• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertain Information

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A Study on G2 Risk and Export Diversification: Focusing on Export Support System for SMEs (수출다변화를 통한 G2 리스크 극복 방안에 관한 연구: 중소기업 수출지원 정책을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Don-Seung;Khoe, Kyung-Il
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.9 no.10
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    • pp.48-55
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    • 2019
  • This study argued problems and improvement of export support system for SMEs in the uncertain world global trade environment with G2(US-China) risk. In SMEs export support system, The authorities needs stronger control tower to promote consistent export support policies. There is also another problem of repetitious work that export support system has been operated by individual project. In order to overcome these problems, first, the authorities set clearly organization to control various export support policies. Second, export support system needs the efficient operation based on long term road map. Third, the authorities defines clear roles and responsibilities of supporting units, and enhances cooperation between the different organizations. Finally, the system should arrange performance evaluation index and feedback system to build the desirable export support system.

Quantification of future climate uncertainty over South Korea using eather generator and GCM

  • Tanveer, Muhammad Ejaz;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.154-154
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    • 2018
  • To interpret the climate projections for the future as well as present, recognition of the consequences of the climate internal variability and quantification its uncertainty play a vital role. The Korean Peninsula belongs to the Far East Asian Monsoon region and its rainfall characteristics are very complex from time and space perspective. Its internal variability is expected to be large, but this variability has not been completely investigated to date especially using models of high temporal resolutions. Due to coarse spatial and temporal resolutions of General Circulation Models (GCM) projections, several studies adopted dynamic and statistical downscaling approaches to infer meterological forcing from climate change projections at local spatial scales and fine temporal resolutions. In this study, stochastic downscaling methodology was adopted to downscale daily GCM resolutions to hourly time scale using an hourly weather generator, the Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN). After extracting factors of change from the GCM realizations, these were applied to the climatic statistics inferred from historical observations to re-evaluate parameters of the weather generator. The re-parameterized generator yields hourly time series which can be considered to be representative of future climate conditions. Further, 30 ensemble members of hourly precipitation were generated for each selected station to quantify uncertainty. Spatial map was generated to visualize as separated zones formed through K-means cluster algorithm which region is more inconsistent as compared to the climatological norm or in which region the probability of occurrence of the extremes event is high. The results showed that the stations located near the coastal regions are more uncertain as compared to inland regions. Such information will be ultimately helpful for planning future adaptation and mitigation measures against extreme events.

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VHTR Construction Ripple Effect Analysis Using Inter-Industry Tables (산업연관분석을 통한 초고온가스로 건설 파급효과 분석)

  • Lee, Tae-Hoon;Lee, Ki-Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.39-44
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    • 2015
  • The VHTR (Very High Temperature gas-cooled nuclear Reactor) has been considered as a major heat source and the most safe generation IV type reactor for mass hydrogen production to prepare for the hydrogen economy era. The VHTR satisfies goals for the GIF (Generation IV International Forum) policy such as sustainablility, economics, reliability and proliferation resistance and physical protection, and safety. As a part of a VHTR economic analysis, we have studied the VHTR construction cost and operation and maintenance cost. However, it is somewhat difficult to expect the ripple effect on the whole industry due to the lack of information about Inter-industries relationship. In many case, the ripple effect are based on experts' knowledge or uncertain qualitative assumptions. As a result, we propose quantitative analysis techniques for ripple effects such as the production inducement effect, added value inducement effect, and employment inducement effect for VHTR 600MWt${\times}$4 modules construction and operation ripple effect based on NOAK (Nth Of A Kind). Because inducement effect values have been published annually, we predict inducement effect's relation function and estimated values including production inducement effect value, added value inducement effect value, and employment inducement effect value using time series and estimated values are verified with published inducement effects' value. This paper presents a new method for the ripple effect and preliminary ripple effect consequence using a time series analysis and inter-industry table. This ripple effect analysis techniques can be applied to effect expectation analysis as well as other type reactor's ripple effect analysis including VHTR for process heat.

