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A Machine Learning Univariate Time series Model for Forecasting COVID-19 Confirmed Cases: A Pilot Study in Botswana

  • Mphale, Ofaletse;Okike, Ezekiel U;Rafifing, Neo
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.225-233
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    • 2022
  • The recent outbreak of corona virus (COVID-19) infectious disease had made its forecasting critical cornerstones in most scientific studies. This study adopts a machine learning based time series model - Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast COVID-19 confirmed cases in Botswana over 60 days period. Findings of the study show that COVID-19 confirmed cases in Botswana are steadily rising in a steep upward trend with random fluctuations. This trend can also be described effectively using an additive model when scrutinized in Seasonal Trend Decomposition method by Loess. In selecting the best fit ARIMA model, a Grid Search Algorithm was developed with python language and was used to optimize an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) metric. The best fit ARIMA model was determined at ARIMA (5, 1, 1), which depicted the least AIC score of 3885.091. Results of the study proved that ARIMA model can be useful in generating reliable and volatile forecasts that can used to guide on understanding of the future spread of infectious diseases or pandemics. Most significantly, findings of the study are expected to raise social awareness to disease monitoring institutions and government regulatory bodies where it can be used to support strategic health decisions and initiate policy improvement for better management of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Reducing Rural-Urban Education Gap in Uganda Through ICT Appropriate Technology (우간다의 도시-농촌 간 교육 불균형 해소를 위한 ICT 적정기술)

  • Roh, Hyosun
    • Journal of Appropriate Technology
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2021
  • The government of Uganda, which belongs to East Africa, approved the National Vison Statement, "A transformed Ugandan society from a Peasant to a Modern and Prosperous Country within 30 years". However, the Uganda is facing the problem of unbalanced development between urban and rural area in spite of the government's efforts. In particular, the urban-rural education gap is emerging as a problem that could negatively affect national development plans. In this paper, we explain the reasons why Uganda's urban-rural educational imbalance is accelerating. In addition, we would like to introduce a way to reduce the educational imbalance by using appropriate technology of ICT such as the electronic library system.

Characteristics and Production Period of Goryo(高麗) Iron 'Sung(成)' Inscribed Celadon (고려(高麗) 철화(鐵畵) '성(成)' 명청자(銘靑瓷)의 특징(特徵)과 제작시기(製作時期))

  • Han, Sung Uk
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.61-78
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    • 2008
  • Celadons painted in underglaze iron brown 'Sung(成)' inscription are characteristic celadons excavated only at the No. 7 kiln site located at Sadang-ri(沙堂里), Daegu-myeon(大口面), Gangjin-gun(康津郡), Jeollanamdo(全羅南道), Korea and has inscription in the inner center of the foot by brush. The inscription was marked where it is not easily seen. it can be assumed that since it showed a variety of hand writings, many people were involved in manufacturing these celadons and the 'Sung' inscription was marked after workshop rather than manufacturer. It was also found that quality of glaze, paste, shape, pattern and firing method were same and these were manufactured with the same techniques in the same period. Kinds of these celadons were mainly sets of tablewares including bowl with handle, bowl, plate, cup, bowl with cover and bottle. Raised relief designs using extrusion technic were especially preferred rather than incised designs and inlaid designs. Cases of using inlaid designs were not frequently found compared to incised designs, thus it can be assumed that in this period, inlaid designs were not generally used. Special designs having the meaning of authority or dignity such as chrysanthemum, peony, parrot and lotus plate designs were not found. Foot was molded with 'U' type except some bowls with cover and plates and firing was done after glazing the whole surface of the ceramic with the support of quartzite at 3 to 4 places of inner bottom of foot. Production period of these celadons with 'Sung' inscription can not be confirmed from other excavation sites outside of No. 7 kiln site at Sadang-ri since there are no other excavation sites whose relics bear 'Sung' inscription. Through comparison research with other relics bear the characteristics of these celadons from tombs, temple sites, shipwrecks, production period of these celadons with 'Sung' inscription can be assumed as second quarter of 13th century. And since the quality of these celadons are generally inferior to the top-quality celadons which were supplied to royal familes and high-ranking aristocrats, it can be deducted that these celadons with 'Sung' inscription were supplied to classes lower than royal familes and high-ranking aristocrats. So it is considered that Celadons with 'Sung' inscription have a great significance as a chronological material to complement the blank of the first half of the 13th century because most of celadons with raised relief designs and engraved relief designs were attributed to 12th century, the period of prosperity.

