• Title/Summary/Keyword: Voting Patterns

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Proximity based Circular Visualization for similarity analysis of voting patterns between nations in UN General Assembly (UN 국가의 투표 성향 유사도 분석을 위한 Proximity based Circular 시각화 연구)

  • Choi, Han Min;Mun, Seong Min;Ha, Hyo Ji;Lee, Kyung Won
    • Design Convergence Study
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.133-150
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    • 2015
  • In this study, we proposed Interactive Visualization methods that can be analyzed relations between nations in various viewpoints such as period, issue using total 5211 of the UN General Assembly voting data.For this research, we devised a similarity matrix between nations and developed two visualization method based similarity matrix. The first one is Network Graph Visualization that can be showed relations between nations which participated in the vote of the UN General Assembly like Social Network Graph by year. and the second one is Proximity based Circular Visualization that can be analyzed relations between nations focus on one nation or Changes in voting patterns between nations according to time. This study have a great signification. that's because we proposed Proximity based Circular Visualization methods which merged Line and Circle Graph for network analysis that never tried from other cases of studies that utilize conventional voting data and made it. We also derived co-operatives of each visualization through conducting a comparative experiment for the two visualization. As a research result, we found that Proximity based Circular Visualization can be better analysis each node and Network Graph Visualization can be better analysis patterns for the nations.

The Role of Timing and Presidential Popularity in Local Elections: Upheaval in the 2018 Busan City Council Election

  • Jenkins, Matthew D.;Bae, Jin Seok
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.223-258
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    • 2022
  • The 2018 local elections completely upended the composition of Busan's city council, with the council membership changing from being solidly and consistently conservative to being over 80% liberal. What explains this anomalous outcome? While existing literature suggests the outcome of the 2018 city council elections was the consequence of a combination of structural and strategic factors, such as the decline of regional voting, we argue that the individual-level evaluation of President Moon Jae-in is one of the primary factors driving this result. Although coattails effects are commonly considered in concurrent national legislative elections, the Presidentialized and nationalized politics of Korea makes it possible for Presidential elections to affect local elections as well. We assess our explanation through an analysis of repeated cross-sectional survey data collected just before the 2018 local elections. The results of the analysis show that support for the Democratic Party is very strongly predicted by individual-level evaluation of President Moon. When considered in the context of the timing of presidential and local elections, the results suggest that Presidential coattail effects are capable of destabilizing established political patterns, such as regional voting, if perhaps only in a sporadic and idiosyncratic fashion, depending on whether or not local elections are held early on in a President's term.

Voter Perceptions and Behavior in East Asian Mixed Systems

  • Rich, Timothy S.
    • Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.21-34
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    • 2013
  • How do mixed legislative systems shape voter behavior and public perceptions? Through an analysis of the electoral systems in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, this paper evaluates the extent to which the public in these three countries understand their mixed systems and whether claims of voter ignorance translate into irrational voting behavior based on the institutional effects of mixed systems. Through a multi-method approach including data from outside of East Asia, this analysis seeks to determine whether these three cases exhibit patterns consistent with other mixed systems. Empirical analysis affirms levels of strategic voting consistent with comprehension of electoral rules. Furthermore, this analysis suggests a disconnect between practical knowledge and electoral expectations.

Issue tracking and voting rate prediction for 19th Korean president election candidates (댓글 분석을 통한 19대 한국 대선 후보 이슈 파악 및 득표율 예측)

