• Title/Summary/Keyword: Variability Management

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Assessing the Benefits of Incorporating Rainfall Forecasts into Monthly Flow Forecast System of Tampa Bay Water, Florida (하천 유량 예측 시스템 개선을 위한 강우 예측 자료의 적용성 평가: 플로리다 템파 지역 사례를 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Sye-Woon;Martinez, Chris;Asefa, Tirusew
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.127-135
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    • 2012
  • This paper introduced the flow forecast modeling system that a water management agency in west central Florida, Tampa Bay Water has been operated to forecast monthly rainfall and streamflow in the Tampa Bay region, Florida. We evaluated current 1-year monthly rainfall forecasts and flow forecasts and actual observations to investigate the benefits of incorporating rainfall forecasts into monthly flow forecast. Results for rainfall forecasts showed that the observed annual cycle of monthly rainfall was accurately reproduced by the $50^{th}$ percentile of forecasts. While observed monthly rainfall was within the $25^{th}$ and $75^{th}$ percentile of forecasts for most months, several outliers were found during the dry months especially in the dry year of 2007. The flow forecast results for the three streamflow stations (HRD, MB, and BS) indicated that while the 90 % confidence interval mostly covers the observed monthly streamflow, the $50^{th}$ percentile forecast generally overestimated observed streamflow. Especially for HRD station, observed streamflow was reproduced within $5^{th}$ and $25^{th}$ percentile of forecasts while monthly rainfall observations closely followed the $50^{th}$ percentile of rainfall forecasts. This was due to the historical variability at the station was significantly high and it resulted in a wide range of forecasts. Additionally, it was found that the forecasts for each station tend to converge after several months as the influence of the initial condition diminished. The forecast period to converge to simulation bounds was estimated by comparing the forecast results for 2006 and 2007. We found that initial conditions have influence on forecasts during the first 4-6 months, indicating that FMS forecasts should be updated at least every 4-6 months. That is, knowledge of initial condition (i.e., monthly flow observation in the last-recent month) provided no foreknowledge of the flows after 4-6 months of simulation. Based on the experimental flow forecasts using the observed rainfall data, we found that the 90 % confidence interval band for flow predictions was significantly reduced for all stations. This result evidently shows that accurate short-term rainfall forecasts could reduce the range of streamflow forecasts and improve forecast skill compared to employing the stochastic rainfall forecasts. We expect that the framework employed in this study using available observations could be used to investigate the applicability of existing hydrological and water management modeling system for use of stateof-the-art climate forecasts.

Study on economic effects of outsourcing of food materials on the hotel kitchen - Focus on cooking Western food in the first class hotel - (식재료 아웃소싱이 경제적 주방에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 - 특1급호텔 양식조리를 중심으로 -)

  • 성태종
    • Journal of Applied Tourism Food and Beverage Management and Research
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.45-69
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    • 2002
  • This study is designed to examine feasibility and limitation of outsourcing in cooking Western food in a hotel, to interpret importance of outsourcing(eg. outside order, outside procurement, outside supply) in a broad sense in order to reinforce the core capacity in the cooking department, and to know whether the cooking human power is efficiently used and how much the chefs recognize outsourcing of food materials. As many companies conduct restructuring to cut down its size, the reduction of human power led the Western food cooking in the hotel to lower core capacities, lower quality, and lower efficiency. In addition, the sagging morale of chefs undermined creativity. To change from the traditional kitchen to an economic kitchen needs to look into importance of outsourcing, cognitive attitude of chefs, relation with outside suppliers. Here suggests performance of positive changes in the structure The study examined feasibility and limitation of outsourcing in the hotel kitchen as well as chefs' cognitive attitude toward outsourcing of food materials to reinforce core capabilities of the hotel kitchen. 1. Companies of outsourcing are selected according to variability of price conditions, flexibility of contract conditions, popularity of the outsourcing company, and reputation of the outsourcing company. 2. The importance of outsourcing in the Western food cooking is divided into 4 factors such as standard of selecting outsourcing companies, policies of cooking manu, quality of cooking, and quantity of cooking. 3. The most feasible section in outsourcing of food materials is a process of kneading flour for bread, which shows that many Western-food chefs expect to put higher possibility of outsourcing on the kneading. In other words, when it comes to confectionery and bakery, there are many outside expert processing companies supplying high quality products. In the order of outsourcing feasibility, sauce is followed by processed vegetable, garnish of main dish, and soup. The least feasible section in outsourcing of food materials is appetize. Appetize includes a concept of a improvised dish and needs speed. Due to its color, freshness, and sensibility of taste, the appetize plays a key role in the Western food cooking. 4. When outsourcing is taken in place, the highest risk is to lower the inner cooking skills. Therefore chefs in charge of the Western food sequently recognize both internal problems including storage of cooking skills, unstability of layoffs, and loss of cooperation between departments, and external problems including inferior goods, difficulty of differentiating manu, delay of delivery, and expiration date. It shows that most of the Western food chefs consider risks of the internal problems at first. 5. A effective outsourcing needs appropriate selection of outsourcing companies, maintenance of credibility, active communication, check and management of hygiene. However regardless of their position or career, chefs in charge of the Western food have the same cognitive attitude toward selecting successful outsourcing companies after the outsourcing system is enforced. The core of cooking, or a final stage in the full process of so-called artistic cooking, should be treated with insourcing. Reduction of several cooking processes resulted in shortened cooking time, increased efficiency, faster cooking, cutting the waiting-lines, and finally more room for customers. The outsourcing system can reduce or eliminate the following processes in cooking: buying various food materials, checking, storing, preparing, and processing. Especially in the Western food cooking department of a hotel, the outsourcing system should be enforced to make an economic kitchen and to efficiently manage it. Wow it's time to change from the traditional kitchen to an economic kitchen in the hotel cooking department. For that, the cooking department should become a small but strong organization by outsourcing except its core work.