반응표면분석을 이용한 음식물쓰레기의 효소학적 가수분해 조건의 최적화

  • Kim, Gyeong-Cheol;Kim, Seong-Hui;Cheon, Hwa-Yeong;Kim, Seong-Jun
    • 한국생물공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2003.04a
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    • pp.439-444
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    • 2003
  • The major factors related in enzymatic hydrolysis of food waste using cellulolytic enzymes of Trichoderma harzianum FJ1 were optimized by response surface analysis. The factors largely affecting to the reducing sugar concentration and enzymatic saccharification rate of food waste such as substrate concentration ($X_1$, %), enzyme concentration ($X_2$, U/ml), and reaction time ($X_3$, hr) were employed. A quadratic polynominal expressing the reducing sugar (RS) concentration relating with the above factors was as follows : RS (g/l) = -17.80 + $5.04X_1$ + $51.37X_2$ + $1.21X_3$ - $0.11X_1\;^2$ - $38.86X_2\;^2$ - $0.03X_3\;^2$ + $1.64X_1X_2$ + $0.04X_1X_3$ - $0.70X_2X_3$ ($R^2$=0.9939). The maximum value of the reducing sugar concentration and saccharification rate were obtained in the conditions of substrate concentration of 18.2%, enzyme concentration of 0.78 U/ml, and reaction time of 19 hr, respectively. The predicated reducing sugar concentration and saccharification rate by the response surface methodology were 95.13 g/l and 47.27%, respectively.

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Cyclic Seismic Testing of Concrete-filled U-shaped Steel Beam-to-Steel Column Connections (콘크리트채움 U형 강재보-강재기둥 합성 내진접합부에 대한 주기하중 실험)

  • Park, Hong-Gun;Lee, Cheol-Ho;Park, Chang-Hee;Hwang, Hyeon-Jong;Lee, Chang-Nam;Kim, Hyoung-Seop;Kim, Sung-Bae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.337-347
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    • 2011
  • In this study, seismic resistance of concrete encased U-shaped steel beam-to-steel H-shaped column connections was evaluated. Three specimens of the beam-to-column connection were tested under cyclic loading. The composite beam was integrated with concrete slab using studs. Re-bars for negative moment were placed in the slab. The primary test parameter was the details of the connections, which are strengthening and weakening strategies for the beam end and the degree of composite action. The depth of the composite beams was 600mm including the slab thickness. The steel beam and the re-bars in the slab were weld-connected to the steel column. For the strengthening strategy, cover plates were weld-connected to the bottom and top flanges of the steel beam. For the weakening strategy, a void using styrofoam box was located inside the core concrete at the potential plastic hinge zone. The test results showed that the fully composite specimens exhibited good strength, deformation, and energy dissipation capacities. The deformation capacity of the beam exceeded 4% rotation angle, which is the requirement for the Special Moment Frame.

A Study of Statistic Behavior of Segmental U-shaped Prestressed Concrete Girder Applied with Integrated Tensioning Systems (복합긴장방식이 적용된 세그멘탈 U형 거더 정적 거동 연구)

  • Hyunock Jang;Ilyoung Jang
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.329-338
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study verified the safety of the improved box-type girder behavior by comparing and evaluating the bending behavior results of a full-scale specimen based on the analytical behavior of the splice element PSC U-shaped girder with integrated tensioning systems. Method: Based on the results of the service and strength limit state design using the bridge design standard(limit state design method), the applied load of a 40m full-scale specimen was calculated and a static loading experiment using the four-point loading method was performed. Result: When the design load, crack load, and ultimate load were applied, the specimen deflection occurred at 97.1%, 98.5%, and 79.0% of the analytical deflection value. When the design load, crack load, and ultimate load were applied, the crack gauge was measured at 0.009~0.035mm, 0.014~0.050mm, and 6.383~5.522mm at each connection. Conclusion: The specimen behaved linear-elastically until the crack load was applied, and after cracks occurred, it showed strainhardening up to the ultimate load, and it was confirmed that the resistance of bending behavior was clearly displayed against the applied load. The cracks in the dry joints were less than 25% of grade B based on the evaluation of facility condition standard. The final residual deformation after removing the ultimate load was 0.114mm, confirming the stable behavior of the segment connection.

The Characteristics of Hybrid Visual Direction of Musical Animation Film -Focusing on - (뮤지컬 애니메이션 영화의 혼성적 영상연출 특성 -<겨울왕국, 2013>을 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Hae-Ra;Lee, Hyun-Seok
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.15 no.12
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    • pp.50-60
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    • 2015
  • The animation film , which became a worldwide sensation with its theme song 'Let it go', did not only rank first in the U.S. box office - it was also the greatest box office hit in the history of Disney animation. Why did , recreated into a musical animation, become a worldwide success and what were the characteristics of its materialized hybrid visual direction technique? In order to look into this, firstly, literature on musicals and animations were studied, and secondly, analysis standards were drawn for musical characteristics of musicals and direction techniques of animations. Thirdly, analyzation and investigation will be conducted on hybrid visual direction techniques based on the research above with as the example. Through this study, it's known that realizes its musical features such as 'exaggerated acting,' 'delivering the meaning of circumstances', 'dramatic expression of emotion' and etc. through animated characters and that its background music is aided by 'narrative features' through its musical composition. Besides, its snow effect through animated VFX composing scenes along with its musical characteristics realizes hybrid image direction. It can be said that image directing effects of musical animations through hybrid grafting and the characteristics of image aesthetics generate public demands worldwide.

