EPIDEMIOLOGICAL APPROACH TO THE SOUTH KOREAN BEEF PROTESTS WITH HIDDEN AGENDA

  • Do, Tae-Sug (DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS EDUCATION, KWANDONG UNIVERSITY) ;
  • Lee, Young-S. (DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTER SCIENCE, MANCHESTER COLLEGE)
  • Received : 2008.12.16
  • Accepted : 2009.06.02
  • Published : 2009.09.25

Abstract

Hundreds of thousands of South Korean protesters staged candlelight vigils and demonstrations against US beef imports in 2008. The problems, however, went far beyond that of beef imports. The political party veterans, who lost the presidential election, exploited labor unions that were discontent with the economy and ideological student groups to weaken the majority party. In this study, an epidemiological model is constructed with a system of three nonlinear differential equations. The model seeks to examine the dynamics of the system through stability analysis. Two threshold conditions that spread the protests are identified and a sensitivity analysis on the conditions is performed to isolate the parameters to which the system is most responsive. The results are also explored by deterministic simulations. This model can be easily modified to apply to other protests that may occur in various circumstances.

References

  1. "South Korea relaxes US beef ban", BBC News (18 April 2008)
  2. "Transcript of remarks by agriculture secretary Mike Johanns concerning U.S. beef exports", United States Department of Agriculture
  3. "MBC needs to acknowledge its mistakes", Chosun Daily News (May 21, 2008)
  4. K. Kawachi, M. Seki, H. Yoshida, Y. Otake, K. Warashina, and H. Ueda, A Rumor Transition Model with Various Contact Interactions, Journal of Theoretical Biology 253 (2008)
  5. A. Rapoport and L. Rebhun, On the Theory of Rumor Spread, Bulletin of Mathematical Biophysics 14 (1952)
  6. Bauer, F., and C. Castillo-Chavez. Mathematical Models in Population Biology and Epidemilogy, Springer-Verlag, NY 2001
  7. R. Fortell, R. Green, and J. Pick. "Which are the largest? Why published populations for major world urban areas vary so greatly?", City Futures Conference, University of Illinois at Chicago, July 2004
  8. Korean Statistical Information Service