• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권5호
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• pp.1959-1964
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• 2015

Purpose: To investigate the distribution of liver cancer mortality as well as its developing trend from 1991 to 2012, forecast the future five-year trend, and provide a basis for the comprehensive prevention and management. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for liver cancer in China from 1991 to 2012 were used to describe characteristics and distribution of liver cancer mortality. Trend surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of liver cancer mortality. Curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression were used to predict and forecast future trends. Results: The mortality rate of liver cancer has constantly increased in China since 1991. Rates in rural areas are higher than in urban areas, and in males are higher than in females. In addition, our data predicted that the trend will continue to increase in the next 5 years. The age-specific mortality of liver cancer increases with age and peaks in the group of 80-84 years old. Geographical analysis showed the liver mortality rate was higher in the southeast provinces, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong, and southwest regions like Guangxi Province. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in China has consistently increased from 1991 to 2012, and the upward trend is predicted to continue in the future. Much better prevention and management of liver cancer is needed in high mortality areas (the southwestern and southeastern parts of China) and high mortality age groups (80- to 84-year-olds), especially in rural areas.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.241-249
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• 2009

It is well known that the trend of water demand in large-size water supply systems has been suddenly changed, and many expansions of water supply facilities become unnecessary. To be cost-effective, thus, politicians as well as many professionals lay stress on the adaptive management of water supply facilities. Failure in adapting to the new trend of demand is sure to be the most critical reason of unnecessary expansions. Hence, we try to develop the model and modeling procedure that do not depend on the old data of demand, and provide engineers with the fast learning process. To forecast water demand of Seoul, the Bayesian parameter estimation was applied, which is a representative method for statistical pattern recognition. It results that we can get a useful time-series model after observing water demand during 6 years, although trend of water demand were suddenly changed.

• 복식
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• 제31권
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• pp.33-46
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• 1997

The purpose of this study was to investigate color planning method for apparel fashion de-sign and to present the method of analysis of green color. Theoretical backgrouds of color planning for fashion design were scrutinized by documentary studies Fashion color planning has been developed through 4 steps: analysis of color environment analysis of color psy-chology presentation of coordination appli-cation to fashion design. Green color environment consisted of mar-ket informations and forecast informations The former were collected by color samples which were used for women's apparel of national brands from '93 spring/summer to '96 spring/summer and the latter were analyzed by fashion forecasting books. Green color psy-chology was investigated through the docu-mentary studiess. image of green color and these expressed in fashion were revealed through documentary studies. The results of this study were as follow: 1. 117 green color samples were collected from domestic womens brand. The character-istic of samples were the yellow green in hue and pale light bright in tone. forecast infor-mation was collected through fashion forecasting books from abroad and adaption of forecast information was investigated by mak-ing a comparison forecasting information be-tween market information. In consequence national market colors reflected the forecast information in concurrence with the character-istic colors of national women's apparel. 2. Affirmative images of green were nature youth health and abundance and negative images were extraordinary misfortune wind-fall. in these images nature youth and health were mostly used in fashion.

• Child Health Nursing Research
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.483-493
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• 2001

This study is attempted to define risk factor of youth runaway impulse and to structure forecast model through an extensive analysis of the factors influencing the runaway impulse of youth. The subjects were 610 high school students in Seoul and Kyunggido. The collected data was analysed by SAS. The differences between the runaway impulse group and the non-runaway impulse group were subject to chi-square and t-test. Also logistic regression analysis was conducted on the basis of purposeful selection method for constructing the forecast model. The findings are as follows : the major predicting factors of youth runaway impulse are sex(odds ratio=1.886, p=.009), existence of friends of the opposit sex(odds ratio=2.011, p=.007), anti-social personality(odds ratio= 4.953, p=.000), depressive trend(odds ratio= 2.695, p=.000), family structure(odds ratio= 5.381, p=.000), marital relationship(odds ratio =1.893, p=.009) and also between parents and youth(odds ratio=3.877, p=.000), emotional abuse(odds ratio=1.963, p=.003), authoritative controlled rearing(odds ratio=2.135, p=.005) and stress from school(odds ratio=1.924, p=.008). Therefore, the forecast model will be contribute to the nursing intervention for prevention of runaway youth.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제14권6호
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• pp.1385-1397
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• 2018

There are many factors that affect the wind speed. In addition, the randomness of wind speed also leads to low prediction accuracy for wind speed. According to this situation, this paper constructs the short-time forecasting model based on the least squares support vector machines (LSSVM) to forecast the wind speed. The basis of the model used in this paper is support vector regression (SVR), which is used to calculate the regression relationships between the historical data and forecasting data of wind speed. In order to improve the forecast precision, historical data is clustered by cluster analysis so that the historical data whose changing trend is similar with the forecasting data can be filtered out. The filtered historical data is used as the training samples for SVR and the parameters would be optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO). The forecasting model is tested by actual data and the forecast precision is more accurate than the industry standards. The results prove the feasibility and reliability of the model.