  • Seo, Dae-Ho;Kim, Ji-Ho;Kim, Chang-Ki
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.199-219
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    • 2018
  • With the everyday use of the Internet and the spread of various smart devices, users have been able to communicate in real time and the existing communication style has changed. Due to the change of the information subject by the Internet, data became more massive and caused the very large information called big data. These Big Data are seen as a new opportunity to understand social issues. In particular, text mining explores patterns using unstructured text data to find meaningful information. Since text data exists in various places such as newspaper, book, and web, the amount of data is very diverse and large, so it is suitable for understanding social reality. In recent years, there has been an increasing number of attempts to analyze texts from web such as SNS and blogs where the public can communicate freely. It is recognized as a useful method to grasp public opinion immediately so it can be used for political, social and cultural issue research. Text mining has received much attention in order to investigate the public's reputation for candidates, and to predict the voting rate instead of the polling. This is because many people question the credibility of the survey. Also, People tend to refuse or reveal their real intention when they are asked to respond to the poll. This study collected comments from the largest Internet portal site in Korea and conducted research on the 19th Korean presidential election in 2017. We collected 226,447 comments from April 29, 2017 to May 7, 2017, which includes the prohibition period of public opinion polls just prior to the presidential election day. We analyzed frequencies, associative emotional words, topic emotions, and candidate voting rates. By frequency analysis, we identified the words that are the most important issues per day. Particularly, according to the result of the presidential debate, it was seen that the candidate who became an issue was located at the top of the frequency analysis. By the analysis of associative emotional words, we were able to identify issues most relevant to each candidate. The topic emotion analysis was used to identify each candidate's topic and to express the emotions of the public on the topics. Finally, we estimated the voting rate by combining the volume of comments and sentiment score. By doing above, we explored the issues for each candidate and predicted the voting rate. The analysis showed that news comments is an effective tool for tracking the issue of presidential candidates and for predicting the voting rate. Particularly, this study showed issues per day and quantitative index for sentiment. Also it predicted voting rate for each candidate and precisely matched the ranking of the top five candidates. Each candidate will be able to objectively grasp public opinion and reflect it to the election strategy. Candidates can use positive issues more actively on election strategies, and try to correct negative issues. Particularly, candidates should be aware that they can get severe damage to their reputation if they face a moral problem. Voters can objectively look at issues and public opinion about each candidate and make more informed decisions when voting. If they refer to the results of this study before voting, they will be able to see the opinions of the public from the Big Data, and vote for a candidate with a more objective perspective. If the candidates have a campaign with reference to Big Data Analysis, the public will be more active on the web, recognizing that their wants are being reflected. The way of expressing their political views can be done in various web places. This can contribute to the act of political participation by the people.

Hybrid Learning Architectures for Advanced Data Mining:An Application to Binary Classification for Fraud Management (개선된 데이터마이닝을 위한 혼합 학습구조의 제시)

  • Kim, Steven H.;Shin, Sung-Woo
    • Journal of Information Technology Application
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    • v.1
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    • pp.173-211
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    • 1999
  • The task of classification permeates all walks of life, from business and economics to science and public policy. In this context, nonlinear techniques from artificial intelligence have often proven to be more effective than the methods of classical statistics. The objective of knowledge discovery and data mining is to support decision making through the effective use of information. The automated approach to knowledge discovery is especially useful when dealing with large data sets or complex relationships. For many applications, automated software may find subtle patterns which escape the notice of manual analysis, or whose complexity exceeds the cognitive capabilities of humans. This paper explores the utility of a collaborative learning approach involving integrated models in the preprocessing and postprocessing stages. For instance, a genetic algorithm effects feature-weight optimization in a preprocessing module. Moreover, an inductive tree, artificial neural network (ANN), and k-nearest neighbor (kNN) techniques serve as postprocessing modules. More specifically, the postprocessors act as second0order classifiers which determine the best first-order classifier on a case-by-case basis. In addition to the second-order models, a voting scheme is investigated as a simple, but efficient, postprocessing model. The first-order models consist of statistical and machine learning models such as logistic regression (logit), multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA), ANN, and kNN. The genetic algorithm, inductive decision tree, and voting scheme act as kernel modules for collaborative learning. These ideas are explored against the background of a practical application relating to financial fraud management which exemplifies a binary classification problem.

