• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time Series Data Analysis

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Land Use Changes and Climate Patterns in Southeast Korea (우리나라 동남부 지역의 토지 이용과 기후 패턴 변화 분석)

  • Park, Sun-Yurp;Tak, Han-Myeong
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.47-64
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    • 2013
  • Landscape structure changes over the past three decades were determined with land use and land cover(LULC) maps, and their relationships with mean air temperature time series were the analyzed for the Busan metropolitan area and South Kyeongsang Province, Korea. The geometric structures of the LULC data were quantitatively represented based on FRAGSTATS, a spatial pattern analysis program for quantifying landscape structure. FRAGSTATS-derived landscape metrics confirmed that there were major changes in LULC and landscape fragmentation in the region. Meteorological observation records showed that mean air temperature had increased from $14.1^{\circ}C$ in the 1990's to $14.8^{\circ}C$ in the 2000's in Busan. For South Kyeongsang Province, they increased from $13.2^{\circ}C$ to $13.9^{\circ}C$ during the same time period. These long-term temperature changes are correlated with typical spatial pattern changes of LULC in the southeastern region of the country. Spatial metrics analysis showed that urban area expanded from 9.7% to 26.8% of Busan while forest and agricultural land decreased by 9.6% and 14.9%, respectively over the past thirty years. The significant urbanization are tightly associated with deforestation, removal of agricultural land, and fast temperature increases since the 1990's. The urban area of South Kyeongsang Province rapidly increased, and it became 12 times as large as it was. The degree of temperature increases differed among three different sub-regions. The temperature increasing rate was lowest in the coastal region while the colder mountainous region had the highest figure.

A Study on the Characteristics of Underwater Sound Transmission by Short-term Variation of Sound Speed Profiles in Shallow-Water Channel with Thermocline (수온약층이 존재하는 천해역에서 단기간 음속구조 변화에 따른 음향 신호 전달 변동에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Dong-Yeong;Kim, Sea-Moon;Byun, Sung-Hoon;Lim, Yong-Kon
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.20-35
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    • 2015
  • Underwater acoustic channel impulse responses (CIR) are influenced by sound speed profile (SSP), and the variation of CIR has significant effects on the performance of underwater acoustic communication systems. A significant change of SSP can occur within a short period, which must be considered during the design of underwater acoustic modems. This paper statistically analyzes the effect of the variation of SSP on the long-range acoustic signal propagation in shallow-water with thermocline using numerical modeling based on the data acquired from JACE13 experiment near Jeju island. The analysis result shows that CIR changes variously according to the SSP and the depth of the transmitter and receiver. We also found that when the transmitter and receiver are deeper, the variation of sound wave propagation pattern is smaller and signal level becomes higher. All CIR obtained in this study show that a series of bottom reflections due to downward refraction and small bottom loss in the shallow water with thermocline can be very important factor for long-range signal transmission and the performance of underwater acoustic communication system in time varying ocean environment can be very sensitive to the variation of SSP even for a short period of time.

The Effect of Macroeconomic and Real Estate Policies on Seoul's Apartment Prices (거시경제와 부동산정책이 서울 아파트가격에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Bae, Jong-Chan;Chung, Jae-Ho
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.41-59
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    • 2021
  • This study reviews theoretical considerations and past studies about real estate prices, macroeconomic variables, and real estate policies. Monthly data from January 2003 to June 2021 are used, and a VEC model, the most widely used multivariate time series analysis method, is employed for analysis. Through the model, the effects of macroeconomic variables and real estate regulatory policies on real estate prices in Seoul are analyzed. Findings are summarized as follows. First, macroeconomic variables such as money supply and interest rates do not have a significant impact on Seoul's apartment prices. Due to the high demand for housing and insufficient supply, there is a demand for buying a home regardless of macroeconomic booms or recessions. Second, tax and financial regulatory policies have an initial impact on the rise in apartment prices in Seoul, and their influence diminishes over time. Third, anti-speculation zones are expected to decrease apartment prices through the suppression of demand. However, these zones cause a rise in apartment prices. This could be understood as a lock-in effect due to the strengthening of capital gains tax. Fourth, the price ceiling did not decrease apartment prices. These findings propose that, in Seoul, where demand is high and supply is insufficient, the supply of high-quality and sufficient housing should be prioritized over various regulations such as tax regulations, financial regulations, anti-speculation zones, and price caps. Moreover, the findings provide an implication that city-specific real estate policies should be implemented for Seoul rather than regulation-oriented approaches in public policy.

