• International Journal of Contents
• /
• v.17 no.4
• /
• pp.52-61
• /
• 2021

The 2020 US Presidential Election was a highly-anticipated moment for our global society. During the election period, the most intriguing issue was who would be the winner-Trump or Biden? Among the possible main themes of the 2020 election, from the COVID-19 pandemic to racism, this study focused on feminism ('women') as a main component of Biden's victory. To explore the character of Biden's supporters, this paper focused on internet spaces as a source of public opinion. To guide the data analysis, this study employed four indices from empirical studies on Big Data analytics: issue salience, attention diversity, emotional mentioning, and semantic cohesion. The main finding of this study was that the representative keyword 'women' appeared more prevalently within content related to Biden than Trump, and the keyword pairs indicated that female voters were the main reason for Trump's failure but the root cause of Biden's victory. The results of this study indicated the role of the internet as a forum for public opinion and a fountain of political knowledge, which requires more rigorous investigation by researchers.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.30 no.2
• /
• pp.215-231
• /
• 2017

The US presidential primaries take place sequentially in different places with a time lag. However, they have not attracted as much attention in terms of modelling as the US presidential election has. This study applied several autologistic models to find the relation between the outcome of the primary election for a Democrat candidate with socioeconomic attributes in consideration of spatial and temporal dependence. According to the result applied to the 2016 election data at the county level, Hillary Clinton was supported by people in counties with high population rates of old age, Black, female and Hispanic. In addition, spatial dependence was observed, representing that people were likely to support the same candidate who was supported from neighboring counties. Positive auto-correlation was also observed in the time-series of the election outcome. Among several autologistic models of this study, the model specifying the effect of Super Tuesday had the best fit.

• The Southeast Asian review
• /
• v.28 no.2
• /
• pp.147-179
• /
• 2018

Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, Jakarta's Ex-Governor, lost his re-election bid in 2017 and then was jailed on a charge of blasphemy. After his defeat, the rhetorics of Indonesian politics was divided into two opposing sides: anti-Communism and 'pribumi' of the radical Islamic movements and Pancasila of the Jokowi administration. Although Islamic political parties are now preoccupied with their own coalitional politics and survivals, rather than solidarity of Islamic forces, the rising Islamic sentiments confirmed by the Jakarta election indicate that religion will continue to be a key variable in Indonesian politics. Meanwhile, ex-military generals who declared themselves as candidates in the 2018 regional election and the 2019 presidential election, as well as a few measures used by the Jokowi administration against extra-parliamentary political opponents, remind us of Suharto's New Order. Steady growth continues in economy. The raise of minimum wage enlarged middle classes and led to a decline of the poverty rate. Jokowi's commitment to building infrastructure has made tangible achievements. Under these circumstances, enhanced cooperation between Indonesia and South Korea is laudable, though any such cooperation must fully incorporate local sociocultural contexts, such as the strengthened halal certification system.

• Journal of Broadcast Engineering
• /
• v.25 no.1
• /
• pp.67-82
• /
• 2020

This study is based on the screen composition(shot size, split screen, candidate placement, lighting, stage) that fits the discussion process (round table, sitting, standing method) adopted from the 19th presidential candidates' TV joint discussion to analyze the adequacy and limitations of the methodology(design, candidate background, etc.). In addition, the progress and screen composition of the 45th US Presidential Candidates Debate in 2016 and the 25th Presidential Candidates of France TV Joint Debate in 2017 have been analyzed to compare and contrast the methods used in Korea. Through this, we apply the screening method to the 20th Presidential Candidate TV Joint Debate, which will be held in 2022, to fit the fixed discussion process that can fully identify candidates' qualities, policies, and vision.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.261-272
• /
• 2019

In this paper, we propose a procedure to build a prediction interval of the sum of dependent binary random variables over a graph to account for the dependence among binary variables. Our main interest is to find a prediction interval of the weighted sum of dependent binary random variables indexed by a graph. This problem is motivated by the prediction problem of various elections including Korean National Assembly and US presidential election. Traditional and popular approaches to construct the prediction interval of the seats won by major parties are normal approximation by the CLT and Monte Carlo method by generating many independent Bernoulli random variables assuming that those binary random variables are independent and the success probabilities are known constants. However, in practice, the survey results (also the exit polls) on the election are random and hardly independent to each other. They are more often spatially correlated random variables. To take this into account, we suggest a spatial auto-regressive (AR) model for the surveyed success probabilities, and propose a residual based bootstrap procedure to construct the prediction interval of the sum of the binary outcomes. Finally, we apply the procedure to building the prediction intervals of the number of legislative seats won by each party from the exit poll data in the $19^{th}$ and $20^{th}$ Korea National Assembly elections.

