• 제목/요약/키워드: Uncertain parameters

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Nonparametic Kernel Regression model for Rating curve (수위-유량곡선을 위한 비매개 변수적 Kernel 회귀모형)

  • Moon, Young-Il;Cho, Sung-Jin;Chun, Si-Young
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.1025-1033
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    • 2003
  • In common with workers in hydrologic fields, scientists and engineers relate one variable to two or more other variables for purposes of predication, optimization, and control. Statistics methods have improved to establish such relationships. Regression, as it is called, is indeed the most commonly used statistics technique in hydrologic fields; relationship between the monitored variable stage and the corresponding discharges(rating curve). Regression methods expressed in the form of mathematical equations which has parameters, so called parametric methods. some times, the establishment of parameters is complicated and uncertain. Many non-parametric regression methods which have not parameters, have been proposed and studied. The most popular of these are kernel regression method. Kernel regression offer a way of estimation the regression function without the specification of a parametric model. This paper conducted comparisons of some bandwidth selection methods which are using the least squares and cross-validation.

Safety Assessment on Long-term Radiological Impact of the Improved KAERI Reference Disposal System (the KRS+)

  • Ju, Heejae;Kim, In-Young;Lee, Youn-Myoung;Kim, Jung-Woo;Hwang, Yongsoo;Choi, Heui-joo;Cho, Dong-Keun
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.18 no.spc
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    • pp.75-87
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    • 2020
  • The Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) has developed geological repository systems for the disposal of high-level wastes and spent nuclear fuels (SNFs) in South Korea. The purpose of the most recently developed system, the improved KAERI Reference Disposal System Plus (KRS+), is to dispose of all SNFs in Korea with improved disposal area efficiency. In this paper, a system-level safety assessment model for the KRS+ is presented with long-term assessment results. A system-level model is used to evaluate the overall performance of the disposal system rather than simulating a single component. Because a repository site in Korea has yet to be selected, a conceptual model is used to describe the proposed disposal system. Some uncertain parameters are incorporated into the model for the future site selection process. These parameters include options for a fractured pathway in a geosphere, parameters for radionuclide migration, and repository design dimensions. Two types of SNF, PULS7 from a pressurized water reactor and Canada Deuterium Uranium from a heavy water reactor, were selected as a reference inventory considering the future cumulative stock of SNFs in Korea. The highest peak radiological dose to a representative public was estimated to be 8.19×10-4 mSv·yr-1, primarily from 129I. The proposed KRS+ design is expected to have a high safety margin that is on the order of two times lower than the dose limit criterion of 0.1 mSv·yr-1.

Manual model updating of highway bridges under operational condition

  • Altunisik, Ahmet C.;Bayraktar, Alemdar
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.39-46
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    • 2017
  • Finite element model updating is very effective procedure to determine the uncertainty parameters in structural model and minimize the differences between experimentally and numerically identified dynamic characteristics. This procedure can be practiced with manual and automatic model updating procedures. The manual model updating involves manual changes of geometry and analyses parameters by trial and error, guided by engineering judgement. Besides, the automated updating is performed by constructing a series of loops based on optimization procedures. This paper addresses the ambient vibration based finite element model updating of long span reinforced concrete highway bridges using manual model updating procedure. Birecik Highway Bridge located on the $81^{st}km$ of Şanliurfa-Gaziantep state highway over Firat River in Turkey is selected as a case study. The structural carrier system of the bridge consists of two main parts: Arch and Beam Compartments. In this part of the paper, the arch compartment is investigated. Three dimensional finite element model of the arch compartment of the bridge is constructed using SAP2000 software to determine the dynamic characteristics, numerically. Operational Modal Analysis method is used to extract dynamic characteristics using Enhanced Frequency Domain Decomposition method. Numerically and experimentally identified dynamic characteristics are compared with each other and finite element model of the arch compartment of the bridge is updated manually by changing some uncertain parameters such as section properties, damages, boundary conditions and material properties to reduce the difference between the results. It is demonstrated that the ambient vibration measurements are enough to identify the most significant modes of long span highway bridges. Maximum differences between the natural frequencies are reduced averagely from %49.1 to %0.6 by model updating. Also, a good harmony is found between mode shapes after finite element model updating.