Atmospheric Correction Effectiveness Analysis of Reflectance and NDVI Using Multispectral Satellite Image (다중분광위성자료의 대기보정에 따른 반사도 및 식생지수 분석)

  • Ahn, Ho-yong;Na, Sang-il;Park, Chan-won;So, Kyu-ho;Lee, Kyung-do
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.34 no.6_1
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    • pp.981-996
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    • 2018
  • In agriculture, remote sensing data using earth observation satellites have many advantages over other methods in terms of time, space, and efficiency. This study analyzed the changes of reflectance and vegetation index according to atmospheric correction of images before using satellite images in agriculture. Top OF Atmosphere (TOA) reflectance and surface reflectance through atmospheric correction were calculated to compare the reflectance of each band and Normalized Vegetation difference Index (NDVI). As a result, the NDVI observed from field measurement sensors and satellites showed a higher agreement and correlation than the TOA reflectance calculated from surface reflectance using atmospheric correction. Comparing NDVI before and after atmospheric correction for multi-temporal images, NDVI increased after atmospheric corrected in all images. garlic and onion cultivation area and forest where the vegetation health was high area NDVI increased more 0.1. Because the NIR images are included in the water vapor band, atmospheric correction is greatly affected. Therefore, atmospheric correction is a very important process for NDVI time-series analysis in applying image to agricultural field.

Introduction of Inverse Analysis Model Using Geostatistical Evolution Strategy and Estimation of Hydraulic Conductivity Distribution in Synthetic Aquifer (지구통계학적 진화전략 역산해석 기법의 소개 및 가상 대수층 수리전도도 분포 예측에의 적용)

  • Park, Eungyu
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.703-713
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    • 2020
  • In many geological fields, including hydrogeology, it is of great importance to determine the heterogeneity of the subsurface media. This study briefly introduces the concept and theory of the method that can estimate the hydraulic properties of the media constituting the aquifer, which was recently introduced by Park (2020). After the introduction, the method was applied to the synthetic aquifer to demonstrate the practicality, from which various implications were drawn. The introduced technique uses a global optimization technique called the covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy (CMA-ES). Conceptually, it is a methodology to characterize the aquifer heterogeneity by assimilating the groundwater level time-series data due to the imposed hydraulic stress. As a result of applying the developed technique to estimate the hydraulic conductivity of a hypothetical aquifer, it was confirmed that a total of 40000 unknown values were estimated in an affordable computational time. In addition, the results of the estimates showed a close numerical and structural similarity to the reference hydraulic conductivity field, confirming that the quality of the estimation by the proposed method is high. In this study, the developed method was applied to a limited case, but it is expected that it can be applied to a wider variety of cases through additional development of the method. The development technique has the potential to be applied not only to the field of hydrogeology, but also to various fields of geology and geophysics. Further development of the method is currently underway.

Analysis and Forecasting of Daily Bulk Shipping Freight Rates Using Error Correction Models (오차교정모형을 활용한 일간 벌크선 해상운임 분석과 예측)