• 한국의류학회지
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• 제46권6호
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• pp.963-986
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• 2022

This article surveys the fashion forecasting industry in Korean domestic markets. With the rise of new media and devices with high technology, the paradigm of fashion trends forecasting systems has dramatically changed. New perspectives of trend forecasting are required to understand the trend flow and consumer behavior of the MZ generation. The research questions are as follows: 1) Major trend forecasting companies studied the development of their strategies and new forecasting methods. 2) The consumers' needs in the domestic market were analyzed. The influence of the trend companies' forecasting on the market was investigated. The results are as follows: 1) International trend forecasting significantly affected the domestic market. The concordance rate between consumers' online searches about fashion trends was approximately 70.14%. The match rate by category is as follows: The highest rate, 85.06% is from pattern and print, color is 83.92%, the item is 80.39%, and style is 54.32%. 2) Specialized information such as the Pantone color chart is being widely consumed, leading to a trend among the masses. 3) The Korean-specific socio-cultural background has an impact on domestic trends.

• 한국IT서비스학회지
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.49-61
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• 2020

Prior studies on technology predictions attempted to predict the emergence and spread of emerging technologies through the analysis of correlations and changes between data using objective data such as patents and research papers. Most of the previous studies predicted future technologies only from the viewpoint of technology development. Therefore, this study intends to conduct technical forecasting from the perspective of the consumer by using keyword search frequency of search portals such as NAVER before and after the introduction of emerging technologies. In this study, we analyzed healthcare technologies into three types : measurement technology, platform technology, and remote service technology. And for the keyword analysis on the healthcare, we converted the classification of technology perspective into the keyword classification of consumer perspective. (Blood pressure and blood sugar, healthcare diagnosis, appointment and prescription, and remote diagnosis and prescription) Naver Trend is used to analyze keyword trends from a consumer perspective. We also used the ARIMA model as a technology prediction model. Analyzing the search frequency (Naver trend) over 44 months, the final ARIMA models that can predict three types of healthcare technology keyword trends were estimated as "ARIMA (1,2,1) (1,0,0)", "ARIMA (0,1,0) (1,0,0)", "ARIMA (1,1,0) (0,0,0)". In addition, it was confirmed that the values predicted by the time series prediction model and the actual values for 44 months were moving in almost similar patterns in all intervals. Therefore, we can confirm that this time series prediction model for healthcare technology is very suitable.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권17호
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• pp.7991-7995
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• 2015

Background: To identify the epidemiological characteristics of colorectal cancer mortality in China during the period of 1991-2011, and forecast the future five-year trend. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for colorectal cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe epidemiological characteristics in terms of age group, gender, and rural/urban residence. Trend surface analysis was performed to analyze the geographical distribution of colorectal cancer. Four models including curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling and joinpoint regression were applied to forecast the trends for the future five years. Results: Since 1991 the colorectal cancer mortality rate increased yearly, and our results showed that the trend would continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. The mortality rate in males was higher than that of females and the rate in urban areas was higher than in rural areas. The mortality rate was relatively low for individuals less than 60 years of age, but increased dramatically afterwards. People living in the northeastern China provinces or in eastern China had a higher mortality rate for colorectal cancer than those living in middle or western China provinces. Conclusions: The steadily increasing mortality of colorectal cancer in China will become a substantial public health burden in the foreseeable future. For this increasing trend to be controlled, further efforts should concentrate on educating the general public to increase prevention and early detection by screening. More effective prevention and management strategies are needed in higher mortality areas (Eastern parts of China) and high-risk populations (60+ years old).

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권14호
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• pp.5829-5834
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• 2015

Objective: To describe and analyze the epidemiological characteristics of lung cancer mortality in China from 1991 to 2013, forecast the future five-year trend and provide scientific evidence for prevention and management of lung cancer. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for lung cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe epidemiological characteristics. Trend surface analysis was applied to analyze the geographical distribution of lung cancer. Four models, curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression, were performed to forecast the trend for the future. Results: Since 1991 the mortality rate of lung cancer increased yearly. The rate for males was higher than that for females and rates in urban areas were higher than in rural areas. In addition, our results showed that the trend will continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. The mortality rate increased from age 45-50 and peaked in the group of 85 years old. Geographical analysis indicated that people living in northeast China provinces and the coastal provinces in eastern China had a higher mortality rate for lung cancer than those living in the centre or western Chinese provinces. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of lung cancer has constantly increased from 1991 to 2013, and been predicted to continue in the ensuing 5 years. Further efforts should be concentrated on education of the general public to increase prevention and early detection. Much better prevention and management is needed in high mortality areas (northeastern and eastern parts of China) and high risk populations (45-50-year-olds).

• 전기전자학회논문지
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.13-23
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• 2017

공항의 안정적인 운영을 위하여 승객의 단기예측은 매우 중요하다. 본 논문에서는 인천공항의 출입국자 예측을 위하여 출입국자의 대부분을 차지하는 한국인과 중국인의 출국자의 예측 모델링을 수행하였다. 예측 모델링 정확도 향상을 위해 네이버와 바이두 검색 트렌드 데이터를 활용하였다. 출국자 수들과 관련 검색 트렌드 데이터 간 Granger Causality 테스트를 수행하여 상관관계가 있음을 확인하였다. "출국자 수" 단독으로 예측하는 것보다 "출국자 수"와 "검색어 트렌드" 자료를 합하여 예측하는 것이 정확도가 향상됨을 알 수 있었다. 이는 검색이 어떤 일을 수행하기 전에 하는 행위이기 때문이고, 검색 트렌드 데이터 내에 태생적으로 예측 기재가 존재함을 본 연구를 통하여 확인할 수 있었다.