Determinants of Accessibility to Fintech Lending: A Case Study of Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs) in Indonesia

  • SAPTIA, Yeni;NUGROHO, Agus Eko;SOEKARNI, Muhammad;ERMAWATI, Tuti;SYAMSULBAHRI, Darwin;ASTUTY, Ernany Dwi;SUARDI, Ikval;YULIANA, Retno Rizki Dini
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.10
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    • pp.129-138
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    • 2021
  • Several studies have revealed that information on borrower characteristics plays an important factor in approving their credit requests. Though the extent to which such characteritics are also applicable to the case of fintech lending remain uncertain. The aim of this study is, thus, to investigate the determinant factors that influence MSEs in obtaining credit through fintech lending. Here, we emphasize virtual trust in fintech lending encompasing the dimension of social network, economic attributes, and risk perception based on several indicators that are used as proxies. Primary data used in the study was gathered from an online survey to the respondents of MSEs in Java. The result of the study indicates that determinants of MSEs in obtaining credit from lender through fintech lending are statistically influenced by internet usage activities, borrowing history, loan utilization, annuity payment system, completeness of credit requirement documents and compatibility of loan size with the business need. These factors have a significant effect on credit approval because they can generate virtual trust of fintech lender to MSEs as potential borrowers. It concludes that the probability of obtaining fintech loans in accordance with their expectations are influenced by the dimensions of social network, economic attributes and risk perception.

The effect of social support perceived by college students on career maturity: Mediating effect of career decision self-efficacy (전문대학생이 지각하는 사회적지지가 진로성숙도에 미치는 영향: 진로결정 자기효능감의 매개효과)

  • Choi, Young-Jin
    • Journal of the Health Care and Life Science
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.169-178
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    • 2021
  • As a result of the study, it was found that social support affects career maturity. It was confirmed that in order to increase the career maturity of junior college students, it is necessary to understand the interpersonal relationship including information and evaluation of the student environment, effective support, and emotional interest, and it is necessary to find a way to perceive high social support. In the effect of social support on career maturity, career decision self-efficacy was found to have a partial mediating effect. Instructors should support students who have anxiety about their uncertain future so that they can increase their self-esteem and self-efficacy so that they can enhance their career maturity.

An Empirical Analysis on the Structure and Conduct Methods of the World Rice Market: Focusing on the Top 4 Major Rice Exporting Countries (국제 쌀 시장에 대한 구조와 행위 분석: 주요 쌀 수출국들을 중심으로)

  • Kang, Hyunsoo
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.93-119
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyze the world rice market through structure and conduct frameworks utilizing annual data from 1970 to 2007. The world rice market has been unstable for much of the period post-World War II, with prices volatile and the availability of supplies uncertain. Therefore, analysis of the structure and conduct of the world rice market can provide information to better formulate the direction of future policies. Also, this paper will describe the effects of total production, export rice price, market concentration, and real exchange rate for exporting countries on total export rice volume. On basis of the expected results, the international rice market possesses market power with respects to static calculation and hypothesis test, and it will be demonstrated that exporting countries' currency crucially affects the exporting quantity and market power of those same exporting countries.

The Influence of the Locus of control of the Global Public Enterprises on the Job Involvement and Turnover Intention

  • Kim, Boem Soo;Choi, Pil Ho;Kim, Il Sik;Hwang, Il Yeong
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.83-92
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to reduce the costs required to proactively prevent the turnover intention by the results of personality type of locus of control. which is the behavioral outcome of the members of the organization. Based on this problem consciousness, the present study focused on the personal characteristics of the members of the organization in the enterprise. Among the individual characteristics, the intentions, which are distinct from others, are called personality, Focusing on the locus of control among these types of characteristics of the organization members, the study about how these control positions affect their job involvement and their turnover intention. The results validated in this study are summarized as follows. Among the personality types of the organization's members, internals are found to have higher job involvement than externals. In addition, it was found that internals among the personality types of the members of the organization lower the meaning of turnover intention than external member. In order to overcome uncertain management environment and create and sustain a competitive advantage in the organization, management has a weight-oriented trend and Increasing job involvement in organizational members and lowering their turnover intention will lead to continued productivity, among other things, important management items that managers and managers should pursue. Given these aspects, it is deemed necessary to analyze the personality aspects of the members of the organization and to transform and manage a new management mindset that leads to the enhancement of the personality as an internal rather than an external one and the task immersion of the members of the organization based on it.