Effect of lining application techniques on microleakage in class II composite restorations (다양한 방식으로 적용한 이장재가 2급와동 복합레진 수복의 미세누출에 미치는 영향)

  • Hwang, Byung-Moon;Kim, Joo-Hyung;Park, Ji-Man;Millstein, Philip;Park, Eun-Jin
    • Journal of Dental Rehabilitation and Applied Science
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.145-151
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the microleakage in class II cavity resin restorations used with resin-modified glass ionomer (RMGI) lining material depending on two different applying methods; classical delivery method using a dental explorer and a specially designed rotating bur. Materials and Methods: A total thirty-six extracted teeth were prepared with a class II proximal box, and randomly divided into three groups: 1) control group with no lining added and the proximal box restored (Group I), 2) the second group used RMGI as a lining material which was spread with an explorer (Group II), 3) the third group used a specially designed rotating bur to thin out RMGI (Group III). All teeth were restored with the same manner using incrementally placed resin composite. All 36 teeth were prepared and sectioned for the dye penetration test, and observed with a stereomicroscope for scoring the dye penetration. Results: When RMGI liners were used, both groups using an explorer and the special bur with the liner had significantly less microleakage than the control group with no liner (P < 0.05). The 50% of the group with RMGI liner using the bur showed no microleakage under a dye penetration test whereas all the teeth in control group showed microleakage of different degrees. However, there was no statistically significant difference between Group II and Group III. Conclusion: RMGI is an effective lining material to decrease microleakage in class II composite resin restorations regardless of applying methods.

Performance Evaluation of YOLOv5s for Brain Hemorrhage Detection Using Computed Tomography Images (전산화단층영상 기반 뇌출혈 검출을 위한 YOLOv5s 성능 평가)

  • Kim, Sungmin;Lee, Seungwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2022
  • Brain computed tomography (CT) is useful for brain lesion diagnosis, such as brain hemorrhage, due to non-invasive methodology, 3-dimensional image provision, low radiation dose. However, there has been numerous misdiagnosis owing to a lack of radiologist and heavy workload. Recently, object detection technologies based on artificial intelligence have been developed in order to overcome the limitations of traditional diagnosis. In this study, the applicability of a deep learning-based YOLOv5s model was evaluated for brain hemorrhage detection using brain CT images. Also, the effect of hyperparameters in the trained YOLOv5s model was analyzed. The YOLOv5s model consisted of backbone, neck and output modules. The trained model was able to detect a region of brain hemorrhage and provide the information of the region. The YOLOv5s model was trained with various activation functions, optimizer functions, loss functions and epochs, and the performance of the trained model was evaluated in terms of brain hemorrhage detection accuracy and training time. The results showed that the trained YOLOv5s model is able to provide a bounding box for a region of brain hemorrhage and the accuracy of the corresponding box. The performance of the YOLOv5s model was improved by using the mish activation function, the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) optimizer function and the completed intersection over union (CIoU) loss function. Also, the accuracy and training time of the YOLOv5s model increased with the number of epochs. Therefore, the YOLOv5s model is suitable for brain hemorrhage detection using brain CT images, and the performance of the model can be maximized by using appropriate hyperparameters.

The effect of reinforcing methods on fracture strength of composite inlay bridge (강화재의 사용 방법이 복합 레진 인레이 브릿지의 파괴 강도에 미치는 영향)

  • Byun, Chang-Won;Park, Sang-Hyuk;Sang-Jin, Park;Choi, Kyoung-Kyu
    • Restorative Dentistry and Endodontics
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.111-120
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effects of surface treatment and composition of reinforcement material on fracture strength of fiber reinforced composite inlay bridges. The materials used for this study were I-beam, U-beam TESCERA ATL system and ONE STEP(Bisco, IL, USA). Two kinds of surface treatments were used; the silane and the sandblast. The specimens were divided into 11 groups through the composition of reinforcing materials and the surface treatments. On the dentiform, supposing the missing of Maxillary second pre-molar and indirect composite inlay bridge cavities on adjacent first pre-molar disto-occlusal cavity, first molar mesio-occlusal cavity was prepared with conventional high-speed inlay bur. The reinforcing materials were placed on the proximal box space and build up the composite inlay bridge consequently. After the curing, specimen was set on the testing die with ZPC. Flexural force was applied with universal testing machine (EZ-tester; Shimadzu, Japan). at a cross-head speed of 1 mm/min until initial crack occurred. The data was analyzed using one-way ANOVA/Scheffes post-hoc test at 95% significance level. Groups using I-beam showed the highest fracture strengths (p<0.05) and there were no significant differences between each surface treatment (p>0.05) Most of the specimens in groups that used reinforcing material showed delamination. 1. The use of I-beam represented highest fracture strengths (p<0.05) 2. In groups only using silane as a surface treatment showed highest fracture strength, but there were no significant differences between other surface treatments (p>0.05). 3. The reinforcing materials affect the fracture strength and pattern of composites inlay bridge. 4 The holes at the U-beam did not increase the fracture strength of composites inlay bridge.