• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time Lag Regression

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R&D and Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: CO2 Case (R&D 투자와 환경쿠즈네츠 곡선 가설: CO2 사례 분석)

  • Kang, Heechan;Hwang, Sangyeon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.89-112
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, as a determining factor of the Environment Kuznets Curve hypothesis, we analyzed the impact of technological innovation. In this paper, in order to empirically validate the role of technological innovation to an inverted U-shaped Environments Kuznets Curve hypothesis, we utilize the 2SLS considering relationship between R&D and the GDP per capita. Also, using the Panel VAR (Panel Vector Auto Regression) model to analyze with what time lag R&D per capita has impact on the emissions of greenhouse gases per capita. Empirical results show that R&D per capita(proxy of innovation) is a important factor to explain Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, and that the external shock such as R&D per capita reduces greenhouse gas emissions per capita with about 3 time lag.

Data Driven Approach to Forecast Water Turnover (데이터 탐색 기법 활용 전도현상 예측모형)

  • Kwon, Sehyug
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.90-96
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    • 2018
  • This paper proposed data driven techniques to forecast the time point of water management of the water reservoir without measuring manganese concentration with the empirical data as Juam Dam of years of 2015 and 2016. When the manganese concentration near the surface of water goes over the criteria of 0.3mg/l, the water management should be taken. But, it is economically inefficient to measure manganese concentration frequently and regularly. The water turnover by the difference of water temperature make manganese on the floor of water reservoir rise up to surface and increase the manganese concentration near the surface. Manganese concentration and water temperature from the surface to depth of 20m by 5m have been time plotted and exploratory analyzed to show that the water turnover could be used instead of measuring manganese concentration to know the time point of water management. Two models for forecasting the time point of water turnover were proposed and compared as follow: The regression model of CR20, the consistency ratio of water temperature, between the surface and the depth of 20m on the lagged variables of CR20 and the first lag variable of max temperature. And, the Box-Jenkins model of CR20 as ARIMA (2, 1, 2).

Prediction Models of Residual Chlorine in Sediment Basin to Control Pre-chlorination in Water Treatment Plant (정수장 전염소 공정 제어를 위한 침전지 잔류 염소 농도 예측모델 개발)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hyuk;Kim, Ju-Hwan;Lim, Jae-Lim;Chae, Seon Ha
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.601-607
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    • 2007
  • In order to maintain constant residual chlorine in sedimentation basin, It is necessary to develop real time prediction model of residual chlorine considering water treatment plant data such as water qualities, weather, and plant operation conditions. Based on the operation data acquired from K water treatment plant, prediction models of residual chlorine in sediment basin were accomplished. The input parameters applied in the models were water temperature, turbidity, pH, conductivity, flow rate, alkalinity and pre-chlorination dosage. The multiple regression models were established with linear and non-linear model with 5,448 data set. The corelation coefficient (R) for the linear and non-linear model were 0.39 and 0.374, respectively. It shows low correlation coefficient, that is, these multiple regression models can not represent the residual chlorine with the input parameters which varies independently with time changes related to weather condition. Artificial neural network models are applied with three different conditions. Input parameters are consisted of water quality data observed in water treatment process based on the structure of auto-regressive model type, considering a time lag. The artificial neural network models have better ability to predict residual chlorine at sediment basin than conventional linear and nonlinear multi-regression models. The determination coefficients of each model in verification process were shown as 0.742, 0.754, and 0.869, respectively. Consequently, comparing the results of each model, neural network can simulate the residual chlorine in sedimentation basin better than mathematical regression models in terms of prediction performance. This results are expected to contribute into automation control of water treatment processes.

Analysis of Business Cycle Factors and Occupational Accidents in Construction Industry (건설업 산업재해 발생의 경기적 요인 분석 연구)

  • Myungjoong, Kim;Sunyoung, Park
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.32-39
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    • 2022
  • This study analyzed the relationship between occupational accidents in the construction industry and business cycle factors. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to achieve the research purpose; additionally, time-varying parameter estimations were performed to interpret the results. The results obtained for the construction industry revealed a statistically significant relationship between occupational accidents and wage increase rate, unemployment, construction starts, and other factors. The wage increase rate plays a role in reducing occupational accidents because efforts are made to prevent accidents owing to the increase in income loss due to accidents and the demand for increased safety levels. The number of construction starts affects occupational accidents with a time lag of 1 to 2 or 4 months; therefore, it is likely to be used as a leading indicator for estimating fatal accidents in the construction industry. This study highlighted the importance of monitoring socioeconomic changes that could affect the working conditions of workers and workplaces, and production activities in the workplace for the effective prevention of occupational accidents. This study also reveals the necessity of developing a method to operate prevention projects flexibly and the seasonality of industrial characteristics, particularly those of the construction industry where the highest number of fatal occupational injuries occur.

Comparative Analysis of Existing Synthetic Unit Hydrograph in Korea (국내기존 합성단위유량도 비교분석)

  • 전시영
    • Water for future
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.97-109
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    • 1994
  • Parameters for the Synthetic Unit Hydrograph(SUH) using SCS and v methods(including modified type) are derived by regression analysis of the Representative Unit Hydrograph(RUH) of 22 basins in Korea. These derived SUHs were compared with the RUHs and those of Snyder and HYMO given by the Korea Institute of Construction Technology (KICT) for selected 4 basins. In SCS method, when correlated with the lag time of SUHs based on the whole basin rather than on the riverwise basins the peak discharge(excluding Bocheng stream) is close to that of RUH. BUt the peak time given by riverwise basins agrees closer to the RUH than by the whole basins. The modified Nakayasu type SUH(excluding Wi stream) associated with lag time based on riverwise basins gives better agreements to the RUH than that of Nakayasu method. And the modified Nakayasu type SUH gives much better agreement to the RUH than that of Nakayasu method for the case of both whole and riverwise basins.

