• Title/Summary/Keyword: Value of Forecast

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Study on the Dextran and the Inner Structure of Jeung-Pyun (Korea Rice Cake) on Adding Oligosaccharide (올리고당 첨가 증편 발효 중 Dextran 형성과 증편의 내부구조에 관한 연구)

  • 이은아;우경자
    • Journal of the East Asian Society of Dietary Life
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.38-46
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    • 2002
  • This study was carried out in order to investigate dextran formation and internal structure during fermentation of the oligosaccharide Jeung-Pyun. The dextran and sugar reducing contents of Jeung-Pyun batter and the specific volume and the internal structure of Jeung-Pyun were analyzed as a function of fermentation time. The specific volume of Jeung-Pyun peaked at the 7th hour of fermentation. The dextran content of Jeung-Pyun batters peaked at the 7~13th hour of fermentation, and Fructooligosaccharide Jeung-Pyun had the least peak value. Reducing sugar content of Jeung-Pyun batters slowly decreased as fermentation progressed. From the air pore size and distribution of Jeung-Pyun observed by SEM, the sucrose Jeung-Pyun fermented for 3~7 hours and oligosaccharide one fermented for 7 hours were judged as the best. It was concluded that dextran may be formed by fermentation of oligosaccharides as well as sucrose and dextran has a significant role on the volume expansion of Jeung-Pyun.

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Freight Transport Demand and Economic Benefit Analysis for Automated Freight Transport System: Focused on GILC in Busan (인터모달 자동화물운송시스템 도입을 위한 화물운송수요 및 사업편익분석 - 부산 국제산업물류도시를 중심으로-)

  • SHIN, Seungjin;ROH, Hong-Seung;HUR, Sung Ho;KIM, Donghyun
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.17-34
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    • 2017
  • This study aims to analyze the freight transport demand and benefit for the introduction of an automated freight transport system focusing on the Global Industry and Logistics City (GILC) in Busan. In pursuit of this aim, four alternatives were calculated - using the freight volume estimating methods and included, the number of businesses, the number of employees set up, future estimated cargo volume, and switched volume from other transport modes into the GILC. Economic benefits were analyzed against social benefits and costs accordingly. The result of the freight transport demand forecast found, the cargo volume of "Alternative 2-1" to be the most advantageous, applying the number of employee unit method and proportion of employees in Gangseo-gu, Busan. In addition to the conventional analysis of direct benefit items (reduction of transport time, traffic accidents and environmental costs), this study also considered additional benefit items (congestion costs savings, and road maintenance costs in terms of opportunity cost). It also considered advanced value for money research in guidance on rail appraisal of U.K, Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan 2003 of Germany, and RailDec of the United States. The study aims to further contribute to estimating minimum cargo transport demands and assess the economic feasibility of the introduction of new intermodal automated freight transport systems in the future.

Analysis of Global Shipping Market Status and Forecasting the Container Freight Volume of Busan New port using Time-series Model (글로벌 해운시장 현황 분석 및 시계열 모형을 이용한 부산 신항 컨테이너 물동량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • JO, Jun-Ho;Byon, Je-Seop;Kim, Hee-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we analyze the trends of the international shipping market and the domestic and foreign factors of the crisis of the domestic shipping market, and identify the characteristics of the recovery of the Busan New Port trade volume which has decreased since the crisis of the domestic shipping market We quantitatively analyzed the future volume of Busan New Port and analyzed the trends of the prediction and recovery trends. As a result of analyzing Busan New Port container cargo volume by using big data analysis tool R, the variation of Busan New Cargo container cargo volume was estimated by ARIMA model (1,0,1) (1,0,1)[12] Estimation error, AICc and BIC were the most optimal ARIMA models. Therefore, we estimated the estimated value of Busan New Port trade for 36 months by using ARIMA (1, 0, 1)[12], which is the optimal model of Busan New Port trade, and estimated 13,157,184 TEU, 13,418,123 TEU, 13,539,884 TEU, and 4,526,406 TEU, respectively, indicating that it increased by about 2%, 2%, and 1%.