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A Hybrid Data Mining Technique Using Error Pattern Modeling (오차 패턴 모델링을 이용한 Hybrid 데이터 마이닝 기법)

  • Hur, Joon;Kim, Jong-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.27-43
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents a new hybrid data mining technique using error pattern modeling to improve classification accuracy when the data type of a target variable is binary. The proposed method increases prediction accuracy by combining two different supervised learning methods. That is, the algorithm extracts a subset of training cases that are predicted inconsistently by both methods, and models error patterns from the cases. Based on the error pattern model, the Predictions of two different methods are merged to generate final prediction. The proposed method has been tested using practical 10 data sets. The analysis results show that the performance of proposed method is superior to the existing methods such as artificial neural networks and decision tree induction.

A Detailed Analysis of Classifier Ensembles for Intrusion Detection in Wireless Network

  • Tama, Bayu Adhi;Rhee, Kyung-Hyune
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.1203-1212
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    • 2017
  • Intrusion detection systems (IDSs) are crucial in this overwhelming increase of attacks on the computing infrastructure. It intelligently detects malicious and predicts future attack patterns based on the classification analysis using machine learning and data mining techniques. This paper is devoted to thoroughly evaluate classifier ensembles for IDSs in IEEE 802.11 wireless network. Two ensemble techniques, i.e. voting and stacking are employed to combine the three base classifiers, i.e. decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM). We use area under ROC curve (AUC) value as a performance metric. Finally, we conduct two statistical significance tests to evaluate the performance differences among classifiers.

Social graph visualization techniques for public data (공공데이터에 적합한 다양한 소셜 그래프 비주얼라이제이션 알고리즘 제안)

  • Lee, Manjai;On, Byung-Won
    • Journal of the HCI Society of Korea
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.5-17
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    • 2015
  • Nowadays various public data have been serviced to the public. Through the opening of public data, the transparency and effectiveness of public policy developed by governments are increased and users can lead to the growth of industry related to public data. Since end-users of using public data are citizens, it is very important for everyone to figure out the meaning of public data using proper visualization techniques. In this work, to indicate the significance of widespread public data, we consider UN voting record as public data in which many people may be interested. In general, it has high utilization value by diplomatic and educational purposes, and is available in public. If we use proper data mining and visualization algorithms, we can get an insight regarding the voting patterns of UN members. To visualize, it is necessary to measure the voting similarity values among UN members and then a social graph is created by the similarity values. Next, using a graph layout algorithm, the social graph is rendered on the screen. If we use the existing method for visualizing the social graph, it is hard to understand the meaning of the social graph because the graph is usually dense. To improve the weak point of the existing social graph visualization, we propose Friend-Matching, Friend-Rival Matching, and Bubble Heap algorithms in this paper. We also validate that our proposed algorithms can improve the quality of visualizing social graphs displayed by the existing method. Finally, our prototype system has been released in http://datalab.kunsan.ac.kr/politiz/un/. Please, see if it is useful in the aspect of public data utilization.

Context Prediction Using Right and Wrong Patterns to Improve Sequential Matching Performance for More Accurate Dynamic Context-Aware Recommendation (보다 정확한 동적 상황인식 추천을 위해 정확 및 오류 패턴을 활용하여 순차적 매칭 성능이 개선된 상황 예측 방법)