  • Ko, Byoung-Wook
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.129-141
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzes the dynamic characteristics of daily freight rates of dry bulk and tanker shipping markets and their forecasting accuracy by using the error correction models. In order to calculate the error terms from the co-integrated time series, this study uses the common stochastic trend model (CSTM model) and vector error correction model (VECM model). First, the error correction model using the error term from the CSTM model yields more appropriate results of adjustment speed coefficient than one using the error term from the VECM model. Furthermore, according to the adjusted determination coefficients (adjR2), the error correction model of CSTM-model error term shows more model fitness than that of VECM-model error term. Second, according to the criteria of mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute scaled error (MASE) which measure the forecasting accuracy, the results show that the error correction model with CSTM-model error term produces more accurate forecasts than that of VECM-model error term in the 12 cases among the total 15 cases. This study proposes the analysis and forecast tasks 1) using both of the CSTM-model and VECM-model error terms at the same time and 2) incorporating additional data of commodity and energy markets, and 3) differentiating the adjustment speed coefficients based the sign of the error term as the future research topics.

Analysis of National Stream Drying Phenomena using DrySAT-WFT Model: Focusing on Inflow of Dam and Weir Watersheds in 5 River Basins (DrySAT-WFT 모형을 활용한 전국 하천건천화 분석: 전국 5대강 댐·보 유역의 유입량을 중심으로)

  • LEE, Yong-Gwan;JUNG, Chung-Gil;KIM, Won-Jin;KIM, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2020
  • The increase of the impermeable area due to industrialization and urban development distorts the hydrological circulation system and cause serious stream drying phenomena. In order to manage this, it is necessary to develop a technology for impact assessment of stream drying phenomena, which enables quantitative evaluation and prediction. In this study, the cause of streamflow reduction was assessed for dam and weir watersheds in the five major river basins of South Korea by using distributed hydrological model DrySAT-WFT (Drying Stream Assessment Tool and Water Flow Tracking) and GIS time series data. For the modeling, the 5 influencing factors of stream drying phenomena (soil erosion, forest growth, road-river disconnection, groundwater use, urban development) were selected and prepared as GIS-based time series spatial data from 1976 to 2015. The DrySAT-WFT was calibrated and validated from 2005 to 2015 at 8 multipurpose dam watershed (Chungju, Soyang, Andong, Imha, Hapcheon, Seomjin river, Juam, and Yongdam) and 4 gauging stations (Osucheon, Mihocheon, Maruek, and Chogang) respectively. The calibration results showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.76 in average (0.66 to 0.84) and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.62 in average (0.52 to 0.72). Based on the 2010s (2006~2015) weather condition for the whole period, the streamflow impact was estimated by applying GIS data for each decade (1980s: 1976~1985, 1990s: 1986~1995, 2000s: 1996~2005, 2010s: 2006~2015). The results showed that the 2010s averaged-wet streamflow (Q95) showed decrease of 4.1~6.3%, the 2010s averaged-normal streamflow (Q185) showed decreased of 6.7~9.1% and the 2010s averaged-drought streamflow (Q355) showed decrease of 8.4~10.4% compared to 1980s streamflows respectively on the whole. During 1975~2015, the increase of groundwater use covered 40.5% contribution and the next was forest growth with 29.0% contribution among the 5 influencing factors.

A Phenology Modelling Using MODIS Time Series Data in South Korea (MODIS 시계열 자료(2001~2011) 및 Timesat 알고리즘에 기초한 남한 지역 식물계절 분석)

  • Kim, Nam-Shin;Cho, Yong-Chan;Oh, Seung-Hwan;Kwon, Hye-Jin;Kim, Gyung-Soon
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.186-193
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    • 2014
  • This study aimed to analyze spatio-temporal trends of phenological characteristics in South Korea by using MODIS EVI. For the phenology analysis, we had applied double logistic function to MODIS time-series data. Our results showed that starting date of phenology seems to have a tendency along with latitudinal trends. Starting date of phenology of Jeju Island and Mt. Sobeak went back for 0.38, 0.174 days per year, respectively whereas, Mt. Jiri and Mt. Seolak went forward for 0.32 days, 0.239 days and 0.119 days, respectively. Our results exhibited the fluctuation of plant phonological season rather than the change of phonological timing and season. Starting date of plant phenology by spatial distribution revealed tendency that starting date of mountain area was late, and basin and south foot of mountain was fast. In urban ares such as Seoul metropolitan, Masan, Changwon, Milyang, Daegu and Jeju, the phonological starting date went forward quickly. Pheonoligcal attributes such as starting date and leaf fall in urban areas likely being affected from heat island effect and related warming. Our study expressed that local and regional monitoring on phonological events and changes in Korea would be possible through MODIS data.

