• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.59-65
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• 2021

Electricity contributes to the development of the economy. Therefore, forecasting electricity demand plays an important role in the development of the electricity industry in particular and the economy in general. This study aims to provide a precise model for long-term electricity demand forecast in the residential sector by using three independent variables include: Population, Electricity price, Average annual income per capita; and the dependent variable is yearly electricity consumption. Based on the support of Multiple variable regression, the proposed method established a model with variables that relate to the forecast by ignoring variables that do not affect lead to forecasting errors. The proposed forecasting model was validated using historical data from Vietnam in the period 2013 and 2020. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, we presents a five-year demand forecast for the residential sector in Vietnam. When demand forecasts are performed using the predicted variables, the R square value measures model fit is up to 99.6% and overall accuracy (MAPE) of around 0.92% is obtained over the period 2018-2020. The proposed model indicates the population's impact on total national electricity demand.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.33-53
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• 2010

When purchase prices of a raw material fluctuate over time, the total purchasing cost is mainly affected by reordering time. Existing researches focus on deciding the right time when the demand for each period is replenished at the lowest cost. However, the decision is based on expected future prices which usually turn out to include some error. This discrepancy between expected prices and actual prices deteriorates the performance of inventory models dealing with fluctuating purchase prices. In this paper, we propose a new inventory model which incorporates not only cost but also risk into making up a replenishment schedule to meet each period's demand. For each replenishment schedule, the risk is defined to be the variance of its total cost. By introducing the risk into the objective function, the variability of the total cost can be mitigated, and eventually more stable replenishment schedule will be obtained. According to experimental results from crude oil inventory management, the proposed model showed better performance over other models in respect of variability and cost.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.47-57
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• 2014

The aim of this paper was to study the effect of five different waste combinations (C/N 15, C/N 20, C/N 25, C/N 30, and control) of sewage sludge coupled with sawdust and cattle manure in a pilot scale rotary drum reactor, during 20 days of the composting process. Our results showed that C/N 30 possesses a higher temperature regime with higher % reduction in moisture content, total organic carbon, soluble biochemical oxygen demand and chemical oxygen demand; and higher % gain in total nitrogen and phosphorus at the end of the composting period implying the total amount of biodegradable organic material is stabilized. In addition, $CO_2$ evolution and oxygen uptake rate decreased during the process, reflecting the stable behavior of the final compost. A Solvita maturity index of 8 indicated that the compost was stable and ready for usage as a soil conditioner. The results indicated that composting can be an alternate technology for the management of sewage sludge disposal.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.33 no.1 s.89
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• pp.23-30
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• 2000

n situ sediment oxygen demand (SOD), which takes place with the uptake of dissolved oxygen for biological metabolism and chemical oxidation in sediments, ranged from 1.57 to $12.55\;mg\;O_2\;m^{-2}\;h^{-1}$ in onshore of Lake Paldang from April to November 1999. SOD was influenced by the amount of organics and oxygen diffusion. Comparing the oxygen demands partitioning between overlying water and sediment during initial phase, SOD accounted for $63.8{\sim}94%$ of total oxygen demand in Lake Paldang. The chemical SOD and nitrogenous oxygen demand ranged $1.2{\sim}18.3%$ and $8.3{\sim}51.7%$ of total SOD, respectively. This result indicated that SOD in Lake Paldang occurred mainly by aerobic respiration and nitrification. Although the flow velocity could increase SOD within a certain limit, the effect of sediment depth on SOD was dependent on physicochemical properties of the sediment. This study showed that SOD can represent a significant portion of the total oxygen up-take in Lake Paldang. Therefore, the assessment of SOD might be necessary for the control of water quality.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.25 no.7
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• pp.819-826
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• 2019

To accurately forecast the supply and demand of harbor pilots, it is necessary to derive the determinants of demand because they are directly linked to securing the safety of ships and ports. The securing of an appropriate numbers of harbor pilots can create conflicts of interest among the pilots, the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, and users of pilotage services as it is also a matter directly related to harbor pilots' income. Therefore, a measure is needed to ensure a suitable number of pilots can be maintained, through which high quality pilotage services can be provided. This can be achieved by deriving reasonable determinants for estimating and forecasting demand, which satisfy all stakeholders involved in pilotage service. To reveal the challenges posed by the current determinants regarding the demand for harbor pilots used by the Central Pilotage Operation Council, and arrive at solutions, this study derived three determining factors, namely the total annual average piloting time, the average working hours of pilots, and the current number of pilots. These were used to determine the demand for harbor pilots. This study used a survey and analysis of current determining factors, a questionnaire survey administered to the interested parties, a case study of selected countries, and so on, as the research methodology.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.1-20
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• 2022

This study analyses how much Korean visits to North Korea have an impact on the North Korean regional economy. It estimates the demand for North Korean tourism via the borders of North Korea, China, and Russia and South Korean expenses to be spent in North Korea. When asked if they are willing to visit North Korea within the next five years in case the pre-conditions of the visit to North Korea are satisfied, approximately 64.1% of the survey respondents indicated 'yes'. To estimate the demand, this research employed the analysis of purchase intention, popular in marketing, based on their willingness to visit. The annual demand for tourism was 4,136,361 persons. The average estimated expense per person is KRW 1,532,000 and the total annual expense is KRW 6,336.9 billion. Assuming that airfare is excluded from the total expense and the expense is made evenly in each tourist destination, the estimated amount to be spent in North Korea is KRW 2,838.7 billion per annum. The backward linkage effect of this expense on the North Korean regional economy is KRW 7,972.1 billion in total production inducement, KRW 2,619.4 billion in value-added inducement, and approximately 2,890,443 persons in employment inducement. The value-added inducement effect is estimated to be approximately 7.6% of the North Korean nominal GDP in 2020. South Korean tourism is expected to have a significant impact on the North Korean economy. As the demand for North Korean tourism is likely to increase steadily due to the expected increase in overseas travel demand by Koreans, inter-Korean cooperation is needed for the development of North Korean tourism infrastructure if conditions improve.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.393-405
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• 1983

