above 4-degree temperature corresponded to the area of EFI 0.8 and above. POD showed high ratio (0.7 and 0.9, respectively), when ERA-Interim anomaly data were the highest (on Jul. 11, 1994 (> $5^{\circ}C$) and Aug. 8, 2003 (> $7^{\circ}C$), respectively). The spatial pattern showed a high correlation in the range of 0.5~0.9. However, the correlation decreased as the lead time increased. Furthermore, the case of Korea heat wave in 2018 was conducted using GloSea5 forecast data to validate EFI showed successful prediction for two to three weeks lead time. As a result, the EFI forecasts can be used to predict the probability that an extreme weather event of interest might occur. Overall, we expected these results to be available for extreme weather forecasting.

Comparison and Analysis of Drought Index based on MODIS Satellite Images and ASOS Data for Gyeonggi-Do (경기도 지역에 대한 MODIS 위성영상 및 지점자료기반 가뭄지수의 비교·분석)

  • Yu-Jin, KANG;Hung-Soo, KIM;Dong-Hyun, KIM;Won-Joon, WANG;Han-Eul, LEE;Min-Ho, SEO;Yun-Jae, CHOUNG
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2022
  • Currently, the Korea Meteorological Administration evaluates the meteorological drought by region using SPI6(standardized precipitation index 6), which is a 6-month cumulative precipitation standard. However, SPI is an index calculated only in consideration of precipitation at 69 weather stations, and the drought phenomenon that appears for complex reasons cannot be accurately determined. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to calculate and compare SPI considering only precipitation and SDCI (Scaled Drought Condition Index) considering precipitation, vegetation index, and temperature in Gyeonggi. In addition, the advantages and disadvantages of the station data-based drought index and the satellite image-based drought index were identified by using results calculated through the comparison of SPI and SDCI. MODIS(MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite image data, ASOS(Automated Synoptic Observing System) data, and kriging were used to calculate SDCI. For the duration of precipitation, SDCI1, SDCI3, and SDCI6 were calculated by applying 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month respectively to the 8 points in 2014. As a result of calculating the SDCI, unlike the SPI, drought patterns began to appear about 2-month ago, and drought by city and county in Gyeonggi was well revealed. Through this, it was found that the combination of satellite image data and station data increased efficiency in the pattern of drought index change, and increased the possibility of drought prediction in wet areas along with existing dry areas.

Rainfall Variations of Temporal Characteristics of Korea Using Rainfall Indicators (강수지표를 이용한 우리나라 강수량의 시간적인 특성 변화)

  • Hong, Seong-Hyun;Kim, Young-Gyu;Lee, Won-Hyun;Chung, Eun-Sung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.393-407
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    • 2012
  • This study suggests the results of temporal and spatial variations for rainfall data in the Korean Peninsula. We got the index of the rainfall amount, frequency and extreme indices from 65 weather stations. The results could be easily understood by drawing the graph, and the Mann-Kendall trend analysis was also used to determine the tendency (up & downward/no trend) of rainfall and temperature where the trend could not be clear. Moreover, by using the FARD, frequency probability rainfalls could be calculated for 100 and 200 years and then compared each other value through the moment method, maximum likelihood method and probability weighted moments. The Average Rainfall Index (ARI) which is meant comprehensive rainfalls risk for the flood could be obtained from calculating an arithmetic mean of the RI for Amount (RIA), RI for Extreme (RIE), and RI for Frequency (RIF) and as well as the characteristics of rainfalls have been mainly classified into Amount, Extremes, and Frequency. As a result, these each Average Rainfall Indices could be increased respectively into 22.3%, 26.2%, and 5.1% for a recent decade. Since this study showed the recent climate change trend in detail, it will be useful data for the research of climate change adaptation.

Drought evaluation using unstructured data: a case study for Boryeong area (비정형 데이터를 활용한 가뭄평가 - 보령지역을 중심으로 -)

  • Jung, Jinhong;Park, Dong-Hyeok;Ahn, Jaehyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.12
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    • pp.1203-1210
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    • 2020
  • Drought is caused by a combination of various hydrological or meteorological factor, so it is difficult to accurately assess drought event, but various drought indices have been developed to interpret them quantitatively. However, the drought indexes currently being used are calculated from the lack of a single variable, which is a problem that does not accurately determine the drought event caused by complex causes. Shortage of a single variable may not be a drought, but it is judged to be a drought. On the other hand, research on developing indices using unstructured data, which is widely used in big data analysis, is being carried out in other fields and proven to be superior. Therefore, in this study, we intend to calculate the drought index by combining unstructured data (news data) with weather and hydrologic information (rainfall and dam inflow) that are being used for the existing drought index, and to evaluate the utilization of drought interpretation through verification of the calculated drought index. The Clayton Copula function was used to calculate the joint drought index, and the parameter estimation was used by the calibration method. The analysis showed that the drought index, which combines unstructured data, properly expresses the drought period compared to the existing drought index (SPI, SDI). In addition, ROC scores were calculated higher than existing drought indices, making them more useful in drought interpretation. The joint drought index calculated in this study is considered highly useful in that it complements the analytical limits of the existing single variable drought index and provides excellent utilization of the drought index using unstructured data.