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Impacts of Three-dimensional Land Cover on Urban Air Temperatures (도시기온에 작용하는 입체적 토지피복의 영향)

  • Jo, Hyun-Kil;Ahn, Tae-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.54-60
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of three-dimensional land cover on changing urban air temperatures and to explore some strategies of urban landscaping towards mitigation of heat build-up. This study located study spaces within a diameter of 300m around 24 Automatic Weather Stations(AWS) in Seoul, and collected data of diverse variables which could affect summer energy budgets and air temperatures. The study also selected reflecting study objectives 6 smaller-scale spaces with a diameter of 30m in Chuncheon, and measured summer air temperatures and three-dimensional land cover to compare their relationships with results from Seoul's AWS. Linear regression models derived from data of Seoul's AWS revealed that vegetation volume, greenspace area, building volume, building area, population density, and pavement area contributed to a statistically significant change in summer air temperatures. Of these variables, vegetation and building volume indicated the highest accountability for total variability of changes in the air temperatures. Multiple regression models derived from combinations of the significant variables also showed that both vegetation and building volume generated a model with the best fitness. Based on this multiple regression model, a 10% increase of vegetation volume decreased the air temperatures by approximately 0.14%, while a 10% increase of building volume raised them by 0.26%. Relationships between Chuncheon's summer air temperatures and land cover distribution for the smaller-scale spaces also disclosed that the air temperatures were negatively correlated to vegetation volume and greenspace area, while they were positively correlated to hardscape area. Similarly to the case of Seoul's AWS, the air temperatures for the smaller-scale spaces decreased by 0.32% ($0.08^{\circ}C$) as vegetation volume increased by 10%, based on the most appropriate linear model. Thus, urban landscaping for the reduction of summer air temperatures requires strategies to improve vegetation volume and simultaneously to decrease building volume. For Seoul's AWS, the impact of building volume on changing the air temperatures was about 2 times greater than that of vegetation volume. Wall and rooftop greening for shading and evapotranspiration is suggested to control atmospheric heating by three-dimensional building surfaces, enlarging vegetation volume through multilayered plantings on soil surfaces.

Establishment of A WebGIS-based Information System for Continuous Observation during Ocean Research Vessel Operation (WebGIS 기반 해양 연구선 상시관측 정보 체계 구축)

  • HAN, Hyeon-Gyeong;LEE, Cholyoung;KIM, Tae-Hoon;HAN, Jae-Rim;CHOI, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.40-53
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    • 2021
  • Research vessels(R/Vs) used for ocean research move to the planned research area and perform ocean observations suitable for the research purpose. The five research vessels of the Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology(KIOST) are equipped with global positioning system(GPS), water depth, weather, sea surface layer temperature and salinity measurement equipment that can be observed at all times during cruise. An information platform is required to systematically manage and utilize the data produced through such continuous observation equipment. Therefore, the data flow was defined through a series of business analysis ranging from the research vessel operation plan to observation during the operation of the research vessel, data collection, data processing, data storage, display and service. After creating a functional design for each stage of the business process, KIOST Underway Meteorological & Oceanographic Information System(KUMOS), a Web-Geographic information system (Web-GIS) based information platform, was built. Since the data produced during the cruise of the R/Vs have characteristics of temporal and spatial variability, a quality management system was developed that considered these variabilities. For the systematic management and service of data, the KUMOS integrated Database(DB) was established, and functions such as R/V tracking, data display, search and provision were implemented. The dataset provided by KUMOS consists of cruise report, raw data, Quality Control(QC) flagged data, filtered data, cruise track line data, and data report for each cruise of the R/V. The business processing procedure and system of KUMOS for each function developed through this study are expected to serve as a benchmark for domestic ocean-related institutions and universities that have research vessels capable of continuous observations during cruise.

