• 조명전기설비학회논문지
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• 제23권8호
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• pp.14-20
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• 2009

본 논문에서는 배전 시스템을 구성하는 기기들에 대한 설치 현황자료와 고장 자료 및 전국 지점을 대상으로 한 설문조사 자료를 이용하여 기후별 고장률을 예측하였다. 같은 종류의 배전 설비라 하더라도 그 설비가 설치되어 있는 기후 상태에 따라서 고장률은 다르게 나타날 수 있다. 그러므로 배전기기의 고장률을 설비관리나 최적 투자 계획의 운용에 사용하기 위해서는 대상 설비가 설치된 기후 특성을 고려해야 하며 이를 위해 기후 특성을 고려한 고장률 예측이 요구된다고 할 수 있다. 기후특성분석을 위하여 한국전력공사의 전국지점을 대상으로 기후 특성(호우, 낙뢰, 강풍, 해일, 특징 없음)으로 구분하여 설문조사를 실시하였고 기후 특성에 따른 영향도를 분석하였고 고장률 추정 알고리즘을 제안하였다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.335-341
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• 2016

Interval censored failure time data often occurs in an observational study where a subject is followed periodically. Instead of observing an exact failure time, two inspection times that include it are made available. Several methods have been suggested to analyze interval censored failure time data (Sun, 2006). In this article, we are concerned with a binary time-varying covariate whose changing time is interval censored. A modified estimating equation is proposed by extending the approach suggested in the presence of a missing covariate. Based on simulation results, the proposed method shows a better performance than other simple imputation methods. ACTG 181 dataset were analyzed as a real example.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2006년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.9-11
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• 2006

This paper suggests a revision method for historical fault data using Proportional Aging Reduction(PAR) to consider maintenance effect in time-varying failure rate. In order to product time-varying failure rate, the historical fault data are necessary. However, the maintenance record could be left out in historical data by spot operator's mistake. In this case, the failure rate is produced less than the average failure rate for increasing equipments' life-time by maintenance effect. Hence, it is necessary for new time-varying failure rate to extract maintenance effect from the existing fault data. In this paper, the revision method to reduce equipments' life-time, adversely using PAR among three techniques to consider maintenance effect.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제55권11호
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• pp.476-484
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• 2006

The failure prediction and preventive maintenance for the equipment of nuclear power plant area using reliability-centered maintenance have been grown. On the other hand, the maintenance for power distribution system consists of time-based maintenance mainly. In this paper, the new maintenance algorithms for power distribution system are developed considering reliability indices. First of all, Time-varying failure rates are extracted from data accumulated at KEPCO using exponential distribution function and weibull distribution function. Next, based on the extracted failure rate, reliability for real power distribution system is evaluated for applying the effective maintenance algorithm which is the analytic method deciding the maintenance point of time and searching the feeder affecting the specific customer. Also the algorithm deciding the maintenance priority order are presented based on sensitivity analysis and equipment investment plan are analyzed through the presented algorithm at real power distribution system.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제54권11호
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• pp.548-556
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• 2005

Reliability evaluation of power distribution system is very important to both power utilities and customers. It present the probabilistic number and duration of interruption such as failure rate, SATDI, SAIFI, and CAIDI. However, it has a fatal weakness at reliability index because of accuracy of failure rate. In this paper, the Time-varying Failure Rate(TFR) of power distribution system equipment is extracted from the recorded failure data of KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation) in Korea. For TFR extraction, it is used that the fault data accumulated by KEPCO during 10 years. The TFR is approximated to bathtub curve using the exponential(random failure) and Weibull(aging failure) distribution function. In addition, Kaplan-Meier estimation is applied to TFR extraction because of incomplete failure data of KEPCO. Finally, Probability plot and regression analysis is applied. It is presented that the extracted TFR is more effective and useful than Mean Failure Rate(MfR) through the comparison between TFR and MFR

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2008년도 추계학술대회A
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• pp.1331-1336
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• 2008

This paper suggests a method using Bayesian inference to estimate the parameters of Weibull distribution and acceleration parameters under the condition that the stresses are time-dependent functions. A Bayesian model based on the discrete time approximation is formulated to infer the parameters of interest from the failure data of the virtual tests and a statistical analysis is considered to decide the most probable mean values of the parameters for reasoning of the failure data.

• 전기학회논문지P
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• 제59권2호
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• pp.154-157
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• 2010

In this paper, the Time-varying Failure Rates(TFR) of power distribution system components are extracted from the recorded failure data of KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation) and the reliability of power distribution system is evaluated using Mean Failure Rate(MFR) and TFR. The TFR is approximated to bathtub curve using the exponential and Weibull distribution function. In addition, Kaplan-Meier estimation is applied to TFR extraction because of incomplete failure data of KEPCO. Also the reliability of the real power distribution system of Korea is evaluated using the MFR and TFR extracted from real failure data, respectively and the results of each case are compared with each other. As a result, it is proved that the reliability evaluation using the TFR is more realistic than MFR. In addition, it is presented that the application method at power distribution system maintenance and repair using the result of TFR.

• 산업기술연구
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• 제27권B호
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• pp.245-253
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• 2007

Failure rate serves as a pivotal role in reliability study. Of all, the constant failure rate is the most popularly used in field exercises. In reality, however, the electrical and electronic parts' life is represented by not only the constant failure rate but the decreasing and/or increasing failure rates. Explicit consideration and incorporation of them into the model development may yield more desirable results. In this study, we built a reliability model for failure rates varying over time intervals and derived well known measures such as probability density function, reliability function, mean life, moments, and mission time. We then evaluated mean life with consideration of the first-year multiplier and compared the results those with constant failure rate. The results given in the study may provide a reference applying for practical decision making.

• 한국정보전자통신기술학회논문지
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.77-84
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• 2017

회전하는 기계시스템에서는 일반적으로 시변 진동신호가 발생되며, 회전기에 고장이 있는 경우 이 신호에 잡음이 포함된다. 본 논문에서는 잡음이 포함된 시변 진동신호를 분해하기 위한 적응예측기와 이진트리구조 필터뱅크로 구성되는 시스템을 제안한다. 그리고 이 시스템에서 분석된 진동신호 결과를 회전기 고장진단에 활용할 수 있음을 보인다. 제안 시스템 적응 예측기는 주기신호성분을 예측하며, 필터뱅크 시스템에서는 입력신호와 예측된 주기신호와의 차 신호를 부밴드 대역으로 분해한다. 각 부밴드 신호에는 고장에 따른 잡음 신호성분이 포함되므로, 이를 이용 회전기의 고장진단이 가능하다. 제안한 신동신호분석 방법의 타당성을 시뮬레이션에서 보이며, 시뮬레이션에서는 주기신호 성분이 제거된 진동신호를 32 부밴드로 분해하여 고장관련 신호 특성을 분석한다.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2003년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.272-274
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• 2003

Distribution system reliability evaluation estimates by approach methods such as Makove modelling or Monte Carlo simulation, equation of state and failure rate that is on one basic data used to these assessment technique is described as probability of average value. because average failure rate equipment device is aged as time goes by but there is shortcoming that such used failure rate does not evaluate thing which is correct in reliability change hereafter. In this paper, failure rate displayed that apply aging to basis equipment device by passing time using Weibull distribution one of life evaluation method and for express aging of component from utility's failure database.