  • Kwon, Oh-Byung
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.51-67
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    • 2009
  • Developing an agile recommender system for nomadic users has been regarded as a promising application in mobile and ubiquitous settings. To increase the quality of personalized recommendation in terms of accuracy and elapsed time, estimating future context of the user in a correct way is highly crucial. Traditionally, time series analysis and Makovian process have been adopted for such forecasting. However, these methods are not adequate in predicting context data, only because most of context data are represented as nominal scale. To resolve these limitations, the alignment-prediction algorithm has been suggested for context prediction, especially for future context from the low-level context. Recently, an ontological approach has been proposed for guided context prediction without context history. However, due to variety of context information, acquiring sufficient context prediction knowledge a priori is not easy in most of service domains. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to propose a novel context prediction methodology, which does not require a priori knowledge, and to increase accuracy and decrease elapsed time for service response. To do so, we have newly developed pattern-based context prediction approach. First of ail, a set of individual rules is derived from each context attribute using context history. Then a pattern consisted of results from reasoning individual rules, is developed for pattern learning. If at least one context property matches, say R, then regard the pattern as right. If the pattern is new, add right pattern, set the value of mismatched properties = 0, freq = 1 and w(R, 1). Otherwise, increase the frequency of the matched right pattern by 1 and then set w(R,freq). After finishing training, if the frequency is greater than a threshold value, then save the right pattern in knowledge base. On the other hand, if at least one context property matches, say W, then regard the pattern as wrong. If the pattern is new, modify the result into wrong answer, add right pattern, and set frequency to 1 and w(W, 1). Or, increase the matched wrong pattern's frequency by 1 and then set w(W, freq). After finishing training, if the frequency value is greater than a threshold level, then save the wrong pattern on the knowledge basis. Then, context prediction is performed with combinatorial rules as follows: first, identify current context. Second, find matched patterns from right patterns. If there is no pattern matched, then find a matching pattern from wrong patterns. If a matching pattern is not found, then choose one context property whose predictability is higher than that of any other properties. To show the feasibility of the methodology proposed in this paper, we collected actual context history from the travelers who had visited the largest amusement park in Korea. As a result, 400 context records were collected in 2009. Then we randomly selected 70% of the records as training data. The rest were selected as testing data. To examine the performance of the methodology, prediction accuracy and elapsed time were chosen as measures. We compared the performance with case-based reasoning and voting methods. Through a simulation test, we conclude that our methodology is clearly better than CBR and voting methods in terms of accuracy and elapsed time. This shows that the methodology is relatively valid and scalable. As a second round of the experiment, we compared a full model to a partial model. A full model indicates that right and wrong patterns are used for reasoning the future context. On the other hand, a partial model means that the reasoning is performed only with right patterns, which is generally adopted in the legacy alignment-prediction method. It turned out that a full model is better than a partial model in terms of the accuracy while partial model is better when considering elapsed time. As a last experiment, we took into our consideration potential privacy problems that might arise among the users. To mediate such concern, we excluded such context properties as date of tour and user profiles such as gender and age. The outcome shows that preserving privacy is endurable. Contributions of this paper are as follows: First, academically, we have improved sequential matching methods to predict accuracy and service time by considering individual rules of each context property and learning from wrong patterns. Second, the proposed method is found to be quite effective for privacy preserving applications, which are frequently required by B2C context-aware services; the privacy preserving system applying the proposed method successfully can also decrease elapsed time. Hence, the method is very practical in establishing privacy preserving context-aware services. Our future research issues taking into account some limitations in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, user acceptance or usability will be tested with actual users in order to prove the value of the prototype system. Second, we will apply the proposed method to more general application domains as this paper focused on tourism in amusement park.

Comparative Patterns of Political Institutions and Social Policy Developments (정치제도가 사회정책의 발전에 미치는 효과에 관한 비교 연구)

  • Hong, Kyung-Zoon
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.62 no.3
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    • pp.141-162
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    • 2010
  • This paper tries to provide empirical support for a formal model of social policy development which has been presented in a former paper of this study. In the direct democracy, median voter's social policy preference is critical because he is Condorcet winner in a pair-wise pure majority voting. But, in the more general setting, we should think of various political institutions as a collective choice device. For this reason, I draw a formal model which formulates three contrasting types of political institutions which are distinguished by the developments of political democracy and the differences of electoral rules. Comparative patterns of key variables which measure political institutions, social policy developments, and social policy preference provide support for my arguments. My empirical results suggest that three political institutions are associated with very different policy outcomes. Compared to other institutions, committee system entails more targeted subsidy, less universal benefit. On the contrary, proportional elections produce more universal benefit, less targeted subsidy.

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