High-resolution medium-range streamflow prediction using distributed hydrological model WRF-Hydro and numerical weather forecast GDAPS (분포형 수문모형 WRF-Hydro와 기상수치예보모형 GDAPS를 활용한 고해상도 중기 유량 예측)

  • Kim, Sohyun;Kim, Bomi;Lee, Garim;Lee, Yaewon;Noh, Seong Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.5
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    • pp.333-346
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    • 2024
  • High-resolution medium-range streamflow prediction is crucial for sustainable water quality and aquatic ecosystem management. For reliable medium-range streamflow predictions, it is necessary to understand the characteristics of forcings and to effectively utilize weather forecast data with low spatio-temporal resolutions. In this study, we presented a comparative analysis of medium-range streamflow predictions using the distributed hydrological model, WRF-Hydro, and the numerical weather forecast Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) in the Geumho River basin, Korea. Multiple forcings, ground observations (AWS&ASOS), numerical weather forecast (GDAPS), and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), were ingested to investigate the performance of streamflow predictions with highresolution WRF-Hydro configuration. In terms of the mean areal accumulated rainfall, GDAPS was overestimated by 36% to 234%, and GLDAS reanalysis data were overestimated by 80% to 153% compared to AWS&ASOS. The performance of streamflow predictions using AWS&ASOS resulted in KGE and NSE values of 0.6 or higher at the Kangchang station. Meanwhile, GDAPS-based streamflow predictions showed high variability, with KGE values ranging from 0.871 to -0.131 depending on the rainfall events. Although the peak flow error of GDAPS was larger or similar to that of GLDAS, the peak flow timing error of GDAPS was smaller than that of GLDAS. The average timing errors of AWS&ASOS, GDAPS, and GLDAS were 3.7 hours, 8.4 hours, and 70.1 hours, respectively. Medium-range streamflow predictions using GDAPS and high-resolution WRF-Hydro may provide useful information for water resources management especially in terms of occurrence and timing of peak flow albeit high uncertainty in flood magnitude.

Stock Identification of Todarodes pacificus in Northwest Pacific (북서태평양에 서식하는 살오징어(Todarodes pacificus) 계군 분석에 대한 고찰)

  • Kim, Jeong-Yun;Moon, Chang-Ho;Yoon, Moon-Geun;Kang, Chang-Keun;Kim, Kyung-Ryul;Na, Taehee;Choy, Eun Jung;Lee, Chung Il
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.292-302
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    • 2012
  • This paper reviews comparison analysis of current and latest application for stock identification methods of Todarodes pacificus, and the pros and cons of each method and consideration of how to compensate for each other. Todarodes pacificus which migrates wide areas in western North Pacific is important fishery resource ecologically and commercially. Todarodes pacificus is also considered as 'biological indicator' of ocean environmental changes. And changes in its short and long term catch and distribution area occur along with environmental changes. For example, while the catch of pollack, a cold water fish, has dramatically decreased until today after the climate regime shift in 1987/1988, the catch of Todarodes pacificus has been dramatically increased. Regarding the decrease in pollack catch, overfishing and climate changes were considered as the main causes, but there has been no definite reason until today. One of the reasons why there is no definite answer is related with no proper analysis about ecological and environmental aspects based on stock identification. Subpopulation is a group sharing the same gene pool through sexual reproduction process within limited boundaries having similar ecological characteristics. Each individual with same stock might be affected by different environment in temporal and spatial during the process of spawning, recruitment and then reproduction. Thereby, accurate stock analysis about the species can play an efficient alternative to comply with effective resource management and rapid changes. Four main stock analysis were applied to Todarodes pacificus: Morphologic Method, Ecological Method, Tagging Method, Genetic Method. Ecological method is studies for analysis of differences in spawning grounds by analysing the individual ecological change, distribution, migration status, parasitic state of parasite, kinds of parasite and parasite infection rate etc. Currently the method has been studying lively can identify the group in the similar environment. However It is difficult to know to identify the same genetic group in each other. Tagging Method is direct method. It can analyse cohort's migration, distribution and location of spawning, but it is very difficult to recapture tagged squids and hard to tag juveniles. Genetic method, which is for useful fishery resource stock analysis has provided the basic information regarding resource management study. Genetic method for stock analysis is determined according to markers' sensitivity and need to select high multiform of genetic markers. For stock identification, isozyme multiform has been used for genetic markers. Recently there is increase in use of makers with high range variability among DNA sequencing like mitochondria, microsatellite. Even the current morphologic method, tagging method and ecological method played important rolls through finding Todarodes pacificus' life cycle, migration route and changes in spawning grounds, it is still difficult to analyze the stock of Todarodes pacificus as those are distributed in difference seas. Lately, by taking advantages of each stock analysis method, more complicated method is being applied. If based on such analysis and genetic method for improvement are played, there will be much advance in management system for the resource fluctuation of Todarodes pacificus.