Development of a Daily Solar Major Flare Occurrence Probability Model Based on Vector Parameters from SDO/HMI

  • Lim, Daye;Moon, Yong-Jae;Park, Jongyeob;Lee, Kangjin;Lee, Jin-Yi
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.59.5-60
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    • 2017
  • We present the relationship between vector magnetic field parameters and solar major flare occurrence rate. Based on this, we are developing a forecast model of major flare (M and X-class) occurrence rate within a day using hourly vector magnetic field data of Space-weather HMI Active Region Patch (SHARP) from May 2010 to April 2017. In order to reduce the projection effect, we use SHARP data whose longitudes are within ${\pm}60$ degrees. We consider six SHARP magnetic parameters (the total unsigned current helicity, the total photospheric magnetic free energy density, the total unsigned vertical current, the absolute value of the net current helicity, the sum of the net current emanating from each polarity, and the total unsigned magnetic flux) with high F-scores as useful predictors of flaring activity from Bobra and Couvidat (2015). We have considered two cases. In case 1, we have divided the data into two sets separated in chronological order. 75% of the data before a given day are used for setting up a flare model and 25% of the data after that day are used for test. In case 2, the data are divided into two sets every year in order to reduce the solar cycle (SC) phase effect. All magnetic parameters are divided into 100 groups to estimate the corresponding flare occurrence rates. The flare identification is determined by using LMSAL flare locations, giving more numbers of flares than the NGDC flare list. Major results are as follows. First, major flare occurrence rates are well correlated with six magnetic parameters. Second, the occurrence rate ranges from 0.001 to 1 for M and X-class flares. Third, the logarithmic values of flaring rates are well approximated by two linear equations with different slopes: steeper one at lower values and lower one at higher values. Fourth, the sum of the net current emanating from each polarity gives the minimum RMS error between observed flare rates and predicted ones. Fifth, the RMS error for case 2, which is taken to reduce SC phase effect, are smaller than those for case 1.

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A Study on the Hydration Reaction Model of Expansive Additive of Ettringite-Gypsum Type (에트링가이트-석탄 복합계 팽장재의 수화반응 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Park Sun Gyu;Takahumi Noguchi;Kim Moo-Han
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.17 no.4 s.88
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    • pp.581-586
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    • 2005
  • High-performance concrete (HPC), which is particularly sensitive to self-desiccation, is required to be durable even in severe environmental conditions, i.e. costal area, cold district, etc. However, in recent years, some attention was particularly given to cracking sensitivity of high performance concrete at early age. It has been argued and demonstrated experimentally that such concrete undergoes autogenous shrinkage due to self-desiccation at early age under restrained condition, nd, as a result, internal tensile stress may develop, leading to micro cracking and macro cracking. This shrinkage-introduced crack produces a major serviceability problem for concrete structures. One possible method to reduce cracking due to autogenous shrinkage is the addition of expansive additive. Tests conducted by many researches have shown the beneficial effects of addition of expansive additive for reducing the risk of autogenous shrinkage-introduced cracking. However, the research on hydration model of expansion additive has been hardly researched up to now. This paper presents a study of the hydration model of Ettringite-Gypsum type expansive additive. As a result of comparing forecast values with experiment value, proposed model is shown to expressible of hydration of expansive additive.

Analysis of Hydraulic Effect by River Dredging in a Meandering Channel (하도준설이 사행하천에 미치는 수리학적 영향 분석)

  • KIM, Tae-Hyeong;KIM, Byung-Hyun;HAN, Kun-Yeun
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.14-30
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    • 2015
  • This paper attempted to analyze the hydraulic effects that the dredging can take as an alternative to reduce possible damages of flooding due to the overflow of river levee in meandering rivers, where riverbed aggradation, seepage and erosion may occur. In order to make a hydraulic analysis in a section of meandering rivers, a two-dimensional hydraulic analysis model, RMA-2, was selected. The GIS was applied to construct two-dimensional finite element grids to consider the hydraulic conditions before and after dredging. The water surface elevations, depths, velocities, and tractive forces were compared before and after the dredging. The difference of water surface elevation between the inside and outside of river was turned out to be the maximum value of 0.58m under the design flood condition. It could be evaluated that the tractive force at the bank decreased about 42 to 67% on average for all the sections. These results could give valuable information that the dredging of the stream channel at the meandering sections decreased the risk of overflow, seepage and erosion of the banks. The methodologies given in this study will contribute to mitigating the flood damages in the surrounding farmlands.

A Study on the Cultural Characteristics of the Design Material (디자인재료의 문화적 특성에 관한 연구)

  • 박종찬
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.149-162
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    • 1998
  • This study is what tried to examine the importance of material in industrial design. Then, if planning is to start of product design, the use of material is the last step to complete design. Design material has existed from the time before mankind were born, and the new material which is useful for human beings is developing rapidly. It is no exaggeration to say that our environment is the aggregation of material which was surrounded with us. Then, material has the timely, spatial and cultural feature as well as physical feature. Besides, all sorts of functions of communicating information are being contained in accordance with the character of material. The outside surface of material has the function to develop the sense organ of human beings. This study examines 4 kinds of cultural features in design materials and shown by findings is as follows : Rrst is the technical progressivity to lead new Design form. Second is the symbolic nature to perform the communication function. Third is the sensible attribute to develop surface effect of Design material. Fourth is the future-oriented nature to convince the future such as new material and technology etc. Thus, so as to perform the competitive product design, it is important to grasp the harmony between material and design, structure and processing, and the substantial meaning that the material has and apply them properly, above all. Because the discovery of material will be the measure to forecast future design.

