• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.565-575
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• 2020

Objective: South Korea still lacks systematic national poisoning data collection or a poison control center (PC). The objectives of this study are to provide estimates of poisoning incidents in South Korea and to stress the necessity of a national poisoning surveillance framework managed by a national PC. Method: The number of poisoning incidents was estimated based on the 2018 annual report of the American Association of Poison Control Centers' National Poison Data System (NPDS). Our estimation of poisoning data was classified according to age group, reason for poison exposure, and case management site. Results: Total poisoning cases estimated numbered 326,636, which is tantamount to 631 cases per 100 thousand. Poisoning cases among those younger than five years old accounted for 71.7% in the United States. Fatal poisoning cases were estimated to be 210.63 (95% CI: 199.70-222.15). Non-intentional poisoning cases (250,378 cases, 95% CI: 249,992-250,764, 76.7%) were estimated to be far higher than intentional cases (62,399 cases, 95% CI: 62,207-62,593, 19.1%). Conclusion: Our results can be used to suggest the necessity of producing national poisoning data and establishing a PC despite the uncertainty of estimation.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.27-35
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• 2017

Based on Income-approach, this study develops the evaluation model which reflects construction industry's traits. Using Income approach, we derive future income's present value and evaluates the technological value by contribution to future income. As there exist more random variables in construction technology than in standardized manufactured products, we cannot help relying on not only quantitative estimation method but also qualitative evaluation by technology and market experts when we estimates construction technology value. Also, conservative estimation is needed for discount rate and cash-flow estimation, because of high uncertainty in sales and profits in construction industry. In empirical analysis, we applied economic periods of duration and cash-flow based on the standard guideline, and analyzed discount rate and technology factor based on characteristics of construction industry. The discount rate is estimated to 15% because of risk-premium increase by conservative evaluation. Technology factor is estimated to 46.7%, because technological intensity is estimated to 72% by technological superiority. Such implications can be inferred. Firstly, we need to build a database to diversify categories for division of sectors by activity or industrial classification which is now categorized only by two sectors in standard guideline. Secondly, the roles of experts who participate in technology evaluation are important because of volatility of construction technology.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.10
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• pp.793-806
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• 2015

The simulation of natural streamflow at ungauged basins is one of the fundamental challenges in hydrology community. The key to runoff simulation in ungauged basins is generally involved with a reliable parameter estimation in a rainfall-runoff model. However, the parameter estimation of the rainfall-runoff model is a complex issue due to an insufficient hydrologic data. This study aims to regionalize the parameters of a continuous rainfall-runoff model in conjunction with a Bayesian statistical technique to consider uncertainty more precisely associated with the parameters. First, this study employed Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme for the estimation of the Sacramento rainfall-runoff model. The Sacramento model is calibrated against observed daily runoff data, and finally, the posterior density function of the parameters is derived. Second, we applied a multiple linear regression model to the set of the parameters with watershed characteristics, to obtain a functional relationship between pairs of variables. The proposed model was also validated with gauged watersheds in accordance with the efficiency criteria such as the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, index of agreement and the coefficient of correlation.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.58-66
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• 2009

Recently the emerging demands of the light-video encoder promotes lots of research efforts on DVC (Distributed Video Coding). As an appropriate video compression method, DVC has been studied, and Wyner-Ziv (WZ) video compression is its one representative structure. The WZ encoder splits the image into two kinds of frames, one is key frame which is compressed by conventional intra coding, and the other is WZ frame which is encoded by WZ coding. The WZ decoder decodes the key frame first, and estimates the WZ frame using temporal correlation between key frames. Estimated WZ frame (Side Information) cannot be the same as the original WZ frame due to the absence of the WZ frame information at decoder. As a result, the difference between the estimated and original WZ frames are regarded as virtual channel noise. The WZ frame is reconstructed by removing noise in side information. Therefore precise noise estimation produces good performance gain in WZ video compression by improving error correcting capability by channel code. But noise cannot be estimated precisely at WZ decoder unless there is good WZ frame information, and generally it is estimated from the difference of corresponding key frames. Also the estimated noise is limited by comparing with frame level noise to reduce the uncertainty of the estimation method. However these methods cannot provide good noise estimation for every frame or each bit plane. In this paper, we propose a noise nodel selection method which chooses a better noise model for each bit plane after generating candidate noise models. Experimental result shows PSNR gain up to 0.8 dB.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.355-362
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• 2012

Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction of a system is important in the prognostics field since it is directly linked with safety and maintenance scheduling. In the physics-based prognostics, accurately estimated model parameters can predict the remaining useful life exactly. It, however, is not a simple task to estimate the model parameters because most real system have multivariate model parameters, also they are correlated each other. This paper presents representative methods to estimate model parameters in the physics-based prognostics and discusses the difference between three methods; the particle filter method(PF), the overall Bayesian method(OBM), and the sequential Bayesian method(SBM). The three methods are based on the same theoretical background, the Bayesian estimation technique, but the methods are distinguished from each other in the sampling methods or uncertainty analysis process. Therefore, a simple physical model as an easy task and the Paris model for crack growth problem are used to discuss the difference between the three methods, and the performance of each method evaluated by using established prognostics metrics is compared.

• Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.54-63
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• 2015

Petrophysical parameters such as porosity and fluid saturation which provide useful information for reservoir characterization could be estimated by rock physics model (RPM) using seismic velocity and resistivity. Therefore, accurate P-wave velocity and resistivity information have to be obtained for successful estimation of the petrophysical parameters. Compared with the individual inversion of electromagnetic (EM) or seismic data, the joint inversion using both EM and seismic data together can reduce the uncertainty and gives the opportunity to use the advantages of each data. Thus, more reliable petrophysical properties could be estimated through the joint inversion. In this paper, for the successful estimation of petrophysical parameters, we proposed an effective method which applies a grid-search method to find the porosity and fluid saturation. The relations of porosity and fluid saturation with P-wave velocity and resistivity were expressed by using RPM and the improved resistivity distribution used to this study was obtained by joint inversion of seismic and EM data. When the proposed method was applied to the synthetic data which were simulated for subsea reservoir exploration, reliable petrophysical parameters were obtained. The results indicate that the proposed method can be applied for detecting a reservoir and calculating the accurate oil and gas reserves.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.1-9
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• 2005

The study shows the possible use of the index flood frequency curves for an estimation of flood quantiles at ungauged locations. Flood frequency analysis were made for the annual maximum flood data series at 9 available stations in the Han river basin. From the flood frquency curve at each station the mean annual flood of 2.33-year return period was determined and the ratios of the flood magnitude of various return period to the mean annual flood at each station were averaged throughout the Han river basin, resulting mean flood ratios of different return periods. A correlation analysis was made between the mean annual flood and physiographic parameters of the watersheds i.e, the watershed area and mean river channel slope, resulting an empirical multiple linear regression equation over the whole Han river basin. For unguaged watershed the flood of a specified return period could be estimated by multiplying the mead flood ratio corresponding the return period with the mean annual flood computed by the empirical formula developed in terms of the watershed area and river channel slope. To verify the applicability of the methodology developed in the present study the floods of various return periods determined for the watershed in the river channel improvement plan formulation by the Ministry of Construction and Transportation(MOCT) were compared with those estimated by the present method. The result proved a resonable agreement up to the watershed area of approximately 2,000k $m^2$. It is suggested that the practice of design flood estimation based on the rainfall-runoff analysis might have to be reevaluated because it involves too much uncertainties in the hydrologic data and rainfall-runoff model calibration.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.9
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• pp.769-782
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• 2018

Estimation of design floods is typically required for hydrologic design purpose. Design floods are routinely estimated for water resources planning, safety and risk of the existing water-related structures. However, the hydrologic data, especially streamflow data for the design purposes in South Korea are still very limited, and additionally the length of streamflow data is relatively short compared to the rainfall data. Therefore, this study collected a large number design flood data and watershed characteristics (e.g. area, slope and altitude) from the national river database. We further explored to formulate a scaling approach for the estimation of design flood, which is a function of the watershed characteristics. Then, this study adopted a Hierarchical Bayesian model for evaluating both parameters and their uncertainties in the regionalization approach, which models the hydrologic response of ungauged basins using regression relationships between watershed structure and model. The proposed modeling framework was validated through ungauged watersheds. The proposed approach have better performance in terms of correlation coefficient than the existing approach which is solely based on area as a predictor. Moreover, the proposed approach can provide uncertainty associated with the model parameters to better characterize design floods at ungauged watersheds.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.101-110
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• 2017

The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) presented the disaster prevention performance target rainfall (DPPTR) for disaster prevention. The estimation criteria for DPPTR is a 10 year cycle. On the other hand, the target rainfall recalculated every 10 years is difficult to reflect the current change in rainfall on climate change. In this study, the probability of precipitation using the recent rainfall data was prepared and the weights according to socio-economic criteria reflecting the urban characteristics and adjusted probability rainfall criteria were applied to the results. The difference between the existing target rainfall and recalculated result was compared. The input data for the estimated probability rainfall was selected from 6 points located in the rainfall observing station of Chungcheongnam-do, Daejeon region. As a result of the estimation, in the case of upward probability precipitation weight, some similar areas were observed. On the other hand, there were a few cases of upward or downward changes within 10 mm. Considering the rainfall variability and uncertainty due to climate change, the existing target rainfall does not present the condition properly. Therefore, hydrological designers need to calculate the target rainfall, reflecting the present condition.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.42-54
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• 2016

It is highly anticipated that warming temperature resulting from global climate change will affect the phenological pattern of kiwifruit, which has been commercially grown in Korea since the early 1980s. Here, we present the potential impacts of climate change on the variations of flowering day of a gold kiwifruit cultivar, Haegeum, in the Jeonnam Province, Korea. By running six global climate models (GCM), the results from this study emphasize the uncertainty in climate change scenarios. To predict the flowering day of kiwifruit, we obtained three parameters of the 'Chill-day' model for the simulation of Haegeum: $6.3^{\circ}C$ for the base temperature (Tb), 102.5 for chill requirement (Rc), and 575 for heat requirement (Rh). Two separate validations of the resulting 'Chill-day' model were conducted. First, direct comparisons were made between the observed flowering days collected from 25 kiwifruit orchards for two years (2014-15) and the simulated flowering days from the 'Chill-day' model using weather data from four weather stations near the 25 orchards. The estimation error between the observed and simulated flowering days was 5.2 days. Second, the model was simulated using temperature data extracted, for the 25 orchards, from a high-resolution digital temperature map, resulting in the error of 3.4 days. Using the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios from six GCMs for the period of 2021-40, the future flowering days were simulated with the 'Chill-day' model. The predicted flowering days of Haegeum in Jeonnam were advanced more than 10 days compared to the present ones from multi-model ensemble, while some individual models resulted in quite different magnitudes of impacts, indicating the multi-model ensemble accounts for uncertainty better than individual climate models. In addition, the current flowering period of Haegeum in Jeonnam Province was predicted to expand northward, reaching over Jeonbuk and Chungnam Provinces. This preliminary result will provide a basis for the local impact assessment of climate change as more phenology models are developed for other fruit trees.