Epidemiology and Control of Rice Blast in Korea (한국(韓國)에서의 도열병(病) 발생(發生), 만연(蔓延)과 그 방제(防除))

  • Park, Jong Seong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.356-369
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    • 1985
  • In Korea, inevitable researches for the blast control exactly started from 1927 by the organization of Office of Rural Development with the local extensive outbreak of panicle blast at Jeonlla Buk-Do Province in 1926. At present, the rice blast is still one of the most destructive and widespread diseases in spite of considerable contributions by rice scientists, particularly plant pathologists during last 55 years in Korea. Rice blast control and management are very difficult because of the marked variability in pathogenicity of the blast fungus. From the results obtained through the disease surveys during last 70 years, different 3 prevalence type of blast such as bimodal leaf-blast type, bimodal panicle-blast type and bimodal continual blast type were recognized. In generally speaking, pattern of blast outbreak is said to be characterized by severe outbreak of panicle blast after slight outbreak of leaf blast with discontinuity between leaf and panicle blast. So we have to pay much attention for successful management of panicle blast giving direct influence to rice yield. Main factors induce blast epidemic were pointed out to be breakdown of the disease resistance, nutritional unbalance such as excess application of nitrogen, delay of transplantation and longspell of rain fall by extensive surveys and researches on blast during last 70 years in Korea. The fact some of Japonica varieties such as Kokuryomiyako, Tamanishiki, Ginbozu and Pungok belong to varietal group A had been cultivated with extensive acrage over 30 years in this country should be mentioned by Korean rice scientists. Differences in field resistance between varieties in the same group are detectable and apparently small but sometimes epidemiologically significant differential effects may be found out in case of blast. Much more attention should be payed to accumulate the knowledges on field resistance for successful management of blast. Excess application of nitrogen is more effective to outbreak of panicle blast than that of leaf blast of IR varieties. In comparatively low level application of nitrogen infection rate of panicle blast of IR varieties is considerably high. Low temperature effects on outbreak of blast is very great. It results in remarkable increase of the inoculum potential on the leaf lesions and infection of panicle blast in leaf sheathes of IR varieties during the booting stage. In economic point of view, it is concluded that 5 times sprays of effective fungicides including 3 times before and 2 times after heading is good enough to control blast. We have experienced no one of control measures for blast is superior to all others. The integrated control measures was established as guideline of blast control around 1950 in Korea. This guideline must be helpful for rice growers as long as rice growing continue.

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Spatial and Temporal Variability of Water Quality in Geum-River Watershed and Their Influences by Landuse Pattern (금강 수계의 시.공간적 수질특성과 토지이용도의 영향)

  • Han, Jeong-Ho;Bae, Young-Ju;An, Kwang-Guk
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.385-399
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    • 2010
  • The objective of this study was to analyze long term temporal trends of water chemistry and spatial heterogeneity for 83 sampling sites of Geum-River watershed using water quality dataset during 2003~2007 (obtained from the Ministry of Environment, Korea). The water quality, based on multi-parameters of temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), suspended solids (SS), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and electric conductivity (EC), largely varied depending on the landuse patterns, years and seasons. The watershed was classified into three different landuse types: forest stream (Fo), agricultural stream (Ag), and urban stream (Ur). Largest seasonal variabilities in most parameters occurred during the two months of July to August and these were closely associated with large spate of summer monsoon rain. Conductivity, used as a key indicator for an ionic dilution during rainy season, and nutrients of TN and TP had inverse functions of precipitation. BOD, COD decrease during the rainy season. Minimum values in the conductivity, TN, and TP were observed during the summer monsoon, indicating an ionic and nutrient dilution of river water by the rainwater. In contrast, major inputs of suspended solids (SS) occurred during the period of summer monsoon. The landuse patterns analyses, based on the variables of BOD, COD, TN, TP and SS, showed that the values were greater in the agricultural stream (Ag) than in the forest stream (Fo) and urban stream (Ur) and that water quality was worst in the urban stream (Ur). The overall dataset suggest that efficient water quality management, especially in Gap-Stream and Miho-Stream, which showed worst water quality is required along with some of urban stream (Ur), based on the analysis of landuse patterns.