Simulation method of ground motion matching for multiple targets and effects of fitting parameter variation on the distribution of PGD

  • Wang, Shaoqing;Yu, Ruifang;Li, Xiaojun;Lv, Hongshan
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.563-573
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    • 2019
  • When generating spectrum-compatible artificial ground motion in engineering practices, the effect of the variation in fitting parameters on the distribution of the peak ground displacement (PGD) has not yet drawn enough attention. In this study, a method for simulating ground motion matching for multiple targets is developed. In this method, a frequency-dependent amplitude envelope function with statistical parameters is introduced to simulate the nonstationarity of the frequency in earthquake ground motion. Then, several groups of time-history acceleration with different temporal and spectral nonstationarities were generated to analyze the effect of nonstationary parameter variations on the distribution of PGD. The following conclusions are drawn from the results: (1) In the simulation of spectrum-compatible artificial ground motion, if the acceleration time-history is generated with random initial phases, the corresponding PGD distribution is quite discrete and an uncertain number of PGD values lower than the limit value are observed. Nevertheless, the mean values of PGD always meet the requirement in every group. (2) If the nonstationary frequencies of the ground motion are taken into account when fitting the target spectrum, the corresponding PGD values will increase. A correlation analysis shows that the change in the mean and the dispersion values, from before the frequencies are controlled to after, correlates with the modal parameters of the predominant frequencies. (3) Extending the maximum period of the target spectrum will increase the corresponding PGD value and, simultaneously, decrease the PGD dispersion. Finally, in order to control the PGD effectively, the ground motion simulation method suggested in this study was revised to target a specified PGD. This novel method can generate ground motion that satisfies not only the required precision of the target spectrum, peak ground acceleration (PGA), and nonstationarity characteristics of the ground motion but also meets the required limit of the PGD, improving engineering practices.

Periodontal parameters in orthodontically tractioned teeth: A systematic review and meta-analysis

  • de Mattos, Paola Marques;Goncalves, Flavio Magno;Basso, Isabela Bittencourt;Ferraz, Aline Xavier;Zeigelboim, Bianca Simone;Stechman-Neto, Jose;Santos, Rosane Sampaio;de Araujo, Cristiano Miranda;Guariza-Filho, Odilon
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.420-431
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    • 2022
  • Objective: This systematic review aimed to evaluate periodontal parameters in orthodontically tractioned teeth compared with the respective non-tractioned contralateral teeth. Methods: Search strategies were developed for six electronic databases and gray literature. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed for the outcomes of interest. Furthermore, the certainty of the evidence was assessed using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) tool. Results: Overall, 2,082 articles were identified, of which 24 were selected for the qualitative synthesis. A significant difference was observed between the impacted and contralateral teeth (mean difference [MD] = 0.25; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.10-0.40; I2 = 0%) when the gingival index was evaluated. Additionally, impacted teeth showed a greater probing depth, with a significant mean difference between the groups (MD = 0.14; 95% CI = 0.07-0.20; I2 = 6%). Most studies had a low risk of bias; however, the certainty of the evidence was very low owing to the design of existing studies. Conclusions: The evidence in the literature indicated that tractioned teeth might show worsening of periodontal parameters related to the gingival index and probing depth; however, the evidence remains uncertain about this outcome. Furthermore, probing depth should be considered regarding its clinical significance because of the small effect size observed.

Finite element model updating effect on the structural behavior of long span concrete highway bridges

  • Altunisik, A.C.;Bayraktar, A.
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.745-765
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, it is aimed to determine the finite element model updating effects on the structural behavior of long span concrete highway bridges. Birecik Highway Bridge located on the 81stkm of Sanliurfa-Gaziantep state highway over Firat River in Turkey is selected as a case study. The bridge consist of fourteen spans, each of span has a nearly 26m. The total bridge length is 380m and width of bridge is 10m. Firstly, the analytical dynamic characteristics such as natural frequencies and mode shapes are attained from finite element analyses using SAP2000 program. After, experimental dynamic characteristics are specified from field investigations using Operational Modal Analysis method. Enhanced Frequency Domain Decomposition method in the frequency domain is used to extract the dynamic characteristics such as natural frequencies, mode shapes and damping ratios. Analytically and experimentally identified dynamic characteristics are compared with each other and finite element model of the bridge is updated to reduce the differences by changing of some uncertain parameters such as section properties, damages, boundary conditions and material properties. At the end of the study, structural performance of the highway bridge is determined under dead load, live load, and dynamic loads before and after model updating to specify the updating effect. Displacements, internal forces and stresses are used as comparison parameters. From the study, it is seen that the ambient vibration measurements are enough to identify the most significant modes of long span highway bridges. Maximum differences between the natural frequencies are reduced averagely from %46.7 to %2.39 by model updating. A good harmony is found between mode shapes after finite element model updating. It is demonstrated that finite element model updating has an important effect on the structural performance of the arch type long span highway bridge. Maximum displacements, shear forces, bending moments and compressive stresses are reduced %28.6, %21.0, %19.22, and %33.3-20.0, respectively.