The demand for livestock and poultry products including beef, pork, chicken, egg and milk whose income elasticities are relatively higher than other staple foods, has been increased significantly during the past two decades in response to the remarkable increase in per capita GNP. This trend will be continued during the fifth and the sixth five year economic development plan period beginning with 1982. The annual GNP growth rate will be 7.5% on the average during the next 10 years. It is greatly needed to estimate the demand for beef, pork, chicken egg and milk and to study the feasibilities of domestic production of livestock products for the formulation of adequate policies in order to equate the consumption and the production during the 1980s. So this study reviewed the possible changes in the food consumption patterns during the 1980s, estimated the demand for beef, pork, chicken, egg and milk by using empirical demand functions and finally made suggestions for the formulation of long term price stabilization policies for each livestock, poultry and dairy products through the equilibrium of the quantity of demand for and supply of the products. There are many factors affecting the demand for meats, but this study considered own price, prices of supplements and substitutes and per capita income as the independent variables in the demand equations. It was found that it's own price and income were most significantly affecting factors among others and the degree of substitution effects were remarkably different among the products. According to the meat demand derived in this study, per capita consumption of beef, pork and chicken in the base year 1982 was 11.2kg for total meat, 2.5kg beef, 6.0kg pork and 2.5kg chicken, 106 pieces egg, 15.1kg milk respectively, while those in 1991 were 19.3kg for total meat, 4.8kg beef, 9.6kg pork, 4.9kg chicken, 133pieces egg and 44.1kg milk. It is also predicted through this study that, when the level of production costs be maintained, the domestic production of pork and chicken will meet the demand for them during the fifth and sixth five year economic plan period. However, there will be chronic shortage of beef supply during the coming years. The annual import requirement will be 30,000tons to 40,000tons during the period. In order to stabilize the domestic livestock and poultry and dairy products market, the government should introduce measures to curb the increase in beef consumption by encouraging the consumption of pork and chicken. For this, the livestock production policy measures should be concentrated on : 1) the improvement of infrastructures of beef production by introducing advanced feeding and management technology, subsidies for the establishment of facilities and price support programs for farmers : 2) the development of dairy beef : 3) the reinforcement of the forecast systems for pork and chicken production and consumption.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.69-83
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• 2011

This paper estimates demand functions of oyster as Kimchi's ingredients of capital area, other areas excluding a capital area, and a whole area in Korea to forecast its demand quantities in 2011~2015. To estimate oyster demand function, this paper uses pooled data produced from Korean housewives over 30 years old in 2009 and 2010. Also, this paper adopts several econometrics methods such as Ordinary Least Squares and Feasible Generalized Least Squares. First of all, to choose appropriate variables of oyster demand functions by area, this paper carries out model's specification with joint significance test. Secondly, to remedy heteroscedasticity with pooled data, this paper attempts residual plotting between estimated squared residuals and estimated dependent variable and then, if it happens, undertakes White test to care the problem. Thirdly, to test multicollinearity between variables with pooled data, this paper checks correlations between variables by area. In this analysis, oyster demand functions of a capital area and a whole area need price of the oyster, price of the cabbage for Gimjang, and income as independent variables. The function on other areas excluding a capital area only needs price of the oyster and income as ones. In addition, the oyster demand function of a whole area needed White test to care a heteroscedasticity problem and demand functions of the other two regions did not have the problem. Thus, first model was estimated by FGLS and second two models were carried out by OLS. The results suggest that oyster demand quantities per a household as Kimchi's ingredients are going to slightly increase in a capital area and a whole area, but slightly decrease in other areas excluding a capital area in 2011~2015. Also, the results show that oyster demand quantities as kimchi's ingredients for total household targeting housewives over 30 years old are going to slightly increase in three areas in 2011~2015.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.197-203
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• 2014

This study estimated spatial and seasonal variation of water quality to understand characteristics of Nakdong river basin, Korea. All together 11 parameters (discharge, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, 5-day biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, pH, suspended solids, electrical conductivity, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total organic carbon) at 22 different sites for the period of 2003-2011 were analyzed using multivariate statistical techniques (cluster analysis, principal component analysis and factor analysis). Hierarchical cluster analysis grouped whole river basin into three zones, i.e., relatively less polluted (LP), medium polluted (MP) and highly polluted (HP) based on similarity of water quality characteristics. The results of factor analysis/principal component analysis explained up to 83.0%, 81.7% and 82.7% of total variance in water quality data of LP, MP, and HP zones, respectively. The rotated components of PCA obtained from factor analysis indicate that the parameters responsible for water quality variations were mainly related to discharge and total pollution loads (non-point pollution source) in LP, MP and HP areas; organic and nutrient pollution in LP and HP zones; and temperature, DO and TN in LP zone. This study demonstrates the usefulness of multivariate statistical techniques for analysis and interpretation of multi-parameter, multi-location and multi-year data sets.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.18 no.33
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• pp.153-160
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• 1995

This paper presents the parallel-type inventory structure using an order-up-to level inventory control system for analyzing the approximation of the expected units backordered and the measure of service. The rate of total expected backorders which is the measure of disservise, is given by dividing the improved units of total expected backorder into the total demand during an order cycle. the average annual total cost in system is obtained by considering the results. Total backorder model for the system without redistribution and the system with redistribution is described.