Influences of Temperature Change Rates and Impervious Surfaces on the Intra-City Climatic Patterns of Busan Metropolitan Area (부산광역시 국지적 기후 패턴에 대한 기온변화율과 불투수면의 영향)

  • PARK, Sun-Yurp
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.199-217
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    • 2016
  • Influences of seasonal warming and cooling rates on the annual temperature patterns were analyzed based on the meteorological data from 13 weather stations in Busan Metropolitan Area(BMA), Korea during 1997~2014. BMA daily temperature time-series was generalized by Fourier analysis, which mathematically summarizes complex, regularly sampled periodic records, such as air temperature, into a limited number of major wave components. Local monthly warming and cooling rates of BMA were strongly governed by the ocean effect within the city. March($1.121^{\circ}C/month$) and November(-$1.564^{\circ}C/month$) were the two months, when the most rapid warming and cooling rates were observed, respectively during the study period. Geographically, spring warming rates of inland increased more rapidly compared to coastal areas due to weaker ocean effect. As a result, the annual maximum temperature was reached earlier in a location, where the annual temperature range was larger, and therefore its July mean temperature and continentality were higher. Interannual analyses based on average temperature data of all weather stations also showed that the annual maximum temperature tended to occur earlier as the city's July mean temperature increased. Percent area of impervious surfaces, an indicator of urbanization, was another contributor to temperature change rates of the city. Annual mean temperature was positively correlated with percent area of impervious surfaces, and the variations of monthly warming and cooling rates also increased with percent area of impervious surfaces.

A Study on the Related Factors of Skipping Breakfast in Elementary Students (초등학생 아침결식 실태 및 관련요인)

  • Bang, You-Mi;Lee, Moo-Sik;Na, Baek-Ju;Kim, Keon-Yeop
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.17-35
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    • 2006
  • Objectives: This study was conducted to investigate the determining factors that have influence on elementary students who go without breakfast and identified their physical, mental and social health that may resulted by skipping breakfast. Methods: For data collection, total 855 elementary students at the 5th and 6th grade in an urban and a rural area were asked to join the survey using a self-administered questionnaire from March 25 to April 9, 2005. The data were analyzed through a series of statistical methods including frequency, percentage, chi-square$(X^2)$ test, t-test and multiple logistic regression analysis. Results: It was found that 24.0 % of respondents would skip breakfast, and influential socioeconomic factors on their skipped breakfast were economic level and mother's occupation. A group that has meals more with family everyday and a group that has breakfast served by mother as usual showed significantly low percentage of going without breakfast at statistical level(p<0.05). In case that other family members used to go without breakfast, there was a tendency to significantly high rate of skipped breakfast(p<0.01). And a group who got up early in the morning and a group who scored high points in the assessment of dietary habit showed significantly low percentage of skipped breakfast(p<0.01). In the result of multiple logistic regression analysis, the significant variables in urban area were economic level, person setting up breakfast, getting-up time and family members who would skip a meal. In rural area, meal-skipping family member, person setting up breakfast and dietary habit were significant variables(p<0.05). In physical influences according to skipping breakfast, students would skip breakfast had more stomach or dizziness(p<0.05). Depression score were higher and school life score were lower in group skipping breakfast, but not statistically significant. Conclusions: In conclusion, in order to reduce the rate of elementary students who often go without breakfast, it is favorable that they should be instructed in the importance of breakfast and the harm of skipped meal, so that they can cultivate positive living habits and dietary attitudes as well. And it is necessary that this health education cover not only students but also all of their family members(especially mother). Furthermore, it is necessary to develop systematic programs for them to get over environment factors.