Relationship of Test Methods of Impact Absorbing Effect of Floors from a viewpoint of Safety in Accidental Collisions (인체충돌시 바닥의 안전성에 관한 시험방법간 연관성 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Heon;Ji, Suk-Won;Yoon, Jung-Sik;Choi, Soo-Kyug;Seo, Chee-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.29-34
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    • 2011
  • Since the study of building performance design was first undertaken by Building Research Station in 1930s, the results of such study has been reported from many parts of the world, building construction codes and standards have been revised based on performance in advanced nations as well in Korea, and various performance certification systems are in operation. The purpose of this study is to build a database of performance certification systems to investigate the co-relationship of various test methods related to the same test items. As test methods for case study, we selected test methods involving collision of the human body. Through analysis of Critical fall height test of EN 1177 and Head Model test of JIS A 6519 about 8 species of floor test-bodies, it was found that there are limits of application in terms of the depth and strength of cushion. Furthermore, although the measured physical parameters are the same, when the co-relationship between test methods is uncertain, the various physical parameters may not be compatible with the results.

A study on simulation and performance improvement of industrial robot manipulator controller using adaptive model following control method (적응모델추종제어기법에 의한 산업용 로봇 매니퓰레이터 제어기의 성능개선 및 시뮬레이션에 관한 연구)

  • 허남수;한성현;이만형
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.463-477
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    • 1991
  • This study proposed a new method to design a robot manipulator control system capable of tracking the trajectories of joint angles in a reasonable accuracy to cover with actual situation of varying payload, uncertain parameters, and time delay. The direct adaptive model following control method has been used to improve existing industrial robot manipulator control system design. The proposed robot manipulator controller is operated by adjusting its gains based on the response of the manipulator in such a way that the manipulator closely matches the reference model trajectories predefined by the designer. The manipulator control system studied has two loops: they are an inner loop on adaptive model following controller to compensate nonlinearity in the manipulator dynamic equation and to decouple the coupling terms and an outer loop of state feedback controller with integral action to guarantee the stability of the adaptive scheme. This adaptation algorithm is based on the hyperstability approach with an improved Lyapunov function. The coupling among joints and the nonlinearity in the dynamic equation are explicitly considered. The designed manipulator controller shows good tracking performance in various cases, load variation, parameter uncertainties. and time delay. Since the proposed adaptive control method requires only a small number of parameters to be estimated, the controller has a relatively simple structure compared to the other adaptive manipulator controllers. Therefore, the method used is expected to be well suited for a high performance robot controller under practical operation environments.

Stability Analysis of Landslides using a Probabilistic Analysis Method in the Boeun Area (확률론적 해석기법을 이용한 보은지역의 사면재해 안정성분석)

  • Jeong, Nam-Soo;You, Kwang-ho;Park, Hyuck-Jin
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.247-257
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    • 2011
  • In this study the infinite slope model, one of the physical landslide models has been suggested to evaluate the susceptibility of the landslide. However, applying the infinite slope model in regional study area can be difficult or impossible because of the difficulties in obtaining and processing of large spatial data sets. With limited site investigation data, uncertainties were inevitably involved with. Therefore, the probabilistic analysis method such as Monte Carlo simulation and the GIS based infinite slope stability model have been used to evaluate the probability of failure. The proposed approach has been applied to practical example. The study area in Boeun area been selected since the area has been experienced tremendous amount of landslide occurrence. The geometric characteristics of the slope and the mechanical properties of soils like to friction angle and cohesion were obtained. In addition, coefficient of variation (COV) values in the uncertain parameters were varied from 10% to 30% in order to evaluate the effect of the uncertainty. The analysis results showed that the probabilistic analysis method can reduce the effect of uncertainty involved in input parameters.

The Simulation and Research of Information for Space Craft(Autonomous Spacecraft Health Monitoring/Data Validation Control Systems)

  • Kim, H;Jhonson, R.;Zalewski, D.;Qu, Z.;Durrance, S.T.;Ham, C.
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.81-89
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    • 2001
  • Space systems are operating in a changing and uncertain space environment and are desired to have autonomous capability for long periods of time without frequent telecommunications from the ground station At the same time. requirements for new set of projects/systems calling for ""autonomous"" operations for long unattended periods of time are emerging. Since, by the nature of space systems, it is desired that they perform their mission flawlessly and also it is of extreme importance to have fault-tolerant sensor/actuator sub-systems for the purpose of validating science measurement data for the mission success. Technology innovations attendant on autonomous data validation and health monitoring are articulated for a growing class of autonomous operations of space systems. The greatest need is on focus research effort to the development of a new class of fault-tolerant space systems such as attitude actuators and sensors as well as validation of measurement data from scientific instruments. The characterization for the next step in evolving the existing control processes to an autonomous posture is to embed intelligence into actively control. modify parameters and select sensor/actuator subsystems based on statistical parameters of the measurement errors in real-time. This research focuses on the identification/demonstration of critical technology innovations that will be applied to Autonomous Spacecraft Health Monitoring/Data Validation Control Systems (ASHMDVCS). Systems (ASHMDVCS).

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