• 산경연구논집
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• 제15권5호
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• pp.17-27
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• 2024

Purpose: The renminbi (RMB) has appreciated alongside the elevation of China's economic status, leading to increased exchange rate volatility. Moreover, China's medical industry saw a surge in import and export trade volume, with trade related to epidemic prevention and control in the medical sector significantly increasing its share. The medical device trade, in particular, occupies a substantial portion of this trade. Research design, data and methodology: This paper focuses on the import and export value of medical devices in the medical industry as a case study to explore the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the import and export trade of the medical industry during the pandemic. Additionally, it investigates whether the import and export trade of the medical industry can be a contributing factor to the fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate. Results: Through an empirical study on the import and export values of medical devices in the medical industry over the past three years, as well as the RMB exchange rate, this paper establishes a VAR model and conducts a series of tests including stationarity tests and cointegration tests. Conclusions: The conclusion is that fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate have a long-term impact on China's medical industry's import and export trade.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.251-272
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• 2010

본 연구의 목적은 패널중력모형을 이용하여 한국 자동차산업의 무역패턴을 분석해 보고, 지역경제권 가입이 한국의 무역에 미치는 효과를 실증적으로 분석하여 이에 따른 시사점을 도출하는데 있다. 본 연구의 분석한 결과에 의하면 한국의 자동차산업 교역은 상대국의 소득수준에 의거한 교역패턴(Per Capita Pattern)보다는 전반적 시장규모에 의거한 교역패턴(GDP Pattern)을 따르고 있음을 알 수 있다. 한편 자유무역협정 체결이 한국 자동차산업 교역규모에 미치는 영향을 살펴본 결과 자동차전체산업의 경우에는 교역이 약 179%, 자동차부품산업의 경우에는 교역이 약 198% 증가되는 무역창출효과가 관찰되었다. 결론적으로 한국 자동차산업의 단기적 교역증대를 위해서는 우선적으로 시장규모가 크고 지리적으로 근접한 국가와 교역하는 것이 더욱 유리할 것으로 예상된다. 그러나 근본적으로 한국 자동차산업의 국제경쟁력 향상을 통한 교역확대를 위해서는 자동차의 소형화 지능화 친환경화로 대변되는 자동차산업의 환경변화에 철저히 대비하고, 핵심기술 보유를 위한 정부와 민간기업의 선제적인 공략과 적극적인 투자가 절실히 요구된다고 할 수 있다.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.19-39
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• 2017

본 연구는 교역조건 수준과 변동성이 실질 GDP 및 인플레이션에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위해 OECD 26개국을 대상으로 1990년부터 2015년까지 실질 GDP, 인플레이션, 교역조건 등의 자료를 이용해 선형패널 및 동태패널모형을 설정하여 추정하였다. 분석결과 교역조건 수준과 변동성은 실질 GDP에 거의 영향을 미치지 않거나 통계적으로 유의하게 음(-)의 영향을 미치더라도 크기는 매우 작아 무시할 정도였다. 반면 교역조건 수준과 변동성은 모든 모형에서 동일한 결과를 얻은 것은 아니지만 대체로 인플레이션에 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 교역수준의 상승은 경상수지 흑자 또는 구매력을 상승시켜 총수요 증가를 통해 인플레이션을 야기하고 교역조건 변동성의 상승은 경제 내 불확실성을 확대시켜 불완전경쟁에 직면한 기업들로 하여금 현재 가격을 인상하도록 하여 인플레이션을 야기하는 것으로 판단된다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권10호
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• pp.159-168
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• 2022

The time series of foreign trade turnover is complex and variable and contains linear and nonlinear information. This paper proposes preprocessing the dataset by the EMD algorithm and combining the linear prediction advantage of the SARIMA model with the nonlinear prediction advantage of the EMD-LSTM model to construct the SARIMA-EMD-LSTM hybrid model by the weight assignment method. The forecast performance of the single models is compared with that of the hybrid models by using MAPE and RMSE metrics. Furthermore, it is confirmed that the weight assignment approach can benefit from the hybrid models. The results show that the SARIMA model can capture the fluctuation pattern of the time series, but it cannot effectively predict the sudden drop in foreign trade turnover caused by special reasons and has the lowest accuracy in long-term forecasting. The EMD-LSTM model successfully resolves the hysteresis phenomenon and has the highest forecast accuracy of all models, with a MAPE of 7.4304%. Therefore, it can be effectively used to forecast the Sino-Russia foreign trade turnover time series post-epidemic. Hybrid models cannot take advantage of SARIMA linear and LSTM nonlinear forecasting, so weight assignment is not the best method to construct hybrid models.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• 제4권4호
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• pp.33-40
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• 2014

Maximizing the profitability and minimizing the duration of construction projects in extreme weather regions is a challenging objective that is essential for project success. An optimization model is presented herein for the time-profit trade-off analysis of construction projects under extreme weather conditions. The model generates optimal/near optimal schedules that maximize profit and minimize the duration of construction projects in extreme weather regions. The computations in the model are organized into: (1) a scheduling module that develops practical schedules for construction projects, (2) a profit module that computes project costs (direct, indirect, and total) and project profit, and (3) a multi-objective module that determines optimal/near optimal trade-offs between project duration and profit. One example is used to show the impact of extreme weather on construction time and profit. Another example is used to show the model's ability to generate optimal trade-offs between the time and profit of construction projects under extreme weather conditions.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.115-137
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• 2005