A Meta-analysis of Ambient Air Pollution in Relation to Daily Mortality in Seoul, $1991\sim1995$ (메타분석 방법을 적용한 서울시 대기오염과 조기사망의 상관성 연구 (1991년$\sim$1995년))

  • Dockery, Douglas W.;Kim, Chun-Bae;Jee, Sun-Ha;Chung, Yong;Lee, Jong-Tae
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.177-182
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    • 1999
  • Objectives: To reexamine the association between air pollution and daily mortality in Seoul, Korea using a method of meta-analysis with the data filed for 1991 through 1995. Methods: A separate Poisson regression analysis on each district within the metropolitan area of Seoul was conducted to regress daily death counts on levels of each ambient air pollutant, such as total suspended particulates (TSP), sulfur dioxide $(SO_2)$, and ozone $(O_3)$, controlling for variability in the weather condition. We calculated a weighted mean as a meta-analysis summary of the estimates and its standard error. Results: We found that the p value from each pollutant model to test the homogeneity assumption was small (p<0.01) because of the large disparity among district-specific estimates. Therefore, all results reported here were estimated from the random effect model. Using the weighted mean that we calculated, the mortality at a $100{\mu}g/m^3$ increment in a 3-day moving average of TSP levels was 1.034 (95% Cl 1.009-1.059). The mortality was estimated to increase 6% (95% Cl 3-10%) and 3% (95% Cl 0-6%) with each 50 ppb increase for 9-day moving average of SO2 and 1-hr maximum O3, respectively. Conclusions: Like most of air pollution epidemiologic studies, this meta-analysis cannot avoid fleeing from measurement misclassification since no personal measurement was taken. However, we can expect that a measurement bias be reduced in a district-specific estimate since a monitoring station is hefter representative cf air quality of the matched district. The similar results to those from the previous studios indicated existence of health effect of air pollution at current levels in many industrialized countries, including Korea.

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Soil Properties of Chestnut (Castanea crenata) Stands by Regions in Gyeongnam Province (경상남도 밤나무임지의 지역별 토양특성)

  • Kim, Choonsig;Lim, Jong-Taek;Cho, Hyun-Seo;Goo, Gwan-Hyo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.96 no.1
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    • pp.89-95
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    • 2007
  • This study was carried out to evaluate soil properties by regions from chestnut (Castanea crenata Sieb. et Zucc) stands in Gyeongnam province. Soil physical and chemical properties were measured from soil samples of top 20 em collected from three hillslopes (upper, middle, lower) of the chestnut stands in six regions (Jinjusi, Sacheonsi, Sancheonggun, Hadonggun, Goseonggun, Hapcheongun) where are major chestnut cultivation areas throughout the province. Soil properties were significantly different among regions (p<0.05), while were not significantly different among hillslopes (p>0.05). Soil bulk density, soil pore space, soil pH, organic matter content, total nitrogen, available phosphorus, and CEC were significantly different among regions (p<0.05). Soil bulk density was significantly lower (p<0.05) in Hadonggun ($0.96g/cm^3$ than in other regions ($1.12{\sim}1.22g/cm^3$). Soil pH was below pH 5.03 in most regions and Sancheonggun showed the lowest soil pH value (pH 4.62), followed by Jinjusi, Hadonggun, Hapcheongtm, Goseonggun, and Sacheonsi. Organic matter content was highest in Hadonggun (6.46%), while other regions ranged between 2.93% and 3.47%. Total nitrogen content showed a similar trend like the organic matter content. Available phosphorus was above 100 ppm in Jinjusi, Hadonggun and Sancheonggun, but Sacheonsi showed the lowest concentration (15 ppm) among the regions. Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC) was above 10 cmolc/kg in Goseonggun and Hadonggun, but below 8.6 cmolc/kg in Jinjusi and Hapcheongtm. Potassium content ranged between 0.07 and 0.14 cmolc/kg, and magnesium was above 0.66 cmolc/kg in all regions. The results indicate that soil property in chestnut stands was different among regions in Gyeongnam province. This suggested that the chestnut stands should be managed by the fertilization application reflected in the variability of regional soil property in chestnut stands.