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Geographical Name Denoising by Machine Learning of Event Detection Based on Twitter (트위터 기반 이벤트 탐지에서의 기계학습을 통한 지명 노이즈제거)

  • Woo, Seungmin;Hwang, Byung-Yeon
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.4 no.10
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    • pp.447-454
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    • 2015
  • This paper proposes geographical name denoising by machine learning of event detection based on twitter. Recently, the increasing number of smart phone users are leading the growing user of SNS. Especially, the functions of short message (less than 140 words) and follow service make twitter has the power of conveying and diffusing the information more quickly. These characteristics and mobile optimised feature make twitter has fast information conveying speed, which can play a role of conveying disasters or events. Related research used the individuals of twitter user as the sensor of event detection to detect events that occur in reality. This research employed geographical name as the keyword by using the characteristic that an event occurs in a specific place. However, it ignored the denoising of relationship between geographical name and homograph, it became an important factor to lower the accuracy of event detection. In this paper, we used removing and forecasting, these two method to applied denoising technique. First after processing the filtering step by using noise related database building, we have determined the existence of geographical name by using the Naive Bayesian classification. Finally by using the experimental data, we earned the probability value of machine learning. On the basis of forecast technique which is proposed in this paper, the reliability of the need for denoising technique has turned out to be 89.6%.

A LONGITUDINAL CEPHALOMETRIC STUDY OF THE CRANIOFACIAL GROWTH CHANGES OF ADOLESCENCE WITH NORMAL OCCLLUSION (청소년기 정상교합자의 악안면 성장에 관한 두부방사선 규격사진 분석에 의한 누년적 연구(Ricketts분석법에 의한 연구))

  • KIM, Yun-Jeong;Park, Kyung-Duk;Kwon, Oh-Won
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.25 no.3 s.50
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    • pp.287-297
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    • 1995
  • This study was performed to establish the cephalometric standards and growth changes necessary to create the Growth Forecast without Treatment at adolescence. The data from biennial serial cephalometric radiographs of 25 male and 21 female subjects aged from 8 to 16 years of Normal Koreans were used for this study. The following results were obtained. 1. There were no significant value changes of facial axis angle, fn to palatal plane angle, BA-NA-A angle, lower facial height and lower incisor protrusion as the age increased. 2. From continuous increasing measurements(anterior and posterior cranial babe length, facial axis length, condyle axis length, corpus axis length), the annual growth changes, average annual growth changes and changes for 8 years were obtained. 3. From continuous increasing measurements, significant differences were observed between male and female subjects in most annual growth changes after age of 12 years, average annual growth changes and changes for 8 years (p<0.05). 4. All linear and angular measurements were plotted by using X-Y plotter and personal computer. The visual norms for both sexes were obtained. There was considerable growth, for male, for each period especially the most remarkable growth from the age of 12 to 14. For female, the upmost growth was showed from the age of 10 to 12, and gradually decreased since then.

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An Analysis on the Preference and Use-Demand Forecasting of Bus Information (버스정보의 선호도 및 이용수요 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Won Gyu;Jung, Hun Young
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6D
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    • pp.791-799
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    • 2008
  • To build the system which has high utilization and usefulness for users, it is necessary to know the information type and use-demand that the use want. The purpose of this study is to forecast the preference and demand of utilization for bus information when bus information is offered through cellular phon. The accomplishments of this research are as follow : Firstly, importance on the level of individual factor and the value of change's figure can be evaluated, using preference analysis on bus information by conjoint analysis. Secondly, by establishing the use-demand model bus information using binary logit model, influence factor on whether or not the use of the user. Finally, ordered probit model was built by use behavior model in payment per call or per month of potential user of bus information. Through call times and sensitive analysis by payment methods, elasticity point, optimal payment fee, and use probability was analyzed. This study make application as basic to efficient bus information policy and to improve use rate of bus information in future because this study make it possible to get preference analysis, use-demand analysis and estimation of optimal payment fee which is reflecting various requirement in use of bus information user.