E-trade is important that SMEs can do international business with activity. However, SMEs are facing psychological and economic barriers to e-trade. Therefore, SMEs depend on intermediaries for e-trading. In this context, APEC carried out the APEC Global B2B Interoperability Project to promote e-trade and increase benefits for member countries from 2002 to 2004. Especially this project emphasizes a collaboration with e-marketplaces. It has significance in that it is a new model to help SMEs do international trade. This study analyzes the APEC project in terms of technology and business and evaluates the project as a collaborative business model.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.83-107
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• 2014

This paper studies the effects of economic development and cultural proximity as common determinants of trade in cultural goods in a dynamic preference selection model. For the empirical analysis, this paper utilizes the gravity framework with importer fixed effects and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimators. This paper applies the model to Korean export of broadcasting contents to Asian countries. The relative economic development of the export country and the market size of the import country are important determinants of cultural trade, the results of which are generally consistent with traditional goods trade. However, the distance variable does not show much significance, reflecting the unique characteristics of trade in cultural goods.

• 무역학회지
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• 제44권3호
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• pp.155-170
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• 2019

This study examines the model of perceived risk, trust, and continuous transaction intentions presented in a study of the buying behavior in International Transaction. Although most of the trade transactions have been studied as a legal supplement, trade transactions are also purchasing behavior aimed at maintaining continuous transaction intentions between the parties. The study results confirmed that perceived risk could be separated into risk neutrality, risk - taking and risk aversion, and perceived risk had an effect on trust. In addition, the trust affected by perceived risk in the trade transaction model has a statistically significant effect on continuous transaction intentions. The study results confirm that the theoretical background used in previous studies of purchase behavior models is also effective in trade transaction.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.53-67
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• 2020

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to study strategic trade policies under international process research and development (R&D) competition with or without market leaders for free trade and a subsidy regime and compare the effects of R&D subsidies and export subsidies on the equilibrium levels of firm profit and social welfare. Design/methodology - For the analysis, we use previous work by Haaland and Kind (2008) and construct a differentiated goods duopoly model, wherein two firms compete via quantity in a third-country market for free trade and the subsidy regime. We consider simultaneous-move quantity competition when the two firms choose their quantities simultaneously and sequential-move quantity competition when they choose their quantities sequentially. The results are compared to those of Balboa, Daughety and Reinganum (2004), who studied export subsidies. Findings - The following are the findings. First, the results of firm preference orderings regarding firm position from Dowrick (1986) and Balboa, Daughety and Reinganum (2004) may not hold in our model when the firms' strategies are strategic substitutes under free trade. Second, the preference rankings under Cournot competition for free trade and a subsidy regime are the same as those in the strategic trade policy of export subsidy. Third, except for the cases of too close substitutes and complements, the results of firm and government preferences regarding firm position are different from those of Balboa, Daughety and Reinganum (2004) in that Stackelberg leadership in a subsidy regime is advantageous when the goods are substitutes but is disadvantageous when the goods are complements. Moreover, the equilibrium level of firm profit is the highest in the Cournot-Nash play when the goods are substitutes in a subsidy regime. Fourth, except for the cases of too close substitutes and complements, the results of firms' and their respective governments' trade regime preferences are similar to those of Balboa, Daughety and Reinganum (2004) in that a Stackelberg leader firm and government prefer free trade if the goods are substitutes and prefer a subsidy regime if the goods are complements. Furthermore, a Stackelberg follower firm and government strongly prefer a subsidy regime to free trade. Originality/value - By analyzing the effects of R&D subsidies and export subsidies in international markets, we can find similarities and differences between them in international markets.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제22권7호
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• pp.216-226
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• 2022

한중 FTA 협정 체결에 따라 새로운 상황에서 한중 양국의 전자제품 무역의 잠재력을 연구하는 것은 양국 전자제품 무역 발전을 추진하는 데 중대한 현실적 의의가 있다. 이를 토대로 본 연구에서는 2005년~2019년 한·중 전자제품 무역 관련 데이터를 선정해 확장된 무역 중력 모형을 통해 양국의 전자제품 무역 잠재력 요인을 분석한 뒤 양국의 전자제품 무역 잠재력 수치를 추산하고 비교하였다. 연구 결과 (1) 경제 규모, 인구 규모, APEC 회원국 여부가 한중 양국의 무역액 증가 역할을 하고 있음을 발견했다. 지리적 거리는 양국의 무역액을 억제하는 역할을 한다. 무역 자유도는 중국 전자제품의 무역액을 촉진하는데 눈에 띄는 역할을 하고 있고, 한국의 전자제품 무역에는 큰 영향이 없다. (2) 2015년 이후 중국의 대(對)한국 전자제품 수출은 잠재력이 크다. 한국의 대(對)중 전자제품 무역에 대한 잠재력도 어느 정도 있기 때문에 적극적인 정책을 통해 발굴이 필요하다.