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The Determinants of Population Health in OECD countries (OECD 국가들의 건강수준 결정요인)

  • Tchoe, Byong-Ho;Nam, Sang-Ho
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2010
  • This article examines social determinants of population health in OECD countries, where life years, infant mortality, and PYLL are used as proxy variables of health. The unit of analysis is a country which is the OECD affiliate. A panel regression estimation is chosen as a method, using OECD Health Data. The results are: the increasing national health expenditure affected positively to improve population health. Education was rather a significant determinant of health than income level. The government direct investment for public health did not contribute positively to enhance population health. The expansion of health care coverage was working positively for improving health, but with a time lag. The supply of doctors was a most influential determinant of health. In case of Korea, the coverage expansion of health care was the most important determinant of health. The supply of doctors was, however, not a positive factor for better health, which is different result with the case of OECD countries.

A Study on the Relationship between Economic Change and Air Passenger Demand: Focus on Incheon International Airport (경제환경 변화와 항공여객 수요 간의 관계 분석: 인천국제공항을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Seok;Shin, Tae-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.52-64
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables on air passenger demand and provide useful information to airport managers and policymakers. Therefore, using the quarterly macroeconomic indicators from 2002 to 2017, the relationship with air passenger demand was demonstrated by multiple regression analysis. In the previous studies, they used GDP, Korea Treasury Bond, KOSPI index, USD/KRW Exchange Rate, and WTI Crude Oil Price variables. In this study, we used the Coincident Composite Index, Employment Rate, Consumer Sentiment Index, and Private Consumption Rate used as additional variables. It has confirmed that if the consumption of research results expands or the economic environment is right, it will affect the increase in international passengers. In other words, it confirmed that the overall economic situation acts as the main factor determining air passenger demand. It confirmed that the economic environment at the past has a significant impact on air passenger demand.

The Impact of Audit Characteristics on Firm Performance: An Empirical Study from an Emerging Economy

  • Rahman, Md. Musfiqur;Meah, Mohammad Rajon;Chaudhory, Nasir Uddin
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.59-69
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    • 2019
  • The auditor, an important instrument of corporate governance, ensures the transparency and accountability of the firm to the stakeholders. The objective of this paper is to explore the impact of audit characteristics on firm performance. In this study, external audit quality (BIG4), frequencies of audit committee meetings, and audit committee size are used as the proxies of audit characteristics and firm performance is measured through ROA, profit margin and EPS. A total of 503 firm years are considered as sample size from the listed manufacturing firms of Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) during the period of 2013 to 2017 to find out the impact of audit characteristics on firm performance. In this study, multivariate regression analysis is conducted using the pooled OLS method. Moreover, time dummy and lag model of multivariate analysis are also analyzed as robust check. The multivariate regression results find that external audit quality (BIG4) and audit committee size are significantly positively associated with firm performance. This study also finds that there is a significant negative relationship between audit committee meeting and firm performance. This study recommends that the regulatory authority and audit committee should review the frequencies of audit committee meeting to make it more effective to ensure better firm performance.

The Impact of Microfinance Programs on Borrowers' Asset Accumulation: An Empirical Study in Bangladesh

  • AHAMAD, Shamsuddin;BHUIYAN, Abul Bashar;SOLAIMAN, Mohammad;JOARDER, Mohd Hasanur Raihan
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.1147-1154
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    • 2021
  • The study aimed to investigate the impact of the microfinance program on loan borrowers' asset accumulation. In doing this, the study used descriptive and statistical methods to achieve the objectives. Primary data were collected from 192 respondents from Bangladesh using survey questionnaires. The data were analyzed using the multiple linear regression model. The result revealed that the majority of the borrowers said their assets such as farm, land, and livestock remained the same, which implies that microfinance borrowers still lag behind accumulating household assets. However, in the case of housing conditions and household appliances, there was a marginal increase. The regression result provides evidence that, among other factors, the amount of loan received from microfinance institutions and time duration with them is the most significant role-playing factor for borrower's sustainable well-being. The age and education level of borrowers are identified as positively related to asset accumulations, but not substantially so. Moreover, training provided by microfinance institutions is not effective and influential for microfinance borrowers' wealth accumulation, which is evidenced by the findings. This study's insights are worthwhile for any microfinance institution's decision-makers, development partners, and government to stress the shortcomings and accelerate the borrower's wealth status.

Effects Of Atmospheric Pressure And Wind Stress On Daily Mean Sea Level In The Bay Of Biscay. Analysis Of Continental Shelf Waves

  • Lie, Heung-Jae
    • 한국해양학회지
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 1979
  • The barometric factor is estimated at five stations in the Bay of Biscay from the linear regression between daily mean sea level and atmospheric pressure. The results show that the adjusted sea level change is important in amplitude in spite of the barometric response of the sea level to the atmospheric pressure. The cross-correlations between adjusted sea levels and the two components of wind stress suggest that the adjusted sea level is highly related to the longshore wind stress. The observed phase and the time lag between adjusted sea levels at adjacent stations aree consistent with the hypothesis of the northward travelling continental shelf waves.

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