A Study on the Evaluation of Importance of Factors Affecting the Vessel Value (선박가치 변화요인에 관한 중요도 평가 연구)

  • Choi, Jung-Suk;Namgung, Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 2022
  • The shipping industry is a service industry that operates its business by transporting cargo on ships and receiving freight. Therefore, large-scale capital investment is required for ship operation, and if the value of the ship is uncertain, the risk of shipping management increases. This study aims to identify the factors affecting changes in ship value and to analyze the importance of each variable. To achieve the goal, the factors affecting changes in ship value were identified and structured using the techniques of text mining and topic modeling, and classified into three main factors and 12 sub-factors. This study used AHP analysis to examine the relative importance of each factor. Results indicated that the main factor influencing the change in the vessel value was the shipping factor, followed by the investment factor and the environment factor. Other auxiliary factors that substantially affect the ship value include the volatility of the shipping market and of shipping freight.

The evolving classifications and epidemiological challenges surrounding chronic migraine and medication overuse headache: a review

  • Schembri, Emanuel;Barrow, Michelle;McKenzie, Christopher;Dawson, Andrew
    • The Korean Journal of Pain
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.4-13
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    • 2022
  • Changes in diagnostic criteria, for example, the various International Classification of Headache Disorders criteria, would lead to changes in the outcomes of epidemiological studies. International Classification of Headache Disorders-1 was based mainly on expert opinion, yet most of the diagnostic criteria were reliable and valid, but it did not include chronic migraine. In its second version, the classification introduced chronic migraine, but this diagnosis resembled more a high-frequency migraine rather than the actual migraine transformation process. It also introduced medication overuse headache, but it necessitated analgesic withdrawal and subsequent headache improvement to be diagnosed as such. Hence patients having medication overuse headache could only be diagnosed in retrospect, which was an awkward situation. Such restrictive criteria for chronic migraine and medication overuse headache omitted a high proportion of patients. International Classification of Headache Disorders-3 allows a diagnosis of medication overuse headache due to combination analgesics if taken for at least 10 days per month for more than three months. Hence the prevalence rate of medication overuse headache and chronic migraine can increase compared to the previous version of the headache classification. Different criteria have been used across studies to identify chronic migraine and medication overuse headache, and therefore the information acquired from previous studies using earlier criteria becomes uncertain. Hence much epidemiological research would need to be interpreted cautiously or repeated with the most updated criteria, since the subjects in studies that apply the latest criteria may be phenotypically different from those in older studies.

Physics-based modelling and validation of inter-granular helium behaviour in SCIANTIX

  • Giorgi, R.;Cechet, A.;Cognini, L.;Magni, A.;Pizzocri, D.;Zullo, G.;Schubert, A.;Van Uffelen, P.;Luzzi, L.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.7
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    • pp.2367-2375
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    • 2022
  • In this work, we propose a new mechanistic model for the treatment of helium behaviour at the grain boundaries in oxide nuclear fuel. The model provides a rate-theory description of helium inter-granular behaviour, considering diffusion towards grain edges, trapping in lenticular bubbles, and thermal resolution. It is paired with a rate-theory description of helium intra-granular behaviour that includes diffusion towards grain boundaries, trapping in spherical bubbles, and thermal re-solution. The proposed model has been implemented in the meso-scale software designed for coupling with fuel performance codes SCIANTIX. It is validated against thermal desorption experiments performed on doped UO2 samples annealed at different temperatures. The overall agreement of the new model with the experimental data is improved, both in terms of integral helium release and of the helium release rate. By considering the contribution of helium at the grain boundaries in the new model, it is possible to represent the kinetics of helium release rate at high temperature. Given the uncertainties involved in the initial conditions for the inter-granular part of the model and the uncertainties associated to some model parameters for which limited lower-length scale information is available, such as the helium diffusivity at the grain boundaries, the results are complemented by a dedicated uncertainty analysis. This assessment demonstrates that the initial conditions, chosen in a reasonable range, have limited impact on the results, and confirms that it is possible to achieve satisfying results using sound values for the uncertain physical parameters.