• The Southeast Asian review
• /
• v.28 no.1
• /
• pp.83-120
• /
• 2018

For Singapore, 2017 was an uneasy year. The presidential election was fraught with controversy since the revised Presidential Election Act allowed only one candidate to be eligible for the election. The bitter feud between Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and his siblings shocked many Singaporeans. Succession planning for the next top leadership is still veiled in obscurity. The anti-globalization trend and the increasing pressure to raise the tax have become major challenges for Singapore's economy to overcome. China's continuous diplomatic pressure has called into the question Singapore's pragmatic foreign policy. Although its relations with China were back to normal, Singapore, the ASEAN chair in 2018, is still facing intractable problems in safeguarding ASEAN centrality in the growing US-China rivalry. In the meantime, Singapore has pursued its diversity and equality, heading toward a more matured multi-racial and multi-cultural society in 2017. The first female president, Halimah Yacob, served as a symbolic epitome of Singapore's emphasis on diversity and harmony among different ethnic groups and minorities. This great milestone, however, has largely been questioned by Singaporeans, as it seemed to be a political gesture that only utilized Halimah's double minority in the level of ideologies. The election of the Malay president has led Singaporeans to think about the real equity and equality among minorities, while strongly motivated to move toward a more inclusive society. In 2018, Singaporean leaders will try to resolve many challenging problems by reaffirming leadership succession planning, which is expected to lead Singapore to pursue a more integrated society.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
• /
• v.13 no.3
• /
• pp.181-188
• /
• 2009

Hundreds of thousands of South Korean protesters staged candlelight vigils and demonstrations against US beef imports in 2008. The problems, however, went far beyond that of beef imports. The political party veterans, who lost the presidential election, exploited labor unions that were discontent with the economy and ideological student groups to weaken the majority party. In this study, an epidemiological model is constructed with a system of three nonlinear differential equations. The model seeks to examine the dynamics of the system through stability analysis. Two threshold conditions that spread the protests are identified and a sensitivity analysis on the conditions is performed to isolate the parameters to which the system is most responsive. The results are also explored by deterministic simulations. This model can be easily modified to apply to other protests that may occur in various circumstances.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.13 no.3
• /
• pp.352-361
• /
• 2013

The purpose of this study is to analyse the impact of macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic forces on the management performance of the air transport firms and offer the useful information to the managers. To conduct the regression analysis, eight macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic variables were selected individually as an independent variable. Macroeconomic variables were the return of corporate bond, West Texas Intermediate, the unemployment rate, the money supply, the trade balance, the won to USD exchange rate, the consumer price index and the index of industrial production. And non-macroeconomic variables were Taiwan earthquake, the Asian economic crisis, the 911 terrorist attacks in the US, the Iraq war, Beijing Olympic, the outbreak of a swine flu epidemic, the 1st presidential election and the 2nd presidential election. And ROA was selected as a dependent variable. As the result of analysis, it was found that the changing rates of won to USD exchange rate and consumer price index affected the changing rate of ROA significantly. And also as the result of analysing the impact of two significant macroeconomic variables and eight non-macroeconomic variables on the changing rate of ROA, it was found that the Asian economic crisis and the outbreak of a swine flu epidemic had a negative impact on it. Therefore managers should take note of a change in macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic variables carefully to improve the management performance.

• Convergence Security Journal
• /
• v.17 no.5
• /
• pp.111-119
• /
• 2017

As of March 2017, fake news is largely focused on political issues. Outside the country, main issues of the fake news have been a hot topic in the US presidential election in 2016 and emerged as a new political and social problem in countries like Germany and France. In Korea, issues of the fake news are also linked with political issues such as presidential impeachment and prosecution, impeachment quota, early election, etc. This phenomenon has recently led to the production and spread of fake news related to safety and security issues as well as political issues in connection with various methods of generating articles and sharing information. As a result, there is a high possibility that the information will be transformed into information that can cause considerable confusion to the public. Therefore, the recognition of such problems means that it is important at this point to consider the related situation analysis and effective countermeasures. To do this, we tried to make accurate and meaningful analysis for the diagnosis, analysis, forecasting and management of issues utilizing Big Data. As a result, it is found that the fake news is continuously generated in relation to the safety and security issue as well as the political issue in the South Korea, and differs from the general form occurring outside the country.

• Analyses & Alternatives
• /
• v.6 no.2
• /
• pp.79-115
• /
• 2022

This study aims to account for electoral choice in the 2020 presidential election by focusing on social identity which forms the basis for core partisan groups. Two views compete to explain the origins of polarization, policy versus party. One emphasizes policy as more influential in choosing presidential candidates. This follows the tradition of retrospective voting theory in which voters' choice rely on government performance. Incumbent president whose performance proves well are rewarded to be reelected. Policy performance is based on measures around distinctive preferences for government spending. Republican Individuals prefer individual responsibility to government support, while Democratic counterparts support government support. Another perspective put an emphasis on the role partisanship which favors in-party members and disfavors partisan out-groups. Interparty animosity plays the key role in determining electoral behavior. This study relies on the Views of the Electorate Research (VOTER) Survey which provides a panel data of several waves from 2011 to 2020. A comparative evaluation of two views highlights three findings. First, policy matters. Policy preferences of voters are the primary drives of political behavior. Electoral outcomes in 2020 turned out to be the results of policy considerations of voters. 53.7 percent of voters tilted toward individual responsibility voted for Trump, whereas 70.4 percent of those favorable views of government support than individual responsibility voted for Biden. Thus effects of policy correspond to a positive difference of 26.4 percent points. Second, partisanship effects are of similar extent in influencing electoral choice of candidates: Democrats are less likely to vote for Trump by 42.4 percent points, while Republicans are less likely to vote for Biden by 48.7 percent points. Third, animosity of Republicans toward Democrat core groups creates 26.5 percent points of favoring Trump over Biden. Democrat animosity toward Republican core groups creates a positive difference of 13.7 percent points of favoring Biden.